NEwxguy's WunderBlog

Nor'easter for the future

By: NEwxguy, 1:21 PM GMT on October 29, 2012

so we have another nor'easter on the horizon.Nothing like Sandy,but still could be quite the weather maker for the northeast.Something none of the hard hit areas need at this time.The models all point to a coastal storm forming around Monday along the southeast coast and moving up the coast.
This could cause very windy conditions and heavy rains,as well as some snow on the western and northern edges of the precip especially in higher elevations.We'll have to watch this as a high pressure situates itself in the maritimes which is a classic position to pull down cold air into a system.

November 01
So we enter a new month.October turned out to be much about normal,almost 4 degrees above normal.Rainfall was going to be below normal,but Sandy pushed me about 3/4 of an inch above normal.
November normally brings us rushing toward winter.Starts out in the 50's,but generally ends in the 40's on average,but can be much colder toward the end of the month.Snow chances increase,but any day is possible.
Daylight savings time ends on Sunday,with the sunset at 4.33 p.m.Goodbye evenings.
More significant for me,is I turn 65(whispering)!!!
That just seems unbelievable to me,don't feel it,well at sometimes I don't feel it,actually alot of times I feel much older.After this remodeling project I'll feel like 85.Actually feel pretty good,so not going to worry about that age
We had quite a few trick or treaters last night,had to go over to the neighbors to borrow some candy.
So Happy November everyone.Still feeling the effects of what was once Hurr. Sandy,ptly to mstly cloudy,risk of some showers moving in this afternoon,I think they will be mostly light.

October 31
Happy Halloween to all.
We still have Sandy hanging around for trick or treat,except with her there is no treat.Such devastation up and down the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Here in New England not as bad as New York and New Jersey,but significant tree damage and power still out.My daughter still waiting for her power to return.Walked around neighborhood several trees down.Yard is a mess with my pine tree and leaves and branches everywhere,but not going to complain with the pictures I see on the news,I've made it through pretty easy.
So she is still drifting NE in Western New York moving into eastern Canada over the next couple of days.Her huge circulation still wrapping moisture around,on her west and southwest sides there is snow,a lot in the higer elevations.We will be turning colder over the next few days,we were 55 degrees this morning while raleigh NC was 38,strange strange weather.

Well,this has been quite the hyped storm,and it we'll have to wait and see if it lives up to all this hype,but hopefully everyone is ready for this and people who are along the coast either evacuated or are in a safe place.
Currently here in metro Boston,its breezy and winds have been slowly picking up,currently 10 to 20 with a few slightly higher gusts and and off and on showers.Our critical time will be from noon to late evening.I am working from home today as our office is closed,will stay online as long as the power stays on.
As I look at the radar and sallelites,this is an amazing storm,we can only hope it falls short of the predictions.


By: NEwxguy, 2:13 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

October 25th,
So the idea that Sandy may curve out to sea,seems very remote at this time,HWRF still holds on to that idea as well as some ensemble models,but the majority of models have it making landfall somewhere from Delaware to Nova Scotia. Obviously where landfall occurs will determine as specific areas impact,we may not know this until Saturday.
As you've probably already heard on multiple media outlets and different blogs,this is an historic event.I've been following weather since I was a kid,we won't discuss how long ago that was,but don't recall anything like this before.It really is one of the most amazing setups I've ever seen.
All we can do is hope the phasing doesn't take place with the jet stream and what ever shape Sandy is in as it move north.

October 24th
GM,all WU friends. Well,I am not closer to making an opinion where Sandy is going after she reaches the Bahamas.Models continue to split their tracks,The GFS out to sea,the ECMWF and NGP into the northeast,and neither are wavering on their tracks.And if you follow bloggers,you get just as wide an opinion,so its just another day of watching.
We probably won't know until Saturday whether the Northeast gets slammed or escapes.

TS Sandy has formed in the Southern Carribean,and all models head it north through the week,over eastern Cuba into the Bahamas.This may make a close pass to Southern Florida with heavy rain and TS force winds,but this isn't certain yet how close it will come to Florida.Once it reaches the Bahamas,models are split with the majority steering it out to see.But something to watch with a deep trough moving east from the central US,will it capture this system and phase into a major storm on the east coast? Don't know at this time.I am leaning more toward this not becoming a phase system and moving out harmlessly to sea,but way to far out to be sure.
The ECMWF Operational,looks really scary,but right now does not have a lot of support from other models,so less likely to happen,but this far out it won't surprise me to see changing models.

So here it is October 22,and we should be watching for sneak snowstorms,remember last year?So instead this year we are watching the tropics as all models predicting the formation of a tropical system in the carribean that will eventually move north-northeast to about the the bahamas.That seems to be pretty certain.Then the drama sets in as we get major model differences.Some bring it up the east coast as it transistions from a hurricane to what they call a hybrid,and some take it out to see.As it stands right now we may not know until the end of the week.
It all depends on a deepening trough on the west coast that will gradually move east into the central part of the country.Will this grab the system and eventually phase with the east coast system and form a monster(no pun intended because of halloween) or stay unphased and slide harmlessly out to see.As most of us here in the northeast know the end of October is famous for major storms,so this will be something that definitely need to be watched.Even southern and eastern Florida needs to watch this depending on how close it gets and how strong it is when it gets near them.Probably hurricane by the time it reaches the Bahamas.It will be named Sandy.
As much drama as the Patriots game,as they barely pull one out in overtime.They are tough to watch,especially when they get to the 4th quarter.
I guess a win is a win.

Heavy rains

By: NEwxguy, 2:24 PM GMT on October 15, 2012

October 19th
So we made it to Friday,thats always a good thing,and weatherwise,it looks like all the precip should be over by early tomorrow morning and we will probably shoot up into the 70's tomorrow,before we drop back to normal on Sunday.Hope to do some more painting in the kitchen this weekend,and should finish all painting by next weekend,with patching holes and applying a couple of coats of primer,then at least one coat of the paint.I will be so glad when this is all done.
Big patriots game against our rivals the NY jets on late Sunday afternoon.

October 18th
Winter forecasts are coming out.Noaa is out with theirs,as indicated in Dr. Masters main blog,and with all the contributing factors,several seem to contrast each other,so it really seems up in the air.I find it hard to believe it will be anything like last year.I suspect this winter is going to be a rollercoaster ride,with periods of snow and cold and warmups.I think its going to be a very changeable winter,but who knows,we didn't see such an above normal winter last winter.

October 17th
So we had a little earthquake here in New England,centered in Maine,the arrowhead lake region,which is not to far north in Maine,but inland.
around 4.0 on the richter scale,not very big,but for our region,it shakes people up a little since we don't usually experience this.
I personally never felt it,but many people in Mass. said they felt it.A little over reaction by some people.It occurred around 7:10 pm last night.
When I was stationed in Japan many years ago for two years,I experienced many earthquakes there,and much stronger.Very unsettling feeling with the stronger earthquakes.Not a nice feeling either.
Gives something for people to talk about anyway.

October 16th,
Brief hvy shower during the night,and cool breezy day today,then our warmup begins tomorrow and the rest of the week will be above normal.
Could be some heavy showers late Friday or early Saturday,but weather looks pretty good for this week.

Other than it's payday,Monday is here again.After 4 days off,its still lousy coming into work on Monday.
Anyway a very mild morning and day ahead with a chance of heavy showers early this evening with a cold front.Much cooler tomorrow,but another warmup for the end of the week,in fact it looks mild at times for the next couple of weeks,which may keep our string of above normal months continuing.
Patriots lost yesterday,when they should have won.So after 6 games,its obvious they aren't that good a team.Too many mistakes,missed opportunities,Tom Brady did not look good at all despite big numbers,and the defense can't hold a lead.So expecting a mediocre season.

What a differenc a year makes!!!

By: NEwxguy, 4:57 PM GMT on October 08, 2012

October 10th
Last year October was much above normal which started a much above normal fall season,which turned into our non winter.
Last year at this time we were in the 80's,this year we can't make it out of the 50's.I've kept records for quite a few years and followed trends and one of the things I've noticed is that with temperature trends,they are usually opposite from one year to another,so if for example last year October was much above normal,it usually follows that the following year will not, either around normal or below.Of course in weather constant rules like that never happen,but I've seen more times than not.So my thinking is this winter should be below normal.Mother Nature likes to correct itself from year to year.

October 9th

We have been on a roll as far as above normal temps have been occurring month after month beginning last year with only 1 or 2 months that were slightly below normal.This week has definitely been the exception as we have been running 5 to 10 degrees below normal.This will continue into the weekend,with unsettled conditions,but not big storms at this point.

I don't think I've ever had columbus day off,but many people do,expecially state and fedreal workers and schools.
Very fall like week for us ahead with periods of unsettled weather,no big heavy rains,but lots of systems moving by the coast,far enough away that nothing heavy occurs except down on Cape Cod and the islands.Generally in the 50's all week,with maybe some 60's on Wednesday before another strong cold front comes through on Wednesday night with some possible heavy showers and gusty winds.
Patriots looked good,thankfully Denver made some mistakes at the end,because they came back strong.Some strange play calling in the 4th quarter.

October Breast Cancer Awareness month

By: NEwxguy, 6:40 PM GMT on October 01, 2012

October 6th
One more day in the 70's,then into a fall chill pattern,with no warmup for the foreseeable future.
I get to fill in holes in our wall prior to painting. I should have had a wall repair party,could have it done quickly then again beer and wall repair don't sound like a good mix

October 5th
We have a beautiful today,may reach 80,shouldn't be in work wasting this day,as we probably won't see a day like this again until spring,although October can be up and down,so who knows.By Sunday,warmth will not be mentioned.Snow falling out in the upper midwest,so the season is changing.

October 3rd
I hope everyone in one way or another contributes something for Breast Cancer awareness month,whether joining a walk or a small donation.Almost everyone knows someone who has been effected by this disease.
My wife who has experienced this twice is free,but the danger is always there for a return,but to our medical peoples credit they have given her hope this disease will stay away.So many have lost their lives to this disease.My prayers go out to all those currently fighting the disease, and never lose hope.

some say September is the transition month from summer into fall,but I always consider October the transition month. Although this year we had quite a few days with the feel of fall. This past weekend we were in the 50's all weekend except for late yesterday when the sun broke through before sunset and it hit 61.
So October starts out with fairly warm days in the 70's and can even hit 80,but by the end of the month with the colors in the trees and our first below 32 mornings,you really know its fall.Lets hope we don't have a repeat of last years big snowstorm at the end of the month.
Tropical season is pretty much done,although it officially doesn't end until November 30th,the pattern across the country into the Atlantic does not promote any tropical systems if they form to threaten the US east coast.We can get some home brewed storms in the carribean,but with the pattern the way it is,I don't really think we have to worry too much,just keep one eye open.
nice victory for the patriots,but you would never know it in the first half.Still worry me with all the mistakes they make,but they certainly flipped the switch in the second half.Now we wait for our old nemesis Peyton Manning next Sunday in Foxboro.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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