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2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #63

By: NCHurricane2009 , 3:58 AM GMT on August 14, 2014

...WEDNESDAY AUGUST 13 2014 11:59 PM EDT...
Tropical wave Invest 94-L midway between the Lesser Antilles and Cape Verde Islands has continued to become less organized while ingesting dry air to the north and west and therefore tropical cyclone formation from this system is no longer likely. Therefore I have cancelled this system as a special feature on this blog.

The vigorous tropical wave previously southeast of the Cape Verde Islands has moved southwestward to a location south of the islands perhaps while interacting with the circulation of the vigorous tropical wave to the east mentioned in the next paragraph. Meanwhile a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is present in the central Atlantic as marked by a blue L and pair of blue dashed lines in the atmospheric features chart below...and is expected to shift south in advance of a building central Atlantic upper ridge. The recent southwest track as opposed to a westward track means that this tropical wave is behind in its westward progression than previously thought...which indicates that it is more likely to stay east of the southward shifting TUTT rather than directly below it. However still not expecting additional development from this tropical wave as it will likely deal with less favorable southerly vertical shear on the east side of the southward shifting TUTT.

The vigorous tropical wave over western Africa will emerge into the Atlantic tropical waters in the next 24 hours. Meanwhile the deep-layered 1013 mb northwestern Atlantic low pressure marked in the atmospheric features chart below will become re-enforced by the vigorous 1002 mb frontal cyclone and associated upper trough over eastern North America...which will cause the deep-layered low to weaken the Atlantic low-level subtropical ridge as it shifts into the eastern Atlantic. As the ridge weakens...this will keep the westward progression of this tropical wave slow such that it has a very high chance to stay in a favorable low shear/good outflow environment associated with a tropical upper ridge to expand in the eastern tropical Atlantic in the wake of the TUTT mentioned in the previous paragraph. Therefore if this tropical wave continues to stay organized while moving over water...I will consider upgrading it to a special feature in my next blog update.

 photo Aug_13_2014_2045Z_zpse1a4e026.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and the 1926Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

 photo Aug_13_2014_2045Z_Thermo_zps8f8e9af9.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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