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2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #81A (Special Update)

By: NCHurricane2009 , 5:03 PM GMT on September 01, 2013

...SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 1 2013 1:05 PM EDT...
Tropical wave Invest 97-L approaching the Lesser Antilles...mentioned in paragraph P9 of discussion #81...has seen an increase in thunderstorm activity and has become better organized over the last 12 hours. As some of the more agressive model solutions were predicting...the upper winds are becoming more favorable as the axis of upper vorticity to the west and north of the system (paragraph P7 of discussion #81) is breaking up...allowing for an upper anticyclone to build over the system. This upper anticyclone will soon compose of a merger between a fragment of the low-latitude upper ridge axis overhead (paragraph P7 of discussion #81) and mid-latitude upper ridging in the vicinity of the Bahamas (paragraph P5 of discussion #81). Therefore I am re-upgrading this tropical wave to a special feature with a high risk of eventual tropical cyclone formation. Squally weather with gusty winds will be overspreading the Lesser Antilles during the next 24 hours. Interests across the Caribbean Sea...including all of the northern Caribbean Islands as well as the Bahamas...should monitor this situation carefully over the next few days. This is because their is potential for the system to deflect more northward in track if it develops quickly enough to become vertically coupled with ridge weaknesses associated with the upper trough mentioned in paragraph P1 of discussion #81 and another upper trough to quickly follow behind that over the next 5 days.

Return to full discussion #81 for an assessment of the rest of the Atlantic tropics.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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6:01 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
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