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By: NCHurricane2009 , 12:36 AM GMT on August 26, 2013
...SUNDAY AUGUST 25 2013 8:36 PM EDT...
Aircraft Reconnaissance has reached tropical depression six and has determined that previous estimates using surface observations and satellite organization had under-predicted the true strength of the cyclone. The depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernand of 45 mph maximum sustained winds. In addition...the center has been fixed further southwest from previous estimates such that the NHC has adjusted their forecast track further south. Since my previous forecast track in discussion #76 already had a southward bias...I am not making much adjustment to that track. The following is my updated intensity forecast in lieu of the upgrade to Tropical Storm Fernand:
7 PM Sun Aug 25 2013...45 mph...initial
10 PM Sun Aug 25 2013...50 mph...3 hr (Landfall)
4 AM Mon Aug 26 2013...40 mph...9 hr
10 AM Mon Aug 26 2013...35 mph...15 hr (Dissipating)
The NHC forecast intensity suggests a peak of 60 mph for the landfall later tonight. Although their has been a very recent and impressive storm burst over the center as seen on satellite to support the NHC forecast...with the center currently close to the coast I do not think that Fernand will quiet make it to that strength before landfall.
Return to full discussion #76 for an assessment on the rest of the Atlantic tropics.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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