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2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #167A (Special Update)

By: NCHurricane2009 , 5:06 AM GMT on November 25, 2012

...SATURDAY NOVEMBER 24 2012...11:59 PM EDT...
The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season has likely ended. With one week to go in the season...computer models show a pattern of low-amplitude upper troughs and ridges traversing the Atlantic. Without a high-amplitude upper trough or major cut-off upper vortex expected...vertical wind shear will be high as to prevent subtropical cyclone development. Concerning the tropical belt of the Atlantic...surface tropical waves have stopped rolling off of Africa since late October. The remaining favorable upper ridge in the tropical Atlantic (paragraph P4 of full discussion #167) is shown in models to de-amplify over the course of the next week.

Full birdseye chart discussions will resume on this blog when the Atlantic hurricane season re-starts in June 2013. Special updates and or full birdseye discussions could resume before that time if any out of season tropical or subtropical activity occurs in the Atlantic basin.

Sometime early in 2013...I will be releasing post-storm reports for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season which will include an evaluation of how my storm forecasts (issued on this blog) compared with that of the official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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2. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:31 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
NCHurricane2009 has created a new entry.
1. hatrickp
3:00 PM GMT on November 25, 2012
Well NCH, your blog has been absolutely fascinating during the season, far more in depth than any other Hurricane Season report I've come across, including the NHC's!
Glad you've decided to do another one next year. Was wondering actually, how long the current high phase of the AMO is projected to last? I've heard that's the main reason (although not the only one) that the season has been so active in recent years.
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