Debunking the Drudge Conspiracy

By: MAweatherboy1, 11:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2016

It seems the popular hurricane conspiracy this year has become “The NHC is overhyping the storms’ winds.” By now you've probably heard about what happened a couple days ago, when a notorious political commentator delivered remarks on Hurricane Matthew's wind speed being overstated. The supposed basis for such claims is a lack of ground-truth verification once the storm is onshore. The idea that the NHC is intentionally overstating wind intensity is largely ...

August Update: 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: MAweatherboy1, 8:06 PM GMT on August 07, 2016

With the calendar now turned to August, we are well on our way to the peak of hurricane season. With the dissipation of Hurricane Earl, the Atlantic has now seen 5 named storms and 2 non-major hurricanes, a little ahead of where we should be for named storms but very close to normal for ACE based on 1981-2010 climatology, via Dr. Ryan Maue's global ACE page. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a couple of disturbances in the Atlantic that each have low pro...

2016 Hurricane Season Forecast Update

By: MAweatherboy1, 5:11 PM GMT on May 14, 2016

Welcome to my May update for the 2016 hurricane season forecast. My original forecast was issued back in March, and called for (including January’s Hurricane Alex) 11 storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) 75-90% of normal. This issuance is meant as an update of that post. This will serve as my final extensive preseason update and numbers forecast, although I may write blogs on individual storms or the state of the s...

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

By: MAweatherboy1, 9:26 PM GMT on March 19, 2016

Hello, and welcome to my 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season prediction blog! As always, it seems hard to believe that we are again approaching the time of year where the thoughts of meteorologists turn from snowstorms and Arctic air outbreaks to severe weather and the impending hurricane season. A few disclaimers before I begin. Firstly, my forecast is in no way official nor representative of the thoughts of any official forecasting agency. These are my thoughts alo...

Updated: 10:57 PM GMT on April 04, 2016

Sizing Up the 2015 Hurricane Season

By: MAweatherboy1, 5:58 PM GMT on September 07, 2015

Good afternoon, and Happy Labor Day to everyone! I hope you’re all enjoying this unofficial end of summer. It certainly feels like summer here in the Northeast, with a late season heat wave kicking off for some places today, and record or near-record heat in the low-mid 90s likely for the next three days. This time of year is also the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, and my post today will go into how this season has performed relative to expec...


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Average 20 year old weather nerd. Plymouth State University Meteorology, Class of 2018. NOAA Hollings scholar. Summer 2016 intern at NWS Boston.

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