Average 20 year old weather nerd. Plymouth State University Meteorology, Class of 2018. NOAA Hollings scholar. Summer 2016 intern at NWS Boston.
By: MAweatherboy1 , 10:49 PM GMT on July 16, 2012
Due to drier air and cooler waters than it has experienced through its lifespan, Fabio weakened to a tropical storm today. As of the National Hurricane Center's 5PM advisory, Fabio has maximum sustained winds of 70mph and a minimum central pressure of 992mb, making it a high end tropical storm. Fabio's anticipated turn northward has begun, as it is now moving NNW at 9mph according to the NHC. Fabio is not currently threatening any land areas as it remains about 700 miles WSW of the tip of Baja California.
Forecast for Fabio
Fabio has been moving WNW, but now is being pulled north due to a weakness in the subtropical ridge which has been steering it. Fabio should continue to turn further to the right, going due north by tomorrow and then turning more NNE. The intensity forecast is fairly simple. Fabio is entering into increasingly drier air as well as water temperatures far below what is needed to support a tropical cyclone. Thus, steady weakening is forecast and the NHC says Fabio will be post tropical by Wednesday evening, which I agree with. Convection has occasionally flared up today, but the eye has disappeared and any convective flareups should quickly die down.
Figure 1: Tropical Storm Fabio. Image credit.
Tropical Storm Khanun Forms
In the West Pacific, Tropical Storm Khanun formed earlier today. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Khanun has maximum sustained winds of 35kts (40mph), making it a minimal tropical storm. It is moving WNW at about 17mph and is located about 275 nautical miles east of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa as of the latest JTWC warning.
Forecast for Khanun
Khanun is not in an ideal environment for strengthening, but marginal strengthening is possible for the next 24 hours. The JTWC forecast a peak of 45kts (50mph). I think a slightly weaker storm is likely, probably about 40kts (45mph). Khanun is being steered by the subtropical ridge, and should continue on its WNW motion for another 12-24 hours before turning more NW and eventually due north. The forecast path has shifted west some since yesterday but still shows Khanun making landfall in southwestern South Korea. Khanun will be weakening rapidly by then however due to much cooler waters. Hopefully it can hang on long enough to provide the Korean peninsula with some much needed rain as that area is suffering through its worst drought in 100 years. Unfortunately, the weakening and accelerating Khanun will likely do very little to help.
Figure 2: Tropical Storm Khanun. Image credit.
With Fabio and Khanun both expected to be gone within a couple days, it appears we are heading into a slow period for the tropics. Some models, most notably the GFS, are showing possible Atlantic development off the East Coast in 5-7 days from a trough split. My thinking hasn't changed much on this, and I continue to give it about a 30-40% chance of producing a tropical cyclone.
Thanks for reading, and enjoy your night!
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