Invest 97L a Development Threat this Week - Will Bring Heavy Rain To Greater Antilles

By: Levi32 , 10:45 PM GMT on September 02, 2013

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Invest 97L remains elongated today, with the main low centered just north of Barbados, but the overall circulation extending for hundreds of miles WSW and ENE of that location. The system has made no westward progress during the last 24 hours due to low pressure feeding back in a favorable environment near the lesser Antilles. The system should eventually assume a general WNW motion. Due to slower movement than expected, 97L is likely to gain latitude as the subtropical ridge to the north is weakened by a front off of the Carolinas in a few days, and interaction with the greater Antilles appears likely. Heavy rains will be the main concern for the mountainous areas of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba as the system moves somewhat lethargically northwestward. Although the exact track of the system remains uncertain due to its broad nature and vulnerability to center reformations, the system is expected to end up in the general vicinity of Cuba or the Bahamas in 4-6 days. This solution is supported by the 12z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET.

The current environment around 97L remains rather favorable, with anticyclonic wind flow aloft, and a deep moisture field from the surface to 700mb. The main impediment to development remains the system's elongated structure, being exacerbated now by interaction with another low pressure system to the ESE that is closing distance with 97L. As the system moves westward, development, if any, is expected to be slow, as the system will take time to consolidate, and the central Caribbean trade winds tend to cause low-level divergence and hostile conditions for tropical waves. Potential interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba may also hamper development. However, if 97L can consolidate over open water north or south of the big islands, the environment will become mostly favorable for development of a tropical cyclone late this week and possibly into next week once the system gets farther west and north. With a disturbance this large, we are in a bit of a wait and see game to see if it consolidates, and if so, where and when.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave moving across central America into the western Gulf of Mexico will be monitored for potential development in an unstable atmosphere. For now, no computer models show significant development. A tropical wave is forecasted by most of the global models to develop off of Africa in about a week from now. This will be discussed more once the timetable gets closer.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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8. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:46 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Levi32 has created a new entry.
7. Camille33
3:28 AM GMT on September 04, 2013
Good post levi!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
6. hurricanes2018
3:26 AM GMT on September 04, 2013
I heard fireworks from my house the past couple of evenings, from events that were postponed by rain on the 4th of July. And looking at the tropical Atlantic and Africa, you'd think it was early July not early September.

The disturbances which come from east to west across Africa are not looking very impressive and then are not developing when they reach the Atlantic. Some model runs keep trying to crank them up, and maybe eventually one of them finally will become a hurricane, but not yet, and there is no indication of when one might make it all the way across to North America or even the Caribbean.
A series of disturbances near the eastern Caribbean islands has tried to organize in recent days, unsuccessfully. Forecast models indicate something may finally try to do so as it approaches the Bahamas, but if so would be steered away from the U.S. and/or be discombobulated by brisk upper-level winds.

The "ACE" that we've been talking about (Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a measure of strength and longevity as well as number of tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes), which was 1/2 of average-to-date for thus far in the season and then 1/3, is now less than 1/4 ... as there is still no additional cyclone energy to measure since there aren't any cyclones, while the average continues to rise rapidly, thus the increasingly big departure below the long-term average.
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5. hurricanes2018
2:18 AM GMT on September 04, 2013
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4. hurricanes2018
2:10 AM GMT on September 04, 2013
good video levi!!
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3. hurricanes2018
4:21 PM GMT on September 03, 2013
where are the hurricanes!!!
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2. nigel20
11:02 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Great blog update, Levi...thanks much!
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1. barbamz
10:54 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Thanks Levi. Very interesting to watch as always.
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