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Atlantic to Stay Quiet for Next 7-10 Days, Next Chance for Development not until End

By: Levi32 , 12:25 AM GMT on July 17, 2013

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12. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:01 AM GMT on July 24, 2013
Levi32 has created a new entry.
11. hurricanes2018
8:44 PM GMT on July 23, 2013
WTNT21 KNGU 231400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 22.7W TO 12.9N 28.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 22.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 160 MILES SOUTH SOUTH
EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST AT APPORXIMATELY 15 KNOTS. SATELITE IMAGERY AND
SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATE A LOW LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION. LOW
WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 83 DEGREES WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE. HOWEVER, THE LIFE CYCLE
OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY, STABLE AIR DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 241400Z.//

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10. hurricanes2018
1:41 AM GMT on July 23, 2013
NO NEW VIDEO YET!!
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9. hurricanes2018
10:03 AM GMT on July 22, 2013
Link
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8. hurricanes2018
6:29 PM GMT on July 20, 2013
here the tropical wave levi!!
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7. hurricanes2018
4:15 AM GMT on July 20, 2013
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6. hurricanes2018
10:31 PM GMT on July 19, 2013
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5. hurricanes2018
6:15 PM GMT on July 18, 2013
did you see this coming levi
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4. hurricanes2018
6:14 PM GMT on July 18, 2013
good video!!!
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3. Levi32
3:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 2. DFWdad:
Thanks for the update!

Howe unusual is it for the MJO to retrograde?

Seems like all of the discussion I have heard on the WU blogs is about it moving West to East.

Thanks again.


It is against the MJO's normal behavior, but it is not terribly unusual. Often this can occur repeatedly throughout the course of a summer due to the MJO being "attracted" to a particular ocean because of much warmer water than normal. In some years, if the Atlantic is the warmest ocean relative to normal, the MJO will have a hard time staying away from phases 1-3 for very long.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2. DFWdad
3:31 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Thanks for the update!

Howe unusual is it for the MJO to retrograde?

Seems like all of the discussion I have heard on the WU blogs is about it moving West to East.

Thanks again.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. johnbluedog69
12:27 AM GMT on July 17, 2013
Thank You Levi!Very wise words at the end.Excellent presentation as always.
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About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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Overlooking Peterson Bay
Homer, AK
Elevation: 27 ft
Temperature: 20.0 °F
Dew Point: 15.9 °F
Humidity: 84%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 2:48 AM AKDT on March 23, 2017
Homer, AK
Elevation: 852 ft
Temperature: 15.0 °F
Dew Point: 3.0 °F
Humidity: 57%
Wind: 4.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Updated: 2:45 AM AKDT on March 23, 2017

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