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More on the winter and recent model failings

By: Levi32 , 1:17 AM GMT on December 10, 2011

Here's another video talking about the winter and how the models have failed so far during the first week of December, and why the month overall should end up a lot warmer than was forecasted by many. I have never been in on winter forecasting, and I'm only talking so much about the winter this year because of all of the cold forecasts I have seen, which I find puzzling, so I'm trying to show that they should be wrong about this winter if the pattern continues. We shall just see what happened after it's all over in March.



We shall see what happens!




The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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12. msphar
1:34 PM GMT on December 23, 2011
Yesterday morning it was 4F when I went outside. Today the glorious global warming effect kicked in and its already 6F! Brrrrrr! No snow in the nearby Sierra, we are very dry East of the Sierra also. Plus we have had very little wind, the jet seems to be avoiding our area.

So Merry Christmas from the dry side of dry.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
11. LakeWorthFinn
4:51 AM GMT on December 23, 2011
Happy Holidays {{{Levi}}} and a wonderful 2012 to you and your loved ones!

~~~~♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥~~~~


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
9. seflagamma
12:57 AM GMT on December 23, 2011
Hi Levi,

Wishing you and your family a very Merry Christmas
and Thank you for all you do all year.
I love your Tropial Tibits!


From our Home to Yours
Merry Christmas and a Healthy & Happy New Year 2012!






"And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow,
stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons.
It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags.
And he puzzled and puzzled, till his puzzler was sore.
Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn%u2019t before.
What if Christmas, he thought, doesn%u2019t come from a store.
What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more."

- Dr. Seuss



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
8. LowerCal
9:42 PM GMT on December 11, 2011
Thanks for your usual great job of sharing your insight and reasoning on the larger and longer term influences.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
7. Levi32
6:48 PM GMT on December 11, 2011
Quoting msphar:
Nice post, Levi! Here in Northwestern Nevada we had a very wet and windy cold winter last year. This year things are different. There has been very little precipitation and not much wind but plenty of cold. Its a little more typical of a La Nina pattern based on my recollection. The Sierra mountains here have very little snow/ice build up so far this cold season. Quite a bit of it being left over from last years large snow depth. A little less cold and a little more moisture would be nice. I remember years in the 1950s and 1960s that were like this.


As well you should. The world is in a very similar climate pattern to the 1950s right now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
6. msphar
6:46 AM GMT on December 11, 2011
Nice post, Levi! Here in Northwestern Nevada we had a very wet and windy cold winter last year. This year things are different. There has been very little precipitation and not much wind but plenty of cold. Its a little more typical of a La Nina pattern based on my recollection. The Sierra mountains here have very little snow/ice build up so far this cold season. Quite a bit of it being left over from last years large snow depth. A little less cold and a little more moisture would be nice. I remember years in the 1950s and 1960s that were like this.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. ycd0108
2:53 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
And thank you for putting this together for us to watch.
What I've thought I have seen from the few years that I have had access to WU and sat. I see packages of energy (warm wet air) come east over us and stir things up across the continent and eventually get reported over the U.K. By the time they get there obviously some influences have come into play from the Tropics. Anything you post about the N.E. Pac. is closely watched here.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. Levi32
2:07 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
Quoting shadoclown45:
Thanks for the update levi, are you in college, and are you going for a major in atmospheric studies and meterology, because I'm a junior in high school and im looking at alot of colleges to study meterology, and I agree 100% with your winter forcast alot of the people who were forcasting harsh winters with well below average temps and alot of snow have lowered their forcasts alot, I still think january the AO will go slightly negative mid-month.


Yes I am in school working on a degree in applied physics with a focus in atmospheric science. Eventually I hope to obtain a graduate degree in meteorology.

Quoting spathy:
Thanks Levi.
Its kinda funny.
After two of the strongest frontal passages here in SW Florida,just yesterdat I said this to a coworker: Wouldent it be nice if this type of front persisted for the winter here?
A quick blast of colder air, immediately followed by a return southerly flow.I said to my coworker, I just cant imagine that the past two years of elongated cold, followed by reinforcing cold, could continue again this year.
(wishful thinking ? or just the odds)

Given the possible scenario of your forecast,how does that relate to precipitation in Texas and Southern Florida?
Average ?
Or the possibility of training fronts along Florida later in the season?
I am trying to remember what year it was that SW Florida got the stalled wet fronts that gave Bonita Springs 20" rains from one front.


Well not being a local I'm afraid I can't recall which winter was that wet lol. Generally the kind of winter that I'm expecting is mild and dry for the southeast. Texas could get in on some more rain/snow events like recently if cold air remains more entrenched down by the 4-corners region and the rest of the western U.S., which is also something I expect more of this winter than a typical La Nina winter.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. shadoclown45
1:52 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
Thanks for the update levi, are you in college, and are you going for a major in atmospheric studies and meterology, because I'm a junior in high school and im looking at alot of colleges to study meterology, and I agree 100% with your winter forcast alot of the people who were forcasting harsh winters with well below average temps and alot of snow have lowered their forcasts alot, I still think january the AO will go slightly negative mid-month.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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