Irene inland over New England; Watching for the next big storm from the east

By: Levi32 , 3:40 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office.

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Irene is moving inland over New England and has been downgraded to a tropical storm of 60mph winds. The NHC didn't keep her at minimal hurricane intensity at landfall in western Long Island like they were forecasting before, but we will see if any wind reports come in to overturn that, as her pressure is still very low at 966mb. Damage reports are coming in and will continue today. Flooding seems to be the biggest issue, both from storm surge and from extremely heavy rainfall. Hopefully it ends up not being as bad and as costly as it could have been. This will definitely be a storm remember on the list of great storms that ran up the eastern seaboard. Interior New England and Maine still have to deal with the full force of Irene today and tonight, so hopefully people stay safe up there.

It will take quite a while to get over Irene in the northeast, and she will be talked about for a while, but we can now start finally moving on to new threats from the tropics. It is the peak of the hurricane season, and it's not going to let up after Irene.

Tropical Storm Jose has developed southwest of Bermuda, a complete waste of a name, and that really is true this time. The thing's already dead, and Bermuda probably won't even know it is there, although they are under a tropical storm warning.

A new tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is forecasted to develop by all of the major models, and will likely become Katia. The ECMWF consistently develops the wave into a major hurricane in the southwest Atlantic in 10 days, with the most recent run putting it at 25N, 70W, a little too close to the U.S. for comfort, although it is already moving northwest by that time. The pattern for the next two weeks will consist of anomalous ridging over southeast Canada and the northern U.S., with the mean break between the Texas ridge and the Bermuda High sitting over the southeastern U.S. again, just as it did with Irene. This is the classic peak of the season pattern that we warned about, and it is capable of bringing storms into the Caribbean islands and U.S. if they come from far enough south. With our new wave, if it develops quickly and strengthens into a hurricane, it would be pretty hard to get it as far west as the islands or the U.S. before recurving, but it is a very long way out right now, and the pattern supports threats to the coast, so we will keep a close eye on it. Bermuda may have to eventually worry about it, but it is no cause for distress yet.

We shall see what happens!

Official NHC Forecast for Tropical Storm Irene:



Official NHC Public Advisory for Tropical Storm Irene:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 281457
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.4N 73.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM W OF DANBURY CONNECTICUT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ALL WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTH OF
CHINCOTEAGUE AND FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...
INCLUDING CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF NORTH BEACH...DELAWARE BAY...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY AND OVER EASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WEATHERFLOW STATION ON FIRE ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 63
MPH...101 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
CENTRAL PARK IN NEW YORK CITY REPORTED 966.5 MB...28.54 AS THE
CENTER PASSED THIS MORNING.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FROM WESTERN
PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND ISLAND SOUND EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND MASSACHUSETTS. THE
HIGHEST SURGES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE UPPER PARTS OF BAYS AND INLETS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...
DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY
LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. WATER LEVELS
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY WILL
SUBSIDE TODAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD
INTO NEW YORK STATE AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY. WINDS AFFECTING
THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

Invest 92L Model Track Forecasts:



Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity Potential (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):






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11. atmosweather
9:21 AM GMT on August 29, 2011
"Tropical Storm Jose has developed southwest of Bermuda, a complete waste of a name, and that really is true this time. The thing's already dead, and Bermuda probably won't even know it is there, although they are under a tropical storm warning."

Exactly what I thought when they named it lmao. That's probably the most ridiculous system I've seen the NHC name for many years. A massive hairdryer of wind shear slamming it in the face and as much deep convection as the afternoon showers you get in coastal England but oh let's run through another name lol.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
10. Levi32
9:08 PM GMT on August 28, 2011
The NAO this year was negative through July, and has popped up to neutral or slight-positive since mid-August. A similar flip occurred in 2008 during September, 2005 during August, 1996 during June, and 1955 during July. These flips usually only last a couple of months before going back negative, but they usually make at least either August or September positive, if not both months. This seems to contribute to the significant number of landfalls during the peaks of these seasons.

Monthly NAO values, from January (left) to December (right):

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
9. Levi32
4:30 PM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting BEENE:
Thanks Levi- great post as usual. Any chance of that home grown mischief bringing some relief to us in Texas?


It's possible yes, but the models really aren't that excited about it. Even without tropical development though, a cut-off upper low could easily bring Texas some rain, which would be nice.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
8. BEENE
4:26 PM GMT on August 28, 2011
Thanks Levi- great post as usual. Any chance of that home grown mischief bringing some relief to us in Texas?
Member Since: June 16, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
7. SunnyDaysFla
4:10 PM GMT on August 28, 2011
Thank you Levi. Looks like we will have a few days without imminent mischief.
Member Since: September 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 897
6. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:09 PM GMT on August 28, 2011
lol, "Six hour miracle".

Thanks Levi!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35617
5. WeatherNerdPR
4:05 PM GMT on August 28, 2011
"Six hour miracle" LMAO
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5726
4. InTheCone
4:04 PM GMT on August 28, 2011
Thanks, I'm addicted to these tidbits - lol!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1990
3. Levi32
3:54 PM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting AllyBama:
Good morning! Tks for the update - as always.
All eyes will be on 92L; however, I have heard mentioned elsewhere of a possible system in the GOM. Have you seen or heard anything? TIA


Yeah some of the models seem to hint at a cut-off upper low developing in the gulf during the 7-10 day period, which could try to cause home-grown mischief. I didn't talk much about it because I've had to catch up on so much today due to ignoring the rest of the tropics for so long with Irene. It doesn't look like the models are excited about it at all, but if it is an issue I'll probably discuss it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
2. AllyBama
3:51 PM GMT on August 28, 2011
Good morning! Tks for the update - as always.
All eyes will be on 92L; however, I have heard mentioned elsewhere of a possible system in the GOM. Have you seen or heard anything? TIA
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 134 Comments: 20668

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