Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.
By: Levi32 , 3:01 PM GMT on July 06, 2011
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The tropical Atlantic (and really the global tropics) remain fairly quiet today. As expected, despite all the thunderstorm activity near and just north of the Caribbean over the 4th of July holiday, the area of energy was too broad to allow anything significant to develop out of it. The only feature I would watch for any possibility of development would be a disturbance within the ITCZ, currently in the central Atlantic near 40W, which will be moving towards the Trinidad area in about 3 days, and into the Caribbean from there. Right now it is at a fairly low latitude, and will thus have a hard time gaining significant spin, but once it starts to gain latitude, it may be worth watching. Such features following behind tropical waves can be sneaky at times. It is not an immediate threat, but may be worth watching next week in the Caribbean, as conditions could allow something to brew.
Other than that, there are no other current threats. The Atlantic will be favored for activity by the MJO for about the next 10 days before the models show this current upward motion pulse moving on into the Indian Ocean, allowing a greater portion of sinking air to return to the Atlantic, suppressing activity for the latter portion of July. This month should be a fairly quiet month overall, though I could see us getting one development out of it. Folks should keep in mind that June and July are generally not great indicators of what the peak of the hurricane season (August-October) will be like. Last year, we had a deadly quiet July, with only Tropical (Rainstorm) Bonnie forming, and yet we went on to have 19 named storms when it was all said and done. A quiet July should be no reason to let down your guard for this hurricane season. We have a long way to go, so let's enjoy the quiet while it lasts.
We shall see what happens!
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