Trough-splits possibly causing trouble in 7-10 days

By: Levi32 , 2:07 PM GMT on May 25, 2011

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video.



We shall see what happens!

200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):






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5. AtHomeInTX
12:50 AM GMT on May 27, 2011
thanks Levi.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. seflagamma
10:33 PM GMT on May 26, 2011
Hi Levi,
glad you are keeping an eye on the tropics for us and doing these update!
I am trying to take a look as often as I can.

Thanks!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. Levi32
8:21 PM GMT on May 26, 2011
12z ECMWF 168 hours shows the same thing:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2. Levi32
6:07 PM GMT on May 26, 2011
The 12z GFS now has low pressure developing in the Caribbean as soon as 6 days from now, aided by the aforementioned ventilation from either a trough-split or an isolated TUTT-like trough over the Gulf of Mexico:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. Levi32
8:16 PM GMT on May 25, 2011
12z ECMWF is still showing the trough-split over the southern Gulf of Mexico ventilating the western Caribbean, eventually bringing an area of low pressure northwestward.

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Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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