Tomas lashing the Antilles; Big Caribbean Islands are next

By: Levi32 , 4:56 PM GMT on October 30, 2010

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video.



It is a very busy day in the Atlantic today with two simultaneous hurricanes on the charts right at the end of October, which is quite a feat. Shary is recurving out and weakening but Tomas is slowly strengthening as he enters the Caribbean. He is just now starting to cross the southern Antilles Islands, bringing nasty weather to St. Vincent and St. Lucia right now. The core structure still needs lots of work, as convection hasn't built tightly all the way around the center yet. Slow organization is expected with a storm this large, and overall the presentation is extremely impressive for a storm at this time of year, especially east of the islands.

Slow intensification should continue until Tomas develops a solid core with an eye, but once that happens we could see some more rapid strengthening. I believe this will eventually become a major hurricane somewhere south of Jamaica and Hispaniola. Strangely enough, none of the global models really agree. The GFS does strengthen Tomas a little bit, but the ECMWF, CMC, NOGAPS, and UKMET are rather unenthusiastic. One can hope that they are seeing something, but I believe Tomas will indeed strengthen into a powerful storm. The video illustrates some of my reasons with pattern comparisons to a time earlier this season.

The track reasoning remains exactly the same as it has been for weeks, that Tomas will continue WNW into the Caribbean, likely turning more towards the west as ridging builds north of the storm, and then stalling in the central Caribbean as a trough dives into the eastern US. This trough should eventually draw Tomas north or northeastward across the northern Caribbean islands and entrain the storm. This is a situation that the big Caribbean islands should be monitoring very closely, as there is a good possibility that they will be facing a major hurricane trying to recurve in the vicinity of eastern Cuba, Jamaica, or Hispaniola later next week. This kind of a situation loves to unfold at the end of big La Nina seasons, and folks should be preparing right now.

We shall see what happens!

Hurricane Tomas Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Hurricane Tomas Track Models:




Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):







The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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13. shoreacres
1:49 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
12. Tazmanian
2:04 AM GMT on October 31, 2010
will the Twin Russian eruptions, am not sure strong they are can any one find out???



now the Indonesian Eruptions looks like a vary strong one and has better ch in effecting are climate
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
11. bcycsailor
12:51 AM GMT on October 31, 2010
Thanks Levi.

Very well presented information. I agree with the other posts...you are indeed a natural in your ease with disseminating complicated material. I wish you well and I believe you'll go far. I always learn something new in your posts :)

Good luck in your studies!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
10. Lauderdalecanuck
9:52 PM GMT on October 30, 2010
Another fine description about the current tropical conditions. I have learned more watching three of your videos than I have had
reading about meteorology on the internet over the past six months or taking an elective course in meteorology at Brock University.
Mind you that was merely a one year course. I urge you to teach meteorology someday Levi.





































Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
9. barbamz
6:36 PM GMT on October 30, 2010
Excellent, as always! Really thanks a lot, Levi.
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7. hydrus
5:38 PM GMT on October 30, 2010
Thank you for the update.
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6. Stats56
5:30 PM GMT on October 30, 2010
Thanks, informative, and awesome, as always
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5. SunnyDaysFla
5:26 PM GMT on October 30, 2010
Thanks as always Levi.
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4. InTheCone
5:21 PM GMT on October 30, 2010
Thanks Levi, great work!
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2. kimoskee
5:10 PM GMT on October 30, 2010
Thanks Levi. Watching closely from Jamaica.
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1. seflagamma
5:00 PM GMT on October 30, 2010
Hi Levi,
thanks for taking the time to give us an update!
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Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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