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Matthew dying; Re-development under the guise of "Nicole" to threaten the GOM

By: Levi32 , 5:38 PM GMT on September 25, 2010

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video.



Matthew continues to be the big story today as he is producing massive amounts of rainfall and flooding across central America. The system is now decoupled with the mid-level center heading westward while the surface center is over the Gulf of Honduras but about to move inland over Belize. This will likely die inland as the shortwave coming into the central US has not dug in enough to tug this north yet.

One can see the arc of clouds extending east of Matthew out towards the tip of Honduras and Nicaragua as the monsoonal jet continue to come into Nicaragua. This extended envelope of low pressure is likely where we will see the reformation of a surface low during the next several days that will probably be named Nicole, though it will be odd considering she will be within the same monsoonal circulation as Matthew.

This reformed system will then get drawn north by the upper trough towards Cuba and Florida, and again the track cannot be nailed down until we see where the storm forms, but the general idea remains that the gulf coast from New Orleans eastward is the main threat zone with this. Intensity is also something that will have to be worked out later, but moderating factors in the Gulf of Mexico will likely be wind shear and dry air. The farther east the storm tracks, the better off it will likely be. We could be seeing just a moderate tropical storm or a potent hurricane, depending on how things shape up.

The 6z run of the GFS was concerning for many as it turned the storm westward across the northern gulf towards Texas and Mexico. The reason for this is that the model brought the storm up so late that the trough lifted out and the ridge built back in over the top and directed the storm westward underneath. Given that we now likely have to deal with a 2nd development after Matthew and the time line is being shifted later, it is entirely possible that this kind of situation could happen, but I still feel that the eastern gulf is the most threatened from this. However, as I have said, the western gulf shouldn't let their guard down because all it takes is a few days where one of these troughs lifts out, the ridge builds back in, and if you have a storm coming up then it could aim for the western gulf, even though the pattern is more favorable for eastern gulf landfalls.

Beyond Matthew and/or Nicole we will likely see another system try to spin up in the Caribbean quickly after the first storm moves out, and again the pattern will favor high activity in the SW Atlantic Basin throughout most of October, and such activity will almost always threaten land, including the United States. Hopefully we get lucky and sneak away without a big hit, but chances are one of these storms will be a major one and somebody will get smacked before the season is over.

We shall see what happens!

Tropical Storm Matthew Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Tropical Storm Matthew Track Models:




Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):







The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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33. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:47 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Japan Meteorological Agency

DEVELOPED LOW, FORMER MALAKAS (T1012)
54.0ºN 173.0ºE - 972 hPa

SUBJECT: In Sea Around Aleutian Islands
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
32. seflagamma
6:55 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Hi Levi,

I know you have not come here yet today, but wanting to bump up your blog so one of the new girls on Dr Jeff's blog can know how to find you.


TWG, here is our Levi and he is really good!


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
31. MrNatural
4:06 AM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


I have not had the pleasure of taking a Met class yet unfortunately :(

They don't have Meteorology as a major in Alaska, therefore I am being forced to major in physics for now. Hopefully I can attend a Met school someday, but for now I am just a freshman trying to get going.


Good luck in your studies.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
30. Levi32
3:46 AM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting MrNatural:
Levi, Nice show. I like your intuition on these matters. It looks like Matthew will be history soon. I figure it will be another day or so before the set-up you discussed starts to take shape. I see you are a Met major. How many years have you been studying meteorology? You discuss the tropics as if you have been around awhile.


I have not had the pleasure of taking a Met class yet unfortunately :(

They don't have Meteorology as a major in Alaska, therefore I am being forced to major in physics for now. Hopefully I can attend a Met school someday, but for now I am just a freshman trying to get going.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
29. MrNatural
1:50 AM GMT on September 26, 2010
Levi, Nice show. I like your intuition on these matters. It looks like Matthew will be history soon. I figure it will be another day or so before the set-up you discussed starts to take shape. I see you are a Met major. How many years have you been studying meteorology? You discuss the tropics as if you have been around awhile.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
28. hurigo
9:45 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Thanks Levi,
You are awesome honey. Appreciate it so much.
But the question remains, for so many of us, is this thing gonna come and get me? Time will tell us, of course, but your analysis will prepare us.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
26. Levi32
8:57 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Quoting BenBIogger:
Great presentation there Levi.


Also, was there any similarities (Steering-Wise) to Hurricane Isbell and Hurricane Irene?







I showed those comparisons in a previous video a few days ago. The steering has some strong similarities to Isbell in 1964.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
25. southernstorm
8:28 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Thx for ur time.
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23. Foxy1958
8:13 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
thanks, look forward to your thoughts everyday!!!
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22. BenBIogger
8:12 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Great presentation there Levi.


Also, was there any similarities (Steering-Wise) to Hurricane Isbell and Hurricane Irene?





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21. AllyBama
7:33 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Levi,

thanks for the update - NOW just keep the storm away from my house!..lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
20. seflagamma
7:25 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Levi, so glad for your update today and Thanks again for taking the time to do this for us!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
19. Levi32
7:13 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Thanks all =)
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18. Becca36
6:59 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Quoting Lauderdalecanuck:
Nice explanation Levi. This is better than any tropical forecast I have ever seen. I am hoping that you are either a student or currently working in the field of meteorology because this was a nice detailed explanation of the chaotic rather bipolar mess that is occurring in the Caribbean.

I agree. Any weather service would greatly benefit from having you as part of their team in the future! Thanks again for a great understandable update.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
17. Hoff511
6:47 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Thanks Levi!
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16. hslSouthFla09
6:38 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
excellent update, Levi! you always give a great video presentation. I wish I could have majored in meteorology but I struggled too much just with bus. calc. my dad's b-day is oct 6th so I'm very interested to see if anything comes towards se fla
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
15. aislinnpaps
6:25 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Great to see a tidbit again. Thank you!
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14. FlaWxChaser
6:23 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Classes are going alright so far. Calc is rough...first exam is in a week, but so far it's not too bad.

Yeah I'm in Calc III right now, It was a miracle just to make it through Calc II. Im in Gen Met and Climatology I cant wait to get to the more serious stuff like synoptic. I keep telling myself just get through the math.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
12. Levi32
6:14 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Quoting HarryMc:
Good morning again Levi! Nice logical update as normal. I've been trying to learn and understand a new term every day...today's term: cyclolysis... I actually understand it! Amazing.


Good job! How relevant that term is to what's going on today with Matthew.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
11. Levi32
6:13 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Quoting HarryMc:
Good morning again Levi! Nice logical update as normal. I've been trying to learn and understand a new term every day...today's term: cyclolysis... I actually understand it! Amazing.
Quoting FlaWxChaser:
great video levi. I usually lurk on the message board, I saw you said you just started college for meteorology. I'm a met major at fsu. How are your classes going? How's Calc treating you? Keep up the good work man.


Classes are going alright so far. Calc is rough...first exam is in a week, but so far it's not too bad.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
10. Lauderdalecanuck
6:03 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Nice explanation Levi. This is better than any tropical forecast I have ever seen. I am hoping that you are either a student or currently working in the field of meteorology because this was a nice detailed explanation of the chaotic rather bipolar mess that is occurring in the Caribbean.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
9. HarryMc
6:02 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Good morning again Levi! Nice logical update as normal. I've been trying to learn and understand a new term every day...today's term: cyclolysis... I actually understand it! Amazing.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
8. taco2me61
6:00 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Levi,
I want to say "Thank You"
Very well done.... So I think Nicole might be the one we need to watch....

Taco :o)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
7. gbreezegirl
5:59 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Thanks Levi - you really explain things so well. My 9-year-old daughter aspires to be a meteorologist so we are always looking forward to your videos and updates. You are an inspiration!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
6. FlaWxChaser
5:59 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
great video levi. I usually lurk on the message board, I saw you said you just started college for meteorology. I'm a met major at fsu. How are your classes going? How's Calc treating you? Keep up the good work man.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. weatherwart
5:55 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Thank you, Levi. I'm watching in Florida. Welcome to my world, land of the late season low pressure migraines. You could use my head as a barometer.
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4. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:52 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Thanks Levi!
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3. MiamiHurricanes09
5:50 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Thanks for the update Levi! Very informative on the 'Nicole' situation.
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2. InTheCone
5:49 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Thanks Levi, hope you are taking some time out to have some fun!
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1. stormwatcherCI
5:46 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Thanks for the update Levi. Glad to know you still have your eye on the tropics.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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