Igor forms; SW Atlantic Basin getting ready to light up

By: Levi32 , 4:24 PM GMT on September 08, 2010

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video.



Well I think I have found a way to try to do some updates in the mornings again. This week I'll be really settling into my class schedule so I hope to have time to do these as part of my routine. I can't promise that I'll be able to put these up every day, but I will try.

The Atlantic is fairly quiet since Hermine moved ashore dumping large amounts of rain on Texas, but we have a brand new tropical storm in the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Igor, centered just southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. This is one of the more intimidating names on the storm list this year, and I think he has a good chance to live up to his name and become a major hurricane down the road. He should have less problems with dry air than Danielle and Earl did, as he has a nice large tropical wave out in front that is bringing a potent moisture burst into the Atlantic.

The models will be jumping around trying to recurve Igor into a weakness in the central Atlantic in about 10 days. There is room for a lot of change to this idea as the pattern is very dynamic, and a lot of models are showing drastically different things from run to run, indicating the uncertainty in this kind of pattern. The European and GFS both show another storm developing behind Igor in a few days and try to recurve it early. What could be interesting is if the storm behind Igor does recurve early, amplifies the trough into the eastern Atlantic, and pumps the ridge to the west which would prevent Igor from turning out as soon. This is speculation for now as it is a long way out, but I am still very concerned that the pattern this year may allow at least one of these Cape Verde storms to come all the way across and hit the United States.

The ECMWF has been fairly consistent on developing a storm in the Caribbean in 8-10 days as heat builds up and pressures lower in the SW Atlantic Basin. It is about time for this area of the Atlantic to get going. The Caribbean has seen nothing since Alex at the very beginning of the season. The models are starting to see the upward motion shift west towards the Caribbean after being focused over Africa during the Cape Verde storm burst, and this makes good sense given that the Cape Verde season typically starts to slow down during the 2nd half of September. August is the most active month for the eastern Atlantic climatologically, and once that area starts to shut down for the year, the activity is just going to shift west into the SW Atlantic Basin where storms are very likely to threaten land. We've already had Hermine as a warning shot that things will start to get active over there.

Just because most of our storms have been of Cape Verde origin this year doesn't mean that the season will end when the eastern Atlantic shuts down. The activity will simply shift west, and that's why the U.S. should still be very concerned about potential landfalls in the 2nd half of September and October. The Gulf of Mexico is a hot spot and deceptively favorable for storms that could get in there. Bonnie and a couple of TDs have made it seem like it's been unfavorable, but in reality it has been very favorable on average, but no storms have gotten in there to take advantage of it. We saw how fast Hermine tried to ramp up. It is not something to take lightly. I still expect a few more storms to hit the United States before the season is over.

We shall see what happens!

Tropical Storm Igor Track Models:




Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):






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21. bassis
8:32 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Thanks, I feel a little better about going to Orlando, Fla. for the end of sept. biginning of oct.
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
20. minorLeague
4:01 AM GMT on September 09, 2010
Really enjoyed your post
Member Since: November 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
19. ajcamsmom2
3:24 AM GMT on September 09, 2010
Wow, what an awesome surprise, I am so happy to see you posting your tidbits...:) Thanks...I was worried you would be so busy that we wouldn't be hearing from you before the Holidays...It's nice to be Blessed with the gift of your insite...
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2549
18. lavinia
1:41 AM GMT on September 09, 2010
Great update Levi and so easy to understand. Glad to see you back!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
17. Becca36
12:07 AM GMT on September 09, 2010
Yay! Thank you very much for the great update Levi.
Member Since: June 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
16. eyewallmiami
10:53 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Hi Levi, So GLAD to see you back. Hope everything is going well at school. You answered every question I could have thought to ask. Thanks so much!
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
15. shoreacres
10:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
I heard at work this afternoon that Igor had formed. What a delight to come home and find your update!

It sounds like the routine is getting set, and I know already you're smart enough to put your studies, sleep and classes ahead of updates for us ;)

As usual, a good update - and a good reminder that the Gulf may be wide open for business before this year's over.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15292
14. Hoff511
9:53 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Thanks Levi! Glad you are back. Looking forward to whatever "tidbits" you can share this semester, but try to have some fun too. :) BTW- Nice call on the trough split from Earl and Hermine spinning up in the BOC. Of course you just mentioned the possibility of something like that occurring and were too busy all week to expand further as it happened but all the same nice call.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 267
13. Levi32
9:34 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting surfmom:
Heaven, I'm in heaven -- what a great overview, I believe you answered everyone of my questions : )

I especially appreciate your drawing on the maps -- I understand so much more now -- like someone turned the light on : ) this is much better then books or school.


Lol, well it's my pleasure :)

Thanks all for stopping by.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
12. surfmom
6:42 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Heaven, I'm in heaven -- what a great overview, I believe you answered everyone of my questions : )

I especially appreciate your drawing on the maps -- I understand so much more now -- like someone turned the light on : ) this is much better then books or school.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
11. AKSnowLuvr
6:28 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Good to see you online! :) Hope things settle into a nice groove for you. Great discussion, as always!
Member Since: December 26, 2006 Posts: 278 Comments: 1251
10. Levi32
5:21 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting cre13:
Thank you SO much Storm! Glad you survived your first week at UAF! We survived Hurricane Earl; only a little bit of rain and some gusty winds Fri. AM but no big deal, really. We got very lucky. (I'm in the NE corner of NC)


I'm Levi, not Storm ;)

Glad to hear Earl wasn't a big deal for you guys.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
9. Chriscf76
5:18 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Thanks Levi!! Glad to see you posting your Tropical Tidbits again!
Member Since: August 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 43
8. JRRP
5:17 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
thanks Levi
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7076
7. breald
5:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Thanks for the update Levi. You are a very level headed young man who has a very bright future ahead of him. Take care and update us when you can.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
6. jonelu
5:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Awesome...I look forward to your synopsis. Hope your schedule is conducive for morning tropical updates since its so active. Good luck in school!
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 898
5. InTheCone
5:00 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Fantastic tidbit! Glad that you put one out for us, but as a dad with a young fella in his first year, I know that the school work comes first. I just wonder why I didn't figure that out 'till my second year? Oh yeah, now I remember, I met the young fella's mother during the first year and had to drop 3 classes!!

Have a great day!

Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1990
4. cre13
4:48 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Thank you SO much Storm! Glad you survived your first week at UAF! We survived Hurricane Earl; only a little bit of rain and some gusty winds Fri. AM but no big deal, really. We got very lucky. (I'm in the NE corner of NC)
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
3. Levi32
4:42 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Thanks Gamma =)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
2. seflagamma
4:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Excellent update. You make it all so easy to understand and those like me really appreciate your updates!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 314 Comments: 41198
1. seflagamma
4:25 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Hi Levi,

So you survived your first week of school! Glad to have you back for Igor.. now will go watch your video!

thanks,

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 314 Comments: 41198

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About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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