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Colin looks better than ever this morning with a well-defined circulation and healthy thunderstorm activity east of the center. It is all still east of the center due to wind shear, but convection is trying to wrap around the north side now and wind shear is weakening in the path of the storm. The concern here is that with the heat from Colin kicking out the upper low over Bermuda, the upper ridge will balloon northward during the next couple days and result in an intensifying storm approaching Bermuda, which could bring strong tropical storm force conditions and possibly hurricane-force gusts if the center passes just west of the island. It's also possible that this sneaks just east of the island which would spare them the worst of the weather, but I still think this is going over or west of them, and that will mean a very nasty weekend for those folks. This should still be a strong, high-end tropical storm by the time it gets there, and could possibly become a hurricane right after passing Bermuda, but we'll have to see how it goes. Right now nobody over there should be taking this storm lightly, and the Bermuda weather service is doing a good job of getting the word out.
A large envelope of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic may attempt to become Danielle over the next several days. Right now it has two competing centers which will need to conglomerate together to allow development. A bunch of dry air in the path of this should limit its intensity ultimately, but we'll have to see if we can at least get this named. The models look a bit too far east and this should start NW and then come WNW towards 60W, but should eventually recurve out.
Now another area in disguise that will have to be watched after this weekend is the front currently digging into the southeast US, and as the longwave trough lifts out quickly this will get left behind and try to drift over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The upper low currently northeast of the Bahamas will be backing southwest as ridging builds back into the eastern US, and when you get an old front and a trough-split together in the Gulf of Mexico, you're looking for trouble. Remember Invest 95L? It's the same kind of thing, and you can see what can happen. This may cause another ruckus about the oil spill if something materializes, but we'll have to see how it goes. It is something to keep an eye on early next week.
Wouldn't it be something if we got Danielle and Earl named by the 10th? That's 3 storms during just the first third of August! And we're not even yet to the biggest burst of the month. This season has yet to show its true colors, but they will come out, and soon.
We shall see what happens!
Tropical Storm Colin Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):
Tropical Storm Colin Track Models:
Invest 93L Track Models:
Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):
Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):
Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:
200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.