Colin threatening Bermuda; Watching for Danielle and possible homegrown mischief

By: Levi32 , 4:28 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video.



Colin looks better than ever this morning with a well-defined circulation and healthy thunderstorm activity east of the center. It is all still east of the center due to wind shear, but convection is trying to wrap around the north side now and wind shear is weakening in the path of the storm. The concern here is that with the heat from Colin kicking out the upper low over Bermuda, the upper ridge will balloon northward during the next couple days and result in an intensifying storm approaching Bermuda, which could bring strong tropical storm force conditions and possibly hurricane-force gusts if the center passes just west of the island. It's also possible that this sneaks just east of the island which would spare them the worst of the weather, but I still think this is going over or west of them, and that will mean a very nasty weekend for those folks. This should still be a strong, high-end tropical storm by the time it gets there, and could possibly become a hurricane right after passing Bermuda, but we'll have to see how it goes. Right now nobody over there should be taking this storm lightly, and the Bermuda weather service is doing a good job of getting the word out.

A large envelope of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic may attempt to become Danielle over the next several days. Right now it has two competing centers which will need to conglomerate together to allow development. A bunch of dry air in the path of this should limit its intensity ultimately, but we'll have to see if we can at least get this named. The models look a bit too far east and this should start NW and then come WNW towards 60W, but should eventually recurve out.

Now another area in disguise that will have to be watched after this weekend is the front currently digging into the southeast US, and as the longwave trough lifts out quickly this will get left behind and try to drift over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The upper low currently northeast of the Bahamas will be backing southwest as ridging builds back into the eastern US, and when you get an old front and a trough-split together in the Gulf of Mexico, you're looking for trouble. Remember Invest 95L? It's the same kind of thing, and you can see what can happen. This may cause another ruckus about the oil spill if something materializes, but we'll have to see how it goes. It is something to keep an eye on early next week.

Wouldn't it be something if we got Danielle and Earl named by the 10th? That's 3 storms during just the first third of August! And we're not even yet to the biggest burst of the month. This season has yet to show its true colors, but they will come out, and soon.

We shall see what happens!

Tropical Storm Colin Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Tropical Storm Colin Track Models:



Invest 93L Track Models:




Caribbean/East Pacific Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Central Atlantic Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):



Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis:



200mb Vertical Velocity (green areas represent upward motion associated with the MJO):







The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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24. LakeWorthFinn
11:50 PM GMT on August 08, 2010
Glad you're taking a couple of days off. We're gonna need you well and w/ batteries re-charged - soon!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
23. ryang1994
11:45 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
I'm sad...no tidbit today! =( LOL...just kidding...Seeing one tomorrow? =P

It's sad > Colin didn't take advantage of good conditions today. You said that today would be the storm's best shot at intensifying...but he didn't, so that sucks for him, and he's lost his opportunity! Are you still going with your thoughts that today was his "prime time"?
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22. Tazmanian
9:54 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


92L's been dead for 2 days. I could see 93L getting named but not becoming too strong....too much dry air in the way. "94L" I assume is the feature behind 93L. That should also be watched, but doesn't look to be in a hurry to develop. In fact nothing so far this year has been in a rush to develop out in the central-eastern Atlantic.

The thing off the SE coast will have to be watched when it gets into the eastern gulf. Right now it's only in its embryonic stage.



ok
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21. Levi32
9:52 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
462. Tazmanian 2:45 PM PDT on August 07, 2010

Quoting Levi32:
Colin is trying....but for some reason doesn't want to strengthen today. It doesn't look like he will become a hurricane, although he still may intensify a little bit before hitting Bermuda, but probably not as bad as it could have been. This has been one interesting storm to track. Even the NHC had this up to borderline hurricane intensity and admitted that Colin is doing weird things.




whats your takes on 92L 93L and per 94L and per 95L off the E coast


92L's been dead for 2 days. I could see 93L getting named but not becoming too strong....too much dry air in the way. "94L" I assume is the feature behind 93L. That should also be watched, but doesn't look to be in a hurry to develop. In fact nothing so far this year has been in a rush to develop out in the central-eastern Atlantic.

The thing off the SE coast will have to be watched when it gets into the eastern gulf. Right now it's only in its embryonic stage.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
20. Tazmanian
9:49 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
462. Tazmanian 2:45 PM PDT on August 07, 2010

Quoting Levi32:
Colin is trying....but for some reason doesn't want to strengthen today. It doesn't look like he will become a hurricane, although he still may intensify a little bit before hitting Bermuda, but probably not as bad as it could have been. This has been one interesting storm to track. Even the NHC had this up to borderline hurricane intensity and admitted that Colin is doing weird things.




whats your takes on 92L 93L and per 94L and per 95L off the E coast
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
19. Levi32
9:42 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
Colin is trying....but for some reason doesn't want to strengthen today. It doesn't look like he will become a hurricane, although he still may intensify a little bit before hitting Bermuda, but probably not as bad as it could have been. This has been one interesting storm to track. Even the NHC had this up to borderline hurricane intensity and admitted that Colin is doing weird things.
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18. KeithInSoFL
4:59 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
Hi Levi. Are we getting a new tidbit today?
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17. Levi32
2:29 AM GMT on August 07, 2010
Colin is trying again to suck the center under a convective burst. Wind shear is falling, now down to 20 knots and will be even lower tomorrow. The slowing down of Colin's forward movement will end up helping him by giving him more time to organize.



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16. ryang1994
9:36 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
TS Estelle - Newest Tropical Storm in Eastern Pacific...say hello:


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15. ho77yw00d
7:06 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Thanks again for such great work and making it easy for people like me to understand.. keep up the great work!!
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14. stormhank
6:57 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Great job Levi!!
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13. ryang1994
6:46 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
Extratropical cyclones do not necessarily come from tropical cyclones.....they are any storm in the mid-latitudes. Just a regular storm, the most common kind on earth. Nontropical is another way of saying extratropical.


Ah...okay! I think I got it! lol
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12. Levi32
6:42 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Quoting ryang1994:


So, an extratropical storm is basically the same thing as a tropical storm, except it's more north and not really in the tropics anymore! Sound like I've gotten the hang of the concept?



Meh, NFLD is kinda used to Tropical Cyclones...=P LOL...Do ya think BM (Bermuda) or NFLD will get the worse weather from this storm? *I know this is a little hard to day...because a NFLD impact is still a far ways away!*


Both may get socked but Bermuda will get the worst if the storm winds up tomorrow. If it waits until after Bermuda to wind up then NFLD will get the worst weather.

Extratropical cyclones do not necessarily come from tropical cyclones.....they are any storm in the mid-latitudes. Just a regular storm, the most common kind on earth. Nontropical is another way of saying extratropical.
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11. homelesswanderer
6:27 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Thanks Levi. Great job! :)
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10. ryang1994
5:58 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
An extratropical cyclone is just your regular cyclone in the mid-latitudes, like a winter storm. Tropical cyclones undergo extratropical transition when they leave the warm tropical waters that sustain them and start to get enhanced baroclinically when they recurve. They eventually acquire fronts and take on the appearance of a mid-latitude storm.


So, an extratropical storm is basically the same thing as a tropical storm, except it's more north and not really in the tropics anymore! Sound like I've gotten the hang of the concept?

Quoting Levi32:
By the time the storm nears NFLD it will probably be more wrapped up, and although the worst of the weather will remain east of the center you can't rule out a nasty day for the tip of NFLD.


Meh, NFLD is kinda used to Tropical Cyclones...=P LOL...Do ya think BM (Bermuda) or NFLD will get the worse weather from this storm? *I know this is a little hard to day...because a NFLD impact is still a far ways away!*
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
9. Levi32
5:43 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Quoting ryang1994:
Thanks for the update Levi! AWESOME!!!!

Question for you:

I was reading the NHC advisories, and noticed that they said this:

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AT ABOUT 72 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR...WITH THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECASTING COLIN TO REMAIN A STRONG CYCLONE THROUGH THAT PROCESS.

What is the difference between a tropical storm when it becomes "extratropical"? What is "extratropical transition; how does take place/what happens when it takes place?

I was just thinking that, seeing the track for Colin, that it is more or less headed for the Eastern tip of NFLD. It looks like the Centre will pass just East of the "island". That will spare them of most of the bad weather, as long as Colin stays in this form (all convection to East of Centre). Do you expect it to look fairly the same when it reaches that point, or is that too far out for you to speculate on it?

Thanks! =)


An extratropical cyclone is just your regular cyclone in the mid-latitudes, like a winter storm. Tropical cyclones undergo extratropical transition when they leave the warm tropical waters that sustain them and start to get enhanced baroclinically when they recurve. They eventually acquire fronts and take on the appearance of a mid-latitude storm.

By the time the storm nears NFLD it will probably be more wrapped up, and although the worst of the weather will remain east of the center you can't rule out a nasty day for the tip of NFLD.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
8. ryang1994
5:38 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Thanks for the update Levi! AWESOME!!!!

Question for you:

I was reading the NHC advisories, and noticed that they said this:

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AT ABOUT 72 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR...WITH THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECASTING COLIN TO REMAIN A STRONG CYCLONE THROUGH THAT PROCESS.

What is the difference between a tropical storm when it becomes "extratropical"? What is "extratropical transition; how does take place/what happens when it takes place?

I was just thinking that, seeing the track for Colin, that it is more or less headed for the Eastern tip of NFLD. It looks like the Centre will pass just East of the "island". That will spare them of most of the bad weather, as long as Colin stays in this form (all convection to East of Centre). Do you expect it to look fairly the same when it reaches that point, or is that too far out for you to speculate on it?

Thanks! =)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
7. Hoff511
5:32 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Thanks Levi! Great work as usual.
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6. InTheCone
5:11 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Thanks Levi, going to keep an eye on that area in the gulf, don't need any sneaky "mischief"!
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5. MiamiHurricanes09
5:03 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Thanks for the update as usual Levi!
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4. JBirdFireMedic
4:58 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Thanks Levi!
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3. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:54 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Nice Video Levi!

Great Entry!
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2. MSInland05
4:49 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Thanks Levi. When you said a sneaker was about I knew where you were headed. Thanks again, these video's help out alot.
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1. cre13
4:47 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Keep the updates comin' Levi! Thank you again for all of your hard work :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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About Levi32

Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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