If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video.
A lot of stuff to show you on the video today....had to go through it a little fast to stay under the time limit so hopefully it's comprehensible.
Colin remains a very ragged storm with little convection and this is all thanks to the very strong low-level flow racing this off to the WNW at 25-30mph. A flow this fast doesn't allow much surface convergence and punches dry air into the system. It also shears it because the low-level winds are much faster than the upper-level winds. Yesterday I thought this had a chance to be a strong-end tropical storm near the islands but am less excited about that today. Despite moving over warmer waters today this could remain on the weak side as a 35-40 knot TS when it nears the NE Caribbean. I could see it getting up to 50 knots but that's probably about it as far as the islands are concerned. The NHC mentioned that this could even open back up into a tropical wave today, and while I don't think it will fully open up, the circulation is barely closed and will have a hard time getting any stronger.
Beyond the islands it will be running into the TUTT and since this storm hasn't strengthened it isn't outputting much heat, and thus is at the mercy of the TUTT's shearing force. This will likely weaken the system if it hasn't already fallen apart, and then there is a chance for some restrengthening once it gets out to the other side of the TUTT. With dry air around and the small size of the system I don't see this as being a huge threat to the SE US intensity-wise, and at this time I don't think anyone there need worry about a strong hurricane closing in this weekend. This looks like a weaker system, but we'll have to see what it does north of the islands.
The track from the NHC and the model consensus still looks too far north and east. Colin is already south of the position they had it in at 50W. The GFS and CMC have the best ideas, and I think it will be somewhere in between them. This should come just north of the islands and get west of 75W, and although this could still recurve out without hitting the US coast, my forecast still stands for this to threaten and impact the SE US coast. This doesn't have to mean a full landfall, but I do think it will get at least close enough to spread its weather over land, which is what is meant by "impact". The upper pattern is very fragile with the upper trough diving down and turning this north, but the trough leaves as fast as it came, leaving a weak ridge building in and trying to hold Colin down to the south. The GFS shows a decoupling of the system with the surface energy escaping north while the 500mb low is left behind, which implies the tendency to stay to the south. This will likely meander very slowly off the southeast coast during the 5-8 day period trying to make up its mind what to do, and we'll have to see how healthy of a system it is by the time it gets there.
Elsewhere....a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean has to be watched for possible mischief when it gets into the western Caribbean in a couple days. This may try to lift northwest into the Gulf of Mexico and will have to be monitored as it will be under upper ridging and a far more favorable environment than Colin is currently dealing with. A tropical wave coming in behind Colin may try to develop later this week and into next week.
The SOI is tanking negative in the dailies and I show in the video how the pressures have crashed in the Pacific. This is like a mini Nino burst in the middle of a La Nina pattern with a shot of westerlies coming across the Pacific. When these arrive in the east we may see the eastern Pacific try to eek out a storm (they are way overdue for one) but then given the nature of the La Nina pattern overall this burst will keep going right across into the Atlantic, and these things can cause fun and games down the road in 1-2 weeks. The westerlies when they come across focus convergence in the Atlantic and what can sometimes happen is that the burst supports a trough diving into the eastern US but then it gets kicked out really fast by the overall La Nina pattern returning, and sometimes you can get a trough-split that can cause mischief in the SW Atlantic or ventilate something coming out of the deep tropics. We'll have to watch to see what this does in our area of the world near the middle of the month.
The MJO is also coming into our area of the world during the middle part of the month and is way ahead of the model projections as expected. The Atlantic is gearing up for the main event which will be a burst of storms that may not stop from mid-August to October. 18 named storms is still very much on the table. Get ready for the show. It's coming.
We shall see what happens!
Tropical Storm Colin Visible/IR2 Satellite (click image for loop):