Andres grazing Mexico; Atlantic trough-split to be watched

By: Levi32 , 4:10 PM GMT on June 23, 2009

Update 5:30 eastern time:

Andres has been upgraded to a hurricane according to the latest advisory from the NHC. This is based on the 65kt surface winds found by a recon flight earlier this afternoon. This upgrade can be a bit deceiving because Andres is not strengthening. He is in fact, weakening, and has lost almost all of his deep convection, especially over and north of the center, due to dry air entrainment, proximity to land, and unfavorable upper-level conditions. What this tells us is that Andres was likely already a hurricane last night, and may have reached a peak intensity of around 80 knots - a solid Cat 1 hurricane. Since last night the hurricane has been weakening as it lost its convection and inner core structure, and is only barely a hurricane now. Andres has been able to efficiently hold off rapid weakening due to his impressive low-level structure, but he likely won't stay a hurricane for long. Gradual weakening should continue into tonight with more steady and rapid weakening by tomorrow as the system moves into a stable airmass over colder SSTs.

Tropical Tidbit from 12:00pm EDT Tuesday, June 23, 2009:

Video Discussion:

Turn up the volume, and click HD if the quality is too low:



Tropical Storm Andres:

Despite advisories from the NHC keeping Andres a 70mph tropical storm, he appears to have weakened overnight. Cloud tops within the CDO have warmed and the core structure is ragged and disorganized. The 3 main factors that have caused this weakening that I outlined yesterday are 1) Lack of poleward outflow 2) Proximity to land 3) Low ocean heat content and dry, stable air associated with low SSTs to the NW. On Satellite Imagery you can see the outflow boundary to Andres' northwest that is trying to expand north but is getting shunted southward by an upper low over central Mexico and the big upper ridge in the NW Gulf of Mexico. I believe this lack of favorable upper-level conditions to be the primary reason for Andres' decline. Proximity to land may also be playing a role here, and on its current track Andres will be passing very close to the Mexican coast in the next 24 hours, and may even make landfall briefly if his track deviates even a little to the NE.

Andres is being steered NW on the SW periphery of the sub-tropical high over the NW Gulf of Mexico, and this high is forecast to build westward over the next few days, eventually curving Andres to the west as he moves over cold SSTs and dissipates. Some of the track models now are indicating that the upper trough over California may be slow in lifting out and allowing the ridge to build west, which may take Andres closer to the Baja Peninsula than originally thought. If this verifies Baja will likely only get some light rain and nothing worse than that.

I do not expect Andres to significantly strengthen again, but he still has a 12-18 hour window to reach my forecasted intensity of a minimal Cat 1 hurricane. He was only 5mph short of it last night according to the NHC. The NHC has also been forecasting a maximum intensity of a border-line hurricane, and continues to do so this morning. A recon plane is en route to the system as I type, and will give a clearer picture of the strength and health of Andres. I do not expect Andres to reach hurricane intensity, and I think this is likely the start of a gradual weakening period that will continue for the rest of Andres' existence. A hurricane warning is still in effect for part of the Mexican coastline. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts and information.

Atlantic:

The Atlantic basin is still quiet for the most part. The trough split that will be occurring in 2-3 days in the Gulf of Mexico will have to be watched as the old frontal boundary extending from east of Florida into the GOM will have to be watched for little lows forming along it. Right now nothing significant is being forecasted by the models but this type of a situation must always be watched. The GFS and NOGAPS try to form something in the western Caribbean in 4-6 days, likely from the tropical wave currently passing through the windward islands. This area will have to be watched as well as the TUTT lifts out and an upper anticyclone builds over the NW Caribbean during that time. The GFS is forecasting some development of an African wave that will exit the coast in 48 hours. With the eastern Atlantic TUTT also forecasted to lift out there may be some breathing room for development so I will keep an eye on that as well.

The disturbance in the Bay of Campeche has slightly increased thunderstorm activity but remains disorganized and I still don't see it as a threat to develop, as it will run out of time and water soon as it gets steered NW inland over Mexico.

We shall see what happens!

NASA High-Resolution Visible Loop of Andres and BOC disturbance

National Hurricane Center official Andres forecast track:



Andres Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)



Caribbean Visible Satellite: (click image for loop)





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39. Levi32
5:46 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
Thanks StSimons :) Have a good night.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
37. Levi32
5:35 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
Quoting quasigeostropic:
Levi, the basic physics concepts I introduced in the hurricane forecasting tutorial, are some of the FOUNDATIONS of physics to know for weather! Everything else builds off that...


Yeah I'm familiar with most of those core concepts. I've heard AP physics courses get really mathy and all that but I have yet to see the textbook lol.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
That you I hear in the video? Cool!


Yup! Still working on building confidence in my voice....I've never recorded myself before and it's a bit embarrassing. This is only my 4th video. It's also hard to express my thoughts fluently aloud when I'm so used to writing them down instead.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
35. quasigeostropic
5:31 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
Levi, the basic physics concepts I introduced in the hurricane forecasting tutorial, are some of the FOUNDATIONS of physics to know for weather! Everything else builds off that...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
32. Levi32
5:29 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
Quoting quasigeostropic:
Levi, surprisingly, most of the math in college wasn't that bad(even though it got really tough many times).....It requires CONCENTRATION, as ONE mistake means getting the whole problem wrong....If you are strong in math, I think you can make it...Basically my math requirements were:

calculus I,II,&III. Ordinary differential equations. Partial differential equations.

Note, these were physics based, so it made it much more tough....I believe you can make it! You are smart!!


Oh boy I hope so....I'm ok at math I guess but let's put it this way I'm not good enough to be able to teach Calculus to someone else lol. I haven't taken much physics yet so I have yet to discover that realm.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
31. quasigeostropic
5:28 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
Levi, if I could hire you for a weather job, I'd hire you on the spot!!!lol...forget college!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
29. quasigeostropic
5:26 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
Levi, surprisingly, most of the math in college wasn't that bad(even though it got really tough many times).....It requires CONCENTRATION, as ONE mistake means getting the whole problem wrong....If you are strong in math, I think you can make it...Basically my math requirements were:

calculus I,II,&III. Ordinary differential equations. Partial differential equations.

Note, these were physics based, so it made it much more tough....I believe you can make it! You are smart!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
27. Levi32
5:25 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
Oh wow my blog header top thingy was gone....I think I resurrected it....Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra is back!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
26. Levi32
5:25 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Are you the same levi32 that I saw posting on weatherguy03's blog? :)


Yeah I finally found him after all this time lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
24. Levi32
5:21 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
Well I'm half-way there......I can take derivatives! LOL....I finished Calculus for my Highschool Junior year just a few months ago. Long way to go before I can take college MET courses though.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
23. quasigeostropic
5:17 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
nah Levi....why would I do such a silly thing like that???hehe.....

When they learn to linearize and take a partial derivative of the omega equation, then I'll hit more of the advanced stuff!!!haha....

Dont worry, I'm only teasing!=)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
22. Levi32
5:14 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
Now now don't scare the audience away before the show even starts!! lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
21. quasigeostropic
5:12 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
I could demonstrate quasigeostrophic flow and superadiabatic lapse rates and confuse the living daylights out of everyone!!!mwaahahaa!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
20. Levi32
5:11 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
Quoting quasigeostropic:
No Levi....I graduated with a B.S. degree in meteorology about 1 yr ago(April 2008)...

Come on buddy, you're slacking!!!!hehe


Well I haven't seen one of your blogs since 2007 I think! Lol congratulations!! That is totally awesome.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
19. Levi32
5:10 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
Yeah you know seriously wouldn't it be tremendous if we got people like Bob, StormW, Weather456, and you all doing video updates. I know how much people value graphical illustration. A picture is worth 1000 words....and a motion picture is priceless =)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
18. quasigeostropic
5:08 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
No Levi....I graduated with a B.S. degree in meteorology about 1 yr ago(April 2008)...

Come on buddy, you're slacking!!!!hehe
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
17. Levi32
5:04 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
Quoting quasigeostropic:
Heya Levi...Good to see ya again buddy! Been a while now since we last brainstormed weather!lol

Maybe I could do a bunch of experiments on air, demonstrating weather concepts, so people could see it in 3D!


I think you definitely should :) After all you're learning about them on a college level and getting them pounded in your head......you are still going to college right?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
16. quasigeostropic
5:03 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
Heya Levi...Good to see ya again buddy! Been a while now since we last brainstormed weather!lol

Maybe I could do a bunch of experiments on air, demonstrating weather concepts, so people could see it in 3D!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
15. Levi32
4:57 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
ALEC!!!!!!

I haven't seen you in......how long?? Wow it's great to see yah!

Yeah that would be so awesome wouldn't it =) We'll give good ole' stormtop a run for his britches.

I think I'm about to get Bob (weatherguy03, not on WU anymore) to start making his own videos with the freeware I found as well. It's going to be the next generation of tropical dicussions on weather forums lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
14. quasigeostropic
4:52 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
actually, I think stormtop is blocking Levi's podcasts.....I'll fax that ole buddy a complaint....hehe...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
13. quasigeostropic
4:49 AM GMT on June 24, 2009
Levi, you are tearing the place up!!! You're too smart buddy!!!hehe....

Wouldn't that be cool if we teamed up and built our own stormtop version of a weather center, and competed with the NHC???...haha...I know a few others we could recruit...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
12. Levi32
9:55 PM GMT on June 23, 2009
Quoting LowerCal:
wanderer, Levi, the video was invisible to me too but when I clicked on the area where it was supposed to be it appeared.


Hm that is odd....Youtube is having technical issues right now and won't let me sign in and stuff like that. Maybe that has something to do with it. Thanks Cal.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
11. LowerCal
9:49 PM GMT on June 23, 2009
wanderer, Levi, the video was invisible to me too but when I clicked on the area where it was supposed to be it appeared.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
10. Levi32
9:22 PM GMT on June 23, 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Thank you for the update. I couldnt get your video one to show up. Its just not there. Oh well I'm sure its me since everyone else saw it. :)


Maybe the computer you're on blocks youtube videos or something......Here's the direct link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
9. homelesswanderer
8:49 PM GMT on June 23, 2009
Thank you for the update. I couldnt get your video one to show up. Its just not there. Oh well I'm sure its me since everyone else saw it. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
8. Levi32
6:38 PM GMT on June 23, 2009
Andres appears to indeed be falling apart this afternoon. Satellite Imagery shows the low-level center now completely exposed with only moderate convection south of the center. It appears that lack of upper-level outflow, ingestion of dry stable air from the NW, and proximity to the Mexican coastline are the primary causes of this collapse. The recon plane found a central pressure of 988mb with surface winds around 60kts, very surprising for a system with this satellite presentation. I expect these numbers will begin to weaken steadily very soon. Andres is no longer producing any significant rainfall over the Mexican mainland but scattered showers will continue to rake the coast throughout today. It looks like Andres is well past his peak and will start to steadily weaken into tonight and tomorrow.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
7. Levi32
5:52 PM GMT on June 23, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:
Better, better, better! :)

Remember rule #1...and don't be rushed in accomplishing it! I find that if you do it in pieces and then assemble them, it's easier to do a re-take if there's a flub.

Really great work, Levi! :)


Yes sir, Oz sir!

The software I use makes it hard to make pieces and then tie them together. If I flub up I just pause, find the spot, and record over it :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. mobal
5:39 PM GMT on June 23, 2009
Video, how COOL!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. RENONV
5:13 PM GMT on June 23, 2009
Your video forecasts are getting better everday. Thanks for the up-date.

Lenny
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. Levi32
4:49 PM GMT on June 23, 2009
Thanks Justin and Judy =)

It must be the day for J-names lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2. Chicklit
4:37 PM GMT on June 23, 2009
Levi,
You are articulate, knowledgeable, and your analysis is well-organized.
Thanks for the informative update.
Best Regards,
Judy
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. seminolesfan
4:28 PM GMT on June 23, 2009
Nice screencast, Levi. I love the information density throughout.

Keep up the great work, you are an extremely valuable asset to WU.

Justin
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.

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