Masters student in tropical meteorology at FSU. Raised in Alaskan blizzards, but drawn toward tropical cyclones by their superior PGF.
By: Levi32, 12:58 AM GMT on July 28, 2006
Two areas of disturbed weather in the tropics have a possibility of development over the next few days. One is a potent tropical wave covering the eastern caribbean and up into the Bahamas. Thunderstorms have been increasing over the last day or two, but no signs of organization yet. This wave could enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, where it will have a better chance to organize.
The second area is another tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave has been labled Invest 99L by the navy, and convection has been consentrating over a weak surface low. Wind shear is moderately strong in the tropical Atlantic, which will make rapid development difficult, but I think this system does have a chance, especially if it makes it to the caribbean. The GFS is indicating a weakness developing in the mid-Atlantic ridge over the next few days, which is leading the first model runs to direct this wave northwest east of the caribbean. I do think the wave will take on a more northerly motion in a couple days, but right now I think its destination is the Caribbean. The NHC has mentioned the possibility of slow development of this second wave, but says that the marginal upper level winds will hinder significant development.
We'll see what happens!
Atlantic Water Vapor Loop
SSD Tropical Formation Probability and other Maps
CIMSS Atlantic Satellite Analysis Maps
Current Model Plots for 99L
Navy Tropical Page
National Hurricane Center
Click for loop
Click for loop
By: Levi32, 5:18 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Well this is quite a relief! For the last 4 years summer has been exceptionally hot and dry in central and southern Alaska. The last couple years have had the city almost run out of drinking water. Unbearable record breaking heat scorched us almost every day. The longest stretch without a drop of rain was 2 1/2 months in 2004, at least at my house. That has all gone away this summer. Granted it's far from over, but the first half of summer has been normal by Alaskan standards. We've had our fair share of sun, but the clouds have been filling the sky for some weeks now, with temps in the 50s every day. Rain showers and teasing peaks of sun are all we get in the afternoon.
This is what Alaskan summers are supposed to be....BORING. This is how I remember it when I was little. Always cloudy always raining with only a couple weeks worth of sunny days to go around during summer time. It's sad for the tourists, who can't see the rainveiled mountains in their summer glory, nor can I wear shorts and walk through the tall grass and forests with sunshine streaming in.
Oh well, (*sigh*) at least the drought is ended. That's one good thing I guess. Hopefully there will be more sunny days in August. I hope you all have a great week! Happy blogging!
Webcam of Kachemak Bay in Homer. See how dreary it looks out there!
Updated: 5:20 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.