Lisa took a bullet... and dodged the NHC!

By: LeMoyne , 9:42 AM GMT on September 26, 2010

Anybody notice Lisa is 200nm and 90 degrees off track now after being hit by the jet stream at noon UTC on 9.25.10 !?!

Lisa had a Jet Stream Shear and Guidance Event [JSGE] around midday UTC 0925. Lisa recoiled to a heading of ENE (1215-2215 UTC). Overnight, she has come around to NE and trending towards N while picking up strength and speed.

No mention of any of this in the NHC 5PM and 11PM AST forecasts on 9.25 and still no mention in the NHC 5AM AST forecast on 9.26. Lisa is actually pretty close to the Canary Islands now...

Here's the most recent proof that Lisa is NOT just a dying tropical depression (0845 floater-vis on 926):

Lisa going north full steam ahead and recycling outflow.

5AM AST Forecast gives position as 25.1N 29.0W
That is on the swirl of fog and clouds just left of Lisa's rear.
Center is at 25.5W 26.5N from 0845 floater funktop.
Approx core diameter is ~2.75 to 3 degrees or 140 miles across. Core is surrounded by ring of feeder vortices and several other helper/recycler vortices are visible.

The only possible explanation of how the NHC missed the damage, recoil, repair, great overnight activity, turn from NE towards N, strengthening and acceleration of Lisa is that they didn't look.

A few highlights....

I saw the JSGE that disassembled Lisa's mid-level convection and her reassembly while on a recoil course.
Will post data+notes and story on the aftermath on separate blogs. A jet from the polar circulation related to the trough at about 30W (on 9.26.10 8AM UTC) swept across Lisa from SW to NE. Lisa fell apart but came right back together.

Aftermath of JSGE (flt-vis 0925 1845) Bad Lisa ...Smokin!!!

Broken off west arm is goin' WSW and Lisa goin' ENE.
Mid-level convection vortices crawling back on through spiral path on rear of Lisa going ENE.


A Clue At Dusk (AtlTropWide-viz 0925 1845) Before Lisa slips into her murk

~~Lisa just after dark with more helpers comin on board on lit spiral path - already way off track well before 11PM AST 0925.

Busy Night after JSGE:
It is busy time in Lisa (flt-bd-Dvorak 0926 0345) The City of Vortices


Center at about 25.5W 24.5N ? with core growing ? and back to going northeast while salvaging former W arm.
ADT peak is leakage out of massive snow/fog shunt to W helper vortices from N side and Lisa core (Lisa recycles her outflow). Western bright ring is W arm reattachment/salvage process.

Lisa took a bullet... And dodged the NHC!

And even if they look at her the ADT may well be wrong because LISA IS RECYCLING HER OUTFLOW and has been for days.
Tried to warn people days ago..now Lisa's gone stealth!!

Very soon we will learn :: Is Lisa ready for another trough? She is feeling the cold wind right now... seems to be veering to NE but not looking too shearful right now (6AM EDT 9.26) ...
We will see - well, at least I will, after I get some rest.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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