LRandyB's Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion For the Week of June 17th

By: LRandyB, 4:03 AM GMT on June 18, 2007

Well, I haven't updated for a couple of weeks as there hasn't been much to really talk about. And there really hasn't been much of a change during the last week but I'll go over the current pattern in the tropics anyway!

High pressure currently dominates the Gulf and most of the Caribbean and Atlantic producing mostly clear skies and very little precipitation over most of the region. A trough of low pressure originating from a low pressure system in the Atlantic extends across S FL into the Florida Straits and out over the Yucatan Peninsula. This trough has been producing some showers and thunderstorms for the last few days and a low pressure center that developed along this trough off the Yucatan prompted NHC to task the Hurricane Hunters to investigate late last week but that tasking canceled as the area of low pressure lost it's definition.

The rest of the Caribbean is clear as is most of the Atlantic Ocean.

The only item of interest right now is a persistant easterly wave near 46W between 5N and 10N. This wave has persisted across most of the Atlantic this past week and is well defined on satellite. However, there has been no indication of development. Water temps in the open Atlantic are still not quite to a point that supports good tropical development. And on it's current track, this wave is entering an area of stronger SW shear and due to lack of any steering that might pull it north, it'll most likely simply go ashore in South America.

Have a great week!



Tropical Weather Discussion For the Week of June 4th

By: LRandyB, 4:37 AM GMT on June 04, 2007

The Hurricane Season has arrived. And already we've had two named storms. Andrea, which occured before the season even started, and Barry just this past week. Both have proven to be little more than much needed rain events for the SE US. We can only hope that will be the trend for the season.

There's isn't anything looming on the horiizon at the moment. Let's take a look.....

In the Gulf of Mexico......

You couldn't ask for much much better weather than the Gulf is experiencing right now. A broad deep trough covers most of the eastern half of the US and extends down to near the Gulf. At the surface this trough is reflected by a frontal system with a low, the remains of Barry, spinning near the NC coast and the cold front extending down into the Bahamas. In the wake of this front, a weak dry high pressure at the surface is keeping things quiet in the Gulf. In the mid to upper levels, dry air and strong westerly flow around the base of the trough is keeping shear values high throughout the area.

In the Caribbean....

A high pressure circulation surface and aloft is centered near the Caymen Islands and dominates most of the Caribbean. In fact all but the extreme east Caribbean is under the high pressure circulation (called anti-cyclonic flow). Showers and thunderstorms around the periphery of this high ring the Caribbean over the land areas such as Cuba, Central America and the Yucatan but nothing of concern.
The extreme eastern Caribbean over the Lesser Antilles is under the flow around another deep trough with an upper low center near 20N 55W. Yet again, a strong shear area.

In the Atlantic....

The low and frontal system off the east coast of the US dominates the weather in the western Atlantic. Another deep trough, as I just mention lies near 55W and extends down into the eastern Caribbean. High pressure dominates the tropical Atlantic east of about 45W.

Nothing shows up in the models at this point so I think we're ok for the week.

Have a great week!



The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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I was an AF aviation weather forecaster for 12 years, then 15 years as a dropsonde systems operator with the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters.

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