LRandyB's Tropical Weather Discussion

Gulf Coast Winter Weather Mon Mar 26th 700pm CDT

By: LRandyB, 12:06 AM GMT on March 27, 2007

Hi folks!

Well we're seeing pretty much a repeat of last week in the weather pattern.

An upper level low in west central TX has a bit of a mid level jet max associated with it which is allowing for some convection in central TX. But the low is weakening as it moves NE into the strong ridge that has kept our weather nice for the last week. At the moment, it looks like central TX is the only area that will get any significant weather with this system. It'll open into an open wave by the time it gets into AR and what weather is left with it will be well north of the Gulf Coast.

The next system to be concerned about is currently approaching the west coast. Models bring a deep upper trough SE into the southern plains by mid-week and at the moment, they do show some decent upper level dynamics with this system so there is potential for some severe storms as this system works it's way SE and east across the country.

Timing looks like TX getting the trough and front through Thursday into Friday morning, Friday into Saturday for the mid-Gulf coast states, and Saturday into Sunday for the eastern Gulf. But by the time the system gets that far east, most of the energy is mostly north of the coast so I'd only expect to see a slight chance of precip from Pensacola eastward (is this starting to sound like a broken record?? Welcome to summer.. almost) and you'll be lucky to see rain on the FL peninsula. For that matter, NWS offices along the central Gulf coast are only forecasting precip chances in the 20-40% range.

Once that system goes through though, it'll cool and dry the air at least a bit for the rest of the weekend!

Have a great week!

Randy

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Gulf Coast Winter Weather Mon Mar 19th 1000am CDT

By: LRandyB, 3:45 PM GMT on March 19, 2007

Good morning everyone! A beautiful week is in store for the Gulf Coast! There really isn't a lot to talk about but let's see if I can put my weatherman training to good use and make it sound good........

A large strong surface high pressure system is sitting off the central Altantic coast and the surface ridge extends SW into the deep south. This high pressure system is being supported by a strong ridge in the upper levels across the eastern half of the US. A deep trough in the upper levels sits over the Pacific coast. As it deepens, it helps to build the ridge over the eastern US. But at some point the models develop a cut off low at the base of that trough just off the coast of Baja California. As the low cut's off, the remainder of the trough will begin to push east. But the ridge is holding firm in the low levels in the SE US so the frontal system associated with that trough will stall out just north and NW of the Gulf Coast region. The models hint at the cut off low kicking out over the weekend but the current track of that low would still keep the weather mainly north of the coast so we'll have to wait and see how it all pans out.

The bottom line is, at the moment, the whole week looks quite nice for the Gulf Coast. A south or southeasterly flow across all but the Gulf Coast of FL will keep temps a bit above normal and humdities high. We could see some localized morning fog with this flow pattern by mid-week across the central Gulf coast states. But that's about it.

The only other weather of significance this morning is a wind advisory across SE TX as the pressure gradient between the ridge and a mid-level low in the TX panhandle creates some stronger south winds along the coast. But that low is filling pretty quickly and I would expect the winds to die down by sunset tonight!


Have a great week and get out there and enjoy this wonderful spring weather!

Randy

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Gulf Coast Winter Weather Mon Mar 12th 600am CDT

By: LRandyB, 11:28 AM GMT on March 12, 2007

Good morning everyone! I hope everyone had a great weekend! The weather over the weekend was actually quite nice across most of the Gulf Coast. That will change this week but by next weekend, everyone should be enjoying wonderful weather once again!

Here's what the current synoptic situation looks like.......

There are two main features at the moment affecting Gulf Coast weather. First is a cut off upper level low over SE New Mexico. This low at the moment is sitting and spinning there in NM but it is kicking off some upper level shortwave troughs toward the east and one of those is currently tracking across central TX this morning. As a result, a line of moderate to severe thunderstorms is tracking eastward across SE TX. At this hour the line is passing through the Houston area. A tornado watch is in effect for the SE TX coastline and a severe thunderstorm watch has just expired in that area. As this line and it's trough moves away from the cut off low and out from under the uper level difluence on the east side of the low, I would expect it to lose it's punch. Still, folks in SE and south central LA may still see some scattered showers and thunderstorms as this line falls apart during it's eastward track.

The other main feature influencing our weater this morning is an upper level ridge over most of the central and eastern Gulf Coast. This ridge is actually being induced by the cut off low so that low is actually going to help the weather for most of us today. The ridge wll bring dry weather and warmer than usual temps across south MS and AL as well as western FL for another day or two.

As the week wears on, the models forecast that upper low to begin to kick out into the MS River Valley and on to the east coast. As it does so, it's also expected to open up into an open wave rather than a closed low. This will be good for us because that means as the low opens up into a wave, the upper level energy associated with it will almost immediatly begin to outrun the wave so the wave/trough will lose a lot of it's punch as it passes over much of the Gulf Coast this week. Still, there will be enough energy there to produce showers and thunderstorms starting in TX tonight and tomorrow and spreading east toward the FL panhandle by Thursday. As the low approaches the east coast, a deep upper level trough will catch up with it and help to kick it on up the east coast. That deep trough will also help push some cooler air in behind it and we'll see a fairly dry cold front push through behind the wave. That front should clear Tampa and the the rest of the Gulf Coast by late Friday. Tampa won't have to worry too much about the front. By that time, what's left of the energy associated with that low/wave will be well north. You might still see some scattered showers and thunderstorms in Tampa but nothing severe or organized.

Behind the front, high pressure builds back in with some spring like tempuratures so next weekend should be quite nice once again!

Enjoy your Monday! :-)

Randy

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Gulf Coast Winter Weather Fri Mar 2nd 1200pm CST

By: LRandyB, 6:38 PM GMT on March 02, 2007

Hi folks! As most of you know, I am back on the warm sunny Gulf Coast after a two week stay in Anchorage, Alaska. I had a good trip. Did some flying and some sight seeing. I brought back gifts for the family and a flu that is kicking my rear end. But hopefully I'm on the downhill side of the flu.

Spring is just about on us and you can tell it by the weather. After a bout of severe weather over the last few days, it looks like we should enjoy some spring weather here on the Gulf coast.

The frontal boundary that produced tornados over the deep south this week is now over the Gulf of Mexico and extends east over the northern FL peninsula. At the moment, the winds along the frontal boundary are becoming parallel to the front which basically means the front is stalling out and is losing a lot of it's punch. But it will mean that central FL can expect to see an increased chance of showers through the weekend before a weak mid-level trough pushes what's left of it off the east coast Monday.

Behind that front high pressure builds in and looks to stay in place at least through the middle of nex week if not through the end of the week. Cooler more seasonable temps can be expected along most of the Gulf Coast although it'll remain pretty warm in S FL through mid-week. But even along the rest of the Gulf coast, as the airmass sits and warms up, we'll see a return of warmer temps and moisture by mid-week.

So get out and enjoy the weather!!!!

Randy

Updated: 4:10 PM GMT on March 04, 2007

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I was an AF aviation weather forecaster for 12 years, then 15 years as a dropsonde systems operator with the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters.

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