Tropical weather analysis - November 4, 2012

By: KoritheMan , 6:06 AM GMT on November 04, 2012

Invest 90E

An area of low pressure off over the eastern Pacific about 380 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo is moving little. The low has a well-defined surface circulation as denoted by scatterometer, satellite, and microwave data, but strong southwesterly shear is keeping the small center completely exposed. The low is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms to the northeast of the center for several hundred miles.



Figure 1. Latest infrared satellite image of Invest 90E. Image credit: NOAA

This activity is affecting the Mexican coast between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, but surface observations suggest that there is little wind accompanying the thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to remain highly unfavorable for additional development to occur as the low drifts slowly northwestward, then gradually turns west-northwestward away from Mexico. If the system were deeper, it would gravitate toward the mid-level flow on a path towards Mexico, but since it is devoid of convection, it will tend to follow the lower-tropospheric steering.

Probability of development in 48 hours: 20%


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 4 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

4. WunderAlertBot
6:17 AM GMT on November 09, 2012
KoritheMan has created a new entry.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. wxchaser97
6:30 AM GMT on November 04, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


At least I didn't blog about a remnant low...

Rosa isn't a remnant low until the NHC says it is. But yeah you got me on that.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2. KoritheMan
6:14 AM GMT on November 04, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:
*yawn* Jk...
Thanks Kori.


At least I didn't blog about a remnant low...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. wxchaser97
6:12 AM GMT on November 04, 2012
*yawn* Jk...
Thanks Kori.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 4 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

KoritheMan's WunderBlog

About KoritheMan

Basement-dwelling pseudo-otaku with a thrill for forecasting on the side.

KoritheMan's Recent Photos

Me
Hurricane Dennis making landfall.
SSJ2 Gohan
Porygon