Tropical weather analysis - August 14, 2011

By: KoritheMan , 12:15 AM GMT on August 15, 2011

Gert

Tropical Storm Gert formed today, and is heading in the direction of Bermuda. As of the latest NHC intermediate advisory, here is the most recent information on this storm:

Wind: 45 mph, with higher gusts
Location: 29.5°N 63.2°W
Movement: NNW at 8 mph
Pressure: 1008 mb
Category: Tropical storm (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)

Visible satellite loops reveal that the low-level center is underneath the convection, which is the opposite of what was happening 12 hours ago, when the center was entirely removed from the shower activity.



Figure 1. Latest infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Gert, courtesy of NOAA's Satellite Services Division (SSD).

The surrounding environment has clearly become more conducive, and there is little reason to assume Gert will not continue to at least gradually intensify.

Gert is currently over SSTS of around 28C, which is more than adequate for continued intensification. However, objective SST analyses suggests that the cyclone will encounter the 26C isotherm in about 24 hours.

On the plus side, water vapor imagery suggests that Gert has managed to considerably moisten the environment immediately surrounding the tropical cyclone, which may allow it to avert the otherwise detrimental effects of the large scale subsidence that is still present to the west of the storm.

Considering the above, Gert probably doesn't have time to become a hurricane (although there is still an outside chance of this). However, Bermuda should anticipate the possibility of a moderate to strong tropical storm (60 to 70 mph) passing near them tomorrow. However, Gert is likely to pass just east of Bermuda, leaving them on the weaker side of the storm.

Gert should turn northward early tomorrow morning, as synoptic steering data indicates that the ridge is weakening along 60W with the approach of a deep-layered trough to the west. This trough will undergo further amplification as a shortwave trough currently over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic translates eastward.

By early tomorrow evening, Gert should begin moving northeast and away from Bermuda as the storm gets trapped in high-latitude southwesterly flow associated with the aforementioned trough. Extratropical transition should occur early on Wednesday as Gert enters an increasingly baroclinic environment.

Watches and warnings

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

Elsewhere

Elsewhere in the tropics, persistent Invest 92L still lingers, but significant development is unlikely due to proximity to Tropical Storm Gert. There is currently about 20 knots of northwesterly shear infringing on the storm due to outflow from Gert. Although environmental conditions may briefly become more favorable as Gert pulls away, significant development appears unlikely due to passage over progressively cooling sea surface temperatures and dry mid-level air in the wake of Gert.

Former Invest 93L is still chugging along. Conditions may improve from this point onward, and this wave will still need to be watched as it enters traverses the Caribbean next week. The models are not enthusiastic about development, but then again, have we actually seen a real consensus for development all year?

Also, I want to remind everyone that even though we are behind by a few days in terms of the climatological advent of the first hurricane, several seasons have started even later in this regard, including during the current active era we have witnessed since 1995. The storms will come. It's not a question of if -- it's a question of when.

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2. downdraugh24
1:02 AM GMT on August 15, 2011
lets hope there is no surprise with ex-93l while it crosses the caribbean sea !thanks for the update
Member Since: September 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 37
1. Thrawst
12:31 AM GMT on August 15, 2011
Great update!
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 52 Comments: 1995

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