Basement-dwelling pseudo-otaku with a thrill for forecasting on the side.
By: KoritheMan, 7:46 AM GMT on December 24, 2012
The potential exists for a significant severe weather outbreak over the central Gulf Coast states on Christmas Day.
As an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough over the four corners region pivots eastward during the day today (Christmas Eve), it is likely to undergo significant intensification, resulting in surface cyclogenesis across the deep south. Model prognoses suggest that the trough will experience a negative tilt (northwest to southeast orientation), which is a situation that is usually helpful for severe weather. In addition, model soundings show some rather sizable hodographs evolving throughout the day today and especially into Christmas Day, along with substantial CAPE values. Surface-based storms may evolve across portions of central and eastern Texas this evening as the aforementioned trough begins to deepen. As the day progresses, this threat is expected to be maximized by a strong low-level jet which is expected to promote a threat for damaging winds within stronger convective downdrafts, which is supported by 0z soundings across Texas and Louisiana. In addition, very large hail appears to be possible with any elevated thunderstorms that develop within this region (central to east Texas, extending to perhaps far western Louisiana). There is obviously some tornado potential in these areas, but the overall threat appears to be somewhat conditional, namely in regards to the mode of storm development (surface based vs elevated). Directional and speed shear should be more than adequate in this region to promote a marginal tornado risk.
On Tuesday/Christmas Day, the real fun is anticipated to begin as the low-level jet reaches its maximum potential. Indeed, there appears to be enough speed shear within the lower troposphere to promote the potential for hurricane force wind gusts -- perhaps up to 70 kt in some of the most favorable areas. This would occur if the primary convective mode is a squall line or Mescoscale Convective Complex (MCS). Assuming we establish more discrete storms, these are the ones that will pose the risk for tornadoes, possibly strong and long-lived. The greatest threat for tornadoes will probably occur from west-central Louisiana to southwestern Alabama during the afternoon/evening hours of Christmas Day. Areas south of these areas appear to be more at risk for damaging winds, and there exists the potential for this event to be widespread, resulting in downed trees and power lines.
In addition, with very high precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2.0 inches, torrential rainfall and associated flash flooding will pose a considerable risk even if the other threats are somehow mitigated. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma has placed areas from central Louisiana to west-central Alabama under a Moderate Risk for severe weather, which is their second highest alert.
Figure 1. Latest 2-day Convective Outlook by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma. Note the Moderate Risk area highlighted from central Louisiana to west-central Alabama.
This has the potential to be a substantial severe weather episode. Please monitor the weather, and if a warning -- particularly a tornado warning -- is issued -- take cover immediately. Heed the warnings and do not venture outside if possible.
By: KoritheMan, 6:41 AM GMT on December 20, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Report
Tropical Storm Helene
9-18 August 2012
Helene experienced two brief periods of existence as a tropical cyclone, one east of the Leeward Islands, and another in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It made landfall as a tropical depression near Tampico, Mexico, bringing locally heavy rains.
a. Synoptic History
Helene originated from a vigorous tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on 5 August. The wave produced a sharp cyclonic wind shift in the lower troposphere as it moved rapidly westward south of a well-established and unseasonably strong mid-level ridge. The wave showed signs of organization over the next few days but overall development was slow, probably because of the strong trade winds that were being imparted to the system by the aforementioned high pressure area. The surface circulation became a little better defined around midday on 7 August. It is estimated that the wave became a tropical depression around 1800 UTC 9 August while it was centered about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The “best track” chart of the tropical cyclone’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively (to be added in the final rendition). The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1 (to be added in the final rendition). The depression failed to strengthen, likely as a direct result of the continued fast forward motion brought on by the Atlantic subtropical high, which actually became faster subsequent to genesis. Additionally, the southern portion of the tropical wave that spawned Helene appeared to be more convectively active than the northern half where the cyclone circulation was located, which could have inhibited the low-level inflow into the depression. Indeed, the circulation soon dissipated, and the depression degenerated into a sharp surface trough embedded in a larger cyclonic circulation associated with the parent tropical wave around 1200 UTC 10 August.
The remnants entered the eastern Caribbean Sea late on 11 August, producing locally heavy rains and gusty winds across portions of the southern Windward Islands as denoted by surface observations. The trough continued westward across the Caribbean Sea into Central America, entering the Bay of Campeche on 16 August. Once there, the system began to reorganize in an environment of light vertical shear. Convection erupted rather quickly, and it is assumed that the system once again became a tropical depression around 1200 UTC 17 August, centered approximately 180 miles southeast of Tampico, Mexico. Based on reconnaissance aircraft surveillance, the depression is estimated to have strengthened into a tropical storm roughly six hours later; Helene also attained its peak intensity of 40 kt around this time. Helene weakened almost immediately thereafter, becoming a tropical depression around 0000 UTC 18 August. The exact cause of the weakening is unclear, but water vapor imagery showed some dry air in the near-storm environment which could have gotten entrained into the well-defined circulation of Helene. Additionally, satellite images showed that the actual center associated with the tropical cyclone was located well to the north of a persistent ball of convection, which in itself can probably be attributed to a mid-level circulation. It appears Helene never fully lost the competing structure within the broad cyclonic gyre attendant to the tropical wave which spawned it, and the southern portion always appeared to be more convectively active than the northern portion.
Helene made landfall near Tampico at approximately 0545 UTC 18 August as a rapidly weakening tropical depression with 25-kt winds. These winds were confined to showers in the coastal waters. Helene lost its identity as a tropical cyclone around 1800 UTC 18 August while moving across the mountains of northeastern Mexico.
b. Meteorological Statistics
Observations in Tropical Storm Helene (Figs 2 and 3, to be added in the final rendition) include the Dvorak intensity technique from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), and the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT). Coastal radars from Alvarado and Altamira, Mexico, along with scatterometer and various microwave data, were also useful in tracking Helene. It is worth noting that because Helene's center was so diffuse, the timing of landfall was based primarily on extrapolation as well as a timely OSCAT pass taken at 0553 UTC 18 August which showed that the center had just moved ashore. Surface observations from Tampico were quite inconclusive, which probably attests to the broad nature of Helene's circulation.
Helene's peak intensity of 40 kt is based primarily on an SFMR wind observation of 37 kt around 2100 UTC 17 August. While this observation was received at 2100 UTC, this report documents Helene as having reached its peak near 1800 UTC, approximately three hours earlier, as scatterometer and satellite data suggests that these winds were probably occurring in squalls a few hours prior to the time of this observation, since convection was already decreasing during the time of the 37 kt wind report from the aircraft. It should be noted that scatterometer data throughout the day on 17 August indicated that virtually all of the tropical storm force winds in association with Helene were occurring in the vigorous convection which appeared to be orbiting to the south of the low-level center. Analysis of satellite imagery suggests that this convection was probably associated with a mid-level circulation, which actually moved inland several hours in advance of the low-level center. Helene had a rather atypical satellite presentation for a 40-kt tropical storm, with the low-level center in the loosely-defined band well north of the primary convective mass. It is unknown why so many storms in within this region fail to remain impressive; Hurricane Nate (2011) experienced a similar situation in this region wherein the satellite signature was significantly less than the observations measured by a reconnaissance aircraft.
Helene produced a 24-hour rainfall total of 5.7 inches in Paso del Toro in the state of Veracruz and 4.0 inches in San Pedro, Tabasco on 17 August. Perhaps not coincidentally, these areas were well within the band of heavy showers accompanying Helene's mid-level circulation. Areas outside the mid-level circulation appeared to receive very little precipitation or wind.
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
As a tropical cyclone, Helene caused no fatalities. However, when the remnants of Tropical Depression Seven were moving through the southeastern Caribbean Sea, two people died in Trinidad as a result of flooding. Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar declared Diego Martin on Trinidad (where the deaths occurred) as a disaster area, noting that two emergency shelters were opened.
Some street flooding was reported within two communities in the Mexican state of Veracruz.
Total damage from Helene is estimated to be roughly $17 million (2012 USD) dollars, all of it from the flooding that resulted in Trinidad.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
The formation of Helene was well anticipated, at least initially. The precursor tropical wave was given mention beginning at 0600 UTC 8 August, at which time the system was assigned a medium (30%) chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 h. Probabilities were increased to the high category (70%) about 24 h later. After the cyclone dissipated, subsequent forecasts continued to call for the potential for eventual redevelopment, although they remained in the low (less than 30%) category. As it turned out, Helene was dropped from all Tropical Weather Outlooks beginning (TWOs) at 0600 UTC 15 August since it had moved inland over Central America, and redevelopment was no longer anticipated due to the expectation that the system would remain overland. Helene's subsequent redevelopment over the Bay of Campeche was not forecast.
Helene was too short-lived to gain any meaningful insight as to how well the track and intensity forecasts did.
Watches and warnings associated with Helene are given in Table 6 (to be added in the final rendition). A tropical storm watch issued for the Windward Islands at 2100 UTC 10 August, while a tropical storm warning was issued for a portion of the northeastern Mexico coast at 2130 UTC 17 August.
Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Helene at peak intensity at 1800 UTC 17 August. Helene had maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 40 kt at this time, as measured by a reconnaissance aircraft.
Updated: 9:09 AM GMT on December 22, 2012
By: KoritheMan, 9:55 AM GMT on December 18, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Report
15-20 August 2012
Gordon impacted the Azores as a rapidly-accelerating tropical storm. It attained category 2 status prior to that point. Gordon was the first tropical cyclone to directly impact the Azores since the 2006 incarnation of the same storm.
a. Synoptic History
A tropical wave and attendant surface low that moved off the coast of Africa early on 10 August appears to be the catalyst responsible for spawning Gordon. While the wave soon lost most of the associated shower activity due to relatively cool sea surface temperatures, satellite pictures suggested a well-marked cyclonic circulation accompanied the tropical wave at the mid-levels as the wave moved west-northwestward. The wave became quite disorganized over the next day or two, with the circulation and associated low-level wind field becoming more asymmetric; this could have been due to dry air entrainment, as the wave was embedded in a highly subsident airmass at that time. Convection began to reignite along and to the west of the wave axis near 0600 UTC 14 August when the system was centered about 1000 miles southwest of the Azores. Convection continued to increase and slowly organize into bands, while scatterometer and microwave data (not shown) suggested that the surface circulation was becoming better defined; during this time, the system began a turn to the northwest and then north as the subtropical ridge to the north weakened with the approach of an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic.
Based on the continued organization of the cloud pattern, the system is estimated to have transformed into a tropical depression around 1800 UTC 15 August while located around 600 miles east of Bermuda. The “best track”chart of the tropical cyclone’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively (to be provided in the final rendition). The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1 (to be provided in the final rendition). The cyclone became a tropical storm near 1200 UTC 16 August as deep convection increased around the center in cyclonic bands. Gordon turned to the northeast after becoming a tropical storm as it became enraptured in deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with the aforementioned trough, which had effectively moved into the central Atlantic by that time. Gordon was slow to intensify, with the cloud pattern becoming unimpressive at times. Nonetheless, a large and ragged eye began to become evident in satellite pictures beginning around 0600 UTC 18 August as Gordon was accelerating eastward in mid-latitude westerly flow on the north side of the Atlantic subtropical high, and it is during this time that the storm is believed to have reached hurricane status. At that time, Gordon was located approximately 450 miles southwest of Flores in the northwestern Azores.
The hurricane continued to strengthen, attaining category 2 strength just six hours later while continuing to move at a quick pace. Based on satellite pictures, Gordon is estimated to have reached its peak strength of 95 kt near 1900 UTC 18 August while centered about 300 miles southwest of Flores. Gordon turned to the east-northeast and gradually weakened due to increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters. Gordon made landfall at approximately 0600 UTC 20 August on Santa Maria Island in the southeastern Azores as a 60-kt tropical storm. The tropical cyclone consisted of an asymmetric cloud pattern at landfall, with virtually all of the associated convection in a band about 75 miles north of the center. The satellite appearance of Gordon continued to degrade, and AMSU microwave data (shown below in Fig 5) indicated that the horizontal temperature gradient between Gordon and the surrounding environment was becoming less contrasting, suggesting that Gordon lost tropical characteristics near 1800 UTC 20 August while accelerating rapidly northeastward away from the Azores.
b. Meteorological Statistics
Observations in Gordon (Figs 2 and 3, to be provided in the final rendition)) include the Dvorak satellite intensity technique, which was used throughout the entirety of the cyclone's life cycle since areal reconnaissance coverage was unavailable. Various microwave data were also used, most prominently the SSMI/S and AMSUB units. The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) was particularly useful in determining when Gordon had lost its warm core and become a non-tropical system over the north Atlantic. Scatterometer data was also useful in determining the strength and position of Gordon, and for determining the existence of hurricane-force winds within the cyclone circulation as it approached the Azores.
Gordon's estimated peak intensity of 95 kt near 1900 UTC 18 August was based on a blend of Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB. While no microwave data could be obtained from when Gordon assumed peak intensity, microwave images before and after the tabulated peak intensity suggest that Gordon was a well-organized hurricane, with a 25-mile wide eye surrounded by deep convection, particularly for a high latitude system. It is interesting to note that Gordon's intensity was harder to estimate than usual, especially early in the cyclone's life before a well-defined eye had developed; this was because there was a rather strong dichotomy between geostationary satellite images and available microwave data.
The highest 1-minute sustained wind speed associated with Gordon was 42 kt with a gust to 45 kt on Santa Maria Island. However, data within this island, and the archipelago as a whole, is scarce and relatively spatial, suggesting that higher winds likely occurred between observational time periods, especially in areas of higher elevation.
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
No fatalities were reported with Gordon, and no significant damage occurred. Some minor flooding and power outages were reported on Sao Miguel Island, while strong winds blew down doors and windows. Overall damages were minimal, and were confined to the far eastern portion of the island chain.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
The genesis of Gordon was perhaps over-anticipated. As the initial tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa early on 10 August, the system was immediately assigned a medium (30 to 50%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. The wave lost organization later that day, at which time development probabilities were downgraded to a low (under 30%) chance. Around 0200 UTC 15 August, forecasts reached the "high" (greater than 50%) category with explicit mention of a tropical depression. This was about 16 hours before the time of genesis as denoted in post-storm analysis.
Watches and warnings associated with Gordon are given in Table 6 (to be added in the final rendition). A tropical storm watch was issued for the central and eastern Azores at 2100 UTC 17 August, roughly two days before landfall. The watch was replaced with a warning at 0900 UTC 18 August, shortly after Gordon became a hurricane. A hurricane warning was issued for the same area at 1500 UTC that day.
Figure 4. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Gordon at peak intensity on 1900 UTC 18 August. At this time, Gordon was a category 2 hurricane with 95-kt winds.
Figure 5. Homogeneous comparison of two separate AMSU microwave images of Gordon at 1413Z and 1737Z 20 August, respectively. Notice that the former still denotes a (weakening) warm core, with a temperature difference of 3.5 to 4.0C relative to the surrounding environment. In the latter, the horizontal temperature gradient is somewhat less, which when used with satellite imagery, suggests that Gordon lost tropical characteristics around that time.
Updated: 4:08 AM GMT on December 19, 2012
By: KoritheMan, 12:35 AM GMT on December 13, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Report
Tropical Storm Florence
3-6 August 2012
Florence was a tropical storm over the eastern Atlantic that did not affect land.
a. Synoptic History
Florence appears to have originated from a convectively tropical wave that crossed the west coast of Africa early on 2 August. The wave almost immediately showed signs of organization as it began to move westward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic, with the first Dvorak classifications implemented at 1200 UTC 3 August. A tropical depression is estimated to have formed in association with the wave near 1800 UTC that day while the system was centered about 250 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The “best track”chart of the tropical cyclone’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1 (will be added during the final rendition). The cyclone reached tropical storm strength near 0600 UTC 4 August based on satellite and microwave interpretation. Florence moved west-northwestward subsequent to becoming a tropical storm as it was steered primarily by the mid-tropospheric ridge to the north. The convective pattern of Florence soon became disorganized, with the low-level center straddling along the north edge of the convective cloud shield, possibly due to some moderate northerly shear, but, more likely, dry air entrainment caused by a stable stratocumulus cloud deck over the eastern Atlantic, which was depicted well on satellite imagery. Based on satellite estimates, Florence is estimated to have reached its peak intensity of 50 kt around 0000 UTC 5 August, at which time the tropical storm was centered approximately 700 miles west-northwest of the southwesternmost Cape Verde Islands. At that time, the cloud pattern consisted of a low-level center that was close to a circular mass of deep convection.
Soon thereafter, Florence began to weaken, with the center becoming exposed along the northeast edge of the convection, likely due to the very dry airmass which prevailed over the eastern tropical Atlantic at that time (Fig 4 -- will be added during the final rendition); increasing southeasterly shear could have also played a role. Florence turned to the west around midday on 5 August as the associated shower activity continued to diminish. The cyclone continued to weaken, falling below tropical storm strength by 0000 UTC 6 August. A mere six hours later, there was little convection near the center, and the circulation was becoming diffuse. Thus, Florence is presumed to have degenerated into an elongated trough of low pressure around 0600 UTC 6 August while located midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. The still well-defined vortex persisted for several days and generated sporadic bursts of convection before losing its identity over the western Atlantic around midday on 10 August.
b. Meteorological Statistics
Observations in Tropical Storm Florence include the satellite-based Dvorak technique, which is used to estimate the intensity of tropical cyclones outside of the jurisdiction of reconnaissance aircraft. Microwave data, particularly the SSMI/S unit, was also used to asssess the position and intensity of the tropical cyclone. There were no reconnaissance fixes throughout Florence's short life, since the cyclone remained east of 50W.
Florence's peak intensity of 50 kt at 0000 UTC 5 August is based on Dvorak estimates, which were generally around the 3.0 to 3.5 range during that period. While no microwave data could be obtained at the time of estimated peak intensity, the center appeared to be embedded under a small but healthy central dense overcast, which is consistent with the aforementioned Dvorak estimates.
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
Florence caused no known damage or deaths since it was entirely a marine interest.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
The genesis of Florence was essentially not forecast, probably due to the rapidity of the transition to a tropical cyclone, which was neither well anticipated by forecasters or the global models. The incipient tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on 2 August, and was never given mention, once again because rapid organization was not expected to occur. In retrospect, an alert to the existence of the system could have been amassed.
Because Florence remained well out at sea, no watches or warnings were necessary.
Infrared satellite image of Florence at peak intensity at 0000 UTC 5 August.
Updated: 12:43 AM GMT on December 13, 2012
By: KoritheMan, 8:55 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
A non-tropical area of low pressure in the central Atlantic located about 1000 miles southwest of the Azores ("91L") continues to produce widespread shower activity, mainly to the north of the center in a large band.
Figure 1. Latest infrared satellite image of Invest 91L. Image credit: NOAA
Evening scatterometer data suggests that the low possesses a well-defined circulation at the surface, and is generating winds to near tropical storm force in the primary convection to the north. While upper-level winds are currently light as the system sits beneath the axis of a large cyclonic circulation, the fast forward motion to the north suggests that the storm will move closer to the high-level westerlies in about 24-36 hours. The GFS continues to show only a narrow area of light shear over the system, small and fragile enough that any sudden increase in the shear will likely decapitate our little invest. For now, however, environmental conditions are not unfavorable, and some development of this low is still possible over the next day or so before the low begins to interact and eventually merge with a developing extratropical cyclone to the west. Given the cold waters, any development will be subtropical. I should note that, given the well-defined nature of the low-level center, it would probably only take a modest increase in organization to result in the formation of a subtropical storm.
This low is expected to continue moving northward over the next 24 hours, followed by a turn to the north-northeast with acceleration.
Probability of development in 48 hours: 50%
Dangerous Super Typhoon Bopha is headed toward the central Philippines, and poses a very dangerous threat to that nation. As of the latest JTWC advisory, the following information was posted on the storm:
Wind: 155 mph, with higher gusts
Location: 6.3N 136.0E
Movement: W at 18 mph
Category: 4 (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)
Bopha carries with it an unusual legacy: initial formation was all the way down at 4N. This is remarkably close to the equator, and storms generally have a lot of difficulty generating adequate spin so far south. For comparison, the lowest formation of an Atlantic tropical cyclone was Hurricane Isidore of 1990's 7.2N. Bearing that in mind, this is fairly impressive. However, Tropical Storm Vamei became a tropical storm at only 1.5N in December of 2001, so Bopha does have some competition.
Satellite estimates still support a 150 mph super typhoon, and the system does not appear to be weakening at this time. In fact, temperatures within the eye have warmed again, while the central dense overcast has expanded and once again become more symmetrical.
Figure 2. Latest infrared satellite image of Super Typhoon Bopha. Image credit: NOAA
With little increase in shear anticipated over the system, there is little reason, barring inner core dynamics (i.e., eyewall replacement cycles) to assume the system will weaken, and Bopha is expected to be of considerable strength, probably 130 to 140 mph, when it makes landfall in the central portion of the Philippines. Unlike when storms approach the United States coast in the Atlantic, there is much less influence from mid-latitude weather in the western Pacific, which makes intensity forecasts a little easier. In short, Bopha probably isn't going to just abruptly fall apart as it approaches land like so many Atlantic storms do. First and foremost though, we need to be concerned about the island of Palau, which lies directly in the path of the system. Earlier satellite pictures showed a turn to the south of the forecast track, and indeed the 0900Z forecast package just released from the JTWC shows that the cyclone has lost about a degree of latitude since the 0300Z advisory. This will probably place Palau closer to the more dangerous quadrants of the storm. Once the system emerges into the South China Sea in about 72 hours, some reintensification is possible, but it will depend on how disrupted the inner core structure is from passage over the Philippines.
The forecast track is quite straightforward. Water vapor imagery indicates an enormous zonal flow anchored to the north of the typhoon. This is generally indicative of strong ridging aloft. UW-CIMSS steering data suggests that this ridge is abnormally strong, probably comparable to the one that steered Andrew into south Florida twenty years ago. With this and tightly clustered model guidance, there is little reason to deviate from the expected west-northwest course of the system, although it will be interesting to see how much longer the system continues moving west. Since it is entirely possible that the magnitude and scope of the ridge could be underestimated in the global model forecast fields, I would not be surprised to see some additional southward adjustments to the forecast track, especially in the short-term.
Subsequent to emerging into the South China Sea, models suggest a slowing of the forward speed and a gradual turn to the north as a longwave trough develops between China and Japan. The GFS actually shows the storm looping back around and striking only a little to the north of the area of expected landfall.
Unfortunately, due to having lost the map I drew forecasts for Jelawat with, I'll have to delay doing a forecast track graph with Bopha this morning. I will try to scour it from the confines of the Internet in my next forecast.
People in the path of this storm should be taking it very seriously. It is exceptionally powerful.
5-day intensity forecast
INITIAL 12/02 0900Z 135 KT 155 MPH
12 hour 12/02 1800Z 135 KT 155 MPH
24 hour 12/03 0600Z 130 KT 150 MPH
36 hour 12/03 1800Z 125 KT 145 MPH...APPROACHING THE PHILIPPINES
48 hour 12/04 0600Z 105 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
72 hour 12/05 0600Z 75 KT 85 MPH...EMERGING INTO SOUTH CHINA SEA
96 hour 12/06 0600Z 75 KT 85 MPH
120 hour 12/07 0600Z 80 KT 90 MPH