So Long, La Niña; Arctic Temperatures Soar 63°F in 24 Hours

By: Jeff Masters , 5:15 PM GMT on February 09, 2017

In its latest monthly advisory, issued Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) sounded the death knell for the 2016-17 La Niña. SSTs in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region (in the equatorial Pacific) warmed to 0.3°C below average during early February; SSTs of 0.5°C or more below average in this region are required to be classified as weak La Niña conditions. As further evidence of the demise of La Niña, subsurface cold waters across the equatorial Pacific have completely vanished, and much warmer-than-average waters built off the coast of Peru in late January and early February, bringing unusual El Niño-like flooding rains to that nation. The 2016 - 2017 La Niña event was one of the weakest and shorted-lived La Niñas on record, lasting just six months and peaking with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño3.4 region of 0.8° below average. According to CPC, only one other La Niña since 1950 has been this short and weak: the 1967 - 1968 event, which lasted five months, and also peaked at SSTs of 0.8°C below average in the Niño 3.4 region.


Figure 1. Average sea surface temperatures during January 2017, shown as departure from the long-term (1981-2010) average. Weak La Niña conditions were present in the Niño 3.4 region, but the waters were growing unusually warm along the coast of Peru in the Niño 1+2 region. Climate.gov figure from CPC data.

The forecast: Neutral this summer, then El Niño this fall?
In a Thursday ENSO Blog entry, NOAA/CPC’s Emily Becker reviews the El Niño forecast for the rest of 2017. Most computer models agree that neutral conditions will continue into the summer, and forecasters estimate an approximately 60% chance of neutral conditions lasting through the spring. After that, it gets complicated. We have a very difficult time predicting the future beyond the March–May period: the so-called spring predictability barrier. “In fact, a forecast made in June for the sea surface temperature in December (six months away) can be more successful than a forecast made in February for May (three months away)!” Becker relates. Some of the computer models are calling for a return of El Niño conditions by the second half of 2017. CPC’s current consensus forecast for the September—November 2017 period estimates a 12% chance of La Niña conditions, 40% chance of neutral conditions, and a 48% chance of El Niño. The latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology models are more aggressive about El Niño, showing development by this spring. If El Niño materializes in 2017, it would give us an unusual three-year series of El Niño/La Niña/El Niño: something that has only happened once since 1950—in 1963/1964/1965.


Figure 2. Weather data from Kap Morris Jesup, Greenland—the northernmost land weather observing station in the world—shows the remarkable surge of warm air that invaded the Arctic this week. The temperature trace (red line in top graph) soared 63°F (34.8°C) in 24 hours, from -29°F at 15 UTC February 7 to 33°F at 15 UTC February 8. The temperature peaked at 35°F (1.5°C) at 21 UTC February 8.

Summer in February in the Arctic: temperatures surge 63°F in 24 hours in Northern Greenland
The temperature at the northernmost land station in the world, Kap Morris Jesup, located on the northern coast of Greenland at 83.65°N latitude, soared to a remarkable 35°F (1.5°C) on Wednesday—beating the previous day’s high of -22°F by a shocking 57°, and marking a temperature more typical of June at this frigid location. The mercury skyrocketed an astonishing 63°F (34.8°C) in just 24 hours, from -29°F at 15 UTC February 7 to 33°F at 15 UTC February 8. As summarized by Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang on February 6, the incredible warmth in the Arctic is due to a massive hurricane-force North Atlantic storm that bottomed out on Monday with a central pressure of 932 mb—a common reading in Category 4 hurricanes, and one of lowest pressures ever measured in a storm in this region. (He noted that the strongest North Atlantic winter storms on record—in December 1986 and January 1993—had pressures of 900 and 916 millibars, respectively.) The warm air flowing into the Arctic this week was reinforced by a second massive extratropical storm that pounded Iceland on Wednesday, which brought sustained winds of 61 mph, gusting to 91 mph, to the Reykjavik Airport. Warm air near the freezing point—about 50 to 60°F above average in temperature—likely came close to the North Pole on Thursday morning, according to the latest temperature anomaly maps from the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer website. A drifting buoy located near the Pole, at about 87°N latitude, recorded temperatures above freezing once in November 2016 and once in December 2016, and hit 32°F on Friday. The warm air in the Arctic this week continues a trend of record to near-record heat seen in the Arctic throughout the winter of 2016 - 2017. The warm air has helped bring about the lowest arctic sea ice extent ever recorded during January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. in a February 20 interview in the Washington Post, atmospheric physics expert Kent Moore of the University of Toronto noted that these types of anomalous warming events have been recorded since the 1950s, but only occurred once or twice a decade. Record arctic sea ice loss in recent years is allowing these events to occur more frequently. Moore said: “As that sea ice moves northward, there’s a huge reservoir of heat over the north Atlantic. As we lose the sea ice, it allows essentially this reservoir of warmth to move closer to the pole.”

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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248. baraktorvan
12:29 AM GMT on February 13, 2017
Guess this should tell us to stop referring to hurricanes in the limited way we do. They should apply to ANY storm that has hurricane like conditions. While I do not approve of weather.com's way of naming storms, believing that should be a NHC and NOAA decision, those same organizations should evolve and start referring to any extratopical storm that meets hurricane standards on winds, pressure, moisture, rotation, and moisture (snow, rain, etc).

If we did that, then perhaps when extratopical storms make a beeline for us in the Pacific Northwest (which happens more than you might realize) we would pay as much attention as Southerners/East Coasters do to hurricanes.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
246.
0
+
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
243. Patrap
5:27 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
If you see FEMA anywhere, send them to Louisiana.

Thanks.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
242. thomasnylen
5:19 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Was this a Piteraq (katabatic wind) at Kap Morris Jessup? Winds gusts were up to 66 kmh from the south. Common for temperatures to increase over 30C during foehn or katabatic (depending on who is interpreting the phenomenon) wind events in the McMurdo Dry Valleys in Antarctica during the winter.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
241. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:04 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
240. aquak9
4:49 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Chimps with nukes?

I don't think it's the chimps we hafta worry about.

I think it's that orange-haired orangutan we need to keep an eye on.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
239. ndscott50
4:47 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Crazy wind storm north of Denver. Near me, Vance Brand Airport had winds west at 44 gusting to 74. Saw an old barn that blew over up the road. A tree is down across the road from me and my 4 burner grill blew over (the burner cracked so I think its dead). A few trucks blew over on I-25 and I just saw that Denver International issued a ground stop due to high winds. There are also two grass fires west of Longmont with 125 home evacuated.

The crazy thing is that while there is a high wind warning in the foothills there is no high wind warning at my location. I have seen many high wind events in my area, with warnings issued, and this is worse than most. Don’t normally complain about NWS, they generally do a great job, but how have they not issued a high wind warning?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
238. GavinBD
4:47 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 216. 62901IL:

At this point, I feel like we're never gonna get to Drogan.

Remember, I only name Winter Storms that prompt a Winter Weather Advisory, Winter Storm Watch, Winter Storm Warning, Freezing Rain Advisory or Ice Storm Warning for the NWS Paducah CWA.

But hey, on the Bright Side of the Dark Side, at least the Northeast got a Blizzard.

Have you abandoned us, Snow God? What did we do to deserve a lack of snow and ice?


We've been doing the patented New Englander Snow Dance for the last 2 years up here, it had to pay off at some point!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
237. Gearsts
4:43 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
236. weathermanwannabe
4:41 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
We might try explaining the current issue in a more simple form that a 2-year old could understand; "Honey, in about 50 years, Santa Claus is going to be wearing shorts with his boots"...............................
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
235. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:37 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
I kinda like let it show what it really is
we know the difference
we know what has happen is different
we know what's yet to happen will be different
but I kinda like leaving them
so they look as foolish
as they are
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
234. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:33 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 231. daddyjames:



I though such behavior was a violation of the rules for the road?
only if its a spam like approach small one time referrals are fine but no spammy whammy repeat stuff
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
233. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:32 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 221. Applonia39:

I would like to tell you of my latest book and documentary.
%u2018The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science%u2019.
My latest documentary and video of my presentation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPzpPXuASY8
My website is
Thank you.
Tim
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPzpPXuASY8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sO08Hhjes_0
www.drtimball.com



Dr. Tim Ball? The same Dr. Tim Ball that had a 4 hour psuedo-science show on "Coast to Coast AM Radio" a few years ago? No phone calls by listeners were allowed so that you could cast your psuedo-science garbage onto the show's listeners without being challenged on the garbage that you spewed out of your mouth. Perhaps you might remember me. Shortly after the show I emailed you and called you a COWARD for not taking any phone calls during that broadcast. I also called you out as being a COWARD in the comments section of one of your OP-ED pieces a few months back. You never replied to my email to you and you never came back to address my calling you a COWARD in the comments section. Should you have such a belief that your psuedo-science nonsense is correct then quit being a COWARD and allow others to address you and for you to respond.

Should I draw a ban for this comment, then so be it. It is worth it to call this scumbag out onto the carpet for his cowardly ways and for his psuedo-science OP-ED pieces of trash.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
232. 62901IL
4:12 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Car-los.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
231. daddyjames
4:11 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 221. Applonia39:



I though such behavior was a violation of the rules for the road?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
230. weathermanwannabe
4:02 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Until they fix the "1969" join date downstream in time, we cannot determine if someone just joined the Blog recently just to post as a troll; until, then this one is for Aplonia:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/ 22/extraordinarily-hot-arctic-temperatures-alarm-s cientists

The Arctic is experiencing extraordinarily hot sea surface and air temperatures, which are stopping ice forming and could lead to record lows of sea ice at the north pole next year, according to scientists.

Danish and US researchers monitoring satellites and Arctic weather stations are surprised and alarmed by air temperatures peaking at what they say is an unheard-of 20C higher than normal for the time of year. In addition, sea temperatures averaging nearly 4C higher than usual in October and November.

It's been about 20C warmer than normal over most of the Arctic Ocean, along with cold anomalies of about the same magnitude over north-central Asia. This is unprecedented for November, said research professor Jennifer Francis of Rutgers university.

Temperatures have been only a few degrees above freezing when -25C should be expected, according to Francis. These temperatures are literally off the charts for where they should be at this time of year. It is pretty shocking. The Arctic has been breaking records all year. It is exciting but also scary, she said.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
229. barbamz
3:59 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
To add something to the good weekend mood ;-)

Coastal Cities Could Flood Three Times a Week by 2045
Climate Central, Published: February 9th, 2017
The lawns of homes purchased this year in vast swaths of coastal America could regularly be underwater before the mortgage has even been paid off, with new research showing high tide flooding could become nearly incessant in places within 30 years.
Such floods could occur several times a week on average by 2045 along the mid-Atlantic coastline, where seas have been rising faster than nearly anywhere else, and where lands are sagging under the weight of geological changes. ...


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
228. Misanthroptimist
3:56 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 222. cRRKampen:


Large poleward expansion of desert regime.
Hyperfloods and hyperdroughts in higher latitudes.
General collapse of agriculture with global repercussions fast.
Think about how you would survive in an Aleppo world, because that is the future - not counting with the chimps with nukes, yet (they will bring paradise even sooner than anything else).

Meteorologically it is all already fascinating and utterly unseen. The way what was known as the Icelandic Low now makes Svalbard the new Iceland (and the North Sea the new Azores). The stuck patterns, but also the Atlantic waves that, for the first time ever, travel to Greenland as incipients, develop across the very length of the Inlandsis to emerge as full Atlantic storms at the North Pole taking Siberia as their warm sector... Ugh! But fascinating. I did away with my archival knowledge of northern hemisphere synoptics. It has as much value as knowing how the Neanderthals arranged rocks for burials and stuff like that. Interesting, but history forever.

Speaking of Svalbard, here's what it looked like there yesterday:



For those who need background on Svalbard: " Svalbard is the northernmost settlement in the world with a permanent civilian population." Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
227. weathermanwannabe
3:53 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Because of the way that North America is flanked by the North Pacific and North Atlantic, which causes some of the natural jet stream dips (going south on the Pacific side and going north on the Atlantic side), the US is in a "unique" position to feel the effects of global warming/arctic warming. I used to mention for the past several years that my personal poster-child for warming/glacial melt was the North Atlantic "cold pool" off of Greenland to the North of the Gulf Stream.  However, looking at the weather patterns across the US this particular Winter, Conus itself might become my new poster child.



 
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
226. Neapolitan
3:48 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 221. Applonia39:

I would like to tell you of my latest book and documentary.
%u2018The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science%u2019.
My latest documentary and video of my presentation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPzpPXuASY8
My website is
Thank you.
Tim
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPzpPXuASY8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sO08Hhjes_0
www.drtimball.com

Your book and documentary are every bit as nonsensical and utterly lacking in scientific merit as they were the last time you spammed this forum with links to them. Seriously: I think you'll have better luck peddling your brand of anti-science rubbish to the ignorant, non-discerning crowds you'll find at WUWT, Climate Depot, and the like. Let me know if you need the links...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
225. Misanthroptimist
3:48 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 221. Applonia39:


Tell it to the Arctic sea ice, Timmy
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
224. cRRKampen
3:45 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 218. Misanthroptimist:


2017 is potentially the most important year in human history...so far. If we get a 2007 "Perfect Melt" year in the Arctic, the sea ice will vanish almost or perhaps completely. What happens after that probably is best described by Samuel L. Jackson in Jurassic Park.

17 is my number (as someone with nil superstitions I need to set a few random icons for orientation in this world - tongue in cheek, but a few percent seriously).
I hadn't realized there might be some more to it. You could be quite right, this a kind of decider year.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
223. Neapolitan
3:45 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 173. birdsrock2016:

So, Will South Florida see a colder winter for the 2017-2018 period? This winter was disappointing, and we had only 1 major cold blast versus 6-7 in 2013 and 2014. 2015 was also okay with 5-6 cold blasts, but this year and 2016 were just horrible for the cold weather and the warmth is prevailing this winter =(
I sure hope not. I moved here for the warmth; if I wanted lingering cold spells, I'd have stayed up north. So I think I speak for millions of winter visitors when I say thanks, but no thanks. We'd be happy if the temperature here never dipped below, say, 60.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
222. cRRKampen
3:43 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 220. Lurkindanger:



I'm curious to see what affect that will have on our climate. As the ice slowly melts distributing its billions of tonnes of weight, combine that with the billions of tonnes of particulates and carbon continually released that arguably is biased to one side of the earth (China/ India/ Russia). I wouldn't doubt this is making the earth like an out of balanced tire in its orbit changing up weather patterns that use to be more or less "stable".


Large poleward expansion of desert regime.
Hyperfloods and hyperdroughts in higher latitudes.
General collapse of agriculture with global repercussions fast.
Think about how you would survive in an Aleppo world, because that is the future - not counting with the chimps with nukes, yet (they will bring paradise even sooner than anything else).

Meteorologically it is all already fascinating and utterly unseen. The way what was known as the Icelandic Low now makes Svalbard the new Iceland (and the North Sea the new Azores). The stuck patterns, but also the Atlantic waves that, for the first time ever, travel to Greenland as incipients, develop across the very length of the Inlandsis to emerge as full Atlantic storms at the North Pole taking Siberia as their warm sector... Ugh! But fascinating. I did away with my archival knowledge of northern hemisphere synoptics. It has as much value as knowing how the Neanderthals arranged rocks for burials and stuff like that. Interesting, but history forever.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
220. Lurkindanger
3:35 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 211. cRRKampen:


Yes, the Arctic implosion is happening right now and we are going through the door to a different world.
As of this year winter refreeze of Arctic sea ice is going to be something worthwhile for betting on. This phase will take only a couple of years. I don't know about the models (I do, actually, and I dismiss them for containing too much Gauss) but I think I'll be living in a world with no Arctic sea ice at all before I'm sixty, or even 55. The latter is five years and five weeks from now.


I'm curious to see what affect that will have on our climate. As the ice slowly melts distributing its billions of tonnes of weight, combine that with the billions of tonnes of particulates and carbon continually released that arguably is biased to one side of the earth (China/ India/ Russia). I wouldn't doubt this is making the earth like an out of balanced tire in its orbit changing up weather patterns that use to be more or less "stable".
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
219. Patrap
3:30 PM GMT on February 10, 2017













A home near Chef Menteur Highway is completely destroyed. (Photo by Brett Duke, Nola.com | The Times-Picayune) (BRETT DUKE)

Tuesday's tornadoes by the numbers: Complete figures on injuries, damages

By Laura McKnight, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune
Follow on Twitter

on February 09, 2017 at 7:33 PM, updated February 09, 2017 at 7:34 PM
The Louisiana Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness released updated numbers Thursday afternoon (Feb. 9) on the damage and emergency response to tornadoes that struck southeastern Louisiana earlier this week.

Though initial reports mentioned at least seven tornadoes touching down Tuesday, the National Weather Service on Thursday amended that count to six tornadoes. Some of the tornadoes had long tracks and turned out to be the same tornado traveling through multiple parishes.

Much of the damage is centered in New Orleans East, where an EF-3 tornado touched down and then traveled for 10.1 miles. That tornado, with a path that reached a maximum of 600 yards wide, injured 33 people, including five to six seriously, and caused moderate to severe damage to more than 600 homes and at least 40 businesses, according to the weather service.

A total of six tornadoes hit Louisiana on Tuesday (Feb. 7), with tracks as long as 23.3 miles and speeds as high as 150 miles per hour

Preliminary Damage Assessment teams are on the ground surveying damaged areas, according to the Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP). The teams include staff with FEMA, GOHSEP and the Small Business Administration.

Thursday afternoon, GOHSEP said information gathered by those teams will likely be used in a request for a federal disaster declaration.


Here are figures reported by GOHSEP Thursday:

Injuries reported: 39 injuries have been reported from across the state. No fatalities have been reported as a result of the severe weather.
Injuries treated by New Orleans metro area hospitals: 28
Injuries treated by Baton Rouge area hospitals: 9
Injuries treated by North Shore hospitals: 2
Homes damaged: Nearly 800 homes were damaged in five parishes, according to early assessments.
Orleans Parish damage: 638 houses, 32 apartments, 40 businesses and one school were damaged in an EF-3 tornado that touched down in New Orleans East.

Jefferson Parish damage: intermittent large tree limb and minor roof damage was reported in Old Jefferson, but no homes were majorly impacted. The tornado that hit Jefferson was graded an EF-0, the mildest category on the enhanced Fujita scale.
Livingston Parish damage: 21 homes in the Watson area and five homes in the Killian area. The tornado that struck Watson was graded an EF-3, a severe category on the enhanced Fujita scale. The tornado that hit Killian was graded an EF-2.
St. Tammany Parish damage: Three homes. The tornado that touched down near Killian also affected St. Tammany and Tangipahoa parishes as it traveled a 23.3-mile path.

Tangipahoa Parish damage: Damages were reported, but no homes were impacted.
Ascension Parish damage: 10 homes and two businesses. The tornado that touched down in the Donaldsonville area was graded an EF-1.
St. James Parish damage: 19 homes and one business. St. James Parish was impacted by the EF-1 tornado that touched down in the Donaldsonville area.
Shelter check-in's in New Orleans East: 100 people have checked in to the shelter set up at the Joe W. Brown Recreation Center in New Orleans East.

Meals delivered in Orleans Parish: More than 3,200 meals and snacks had been served by the American Red Cross in Orleans Parish alone, as of Wednesday night. The Red Cross continued to provide hot meals Thursday, in addition to snacks and drinks, to residents and responders in New Orleans East. The meals are available at the Joe W. Brown Recreation Center shelter, as well as via Red Cross vehicles in accessible parts of the tornado-ravaged area.

Red Cross emergency-response vehicles deployed: Five. Across tornado-hit areas of southeastern Louisiana, Red Cross emergency-response vehicles are among the trucks delivering food and drinks, as well as relief items like personal care packages, cleaning supplies and tarps.
Louisiana Army National Guard on duty: 146 National Guard members are on duty in the aftermath of the tornadoes, as of Thursday morning. Guard members are operating 16 security checkpoints.

Each checkpoint has one vehicle and two personnel.
Louisiana State Police support: 10 troopers are helping New Orleans police with traffic control and overnight anti-looting patrols in New Orleans East.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
218. Misanthroptimist
3:24 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 211. cRRKampen:


Yes, the Arctic implosion is happening right now and we are going through the door to a different world.
As of this year winter refreeze of Arctic sea ice is going to be something worthwhile for betting on. This phase will take only a couple of years. I don't know about the models (I do, actually, and I dismiss them for containing too much Gauss) but I think I'll be living in a world with no Arctic sea ice at all before I'm sixty, or even 55. The latter is five years and five weeks from now.

2017 is potentially the most important year in human history...so far. If we get a 2007 "Perfect Melt" year in the Arctic, the sea ice will vanish almost or perhaps completely. What happens after that probably is best described by Samuel L. Jackson in Jurassic Park.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
217. Patrap
3:16 PM GMT on February 10, 2017








<




The Trump administration can’t entirely roll back progress on climate change — here’s why

By Jessica F. Green February 10 at 8:00 AM





Environmentalists are not happy with the Trump administration. There are rumors that Trump might withdraw from the landmark Paris climate agreement on climate change. And Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, the former CEO of ExxonMobil, is probably unlikely to champion U.S. environmental priorities in his diplomatic agenda.

Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency pick, Scott Pruitt, is not a fan of environmental regulation and is unlikely to support the Clean Power Plan, Obama’s signature climate policy.

[Trump has picked the most conservative EPA leader since 1981]

U.S. cities are leading the way on climate change policy

Here’s the good news: States, cities and many firms in the United States realize that sensible climate policy is, well, sensible. Having rational policies in place provides important health benefits, such as reducing smog, and helps authorities prepare for climate-induced changes, like floods and droughts. For firms, planning for the future is just good business.

A number of cities around the world have been at the vanguard of climate action. The C40 Cities initiative is a network of more than 80 and represents 600 million people around the globe, including 13 cities in the United States. Their governments are collaborating on climate efforts, and they have committed to mandatory measurement and reporting of emissions and other policy measures. C40’s nifty interactive dashboard provides data on participants’ emissions.

[The world is about to get tough on aviation emissions. Here’s what you need to know.]

Eight US cities also joined the ambitious Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance, where cities pledge to cut emissions by at least 80 percent by 2050.

U.S. cities are also preparing for a changed climate. In the wake of Hurricane Sandy, New York created the Office of Recovery and Resiliency and a plan to minimize impacts of similar storms. Miami just announced a $100 million plan to combat persistent flooding and sea level rise.

Cities’ vulnerability helps explain why urban residents are more likely to support policies to regulate carbon dioxide as a pollutant, and require that utilities source a set percentage of energy from renewable sources.

States are generating demand for clean energy

States also have the autonomy to take action on climate change, with or without a federal mandate. California is continuing its long-standing role as a climate leader. The state’s landmark climate legislation, AB 32, aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and then 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

AB 32 includes aggressive policies to promote renewable energy, enhance fuel efficiency and increase both the use of low-carbon fuels and the number of zero-emission vehicles. Since 2015, California has linked its cap-and-trade scheme to Quebec, creating the first international carbon market between state governments rather than federal ones.

The California legislature passed the measure, so there is no obvious federal action that could undo this market. And California and other large states may also spur broader action.

Here’s an example of the “California effect.” In the 1980s, California’s fuel-efficiency standards exceeded those set by the federal Clean Air Act. Congress eventually responded by bringing federal rules up to California standards. Because cars sold in California — a large market — had to meet more stringent standards, car manufacturers boosted the efficiency of new vehicles nationwide.

Other states, regardless of their political leanings, are also moving ahead on renewable energy. Texas and 28 others have renewable portfolio standards, which require utilities to sell a certain amount of renewable energy. Another eight have voluntary renewable energy standards.

State laws have helped drive the growth in renewables, which now account for roughly 10 percent of total U.S. energy consumption. Employment in the solar industry is also soaring — and accounted for 1 in 50 new jobs in 2016.

Firms also lead by example on environmental policy

Politicians may wonder whether climate change is happening; CEOs do not. They see climate change as bad for business; droughts, floods and extreme weather events can interrupt supply chains. And regulation can raise production costs. Many firms agree that being prepared for climatic and regulatory changes can help lessen negative impacts.


Others are voluntarily “greening” themselves and improving the bottom line as a bonus. The campaign RE100, for example, has 90 member firms, including 32 U.S. companies, who have pledged to move to 100 percent renewable energy.

In 2014, the global coalition We Mean Business launched an initiative to promote the transition to a low-carbon economy. Almost 700 companies and investors, representing $8 trillion in revenue, have committed to policies like putting a price on carbon, committing to 100 percent renewable power, removing commodity-driven deforestation from supply chains, and reporting climate change information as a fiduciary duty.

[Wondering what’s different about the Paris climate change negotiations?]

In an increasingly global economy, moreover, companies need to adapt to climate regulations and plan for carbon restrictions coming into place in other countries. Just like car manufacturers adjusted to accommodate California’s strict standards, U.S. and other multinational firms are greening their practices to meet environmental laws in other nations.

The fate of the Clean Power Plan

Although pro-climate policies are likely to continue thanks to efforts at the state, national and corporate levels, the fate of Obama’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) is unclear. The CPP is the centerpiece of the U.S. pledge to the Paris agreement, and it aims to reduce emissions from power plants 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.

Trump seems keen to repeal the CPP, but regulations are not easily undone. The Supreme Court issued a stay of the CPP in 2015, but if it is upheld, then a rollback will take longer.

The Trump administration could then go back to court to allow EPA to revisit the rule, or it could rescind the rule. As Jody Freeman of Harvard Law School spells out, rescinding the rule would require both a notice and comment period and an explanation of why such a move is necessary. Further litigation would be likely, which would slow efforts to undo the CPP.

More important, many U.S. utilities are moving forward assuming CPP or other regulations will be in place —eventually. Utilities are retiring coal plants and not planning to build new ones. Indeed, the country’s seventh-largest emitter announced that it will probably close this year, because of competition from natural gas.


Coal now supplies only about one-third of the total energy used in U.S. electricity generation, down from about 50 percent in the 1990s. With the majority of U.S. coal plants built before the 1980s, more shutdowns are probable.

The federal government is necessary, but not sufficient

In short, a Trump administration can’t entirely reverse progress on climate change. It may slow things, but the CPP won’t be repealed overnight. And many of the changes underway are simply not subject to federal authority.


The rate of climate change is alarming, and we need to move as quickly as possible to de-carbonize. States and cities continue to take action on climate change. Firms are also leading the way and increasingly urging governments to follow. All of these moves suggest there’s reason to be hopeful that U.S. progress on climate change will continue.

Jessica F. Green (@greenprofgreen) is assistant professor of environmental studies at New York University. She is the author of Rethinking Private Authority, published by Princeton University Press.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
216. 62901IL
3:12 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
So...this is what the NWS Paducah Watch Warning Advisory map looks like right now.



What's missing? Winter alerts.

We've used the following names for Winter Storms

Ahriman (December 17th 2016, Winter Weather Advisory}
Badrukk (January 6th 2017, Winter Weather Advisory)
Calgar (January 13-14th, 2017, Freezing Rain Advisory)

Ahriman and Badrukk were minor. Calgar was Moderate.

Next name on the list: Drogan

At this point, I feel like we're never gonna get to Drogan.

Remember, I only name Winter Storms that prompt a Winter Weather Advisory, Winter Storm Watch, Winter Storm Warning, Freezing Rain Advisory or Ice Storm Warning for the NWS Paducah CWA.

But hey, on the Bright Side of the Dark Side, at least the Northeast got a Blizzard.

Have you abandoned us, Snow God? What did we do to deserve a lack of snow and ice?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
215. ChiThom
2:47 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 162. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

the bees are done soon pat when that occurs its finish in a short time after that


The Monarchs and the Bees are the canaries in the coal mine.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
214. daddyjames
2:46 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 209. ChiThom:

Does el nino even matter when the whole world is so warm? i.e is there any predictability associated with the past el ninos and the next one? Rainfall patterns in California? We will see soon enough.

We're driving from Illinois to Florida next week, but the typical cold weather that we'll be escaping will be in the forties and (gasp) fifties for the next ten days.

Winter is set to end with a whimper, and all those snow plow drivers around here are "losing their shirts". (No money to pay for their trucks and plows) :-(


It matters in that El Nino results in a release of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere. Predictability is another issue. They already move the baseline for comparison every five years to account for the warming of the oceans due to climate change. Maybe they'll have to make that every 3 years to appropriately account for SSTs due to climate change.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
213. cRRKampen
2:43 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 205. earthisanocean:



while we're doing scores, climate change deniers are losing still 97-3

And they won 100-0 against the liveability of this planet. Which is the only thing that counts.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
212. ChiThom
2:42 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Hmmm.... Don't modify your comment after spelling-out El Niño.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
211. cRRKampen
2:42 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 208. weathermanwannabe:

And, as we have discussed here for the past several years, while the older article below references 2010 as the hottest modern record warmth year, Arctic, and global warming, has accelerated over the past few years since with the record shattering numbers for 2014, 2015, 2016, and now going into 2017 which has concerned so many; we have entered a period of rapid deterioration in the Arctic. Here is the period around Christmas in December 2016 and notice the warm spells across the United States that we had in this same time frame:







Yes, the Arctic implosion is happening right now and we are going through the door to a different world.
As of this year winter refreeze of Arctic sea ice is going to be something worthwhile for betting on. This phase will take only a couple of years. I don't know about the models (I do, actually, and I dismiss them for containing too much Gauss) but I think I'll be living in a world with no Arctic sea ice at all before I'm sixty, or even 55. The latter is five years and five weeks from now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
210. Uragani
2:38 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
209. ChiThom
2:28 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Does el nio even matter when the whole world is so warm? i.e is there any predictability associated with the past el nios and the next one? Rainfall patterns in California? We will see soon enough.

We're driving from Illinois to Florida next week, but the typical cold weather that we'll be escaping will be in the forties and (gasp) fifties for the next ten days.

Winter is set to end with a whimper, and all those snow plow drivers around here are "losing their shirts". (No money to pay for their trucks and plows) :-(
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
208. weathermanwannabe
2:04 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
And, as we have discussed here for the past several years, while the older article below references 2010 as the hottest modern record warmth year, Arctic, and global warming, has accelerated over the past few years since with the record shattering numbers for 2014, 2015, 2016, and now going into 2017 which has concerned so many; we have entered a period of rapid deterioration in the Arctic.  Here is the period around Christmas in December 2016 and notice the warm spells across the United States that we had in this same time frame:





Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
207. Lurkindanger
1:50 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 173. birdsrock2016:

So, Will South Florida see a colder winter for the 2017-2018 period? This winter was disappointing, and we had only 1 major cold blast versus 6-7 in 2013 and 2014. 2015 was also okay with 5-6 cold blasts, but this year and 2016 were just horrible for the cold weather and the warmth is prevailing this winter =(




We might break 50 in two weeks.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
206. weathermanwannabe
1:42 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
At the end of the day, these very noticable climate shifts, and patterns of very cold shots in the Winter followed by very warm shots in the same season, are related to jet stream variations due to polar amplification/warming in the Arctic. The answer to many of these anomalous events, including extreme precipitation events, across the Northern Hemisphere lies in the Arctic. Here is an article (and excerpt) on this issue from a paper in Nature/Climate from 2013:

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n8/full /nclimate1978.html


The jet stream is driven by climate; it is created by the temperature difference between the cold Arctic region and the warmer low latitudes. When there is a large disparity, the jet stream is stronger and faster, meaning it runs straighter. However, the temperature difference has decreased in recent years because the Arctic is warming more rapidly than the rest of the planet, resulting in a weaker and slower jet stream.

The decreased jet stream speed results in large north–south meanders. It is these shifts that produce unseasonal weather patterns over Europe/the Northern Hemisphere. If the jet stream sits to the north it brings the warm weather from the lower latitudes. Conversely, if the jet stream meanders to the south it can bring unsettled weather and colder temperatures.

The WMO report notes that 2010 was not only the warmest year on record, but also the wettest globally. Floods were the most frequent extreme events during 2001–2010, and this trend appears to be continuing; so far this year we have seen significant floods in eastern Australia, central Europe, India and Canada.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
205. earthisanocean
1:28 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 201. PensacolaDoug:


HRC 0-2


while we're doing scores, climate change deniers are losing still 97-3
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
204. weathermanwannabe
1:27 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Good Morning Folks; it looks like (from the forecast below) that things are going to settle down after this weekend in terms of the cold shots in the North/NE and current precipitation event in the West. Reading between the lines, and noting the numerous references to warmer air and Gulf flow, unless we get some significant cold shots in the longer term, it is possible that Winter might be over this season for the US about one month ahead of normal schedule..When was the last time that you saw a coming "warm front" reference for the NE in early February?......This reads more like a Spring forecast for March/April.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 10 2017 - 12Z Sun Feb 12 2017

...Quieter weather returning to the West Coast and a brief cold spell for
the eastern states ...

Much colder weather has settled in across the eastern U.S. in the wake of
the departing nor'easter that resulted in over a foot of snow for parts of
New England. After a very cold start on Friday morning, temperatures are
expected to be below normal for daytime highs before a warming trend
commences in time for the weekend. Another round of snow is likely for
the Northeast U.S. Friday night in advance of the warm front, but not
nearly as heavy compared to the recent event. Showers and a few storms
will be possible from the Deep South to the Ohio Valley this weekend as
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is advected northward around the
departing surface high pressure, and ahead of a cold front. Given the
lack of sufficient wind shear or instability, no severe weather is
anticipated over the next few days.

Across the western U.S., a cold front moving across the Intermountain West
will keep valley rain and mountain snow in the forecast through Saturday
evening. Snow is expected across the higher elevations of the central and
southern Rockies going into Sunday as a new surface low gets better
organized over the Four Corners region. Drier weather will be the rule
for the West Coast beyond Friday night with high pressure building in.






Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
203. g8driver
1:22 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Mr. g8drver,

sorry your feathers are ruffled. Stick to the Pontiac creed..."talk less and only when needed"
G8GT+ 460 hp.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
202. stoormfury
1:16 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
with a possible neutral El Nino, this hurricane season could be very interesting.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
201. PensacolaDoug
12:47 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 187. Patrap:

3-0

: P

HRC 0-2
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
200. cRRKampen
12:13 PM GMT on February 10, 2017
Quoting 198. isothunder67:

Another stunning moon set this morning. It was almost as orange as an orange and it was huge!!......... I still don't have a good camera :(

We have the new kind of steppe air in the Netherlands now. Easterlies that used to be cold, dry, blue skies are now endless drab sunless days with a little frost now rising to outright mild early next week, all the time with transport from the continental east.

Small sorrow at least lifts me for a moment from the end of coral.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
199. elioe
11:57 AM GMT on February 10, 2017
Carlos has been an underachiever, when compared to early model runs.
But now models forecast "Dineo" to form in four days or so. Let's see if this system will fulfill models' intensity predictions.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
198. isothunder67
11:35 AM GMT on February 10, 2017
Another stunning moon set this morning. It was almost as orange as an orange and it was huge!!......... I still don't have a good camera :(
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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