How to Save $23 Trillion Per Year: 100% Renewable Energy for the World

By: Jeff Masters , 4:02 PM GMT on January 02, 2017

Here’s a 2017 New Year’s resolution I’d like to see the nations of the world adopt: an immediate international effort to invest in a world where 100% of our electricity will be generated by wind, water, and solar power by 2050. Such an effort is technically and economically feasible, and has been championed by Stanford professor Mark Jacobson since 2009. His latest research on the subject was laid out in a series of talks last month in San Francisco at the annual meeting of The American Geophysical Union—the world’s largest conference on climate change. During his talks, Dr. Jacobson outlined a plan to power 139 nations of the world for all purposes—including electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry, and agriculture/forestry/fishing—using a mix of approximately 37% wind, 58% solar, 4% hydropower, and 1% geothermal, wave, and tidal power. He argued that his plan would:

1) Replace 80% of business-as-usual power by 2030, and 100% by 2050
2) Reduce power consumption by 42.5% because of electricity’s better work:energy ratio, efficiency, and lack of mining needed
3) Create 24.3 million more jobs than lost
4) Eliminate 3.5 million premature air pollution deaths per year and save $23 trillion (7.6% of GDP) in air pollution health costs per year by 2050 (for comparison: the World Bank estimated in 2016 that air pollution in 2013 killed 5.5 million people, with non-health care costs of over $5 trillion)
5) Save $28.5 trillion per year in avoided climate change costs by potentially keeping global warming less than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
6) Reduce war by creating energy-independent countries
7) Decentralize energy production, thereby reducing power outages, terrorism threats to energy installations, and energy poverty


Figure 1. Dr. Mark Jacobson of Stanford addresses an audience in San Francisco at the annual meeting of The American Geophysical Union on December 17, 2016.

OK, this New Year’s resolution does not come cheap. The up-front cost of such an energy system is $124.7 trillion for converting the 139 nations of the world Dr. Jacobson studied. However, it’s critical to consider the savings, not just the costs. He estimates that by 2050, an $85 per person per year savings in electricity costs will be realized using a 100% wind, water, and solar powered world compared to the current business-as-usual system. This does not include the savings due to reduced air pollution and reduced climate change costs, which would be an additional $5,800 per person per year.


Figure 2. The total surface area (in square kilometers) of the Earth including oceans (large blue circle) and land surface area of the 139 countries studied (pink circle) are compared to the areal footprint of the renewable energy systems (beyond what was installed as of 2015) needed to provide 100% of power by 2050 in Dr. Jacobson’s road map. The plan requires approximately 653,200 square km offshore wind turbines, 1,105,000 square km of onshore wind turbines, 87,410 square km of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, and 260,500 square km of photovoltaic and concentrated solar power (CSP) systems run by utility companies. For hydropower, no new installations are proposed, so the additional footprint is zero. About 1% of the world’s land area would be needed for the power systems proposed. Image credit: Dr. Mark Jacobson, Stanford.

His road map to a 100% renewable energy future uses existing generator technologies, along with existing electrical transportation, heating/cooling, and industrial devices and appliances. Electricity storage is done using existing storage technologies—Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) with storage, pumped hydroelectric storage, and existing heat/cold storage technologies (water, ice, and rocks). No stationary storage batteries, biomass, nuclear power, carbon capture, or natural gas are required. No new dams would be needed, but existing dams would be made more efficient. Aircraft flying less than 600 km would be electric, and those flying longer distances would be powered by hydrogen fuel cells. He modeled the seasonal and daily variation in solar energy and wind power in the 139 countries, with storage, and was able to show that the power grid was stable—the load on the grid matched the electricity supply. The 2.5 million wind turbines required would cause approximately a 0.6% reduction in world’s average wind speed, which he argued should not cause major disturbances to the weather. Dr. Jacobson acknowledged that political obstacles would make his plan difficult to implement, but stressed that a solution to global warming is technically and economically feasible. A detailed discussion of his plan is here.

Happy New Year, everybody! We’ll be back Wednesday with a new post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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540. cRRKampen
5:53 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 518. snotly:

As far a fixing the world, didn't fixing the world get us here in the first place? Now you're going to tell me some other unintended consequence won't come out of solar, wind, nuclear and other renewables? Maybe nature wants us to finish ourselves off, so our replacements can fix things . Maybe that's the 'natural ' order of things . Not us coming up with endless solutions.

The caveat is re 'nature' which in this reasoning (about evolution really) ought to include humanity but seems to exclude it.
Anyway, what we are doing is no different from previous species that ran 'out of control', caused a mass extinction through sheer dominance then crashed into oblivion. The only difference is that we can be aware of the fact that we are doing it. I don't think it makes a difference for the apocalyptic process, unless we survive soon coming bottleneck with some knowledge in the remaining heads (this apocalypse is a certainty in all scenarios including miraculously rosy ones).

Given the single stat we have and abusing it, the average return time of a sentient type like us is one or a couple of billions of years. In other words, after humanity the word (logos) will be lost entirely. Most evolution takes to retardation (which is why almost everything that evolved never sustained multicellular life or died out instantly if born/hatched at all).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
539. NNYer
5:47 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 519. Patrap:

Well there's a idea?

: P


I saw a solar spill once, the light got on EVERYTHING.

Yes, and those damn windmills are causing too much wind.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
538. georgevandenberghe
5:45 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 498. ChiThom:

C-c-cold in Chicagoland this morning. After a couple weeks of 40s, suddenly it dropped to 9° overnight, and it is going to stay below 20° for the next five days, and as low as 4°. It's a bit windy, too, and the wind stings your face and exposed skin.
You know what they say in Chicago? If you don't like the weather, just wait because it will change.


I think we can also say this about our President-Elect

But back to weather, warm today in DC but cooling in afternoon and next five days look cold with actual accumulating snow possible tomorrow night. I will put covers on my home garden this evening. Still have lettuce.. another two to three weeks worth before it's all eaten, less if it freezes under the covers. It's partly a semantic argument whether the air over us on Sunday will be "arctic". It's borderline. We can get a lot worse.
Mid December airmass was arctic (cold esp at low levels) v.s. polar (deep, well mixed cold but not as cold at the surface). The most bitter arctic outbreaks here produce highs near 10 and windy lows a few degrees below zero F.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
537. nash36
5:14 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
A real mess shaping up for the SE this weekend. Snow is one thing; GFS is continuing to show ice.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
536. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:12 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
535. Gearsts
5:10 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
534. LAbonbon
5:08 PM GMT on January 04, 2017

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
533. ACSeattle
5:05 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 519. Patrap:

Well there's a idea?

: P


I saw a solar spill once, the light got on EVERYTHING.

And I bet you had to wait until sundown to clean it up!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
532. nrtiwlnvragn
5:00 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 528. VAbeachhurricanes:



Aren't those the debt and deficit ceilings? Not the forecast?


Nope that is the "budget"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
531. Xandra
4:58 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
530. mavilesilva
4:50 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
since Otto, the forecast table for Managua notes that tropical storm condictions are expected for my area
can anyone fix this bug?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
529. SouthTampa
4:33 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 517. LAbonbon:
“I would not be totally surprised if he were to give some speech announcing that [climate change] was a major crisis, announcing a new Manhattan Project to deal with it. And I’d be equally unsurprised if he reiterated his comment that it’s a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese.”
I'd but much more surprised by the former. The man is much like AGW - aside for all the hot air, his actions favor denialism heavily.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
528. VAbeachhurricanes
4:29 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 512. nrtiwlnvragn:

Here’s what optimistic liberals get wrong about Trump and climate change


Also, thought Republicans were adverse to the national debt? They raise it to 29 Trillion


Aren't those the debt and deficit ceilings? Not the forecast?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
527. annabatic
4:26 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Can anyone tell me why I'm having trouble linking articles? I don't know if it's one of the glitches- I used to be able to do it.

Here's what happens:
Link

(Edited- Oh, it doesn't show as a working link in preview mode, but it works.)

Here is the title:
More extreme storms ahead for California
New technique predicts frequency of heavy precipitation with global warming

Date:
January 3, 2017
Source:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology


re#333, I can't imagine a real biologist saying that CO2 levels are irrelevant. I used to work in biotech..

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
526. Patrap
4:26 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
A really good FB site to catch a lot of recent studies and more.


Yale Program on Climate Change Communication FB Page
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
525. LAbonbon
4:25 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 512. nrtiwlnvragn:

Here’s what optimistic liberals get wrong about Trump and climate change


Also, thought Republicans were adverse to the national debt? They raise it to 29 Trillion

Great article. Highly recommend. Talk about covering the 'big picture' from state to national to international levels. Thanks for sharing this.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
524. sonofagunn
4:22 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 518. snotly:

As far a fixing the world, didn't fixing the world get us here in the first place? Now you're going to tell me some other unintended consequence won't come out of solar, wind, nuclear and other renewables? Maybe nature wants us to finish ourselves off, so our replacements can fix things . Maybe that's the 'natural ' order of things . Not us coming up with endless solutions.


Sure, there will be unintended consequences, but we should always be striving for continuous improvement.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
523. Neapolitan
4:20 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 516. pipelines:

wow, just added it all up. Birmingham from December to December set 13 record highs without a single record low, pretty incredible.

I haven't found a way to look up record warm minimums and cold maximums, anyone know of a resource for such information?
Do you mean for particular stations, or overall?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
522. Grothar
4:18 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
521. StormJunkie
4:15 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
This track with just a hair faster push of the cold air or a hair slower moving low would put a lot of snow on most of the Carolinas coast. Still find it an outlying scenario at this point. Very small differences will make big differences in what the folks close to the freezing line see.



CHS NWS sums it up pretty well.

Again, the area or rain or snow will be highly dependent
on factors like a moving/strengthening/weakening of the low and/or
high. A small change in any of these could lead to large changes in
the forecast. As the day progresses into evening the rain will
decrease with the retreating low, but the cold air building into the
area with the approaching high could support a brief changeover to
snow across a decent portion of our area. Given everything mentioned
above, it is too early to determine if any accumulations would
occur.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
520. Patrap
4:10 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
CO2 ppm has gone up 100ppm since I was born 57 years ago this 15th.

We cannot in no way, no how continue up the CO2ppm ladder.

It will overwhelm a atmosphere that already seeks chaos on a Daily scale.

When I spoke with Dr. Mann at the AGU Legal Symposium last month,..we chatted about the trend up thru the next 100 years without serious mitigation. Sadly, we both concur that the siren call to stop will be poo pooed till never.

I think the 2 pralines I gave Him from here helped me corner Him for 5 minutes.

He is a great Guy too.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
519. Patrap
4:04 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Well there's a idea?

: P


I saw a solar spill once, the light got on EVERYTHING.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
518. snotly
3:55 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
As far a fixing the world, didn't fixing the world get us here in the first place? Now you're going to tell me some other unintended consequence won't come out of solar, wind, nuclear and other renewables? Maybe nature wants us to finish ourselves off, so our replacements can fix things . Maybe that's the 'natural ' order of things . Not us coming up with endless solutions.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
517. LAbonbon
3:45 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
One could get whiplash...

A Yuuuuuge Climate Flip Flop (from The Atlantic, June 2016)

On a different note, also from The Atlantic, this intriguing piece:

The Republicans Who Want Trump to Fight Climate Change
Meet the “eco-right.”

Kate Aronoff 8:00 AM ET

"Not everyone interested in curbing climate change is tearing their hair out about Donald Trump's election. Though the president-elect seems to be packing his administration with climate deniers and fossil fuel industry veterans, a small, unconventional band of environmentalists sees potential.

“We hope,” says Bob Inglis, “that Donald Trump sees an opportunity to complete the sentence this way: Richard Nixon went to China, Bill Clinton signed welfare reform, and Donald Trump did climate change.”"
Full article

excerpt: “Can I predict what he’s going to do? No, I don’t think anybody can,” Lehrer told The Atlantic of the president-elect. “I would not be totally surprised if he were to give some speech announcing that [climate change] was a major crisis, announcing a new Manhattan Project to deal with it. And I’d be equally unsurprised if he reiterated his comment that it’s a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese.”
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
516. pipelines
3:39 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
wow, just added it all up. Birmingham from December to December set 13 record highs without a single record low, pretty incredible.

I haven't found a way to look up record warm minimums and cold maximums, anyone know of a resource for such information?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
515. StormJunkie
3:31 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 511. VAbeachhurricanes:

Acceptable




Completely unacceptable. We need the low to slow down by about 6 hours. Give the cold air a bit longer to build in. That said, even the last few runs of the GFS have shown the cold air taking longer to build in. Finding it increasingly unlikely that there is snow south of the Columbia, SC to Wilmington, NC line.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
514. Patrap
3:25 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 513. Xandra:

Wall Street Journal Editor Says His Newspaper Won’t Call Donald Trump’s Lies ‘Lies’









and,

Quoting 12. Patrap:



Ya See, it begins like dis here stuff in the Great White North.

Wisconsin DNR: Climate change cause debatable

Environment The Associated Press · Madison, Wis. · Dec 29, 2016


The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has quietly removed language from its website that said humans and greenhouse gases are the main cause of climate change.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports the website now states the cause of climate change is debatable. Gone are sentences attributing global warming to human activities and rising carbon dioxide levels. Also gone is language saying that scientists agree the Great Lakes region will see longer summers and shorter winters, decreased ice cover and changes in rain and snow patterns if climate change continues.

• More: Climate coverage

The new language states: "As it has done throughout the centuries, the earth is going through a change. The reasons for this change at this particular time in the earth's long history are being debated and researched by academic entities outside the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources."

The blurb goes on to state that the DNR's responsibility is to manage Wisconsin's natural resources through whatever event presents itself and the staff is ready to adapt its strategies to protect lakes, waterways, plants and wildlife.

Most scientists agree burning fossil fuels has increased greenhouse gases and caused global warming. A 2014 United Nations report found that human influence on climate is clear. The report also found global warming is unequivocal and unprecedented.

Republican Gov. Scott Walker controls the DNR. He and his fellow Republicans have been critical of President Barack Obama's climate change initiatives. Republican Attorney General Brad Schimel joined other states in a 2015 federal lawsuit challenging limitations on power plant carbon emissions. The DNR has removed other online information about global warming since Walker took office, including a trove of information compiled by former Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle's global warming task force and a teaching guide on climate change. The agency turned that guide over to the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point.

DNR spokesperson James Dick told the Journal Sentinel that the climate change language revisions "reflects our position on this topic that we have communicated for years, that our agency regularly must respond to a variety of environmental and human stressors from drought, flooding, wind events to changing demographics."

Joel Bammeier, president of the Chicago-based Alliance for the Great Lakes, said he doesn't understand why the DNR made the climate change revisions.

"To me, it looks like they are trying to cover up a debate that really isn't happening."

Paul Robbins, director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison's Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies said the revisions don't surprise him.

"When climate change gets so politicized" he said, "you can imagine agencies and its leaders haggling over wording."

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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
513. Xandra
3:18 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
512. nrtiwlnvragn
3:17 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Here’s what optimistic liberals get wrong about Trump and climate change


Also, thought Republicans were adverse to the national debt? They raise it to 29 Trillion
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
511. VAbeachhurricanes
3:10 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Acceptable

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
510. nrtiwlnvragn
2:51 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 507. StormJunkie:



Is the GFSX the same as the parallel?



And btw, glad to see someone got this old jalopy working again. Was pretty much unusable last night.


No On second thought, I think so Link

GFSX: Experimental T1534 Semi-Lagrangian GFS, same as the operational GFS except that it is run within the NEMS infrastructure, an updated convection and PBL scheme, and a NSST model.

Site still not working well, they must have run out of duct tape.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
509. LAbonbon
2:45 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
@StormJunkie - don't think it's really working, unfortunately. I just got several error messages in a row, and know that the weather in Bulgaria isn't so bad and it's snowing in Prague!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
508. Skyepony (Mod)
2:44 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 466. michaeladams:

That's part of it, but I've heard complaints of visual blight, too.

Let me add. Building on top of mountain. Bad. Covering mountain with windmills. No problem at all.

Large electrical lines and their large clear cut blights already traverse power tower topped mountain tops in developed areas. The easements and lines to carry the power are already there. To add windmills to the power towers would make the existing blight a lot more sustainable.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
507. StormJunkie
2:41 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 496. nrtiwlnvragn:

GFSX - no SE snow


Is the GFSX the same as the parallel?



And btw, glad to see someone got this old jalopy working again. Was pretty much unusable last night.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
506. LAbonbon
2:29 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
#484 -cRRKampen - thank you for the information.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
505. NNYer
2:20 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 469. vanderwaalselectrics:



Van der waals is a weak electrical bond between the hydrogen and oxygen atoms. The hydrogen atoms tend to loose an electron and the oxygen takes it in it orbitals. This is what allows the phases of water, gas, liquid and ice. CO2 also has charges when its dissolved and those charges impact the phase change rates. In the context of electrical fields the rate change becomes even more interesting. There are many papers starting with cryogenics papers. All acids have this impact, including SOx from volcanoes. Clouds have an electrical complexity not discussed in the climate change debate.


OK, it's lose not loose. Other than that, well...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
504. cRRKampen
2:17 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 497. PensacolaDoug:

Leftist hot air?

Nah, some pets are boring. iList asylum.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
503. Xyrus2000
2:17 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 489. HaoleboySurfEC:

Agree. However the comments get political to the point where it's almost completely one-sided. What ends up happening is you drive away diversity of opinion.




Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Everyone is not entitled to their own facts.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
502. ohiofog
2:15 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 494. weathermanwannabe:

And the blog glitches have become unbearable to point that I am having trouble logging in to this blog; don't know if this in only related to this particular blog or the entire site but it would be nice to work out the kinks over the next few weeks as we head into 2017............................


First World problem.

Dont let it get to you
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
501. Neapolitan
2:11 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 461. vanderwaalselectrics:

I consider myself the leading climatologist in the world.
And I consider myself Napoleon Bonaparte, prominent 19th century military leader, and Emperor of the French. Pleased to make your acquaintance!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
500. PensacolaDoug
2:06 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
That was funny. I don't care who ya are!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
498. ChiThom
2:00 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
C-c-cold in Chicagoland this morning. After a couple weeks of 40s, suddenly it dropped to 9° overnight, and it is going to stay below 20° for the next five days, and as low as 4°. It's a bit windy, too, and the wind stings your face and exposed skin.
You know what they say in Chicago? If you don't like the weather, just wait because it will change.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
496. nrtiwlnvragn
1:14 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
GFSX - no SE snow


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
495. NativeSun
1:07 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 445. schwankmoe:



oh well then, given that all life is the exact same, then humans are totally adapted to the crazy-hot environment from back then.

just because some life is adapted to some environment doesn't automatically mean that human life is adapted to it. this is why I can't breathe underwater.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
494. weathermanwannabe
1:03 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
And the blog glitches have become unbearable to point that I am having trouble logging in to this blog; don't know if this in only related to this particular blog or the entire site but it would be nice to work out the kinks over the next few weeks as we head into 2017............................
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
493. weathermanwannabe
12:56 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Good Morning; here is the forecast and look for Conus today (Winter pattern at it's finest): nice to see snow-pack for the Sierra Nevada region to help with the drought in California going into this Spring.






Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
492. Uragani
12:29 PM GMT on January 04, 2017
Storms: left and right.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
491. cRRKampen
11:55 AM GMT on January 04, 2017
Quoting 489. HaoleboySurfEC:

Agree. However the comments get political to the point where it's almost completely one-sided. What ends up happening is you drive away diversity of opinion.



A good thing, that. Given it means driving away climate revisionism.

I always wonder why I never get attacked for closing out different mathematical 'opinions'. I mean, mathematicians are all worse than Kim Jung Il!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
490. JohnLonergan
11:46 AM GMT on January 04, 2017
A nice graphic from Blomberg showing the main climate forcings

What's really warming the world
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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