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Haiyan's Storm Surge: A Detailed Look

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:49 PM GMT on December 19, 2013

The Philippines is a nation used to seeing devastating typhoons. Between 1984 and 2012, the Philippines saw seven tropical cyclones that killed at least 1,000 people. In all of these storms, it was destructive flooding due to heavy inland rains that was the main killer. This is in contrast to the Atlantic basin, where storm surge from the ocean has historically been the main killer. That's due, in part, to the fact that the Philippines gets hit more often by intense tropical cyclones than any place in the world, and this has influenced settlement patterns. The portion of the coast most prone to typhoon strikes--the east coast of Luzon Island--is not heavily populated, and does not have any major cities at low elevation that are prone to large storm surges. The islands of the Philippines farther to the south, like Leyte, Samar, and Mindanao, are hit far less often, since they are closer to the Equator, where typhoons have a tougher time getting spinning due to the lack of an extra boost from Earth's rotation. This relative lack of typhoon strikes has allowed more settlement on the east coast, and Tacloban (population 221,000) is the largest city on the Philippines' east coast. Tacloban also happens to be low-lying, with much of the city at less than ten feet elevation. It's position at the pointy end of a funnel-shaped bay makes its location particularly vulnerable to storm surge, since the topography acts to concentrate water at the apex of the funnel. The occurrence of a massive storm surge disaster in Tacloban was only a matter of time, and that time happened to be November 8, 2013, during Super Typhoon Haiyan.


Video 1. Nickson Gensis, Plan Philippines Community Development Worker, filmed from the top flood of a boarding house what is probably the most remarkable video of storm surge ever taken, during Super Typhoon Haiyan in Hernani, in Eastern Samar, Philippines. Australian tropical cyclone expert Bruce Harper had this to say about the remarkable "tsunami-like" storm surge observed at 46 seconds into the video:

This site at Hernani is quite exposed on the eastern coast of Samar, and has a fringing reef. My guess is that we are seeing the sudden exposure to deep water ocean swell waves that were triggered by the tide and sea level increase due to the storm surge. There is a critical water level where waves impacting on reefs can suddenly cause a massive increase in wave setup in the form of a tsunami-like effect such as we see in the video. A similar effect was reported at Basey, ten miles to the northeast of Tacloban across the San Juanico Strait, in this news report: "Edgar dela Cruz, 45, of Barangay Mercado, recounted to The STAR the sight of what looked like a tsunami. During the strange lull in the typhoon, he went out of his house. Jinamok Island was a kilometer across the sea from his village, he said. The sea receded about halfway to the island. 'There was a kind of low black cloud moving toward us,' Dela Cruz said. 'We heard a loud boom, like an explosion. And then we saw the giant waves--four giant waves--it was horrible.' Their house was destroyed. He said he and his family escaped with only the clothes on their backs." In this case, the reports suggest that northeast winds ahead of the center of Haiyan caused an initial “negative surge” effect in the shallow waters in this area, followed by the winds turning to E and SE as the center came closer. You can then develop quite a gradient in the water levels capable of producing this effect. The fast speed of the storm may also have contributed to this specific phenomenon. Andrew Kennedy, Associate Professor in Notre Dame's Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering & Earth Sciences wrote this email to me: "My student, Yao Zhang, has been doing some preliminary estimates of the waves and surge at Hernani, Eastern Samar, using a one-dimensional Boussinesq model. These show periodic surges and recessions very similar to those seen by Nickson Gensis in the video you referenced. Magnitudes are quite large--over 5 meters--which does not include any initial storm surge. I would not take all of the simulations as being perfectly accurate, since we do not have perfect bathymetry and incident waves. In any case, Yao has made a video of one of his model runs and it may be seen at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPYGQCE3778." The middle plot is a zoomed-in version of the larger-scale version shown in the top panel.

Why wasn't Tacloban prepared for Haiyan's storm surge?
At this writing, at least 7900 people are dead or missing from Haiyan, making the typhoon the deadliest disaster in Philippine history. The vast majority of these deaths were due to storm surge. The Philippines have never had a storm surge disaster responsible for killing hundreds of people in living memory, and thus is was difficult to communicate the danger. As early as 36 hours before the storm, advisories from the Philippine meteorological agency, PAGASA, were predicting a storm surge of 15 feet for Tacloban. That should have been enough to trigger a mass evacuation of low-lying areas of Tacloban, yet this did not happen. As senior presidential aide Rene Alemendras said, "I was talking to the people of Tacloban...they said 'we were ready for the wind. We were not ready for the water."


Video 2. This animation by Deltares shows computed storm surge levels and wind vectors as Super Typhoon Haiyan makes landfall near Tacloban City, The Philippines. Surge levels were computed using Delft3D two days after landfall. The wind fields are based on Joint Typhoon Warning Center data, and generated a simulated storm surge of over 16.4 feet (5 meters) for Tacloban.

How high was Haiyan's storm surge?
According to storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham, the record highest storm surge in modern history in East Asia was 24 feet (7.3-meters) in 1897 on Samar Island, Philippines--the same location where Haiyan initially hit. He estimated that Haiyan's surge was very close to that at the Tacloban Airport: 21.3 feet (6.5 meters). Storm chaser Josh Morgerman of iCyclone.com rode out the storm in a hotel a mile northwest of the airport, where the surge may have been even higher, due to the shape of the coast. He stated in an email to me that "we determined our location to be at 26 ft (based on USGS data), and we flooded to a depth of about 4 ft, suggesting a whopping 30-ft surge. (Afterward, I had a geography expert research this, and he came up with the same value for our location—8 m or 26 ft.)" A storm surge of 21 - 30 feet hitting densely populated Tacloban, which did not fully evacuate low-lying areas, was bound to cause thousands of deaths.

A detailed look at Haiyan's storm surge
Hurricane scientist Margie Kieper, who wrote a remarkable analysis of Hurricane Katrina's storm surge for wunderground, also studied Haiyan's storm surge in detail. The rest of this post is her analysis.

You know the more I reflect on the surge damage from STY Haiyan the more I realize this is an enormously extensive surge. Even considerably far north of the eye along Eastern Samar's Pacific coast water came inland with enough height and velocity to destroy all coastal towns. And in the Gulf of Leyte, the surge damage along the coast was just as extensive and dramatic. Unfortunately, there seems to be only the one main coastal road ringing the island of Samar, to provide access to all these coastal communities.


Figure 1. Locations in the Philippines where a significant storm surge from Super Typhoon Haiyan was observed.

I just don't think I have ever seen anything on par with this. And this was a primarily rural area with small towns, not a developed coastline as with Katrina, Ike, etc. Haiyan's surge was most severe in Leyte, Samar, and Eastern Samar bordering the Gulf of Leyte, and the Pacific Coast of Eastern Samar (see map). Surge heights were on par with forecasts publicized by Philippines meteorological service, and may even have been a little higher than the forecasts. Their surge numbers were generated using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Storm Surge model using JMA forecast data and WXTide results. The model predicted 15 feet (4.5 meters) for Tacloban, and an estimate of about 21 feet has been suggested by Dr. Hal Needham on stormsurge2010.blogspot.com.

The storm surges at Tacloban and across the bay at Basey have been well-documented in the news. But along the Leyte coast south of Tacloban, the communities of Palo, Tanauan, Tolosa, and Dulag also received significant surge. Coastal communities along the northern shore of the Gulf of Leyte, and the connecting road, which runs in many places right along the shore, were all also destroyed by surge. Here, also, bridges along the coastal road such as at Lawaan, were also destroyed. In Samar, Basey and Marabut were heavily damaged by surge.


Figure 2. Storm surge damage from Haiyan in Palo, near where the center of the eye passed. This location is just south of Tacolban on Leyte Island. Image credit: rappler.com.


Figure 3. Storm surge damage from Haiyan in Tolosa, just south of where the center of the eye passed. This location is south of Tacolban on Leyte Island. Image credit: rappler.com.


Figure 4. Storm surge damage from Haiyan in Hernani on Samar Island. Image credit: rappler.com.


Figure 5. Storm surge damage from Haiyan in Lawaan on Samar Island. Image credit: rappler.com.


Figure 6. Storm surge damage from Haiyan in Marabut on Samar Island. Image credit: rappler.com.


Figure 7. Storm surge damage from Haiyan on Victory Island, Samar. Image credit: Getty Images.

Eastern Samar Representative Ben Evardone, in an interview with Rappler, noted that eleven out of the 23 municipalities in Eastern Samar were devastated by the storm, plus the Borongan City and the island of Homohon: Lawaan, Balangiga, Giporlos, Quinapondan, Macarthur, Hernani, Balankayan, Maydolong, Salcedo, Mercedes, and Guiuan. After a helicopter survey, he told reporters, “There is no more Eastern Samar province. You cannot recognize it. The devastation was horrific."

One other location that had extremely high surge was Hernani, facing the Pacific Ocean north of Matarinao Bay, where the storm surge was described as being two stories high. Hernani and Balangkayan are described as "destroyed" by the surge, and photos from Rappler's Franz Lopez bear this out (the entire photo essay can be seen at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTrNTNNiIQA ). The surge obliterated the "first two rows" of houses along the shore at Balangkayan and eroded the beachfront there.

North of Hernani, along the Pacific Coast of Eastern Samar, surge destroyed bridges at the capital Borongan and at General MacArthur. The governor of Eastern Samar was not familiar with the term "storm surge" and was quoted as saying, "Nobody expected the sea water to surge through the towns. Usually, typhoons here just bring rain. Those who live near rivers and rice fields, they’re the ones who are asked to evacuated. Those living near the shoreline, that’s unexpected." In other words, they were familiar with freshwater flooding issues from heavy rainfall, but not familiar with storm surge. A resident of Maydolong, north of Balangkayan, described the damage as similar to a nuclear bomb, an analogy commonly invoked to describe surge damage. These areas also received strong winds which resulted in flying debris in the air at the same time the surge was moving inland. South of Hernani, in Guiuan, homes right on the coastline or built on peninsulas little more than sandbars, known in the U.S. as being in the "velocity zone", were also obliterated by water.


Video 3. The storm surge in Tacloban, Philippines during the landfall of Super Typhoon Haiyan is captured at about the 3:30 - 4:20 mark in this video shot by ABSCBN News of the Philippines.

The 1912 typhoon that devastated Tacloban
Haiyan is not the first typhoon to devastate Tacloban. The Philippine Star reported on a November 26, 1912 typhoon that struck the city. The news story from the Washington Herald that they cite reads: "That 15,000 persons were probably killed and wounded in a typhoon...probably half the population of the two cities had been lost." A pressure trace from the city showed the pressure fell to an impressive 924 mb during the typhoon. However, weather maps of the event show that the eye of the typhoon may have passed just north of the city, preventing a massive storm surge from hitting. There were three New York Times articles about this typhoon, one reporting about 300 killed, and another reporting, "Despite the enormous damage in Tacloban, the capital of Leyte, the fatalities there were less than a dozen." Thanks go to hurricane scientist Sim Aberson of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division for this info.

Jeff Masters and Margie Kieper


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1539. Skyepony (Mod)
5:31 AM GMT on December 24, 2013
Flood in Brazil on Tuesday, 24 December, 2013 at 05:10 (05:10 AM) UTC.
Description
Floods and mudslides caused by heavy downpours in southeastern Brazil have killed at least 20 people and forced another 40,000 to evacuate. The heavy rains, which began last week, affected 45 Brazilian municipalities, causing some of their major roads to crumble. The civil defense department of Minas Gerais said on Monday that 14 people died in the state because of floodwaters or mudslides, and about 700 others sought shelter in public buildings or the homes of friends and relatives. Neighboring Espirito Santo state said another six people were killed there, and some 40,150 had to leave their homes due to mudslides and rivers overflowing their banks. In 24 hours, 130 millimeters of rain had fallen in the state.
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1538. Skyepony (Mod)
5:28 AM GMT on December 24, 2013
Unusual geological event in Canary-Islands (Esp.) on Monday, 23 December, 2013 at 19:33 (07:33 PM) UTC.
Description
Spain's National Geographical Institute says the Canary Island of El Hierro has been rocked by more than 50 tremors in 24 hours, two years after a new volcano began to appear off its southern coast. So far the resurgent seismic activity has caused no damage, a regional government spokeswoman said Monday. She spoke on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to be identified in the media. The last time the nascent volcano rattled the island the government evacuated the port of La Restinga, banned aircraft from flying over the southern tip and ordered ships to avoid the area. At one point residents could see smouldering volcanic rocks spewing from the sea. El Hierro has some 11,000 residents and was originally formed by volcanic activity.
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1537. CaribBoy
8:15 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1533. PalmBeachWeather:
Yep....Very warm here in south Florida also... I have had two by-pass surgeries, a hip replacement, poor circulation, my meds make me dizzy, I get winded, Thank goodness I still have my Florida driver's license


:s
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1536. CaribBoy
8:13 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
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1535. barbamz
8:02 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Very last post from me this evening ;-)
New BBC weather video, starting in the eastern US and explaining the record jet stream (I've posted about it earlier):

UK stormy weather explained
BBC weather video, 23 December 2013 Last updated at 17:17
BBC Weather's Matt Taylor takes a look at the reasons behind our current stormy weather across the country in the run up to Christmas.
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1534. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:00 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1533. PalmBeachWeather
7:59 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1529. CaribBoy:


Really!!!!!!! It's very hot for Dec 23!!!
Yep....Very warm here in south Florida also... I have had two by-pass surgeries, a hip replacement, poor circulation, my meds make me dizzy, I get winded, Thank goodness I still have my Florida driver's license
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1532. Sfloridacat5
7:58 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1482. Jedkins01:
Temperature contrasts across the state of Florida even with the same air mass across the whole region never ceases to amaze me.

Christmas Eve into Christmas morning forecast for Tallahassee:

High:58
Low:28

For Tampa Bay area:
High:67
Low:46

For Miami area:
High:81
Low:67


This is why I don't live in South Florida, too warm for me. I don't like the cold north with ice, snow and blizzards with many days that don't even crack freezing, but south Florida can be just too warm. A high of 81 and a low 76 is just gross for Christmas even and Christmas morning.

I think I'll take the cooler but not too cold weather in Central and North Florida over that of South Florida. We still have beautiful beaches in the northern half of the state, but at least it can sometimes get substantially cool enough to enjoy the winter holidays :)


I'm very glad cooler weather is coming. I like the summer season, and I'll take heat during the summer, but I just don't want heat year round, the 80's and humidity we've had the last several days with near record or record highs broken, good riddance!

The funny thing is, some people act like these really warm temps in Florida are common in the winter, but we must remember, while the can happen, and do, we've been near record highs, so its far from normal for Florida.

In fact, its just as likely for us to see highs near 50 and lows in the mid 20's, since such temps have occurred about as frequently as this warm humid weather we've had as of late.
Its really all about the large scale weather pattern. We could see another deep trough pattern open in up in winter bringing massive amounts of cold air to Florida and you would never know how warm it was in December.

Not saying it will happen, but if we get a negative AO, then it probably will since negative AO means a higher chance of cold air spilling well into the deep south.


Coming back from Texas I stayed in Tallahassee overnight. Woke up the next morning with ice/frost completely covering my car.
Drove down to Fort Myers and it was 80+ degrees and the beach was packed with people.
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1531. StormTrackerScott
7:54 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1529. CaribBoy:


Really!!!!!!! It's very hot for Dec 23!!!


Been hot now for several days. You should have seen all of these northerners in Orlando over the weekend at the Theme Parks. There was an ambulance on hand to treat heat related illnesses.
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1530. barbamz
7:51 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1527. CaribBoy:
Very percistent thunderstorms over and around the N Leewards... reaching the Virgin Islands.

Link



Your moisture on TPW:


And watch the racing moisture in the north driven by this somehow record jet stream!
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1529. CaribBoy
7:51 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1524. StormTrackerScott:
Temps nearing 90 now.



Really!!!!!!! It's very hot for Dec 23!!!
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1528. ricderr
7:50 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
This is very funny! Guess what the GFS predicted for us for today a few weeks ago. Goes to show nature has its own plans.


this is why we never...NEVER....hype the long range models :-)
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1527. CaribBoy
7:49 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Very percistent thunderstorms over and around the N Leewards... reaching the Virgin Islands.

Link

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1526. Climate175
7:46 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
This is very funny! Guess what the GFS predicted for us for today a few weeks ago. Goes to show nature has its own plans.
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1525. barbamz
7:45 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
The Philippines is devastated as much by unfair debt as typhoon Haiyan
The Guardian, December 23, 2013
By Christmas Eve, a country struggling with foreign loans and climate change will have spent $1bn on debts in seven weeks

---------------------

Good night from Germany, here's the latest from "Dirk" in the northern parts of UK (stay safe!):



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1524. StormTrackerScott
7:44 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Temps nearing 90 now.

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1523. StormTrackerScott
7:44 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Another day another record high

Near Record High Temperatures Again This Afternoon
A warm southerly flow ahead of a cold front will produce one more day of much above normal temperatures. It will also be more humid as higher moisture moves in. High temperatures will reach the mid 80s across east central Florida which will result in some records being tied or broken. The combination of increased moisture and warm temperatures should produce isolated showers this afternoon. The best chance will be between Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure coast.

Record Highs for Mon Dec 23rd:

Daytona Beach

84

1990, 1956

Orlando

85

2011

Melbourne

84

1981

Vero Beach

84

1990, 1967

All-time record highs for December:

Daytona Beach

88

1990

Orlando

95

1922

Melbourne

90

1942

Vero Beach

87

1942, 1972, 1991, 2002, 2009
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1522. CaribBoy
7:39 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1510. barbamz:



I've somehow saved the address from this site, lol. (Click to animate) Propably to keep up with your weather CaribBoy :-) Glad you'll have an interesting holiday with lush green on your island!


Thanks a lot for the link... that cell between St Martin and St Barths brought frequent thunder and some visible lightning flashes :-)) I really love that weather : dark, cool and stormy! Though we had little rain so far... most of it skirted us.
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1521. Climate175
7:37 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
00z , so i think you can see there is consistency for a storm around then.
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1520. washingtonian115
7:37 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1516. Doppler22:
31.5" of snow in Ashland, WI from Gemini and lake-effect snow afterward and its still snowing there.

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1519. Doppler22
7:37 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1518. Climate175:
06z

EDIT: Woops, I just saw your first picture :P It may be fantasy but it would be fantastic if that happened.
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1518. Climate175
7:36 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
06z
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1517. Climate175
7:35 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
12z
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1516. Doppler22
7:32 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
31.5" of snow in Ashland, WI from Gemini and lake-effect snow afterward and its still snowing there.
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1515. barbamz
7:31 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
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1514. Tropicsweatherpr
7:28 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1503. CaribBoy:


Flooding in St Maarten?


Plenty of rain is forecast to move thru the NE Caribbean islands in the next 24-48 hours so stay safe and dry. Stay tuned for more information as this event unfolds.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST MON DEC 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEPENING TUTT LOW CONTINUED TO SHIFT WEST SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...WITH WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA NOW UNDER A JET MAXIMUM NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE REGION...WHILE AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH AXIS NOW CROSSING THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOOSENING OF THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONSEQUENTLY DIMINISHING NORTHEASTERLIES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEVELOPING TUTT LOW
AND THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT A CONTINUED DETERIORATION IN THE OVERALL WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS PRESENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALL SUGGEST
THAT THE TUTT LOW IS TO RETROGRESS WESTWARD OVER PUERTO RICO BY EARLY
TUESDAY...THEN MEANDER IN ITS VICINITY THROUGH AT LEAST CHRISTMAS
DAY. UNDER THESE UNSTABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND THE INCREASING
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW... EXPECT A MOSTLY WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY.
THEREFORE... WITH THE PRESENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED WEATHER SCENARIO...
THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOME AREAS WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ACCOMPANYING STRONG WINDS GUSTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BASED ON
THE PRESENT WIND FLOW AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...THE
AREAS TO BE MOST AFFECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD
BE ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF AND EAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
AS OVER...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
IN WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FRIDAY...AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...DURING WHICH TIME THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND THE TUTT SHOULD
BEGIN TO FILL AND PULL EAST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH REESTABLISHES
ONCE AGAIN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
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1513. ARiot
7:27 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1509. Climate175:
I wonder when we will actually get a good snowstorm around here. The thing i very most hate is the fact the minute we get precipitation, the warm air comes to interact... When we get bone chilling cold air, dry as a bone. I already said to myself we are not getting anymore snow this month. I cross my fingers and hope at least one storm will slam us hard and we can enjoy it.


Nope. Mid A storms can be nasty. I don't hope for any totals over 8-10 myself, ever :-)

http://weblogs.marylandweather.com/2010/03/three_ big_snowstorms_all_ranke.html
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1512. washingtonian115
7:26 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1509. Climate175:
I wonder when we will actually get a good snowstorm around here. The thing i very most hate is the fact the minute we get precipitation, the warm air comes to interact... When we get bone chilling cold air, dry as a bone. I already said to myself we are not getting anymore snow this month. I think our next chance of real snow is in January
We'll have to see about January.Not many forecasters are sounding optimistic for us snow lovers.
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1511. GeorgiaStormz
7:22 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1508. barbamz:


Like this addition in the article, lol:

Honorable Mention –
Sharknado


Being at wx camp watching that movie in our freetime was probably the best part of the whole thing.

It was hilarious.
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1510. barbamz
7:21 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1503. CaribBoy:


Flooding in St Maarten?



I've somehow saved the address from this site, lol. (Click to animate) Propably to keep up with your weather CaribBoy :-) Glad you'll have an interesting holiday with lush green on your island!
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1509. Climate175
7:17 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1507. washingtonian115:
CWG's top 5 weather events of 2013
Link
I wonder when we will actually get a good snowstorm around here. The thing i very most hate is the fact the minute we get precipitation, the warm air comes to interact... When we get bone chilling cold air, dry as a bone. I already said to myself we are not getting anymore snow this month. I think our next chance of real snow is in January
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1508. barbamz
7:15 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1507. washingtonian115:
CWG's top 5 weather events of 2013
Link


Like this addition in the article, lol:

Honorable Mention –
Sharknado
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1507. washingtonian115
7:11 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
CWG's top 5 weather events of 2013
Link
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1506. Climate175
7:09 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Good Times....
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1505. Skyepony (Mod)
7:09 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1460. FtMyersgal:

GEOS-5 Keeps taking the little disturbance in the BOC & strengthening it as it moves toward FL for some end of next week rain & storm.





CMC is still calling for the invest from the wave coming. For it to take shape N of the islands, get through the Bahamas & out to sea.



I think I've leaning with the GEOS-5. Matches the pattern we've been in..& all that dry air in the wave.
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1504. Climate175
7:08 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
There are reports of Stinkbugs,Mosquitoes, and even Bees in the DC/Baltimore area. I heard the reports from other people while reading their comments on a Facebook Page. We are under a war of the Seasons. Winter vs Spring. I should start posting snowmageddon pics again to cheer up my mood.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1503. CaribBoy
7:07 PM GMT on December 23, 2013


Flooding in St Maarten?
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1502. weathermanwannabe
7:04 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1500. EricfromJax:



I for one would love to see it snow up here in Jacksonville again. I think the last real snow we had up here was in 1989 that actually stuck on the ground. I don't see any setup like that anytime soon but maybe January or February?


I have been in Tallahassee now for 13 years and have only seen two light flurries (for 15 minutes) in that period. However, you drive north of here into GA or AL for an hour and you can hit some snow in recent Winters; the moderating effect of the Gulf and Atlantic, and lower latitudes-warm temps, for the Peninsula make it extremely rare.

The best chances for snow up here, like you mention, are in the coldest months of Jan and Feb if a rainy front comes through and air temps are in the 30's all the way to the ground.
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1501. Climate175
7:02 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1457. FunnelVortex:
What it looks like outside right now.



Jealous, wash?
Our day for a blizzard shall come !
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1500. EricfromJax
6:55 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1489. weathermanwannabe:
I have not seen any snow forecast in Florida from anywhere in the State (a rare event in any quantity) but the current "training" effect from the front draped from the Gulf waters crossing North Florida is combined with falling temps in the upper atmosphere. If the rain is still around over the next 24 hours, and conditions are just right all the way toward the surface, I am thinking some folks in North Florida or Southern/SE Georgia might see a light flurry or two over the next 24.



I for one would love to see it snow up here in Jacksonville again. I think the last real snow we had up here was in 1989 that actually stuck on the ground. I don't see any setup like that anytime soon but maybe January or February? Based off of this long range forecast from accuweather it doesn't look like a big deal at all to me kinda mild if you ask me. The last year I remember it getting real cold up here was in 2010 when the high was 38 one day.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/cecil-field-fl/3 2221/january-weather/8988_poi?monyr=1/1/2014
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1499. washingtonian115
6:52 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1497. VR46L:


Now that is what I call a funny Comment !

Anyway

has that cloud in the west been named yet ?



Yes it's called storm.
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1498. Patrap
6:50 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
344 am CST Monday Dec 23 2013

Short term...

cold front finally beginning to exit our forecast area as a kicker
trough digs down from the central plain states. Much cooler and drier
conditions will prevail through midweek as a result. Skies expected
to clear out area wide by late this afternoon with temperatures
struggling to make it out of the lower and middle 50s today. Below
normal and dry conditions will continue Tuesday and Tuesday night with a
hard freeze possible over areas along and north of the I-12
corridor on Christmas morning. Even areas along the southshore
including the New Orleans area possibly reaching to near freezing
on Wednesday morning.



Long term...

Wednesday night though the upcoming weekend. Dry and cool
conditions expected to continue through Friday as another
reinforcing upper level trough swings down from the plains into
the upper Midwest on Wednesday. Temperatures expected to slowly
moderate closer to normal by the Saturday with a weak return flow
taking hold as the trough slides off to the east.

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1497. VR46L
6:48 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1494. Thunderfan:


Looks like the water surrounding Florida will get some much needed rain...


Now that is what I call a funny Comment !

Anyway

has that cloud in the west been named yet ?



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1496. PalmBeachWeather
6:47 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1489. weathermanwannabe:
I have not seen any snow forecast in Florida from anywhere in the State (a rare event in any quantity) but the current "training" effect from the front draped from the Gulf waters crossing North Florida is combined with falling temps in the upper atmosphere. If the rain is still around over the next 24 hours, and conditions are just right all the way toward the surface, I am thinking some folks in North Florida or Southern/SE Georgia might see a light flurry or two over the next 24.
At least 50 degrees or more from snow here in south Florida... Still have my "old lady thong on"...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1495. PalmBeachWeather
6:45 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1465. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


What is the general rule about eating purple snow?
If purple snow is related to Barney & Friends, I would say NO, Don't eat it
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1494. Thunderfan
6:42 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Lets up this verify.

Euro precip accums


Looks like the water surrounding Florida will get some much needed rain...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1493. washingtonian115
6:42 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Quoting 1464. GeorgiaStormz:


Hmmm but it's been colder in DC than it has been here.

And everything that dies in winter is still quite dead.
Not these trees.I've noticed that they have been blooming earlier.And they had a segment on Fox 5 saying how the plants are growing earlier now than ever.D.C has become suitable for tropical plants.they can survive longer now.
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1492. StormTrackerScott
6:40 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Lets up this verify.

Euro precip accums
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1491. PedleyCA
6:38 PM GMT on December 23, 2013


Sweet
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1490. StormTrackerScott
6:37 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
Whew this is one sharp trough coming across the Gulf



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1489. weathermanwannabe
6:36 PM GMT on December 23, 2013
I have not seen any snow forecast in Florida from anywhere in the State (a rare event in any quantity) but the current "training" effect from the front draped from the Gulf waters crossing North Florida is combined with falling temps in the upper atmosphere. If the rain is still around over the next 24 hours, and conditions are just right all the way toward the surface, I am thinking some folks in North Florida or Southern/SE Georgia might see a light flurry or two over the next 24.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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