February Smashes Earth's All-Time Global Heat Record by a Jaw-Dropping Margin

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 7:46 PM GMT on March 13, 2016

On Saturday, NASA dropped a bombshell of a climate report. February 2016 has soared past all rivals as the warmest seasonally adjusted month in more than a century of global recordkeeping. NASA’s analysis showed that February ran 1.35°C (2.43°F) above the 1951-1980 global average for the month, as can be seen in the list of monthly anomalies going back to 1880. The previous record was set just last month, as January 2016 came in 1.14°C above the 1951-1980 average for the month. In other words, February has dispensed with this one-month-old record by a full 0.21°C (0.38°F)--an extraordinary margin to beat a monthly world temperature record by. Perhaps even more remarkable is that February 2016 crushed the previous February record--set in 1998 during the peak atmospheric influence of the 1997-98 “super” El Niño that’s comparable in strength to the current one--by a massive 0.47°C (0.85°F).


Figure 1. Monthly global surface temperatures (land and ocean) from NASA for the period 1880 to February 2016, expressed in departures from the 1951-1980 average. The red line shows the 12-month running average. Image credit: Stephan Okhuijsen, datagraver.com, used with permission.

An ominous milestone in our march toward an ever-warmer planet
Because there is so much land in the Northern Hemisphere, and since land temperatures rise and fall more sharply with the seasons than ocean temperatures, global readings tend to average about 4°C cooler in January and February than they do in July or August. Thus, February is not atop the pack in terms of absolute warmest global temperature: that record was set in July 2015. The real significance of the February record is in its departure from the seasonal norms that people, plants, animals, and the Earth system are accustomed to dealing with at a given time of year. Drawing from NASA’s graph of long-term temperature trends, if we add 0.2°C as a conservative estimate of the amount of human-produced warming that occurred between the late 1800s and 1951-1980, then the February result winds up at 1.55°C above average. If we use 0.4°C as a higher-end estimate, then February sits at 1.75°C above average. Either way, this result is a true shocker, and yet another reminder of the incessant long-term rise in global temperature resulting from human-produced greenhouse gases. Averaged on a yearly basis, global temperatures are now around 1.0°C beyond where they stood in the late 19th century, when industrialization was ramping up. Michael Mann (Pennsylvania State University) notes that the human-induced warming is even greater if you reach back to the very start of the Industrial Revolution. Making matters worse, even if we could somehow manage to slash emissions enough to stabilize concentrations of carbon dioxide at their current level, we are still committed to at least 0.5°C of additional atmospheric warming as heat stored in the ocean makes its way into the air, as recently emphasized by Jerry Meehl (National Center for Atmospheric Research). In short, we are now hurtling at a frightening pace toward the globally agreed maximum of 2.0°C warming over pre-industrial levels.

El Niño and La Niña are responsible for many of the one-year up-and-down spikes we see in global temperature. By spreading warm surface water across a large swath of the tropical Pacific, El Niño allows the global oceans to transfer heat more readily into the atmosphere. El Niño effects on global temperature typically peak several months after the highest temperatures occur in the Niño3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific. The weekly Niño3.4 anomalies peaked in mid-November 2015 at a record +3.1°C , so it’s possible that February 2016 will stand as the apex of the influence of the 2015-16 El Niño on global temperature, although the first half of March appears to be giving February a run for its money. We can expect the next several months to remain well above the long-term average, and it remains very possible (though not yet certain) that 2016 will top 2015 as the warmest year in global record-keeping.

Lower atmosphere also sets a record in February
Satellite-based estimates of temperature in the lowest few miles of the atmosphere also set an impressive global record in February. Calculations from the University of Alabama in Huntsville show that February’s reading in the lower atmosphere marked the largest monthly anomaly since the UAH dataset began in late 1978. UAH's Dr. Roy Spencer, who considers himself a climate change skeptic, told Capital Weather Gang earlier this month, “There has been warming. The question is how much warming there’s been and how does that compare to what’s expected and what’s predicted.” The satellite readings apply to temperatures miles above Earth’s surface, rather than what is experienced at the ground, and a variety of adjustments and bias corrections in recent years (including an important one just this month) have brought satellite-based readings closer to the surface-observed trends.


Figure 2. Anomalies (departures from average) in surface temperature across the globe for February 2016, in degrees Centigrade, as analyzed by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Image credit: NASA/GISS.

Arctic leads the way
Figure 2 shows a big factor in the February result: a superheated Arctic. As shown by the darkest-red splotches in the figure, large parts of Alaska, Canada, eastern Europe, and Russia, as well as much of the Arctic Ocean, ran more than 4.0°C (7.2°F) above average for the month. This unusual warmth helped drive Arctic sea ice to its lowest February extent on record in February 2016. The tremendous Arctic warmth was probably related to interactions among warm air streaming into the Arctic, warm water extending poleward from the far northeast Atlantic, and the record-low extent of Arctic sea ice. Ground Zero for this pattern was the Barents and Kara Seas, north of Scandinavia and western Russia, where sea ice extent was far below average in February. Typically, the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard--which includes the northernmost civilian settlements on Earth--is largely surrounded by ice from early winter into spring. This winter, the edge of the persistent ice has stayed mostly to the north of Svalbard, which has helped an absurd level of mildness to persist over the islands for months. Air temperatures at the Longyearbyen airport (latitude 78°N) have been close to 10°C (18°F) above average over the past three-plus months. This is the single most astounding season-long anomaly we’ve seen for any station anywhere on Earth. (If anyone can beat it, please let us know and we’ll add it here!) Update (March 14): It turns out in the winter of 2013-14, Svalbard was even more amazingly mild: the Dec-Jan-Feb average was -4.73°C, compared to the -5.12°C average from this past winter. According to Deke Arndt (NOAA/NCEI), a handful of high-latitude stations in Alaska, Canada, Kazakhstan, Norway, and Russia have racked up full-winter anomalies during past years in the range of 6°C to 8°C above the 1981-2010 average. At least some of these might be large enough to beat out the 2013-14 and 2015-16 Svalbard anomalies of around 10°C if these other readings were recalculated against the generally cooler 1961-1990 base period used by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.


Figure 3. Daily temperatures (in Celsius, °C) for the past year at the Longyearbyen Airport, Svalbard, Norway, located at latitude 78°N. The black line shows the seasonal average; blue and red traces show the day-to-day readings. The darker blue and red line shows the 30-day running average, which was 10.2°C (18.4°F) above normal in February. Thus far in March, the anomaly (not shown here) has been even larger, close to 12°C (22°F). Image credit: Norwegian Meteorological Institute.

February's heat had severe impacts
It has long been agreed upon in international climate negotiations that a 2°C warming of the Earth above modern pre-industrial levels represents a "dangerous" level of warming that the nations of the world should work diligently to avoid. The December 2015 Paris Climate Accord, signed by 195 nations, included language on this, and the Accord recommend that we should keep our planet from warming more than 1.5°C, if possible. Although the science of attributing extreme weather events to a warming climate is still evolving (more on this in an upcoming post), February 2016 gave us a number of extreme weather events that were made more probable by a warmer climate, giving us an excellent example of how a 2°C warming of the climate can potentially lead to dangerous impacts. And, as we have been repeatedly warned might likely be the case, these impacts came primarily in less developed nations--the ones with the least resources available to deal with dangerous climate change. According to the February 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, three nations suffered extreme weather disasters in February 2016 that cost at least 4% of their GDP--roughly the equivalent of what in the U.S. would be five simultaneous Hurricane Katrinas. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, these disasters set records for the all-time most expensive weather-related disaster in their nations' history. For comparison, nine nations had their most expensive weather-related natural disasters in history in all of 2015, and only one did so in 2014. Here are the nations that have set records in February 2016 for their most expensive weather-related natural disaster in history:


Vietnam has suffered $6.7 billion in damage from its 2016 drought, which has hit farmers especially hard in the crucial southern Mekong Delta. This cost is approximately 4% of Vietnam's GDP, and beats the $785 million cost (2009 USD) of Typhoon Ketsana of September 28, 2009 for most expensive disaster in their history. In this image, we see a boy holding his brother walking across a drought-hit rice field in Long Phu district, southern delta province of Soc Trang on March 2, 2016. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.


Zimbabwe has suffered $1.6 billion in damage from its 2016 drought. This is approximately 12% of their GDP, and beats the $200 million cost (2003 USD) of a February 2003 flood for most expensive disaster in their history. Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe on February 5, 2016 declared a 'state of disaster' in many rural areas hit by a severe drought, with more than a quarter of the population facing food shortages. This photo taken on February 7, 2016 shows the fast-drying catchment area of the Umzingwani dam in Matabeleland, Southwestern Zimbabwe. Image credit: Ziniyange Auntony/AFP/Getty Images.


Fiji suffered $470 million in damage from Category 5 Cyclone Winston's impact in February. This is approximately 10% of their GDP. The previous costliest disaster in Fiji was Tropical Cyclone Kina in January 1993, at $182 million (2016 USD) in damage. In this image, we see how Category 5 winds can completely flatten human-built structures: Fiji's Koro Island received a direct hit from Winston when the storm was at peak strength with 185 mph winds. Image credit: My Fijian Images and Jah Ray.

One other severe impact from February's record heat is the on-going global coral bleaching episode, just the third such event in recorded history (1998 and 2010 were the others.) NOAA's Coral Reef Watch has placed portions of Australia's Great Barrier Reef under their "Alert Level 1", meaning that widespread coral bleaching capable of causing coral death is likely to occur. Widespread but minor bleaching has already been reported on the reef, and the coming month will be critical for determining whether or not the reef will experience its third major mass bleaching event on record.


Figure 4. Annual mean carbon dioxide growth rates for Mauna Loa, Hawaii. In the graph, decadal averages of the growth rate are also plotted, as horizontal lines for 1960 through 1969, 1970 through 1979, and so on. The highest one-year growth in CO2 was in 2015, at 3.05 ppm. The El Niño year of 1998 was a close second. The estimated uncertainty in the Mauna Loa annual mean growth rate is 0.11 ppm/yr. Image credit: NOAA’s Greenhouse Gas Reference Network.

Last year saw Earth’s highest-ever increase in carbon dioxide
Despite efforts to slow down human emissions of carbon dioxide, 2015 saw the biggest yearly jump in global CO2 levels ever measured, said NOAA last week. The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide measured at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii jumped by 3.05 parts per million during 2015, the largest year-to-year increase since measurements began there in 1958. In another first, 2015 was the fourth consecutive year that CO2 concentrations grew more than 2 ppm, said Pieter Tans, lead scientist of NOAA's Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network. “Carbon dioxide levels are increasing faster than they have in hundreds of thousands of years,” Tans said. “It’s explosive compared to natural processes.” The last time the Earth experienced such a sustained CO2 increase was between 17,000 and 11,000 years ago, when CO2 levels increased by 80 ppm. Today’s rate of increase is 200 times faster, said Tans. In February 2016, the average global atmospheric CO2 level stood at 402.59 ppm. Prior to 1800, atmospheric CO2 averaged about 280 ppm.

The big jump in CO2 in 2015 is partially due to the current El Niño weather pattern, as forests, plant life and other terrestrial systems responded to changes in weather, precipitation and drought. In particular, El Niño-driven drought and massive wildfires in Indonesia were a huge source of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2015. The largest previous global increase in CO2 levels occurred in 1998, which was also a strong El Niño year. However, continued high emissions from human-caused burning of fossil fuels are driving the underlying growth rate. We are now approaching the annual peak in global CO2 levels that occurs during northern spring, after which the value will dip by several ppm. It is quite possible that the annual minimum in late 2016 will for the first time fail to get below 400 ppm, as predicted by Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) last October. To track CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa and global CO2 concentrations, visit NOAA’s Greenhouse Gas Reference Network and the Keeling Curve website (Scripps).

For more on Saturday’s bombshell report, check out the coverage from Andrew Freedman (Mashable), Eric Holthaus (Slate), and Tom Yulsman (Scientific American/ImaGeo). We’ll have a follow-up post later this week on NOAA’s global climate report for February and for the Dec-Feb period, along with a roundup of all-time records set in February at major stations around the world. Our next post will be up by Tuesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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451. scotthermansen2
11:08 PM GMT on March 22, 2016
what good is co2 if the plants have no water?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
450. Longjohn119
2:15 AM GMT on March 17, 2016
Quoting 446. deanod:

Yes, the warming of the planet is a calamity on many levels. However, though I have not read every last article and comment on this blog, nowhere do I see mention of the enormous benefit of CO2 increase: the increase in plant growth. Faster growing and healthier plants are very important in 3rd world countries where there is so much malnutrition and even starvation and increasing crop yields elsewhere will make for cheaper foods everywhere.


Where ever did you get the idea that faster growing plants are healthier?

Do you consider a faster growing but full of steroids chickens to be healthier... for us or them?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
449. Longjohn119
2:11 AM GMT on March 17, 2016
Quoting 448. cRRKampen:


That's because this benefit doesn't exist.



Oh it does exist ..... but the 10% benefit gets wiped out and then some by the 90% that's a disadvantage ,,,,,

Also plants grown in a higher CO2 climate do grow faster but their cellular structure is weaker and the propensity to attacks from insects and diseases goes up drastically
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
448. cRRKampen
4:01 PM GMT on March 16, 2016
Quoting 447. deanod:

Yes, global warming is a coming calamity on many levels. But nowhere on this blog do i see (though I havent viewed every last post or comment) an important BENEFIT of greatly increased CO2 levels: the increase in plant growth. Faster growing and helthier crops in third world countries could mean the difference between life and death in many 3rd world regions, and in the rest of the world food will be cheaper.

That's because this benefit doesn't exist.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
447. deanod
6:49 AM GMT on March 16, 2016
Yes, global warming is a coming calamity on many levels. But nowhere on this blog do i see (though I havent viewed every last post or comment) an important BENEFIT of greatly increased CO2 levels: the increase in plant growth. Faster growing and helthier crops in third world countries could mean the difference between life and death in many 3rd world regions, and in the rest of the world food will be cheaper.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
445. deanod
6:40 AM GMT on March 16, 2016
Yes, the warming of the planet is a calamity on many levels. However, though I have not read every last article and comment on this blog, nowhere do I see mention of the enormous benefit of CO2 increase: the increase in plant growth. Faster growing and healthier plants are very important in 3rd world countries where there is so much malnutrition and even starvation and increasing crop yields elsewhere will make for cheaper foods everywhere.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
444. MahFL
5:09 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 426. weathermanwannabe:



I am worried for the regular people who have lived there for generations..............................


They'll be working for the millionaires....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
443. Qazulight
4:47 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 434. LuckySD:

Did someone spike the coffee yesterday and today? Been some interesting reading catching up... Sioux Falls is getting back to our normal early spring like temps after a couple of just gorgeous days. Friday hit 75 and Saturday I was able to take the winter drumline I help teach outside to rehearse. Alas, it was not meant to last.




I don't know, I had to take the warm blanket off the bed. I am glad it is cooling back down. Not looking forward to summer at all. I think I hear Duluth calling.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
442. NativeSun
4:38 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 403. ricderr:




lunch is served......


The strong SOI rise will be due to all the negatives from last month that are coming off the board, but the daily SOI is positive now, and should stay that way for a while.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
441. alaskawx
4:22 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Hi, the Svalbard anomaly, while truly remarkable, is not unprecedented.   NOAA's GHCN data set has a number of other examples that exceeded a +10C anomaly for Dec-Feb.

Here's one (since you asked): Ilirnej, Russia, in the winter of 1949-1950.  This is a long-term reporting site in eastern Siberia, part of the Global Climate Observing System network.   The chart below shows the daily mean temperatures that winter, compared to the 1981-2010 normal (not the contemporary normal).   The Dec-Feb mean temperature was 12.5C above the modern normal.










Here's a reanalysis map of 2m temperature, showing the major warm anomaly in the same area (although the reanalysis didn't quite capture the amplitude).



- Richard James, PhD
- Prescient Weather Ltd
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
440. oldmickey
4:10 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 56. Dakster:



Time to crank up the AC?

House gets hot during the day up here, I have the heat set to 70F but the inside gets up to 74F on its own. It's great for the gas bill as it takes a long time at night before the heat kicks on.
Lordy, I keep the thermostat at 66 and 60 this time of year.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
439. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:01 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
438. 757surfer
3:49 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
I know I don't post much but I was wondering did anyone ever hear from Sar?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
437. cRRKampen
3:34 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 382. Sfloridacat5:



[..]Florida is actually one of the fastest growing areas of the country.

The Villages, Fla., Nation's Fastest-Growing Metro Area for Second Year in a Row

Florida was home to the nation's fastest growing metro area from 2013 to 2014, according to new U.S. Census Bureau metropolitan statistical area, micropolitan statistical area and county population estimates released today.

The Villages, located to the west of the Orlando metro area, grew by 5.4 percent between July 1, 2013, and July 1, 2014, to reach a population of about 114,000. State population estimates released in December revealed that Florida had become the nation's third most populous state. Today's estimates show Florida's growth to reach this milestone was propelled by numerous metro areas and counties within the state.



Well ha, ha. Just ha, ha. Enter Patricia 2.0 ...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
436. vis0
3:33 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Are Grothar & STS (fringe of moisture, but...)ready?

 

( In case anyone asks ready for what?, ...waddaya think...simon sez?  ...we're (mostly) talking da wedder!

 

ready...

 

simon sez get an umbrella

simon sez  get half of pedlyCA sandbag
si mon soo get the snow shoes .. gotta ya.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
435. cRRKampen
3:30 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Again I see people who see the direness of human future while not willing to think about the possibility of extinction.
Each of them are probably forgetting the fact that we are in the age of the Ape with the Nukes. That +8° C might just crazy some guys at the buttons (thru the rest of the craze the world will be in). The Samson Option is quite real.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
434. LuckySD
3:26 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Did someone spike the coffee yesterday and today? Been some interesting reading catching up... Sioux Falls is getting back to our normal early spring like temps after a couple of just gorgeous days. Friday hit 75 and Saturday I was able to take the winter drumline I help teach outside to rehearse. Alas, it was not meant to last.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
433. Tazmanian
3:10 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Am vary excited today today is a major turning point on how the rest of the election season will play out for are contenders can't wait for tonight and see the final results I been waiting weeks for today and now here we are am vary excited about tonight
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
432. Xyrus2000
3:02 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 417. Wacahootaman:

...Buy water front property on the Arctic Ocean. Use it for a coconut and banana tree plantation. Make a silk purse from a sows ear.


Yeah, because coconuts and bananas could grow just fine in the Arctic if it wasn't so damn cold. /sarcasm
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
430. Loduck
2:56 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 348. barbamz:

Good morning abroad, and good luck where ever primaries take place today ;-)

Climate change deal: 'Zero carbon' laws promised by government
By Roger Harrabin BBC environment analyst, BBC, 1 hour ago
Climate laws will be tightened to cut carbon emissions effectively to zero, the government has said.
Under current law, emissions must be cut of by 80% by 2050 - but ministers have said this does not go far enough.
Following the climate deal in Paris, it is clear the UK must not increase CO2 at all because the warming threat is so severe, they added.
No details of the law change have been given - and critics said the UK was failing to meet even current targets. ...


New law threatens wind power in Poland
DW English, March 10, 2016
The Polish government plans to unveil new legislation that could swing the country's energy mix even more towards coal and favor biomass energy production over the nascent wind power industry. ...

A Global View of Methane
NASA Earth Observatory, March 15, 2016
For a chemical compound that shows up nearly everywhere on the planet, methane still surprises us. It is one of the most potent greenhouse gases, and yet the reasons for why and where it shows up are often a mystery. What we know for sure is that a lot more methane (CH4) has made its way into the atmosphere since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Less understood is why the ebb and flow of this gas has changed in recent decades. ...
More see link above.



Theory in respect to the Bermuda Triangle isn't exactly new, but maybe the findings off the coast of Norway are?
Have Norway scientists solved Bermuda Triangle mystery?
The Local (Norway), Published: 14 Mar 2016 13:19 GMT 01:00
... Researchers at the Arctic University of Norway believe that underwater bubble explosions could be behind the mystery that has confounded scientists for years.
The researchers told the Sunday Times that large craters on the ocean floor off the coast of Norway may have been created by underwater methane explosions, one of the many theories that has been presented for the disappearance of ships within the Bermuda Triangle.
"Multiple giant craters exist on the sea floor in an area in the west-central Barents sea... and are probably a cause of enormous blowouts of gas," the researchers told the Sunday Times. "The crater area is likely to represent one of the largest hotspots for shallow marine methane release in the Arctic."
These craters are nearly a kilometre wide and some 50 metres deep and researchers think they may have been created by the accumulation of oil and gas leaks under the sea floor that eventually burst. Details of their theory will be presented next month at the annual gathering of the European Geosciences Union, where scientists will discuss whether these underwater explosions could be strong enough to sink ships. ...


but what about the planes?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
428. Xyrus2000
2:50 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 371. science101:


I think we should be careful about claims that even a severe rise in global temperatures of 8C would render humans extinct as a species.  Since humans, even without modern technology, populated the earth from the Arctic to the tropics, regions which differ by more than 8C, there is no reason to believe that such a rise would end the existence of the species.


Indirectly a rise of that much could spell the end of humanity. At the minimum, it would cause a rather drastic decrease in human population.

Humans have biological limits. A global increase of 8C would render some of the most populated areas in the world uninhabitable. Southern India, for example, would regularly exceed human biological tolerance for heat during the summer. Without air conditioning, millions or more would die from heat.

In fact, a rise of that much would render global tropical regions uninhabitable by humans. Example, the average nighttime temperature in the Bahamas at night in the summer is around is 25C. An increase of 8C puts that at 33C (about 92F), and that's not including the effects of humidity. Unless you have access to electricity and technology, you're not lasting long in those conditions.

And that's just the effects on humans. Agriculture in those regions would be all but destroyed. Coffee, sugar, etc. all have major production areas within these regions, and crops do not have tolerances that would allow them to survive such conditions. Even agricultural regions not in the dead zone would have severe issues, assuming regional climates for those areas were even conducive to the sustainability of arable land.

Now lets add sea level rise on top of that for good measure.

Billions of people forced to migrate. Global economic turmoil. Global famine. Dwindling resources. That's a recipe for wars and societal collapse. We've already seen what kind of lovely toys the war boys have developed over the past 100 years. What kinds of new toys would we see 100 years from now? Nanites? Designed virii and bacteria? Anti-matter weapons? Maybe someone will just strap on some rockets to a near-earth asteroid as the ultimate MAD solution?

An 8C rise wouldn't directly result in our extinction, but it could very well indirectly lead to our extinction.

With milder winters up north, that might not be so bad anyway


Instead of dying due to exposure, you can starve to death. :P

At any rate, an 8C rise by next century is extremely unlikely.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
427. Llamaluvr
2:43 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 420. Tazmanian:

I most be a sleep or is Scott now finally starting too see that we could now see a LA Nino or neutral going in too hurricane season and not other strong EL Nino some one please hit me I most be dreaming wake me up
Good morning Taz !!!!!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
426. weathermanwannabe
2:37 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 424. MahFL:



If they can afford million dollar condo's they won't be worried about a supply of water.


I am worried for the regular people who have lived there for generations..............................
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
425. barbamz
2:34 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 416. tampabaymatt:



Am I only seeing a portion of the article? The headline of the article asks why development is still occurring along the coasts, but then offers no take on why development is happening.

I've provided the link to the whole article in the blue headline, as always.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
424. MahFL
2:32 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 419. weathermanwannabe:

They are going to be in for a rude awakening when the fresh water for the population gets too salt contaminated to drink as sea levels rise (which is already happening).


If they can afford million dollar condo's they won't be worried about a supply of water.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
423. MahFL
2:29 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 401. weathermanwannabe:

A steady decline in the current El Nino is bad news for the upcoming tornado season in the US and potentially bad news downstream for the Caribbean and US during the Atlantic hurricane season ...


Or good news depending on your point of view. Also at the end of the day remember Mother Nature will do what she wants.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
422. RobertWC
2:26 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Louisiana's vanishing island: the climate change 'refugees' resettling for $52m

Isle de Jean Charles has lost 98% of its land and most of its population to rising sea levels – but as remaining residents consider relocation, what happens next is a test case to address resettlement needs

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
421. RobertWC
2:19 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Peter Hannam at the Sidney Morning Herald quotes this Masters and Henson post at length as well , in the text there is this nugget :

Unusual warmth in waters off northern Australia also prompted an alert by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Authority about the risk of widespread coral bleaching.

'True shocker': February spike in global temperatures stuns scientists

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
420. Tazmanian
2:17 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
I most be a sleep or is Scott now finally starting too see that we could now see a LA Nino or neutral going in too hurricane season and not other strong EL Nino some one please hit me I most be dreaming wake me up
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
419. weathermanwannabe
2:16 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
I left South Florida in 2001 (my parents still there) and every time I visit them and friends there, there are more condos and office buildings going up on the coastal areas. The irony is that much of the regular population is being priced out of these markets and a large portion of the people living-buying these places are foreign investors sheltering money (and owning a second vacation residence) from Latin America, Europe, and the former-Soviet Union.............Bad investment in the longer term from a climate change perspective but the new tax base and revenue from developers is too juicy for cities like Miami and Fort Lauderdale to actually take any real action to curb coastal development................They are going to be in for a rude awakening when the fresh water for the population gets too salt contaminated to drink as sea levels rise (which is already happening).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
418. Cyclone2016
2:11 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
I have been thinking about this a lot lately. What have we not seen since 2012? An Atlantic Hurricane in the Caribbean, that heat has been steadily building up to await another hurricane to pass through their. I believe if the conditions are right this year we could see a monster form in the Caribbean as there is so much heat content in the Caribbean there already that has not been tapped in a long while.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
417. Wacahootaman
2:11 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
QUOTE " I know many on this blog live in Florida, but almost all of your families migrated there fairly recently from further north. Might be time to think about a reverse migration. With milder winters up north, that might not be so bad anyway..."

Buy water front property on the Arctic Ocean. Use it for a coconut and banana tree plantation. Make a silk purse from a sows ear.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
416. tampabaymatt
2:10 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 414. barbamz:


Developers don't get it: climate change means we need to retreat from the coast
It is preposterous to build in areas that are bound to flood. So why are real estate companies still doing it?
The Guardian, Monday 14 March 2016 16.12 GMT
...The problem is particularly severe along our 3,000-mile low-lying sandy barrier island coast extending, with a few breaks, all the way from the South Shore of Long Island to the Mexican border. Along this long barrier island coast, Florida has the longest and most heavily developed shoreline.
In Miami, a city perilously perched atop a very porous limestone, two multibillion-dollar construction projects are under way, despite the fact that parts of the city routinely flood during high tides and that widespread flooding by the rising sea in a few decades is a virtual certainty. No sea walls, levees or dikes can stop the rising waters from flowing through the underlying spongy limestone and into the city. Miami is ultimately doomed.
A few miles to the north, Fort Lauderdale is undergoing equally intense development and population growth. This city has more beachfront high-rise buildings per mile than any other American beach. According to Katherine Bagley of Inside Climate news “nearly 5,000 apartments or condos are or soon will be under construction” in the city, which already faces routine nuisance flooding. The city’s many canals make Fort Lauderdale all the more vulnerable to rising seas. In light of the wet future in store for the city, increased density is insane.
On the other side of the Florida peninsula along the Gulf of Mexico, a Fort Myers Beach developer proposes to build a massive project to include four beachfront hotels, nine restaurants and a 1,500-car parking structure; all to be protected with a soon-to-be-constructed half-mile-long seawall. If you need to build a seawall to protect your construction project, you should not be building at that site. Remember – seawalls destroy beaches....

Whole article see link above.


Am I only seeing a portion of the article? The headline of the article asks why development is still occurring along the coasts, but then offers no take on why development is happening.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
415. tiggerhurricanes2001
2:04 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Here are some examples of a favorable Atlantic Tripole. Will we get it this year though?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
414. barbamz
2:03 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 396. Neapolitan:

... Again: We. Are. In. Deep. Trouble.

Developers don't get it: climate change means we need to retreat from the coast
It is preposterous to build in areas that are bound to flood. So why are real estate companies still doing it?
The Guardian, Monday 14 March 2016 16.12 GMT
...The problem is particularly severe along our 3,000-mile low-lying sandy barrier island coast extending, with a few breaks, all the way from the South Shore of Long Island to the Mexican border. Along this long barrier island coast, Florida has the longest and most heavily developed shoreline.
In Miami, a city perilously perched atop a very porous limestone, two multibillion-dollar construction projects are under way, despite the fact that parts of the city routinely flood during high tides and that widespread flooding by the rising sea in a few decades is a virtual certainty. No sea walls, levees or dikes can stop the rising waters from flowing through the underlying spongy limestone and into the city. Miami is ultimately doomed.
A few miles to the north, Fort Lauderdale is undergoing equally intense development and population growth. This city has more beachfront high-rise buildings per mile than any other American beach. According to Katherine Bagley of Inside Climate news - nearly 5,000 apartments or condos are or soon will be under construction - in the city, which already faces routine nuisance flooding. The city's many canals make Fort Lauderdale all the more vulnerable to rising seas. In light of the wet future in store for the city, increased density is insane.
On the other side of the Florida peninsula along the Gulf of Mexico, a Fort Myers Beach developer proposes to build a massive project to include four beachfront hotels, nine restaurants and a 1,500-car parking structure; all to be protected with a soon-to-be-constructed half-mile-long seawall. If you need to build a seawall to protect your construction project, you should not be building at that site. Remember - seawalls destroy beaches....

Whole article see link above.

Louisiana's vanishing island: the climate 'refugees' resettling for $52m
Isle de Jean Charles has lost 98% of its land and most of its population to rising sea levels - but as remaining residents consider relocation, what happens next is a test case to address resettlement needs
The Guardian, Tuesday 15 March 2016 12.30 GMT
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
413. weathermanwannabe
2:02 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Part of the current cooling in the central-Atlantic is due to normal Spring water temps and the high SAL levels (normal for this time of the year) if you juxtapose this current plume over some of the cooler waters between Africa and the Caribbean at the moment; as SAL does its usual wax and wane between now and August, the SST's will continue to slowly rise:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
412. Llamaluvr
2:01 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 398. StormTrackerScott:



Huge SOI rise over the next week will really take the meat off this El-Nino some. However another crash appears to coming by the end of March along with a WWB. Question then becomes what happens after that. I favor neutral at this point which is blend of all the models.
This seems like a sound, reasonable prediction. Thanks for not getting involved in the drama. As always, we can count on you to be the voice of reason!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
411. tiggerhurricanes2001
1:59 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 409. weathermanwannabe:

408. tiggerhurricanes2001
9:53 AM EDT on March 15, 2016
Great points...............I wish I had more time to study this stuff more and read more scientific papers...........Will have to wait on retirement for that................. :)



😄😄 I hope to go into further study on the Atlantic Tripole, when I go to college, once I finish high school.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
410. tiggerhurricanes2001
1:56 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 402. ricderr:



NOOOOOOO....the daily SOI is not the SOI but a component that makes up the SOI...just because there are those that look for grandiosity by quoting the daily to help their agenda.....still doesn't make it important...in fact...if you've read the update by the Aussie mets issued today...they even tell you to look at the 90 day SOI this time of year due to storm caused fluctuations

Fluctuations of the SOI during Australia's northern wet season (October-April) are not unusual as the passage of tropical systems near Darwin and Tahiti affects atmospheric pressure. During this period, the SOI should be used cautiously; 90-day values can provide more reliable guidance. The current 90-day SOI is −14.8.




Thanks. Well in general, the SOI is rising.
Quoting 398. StormTrackerScott:



Huge SOI rise over the next week will really take the meat off this El-Nino some. However another crash appears to coming by the end of March along with a WWB. Question then becomes what happens after that. I favor neutral at this point which is blend of all the models.

Thanks. Well i believe on Michael Ventrice Twitter a month or so back, he mentioned something about an el nino self destruct, and Interseasonal Forcing come Mid March.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
409. weathermanwannabe
1:56 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
408. tiggerhurricanes2001
9:53 AM EDT on March 15, 2016

Great points...............I wish I had more time to study this stuff more and read more scientific papers...........Will have to wait on retirement for that................. :)

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
408. tiggerhurricanes2001
1:53 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 401. weathermanwannabe:

A steady decline in the current El Nino is bad news for the upcoming tornado season in the US and potentially bad news downstream for the Caribbean and US during the Atlantic hurricane season given the very warm SST's across the board already across a large segment of the MDR.  Too early to speculate as to enso neutral or La Nina for the peak period, or as to the actual numbers, but the warm waters and a low shear window has the potential to produce several majors this year...............Have to see how the A-B high sets up in July.





But Weather Wannabe, will we get the Atlantic Tripole. The sandwich combination of warm water, cold, then warm. If the subtropical Atlantic has warmer SST's than the MDR, all of the activity Will be focused there instead of the MDR. I lean things weather related everyday, and i learned this from levi Cowan yesterday. This was the case in 2013. Gulf of Guinea is near average, and the AEW are already robust, considering it's only MARCH.
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407. weathermanwannabe
1:48 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Another great news blog as to Atlantic storm numbers during a cool period from ship logs that has been confirmed by tree ring analysis; amazing piece of research to tie the two together:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/sifter/shipwreck-l ogs-show-calm-17th-century-atlantic-hurricanes


Hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean dropped by 75% during a cool period in the late 1600s, TheWashington Post reports. Researchers already knew that cooler weather means less intense hurricanes, because the storms draw their strength from warm water. To see whether this showed up in the historical record, researchers looked at shipwreck logs from the Caribbean over a period of about 300 years—and found a decrease in shipwrecks in the cooler era known as the “Maunder Minimum,” lasting from 1645 to 1715, they report this week in theProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The evidence was echoed in the growth rings of pine trees in the Florida Keys; years with fewer shipwrecks also showed less stunted growth caused by the storms. As the climate warms, scientists say the strength of these storms is likely to increase, too—but hopefully, we can at least avoid the shipwrecks! 
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406. pipelines
1:44 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 371. science101:


I think we should be careful about claims that even a severe rise in global temperatures of 8C would render humans extinct as a species.  Since humans, even without modern technology, populated the earth from the Arctic to the tropics, regions which differ by more than 8C, there is no reason to believe that such a rise would end the existence of the species. 

It would, very likely, make a population of 7, 8 or 10 billion unsustainable and would likely result in the present mode of life and civilization collapsing, but I see no reason Homo sapiens, after abandoning many of today's coastal regions couldn't continue to survive.  Chicago, Moscow, the original home of the species in the East African highlands should all still be habitable.  Of course, a nuclear war, which could be triggered by such a collapse, could change that picture, but that wouldn't be inevitable.

Realistically, I don't see how we avoid a rise of at least 2C and maybe quite a bit more, so we need  to think very hard about what adaptations need to be made.  I know many on this blog live in Florida, but almost all of your families migrated there fairly recently from further north.  Might be time to think about a reverse migration.  With milder winters up north, that might not be so bad anyway...



You're looking at it wrong. Humans are the most adaptable species the world has ever seen, we can survive in most climates. I repeat, we're the most adaptable species, how about all other life forms on earth? We can shrug off an 8C increase, many others can't. Humans have huge egos and we think we are completely self sufficient, but we aren't, we depend on the earth's natural balance to survive. Would this cause humans to go extinct completely? Doubtful, but a huge die off would be inevitable and I think we can all agree that that is still an outcome we should probably try to prevent.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
405. CaribBoy
1:43 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 388. StormTrackerScott:



Latest Euro came out and it shows a strong La-Nina this Summer.



El nino not likely to persist?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
404. LargoFl
1:41 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 396. Neapolitan:

Let's suppose that, conservatively, 30 million Americans are forced to leave parts of Florida and other Gulf Coast states, along with parts of the Desert Southwest that will have become simply too hot and/or dry to remain viable. Where will these millions go? How will they pay for relocation since they will have lost the investments in their previous properties that were not able to be sold? Where will they work? Where will the food to feed them be grown? Who will pay for the hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure--highways, schools, hospitals, etc.--needed to support the recently relocated? How will northern states respond to a huge influx of the forcibly exiled?

Those questions are many. But America, as you say, can probably handle this. But what then about other nations, many lacking the resources we have? What can of societal chaos will ensue when 100 million or more have to leave coastal India and Indonesia? Japan? Korea? Thailand? Australia? Europe?

We are in deep trouble. Not homo sapiens as a species; our DNA will be kicking around the planet for many milennia to come. But our carefully crafted but structurally fragile society can't withstand the type of earthquake that's coming because of our own stupidity, and when that quake rolls in and our rickety society crumbles and then collapses in on itself, that's when the real, er, fun begins.

Again: We. Are. In. Deep. Trouble.
yes I sure agree, IF this serious sea level rise does in fact occur..im so glad I'm old and wont see it..the America we know today wont be as we Know it today..oh man the hardships,and yes the fighting and anger...and quite possibly..a revolt by the people..many Millions of people moving inland..and people In there saying no not on My property etc...glad I wont be around to see this.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
403. ricderr
1:33 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 398. StormTrackerScott:



Huge SOI rise over the next week will really take the meat off this El-Nino some. However another crash appears to coming by the end of March along with a WWB. Question then becomes what happens after that. I favor neutral at this point which is blend of all the models.



lunch is served......

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
402. ricderr
1:30 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
Quoting 395. tiggerhurricanes2001:


13 Mar 2016 1012.88 1007.75 4.80 -22.28 -15.26
14 Mar 2016 1012.76 1007.20 6.90 -21.57 -15.09
15 Mar 2016 1013.16 1005.40 17.40 -20.35 -14.77
Hi Scott. Very Interesting Model Spread. Question,is the daily SOI index really important, should i be following it? Latest value is 17.40 for March 15th, up from 6.90.



NOOOOOOO....the daily SOI is not the SOI but a component that makes up the SOI...just because there are those that look for grandiosity by quoting the daily to help their agenda.....still doesn't make it important...in fact...if you've read the update by the Aussie mets issued today...they even tell you to look at the 90 day SOI this time of year due to storm caused fluctuations

Fluctuations of the SOI during Australia's northern wet season (October-April) are not unusual as the passage of tropical systems near Darwin and Tahiti affects atmospheric pressure. During this period, the SOI should be used cautiously; 90-day values can provide more reliable guidance. The current 90-day SOI is −14.8.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
401. weathermanwannabe
1:29 PM GMT on March 15, 2016
A steady decline in the current El Nino is bad news for the upcoming tornado season in the US and potentially bad news downstream for the Caribbean and US during the Atlantic hurricane season given the very warm SST's across the board already across a large segment of the MDR.  Too early to speculate as to enso neutral or La Nina for the peak period, or as to the actual numbers, but the warm waters and a low shear window has the potential to produce several majors this year...............Have to see how the A-B high sets up in July.



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