El Niño’s Role in Deadly Chennai Rains; Progress in Paris Climate Talks

By: Bob Henson , 4:02 PM GMT on December 07, 2015

Conditions in far southeast India are slowly improving after five weeks of frequent torrential rain that has led to more than 250 deaths. A region of low pressure positioned near Sri Lanka during much of the period channeled moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the record-warm eastern Indian Ocean toward the region. Much of the suffering has been in Chennai, an urban area of more than 9 million people that ranks as the largest in South India and among the world’s 40 largest metro areas. Parts of Chennai have spent days inundated by as much as eight feet of polluted water, with widespread power outages exacerbating the crisis. At least 18 patients died in a Chennai intensive-care unit after backup power to ventilators was knocked out. Last month Chennai recorded 1218.6 mm (47.98”) of rain, the highest observed for any November in more than 100 years of recordkeeping. Then, on December 1-2, a total of 345 mm (13.58”) fell in 24 hours, which smashed the city’s all-time 24-hour record rainfall of 261.6 mm on December 10, 1901. Estimated losses in the region have already topped $2 billion US.


Figure 1. People wade through a flooded street in Chennai, in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, on Wednesday, December 2, 2015. Image credit: AP.

Along with the heavy rains, the Indian Express cited infrastructure issues as a key part of the disaster: “While officials at the India Meteorological Department have said the exceptionally strong El Niño, along with a rare ‘coincidence of various factors’, has resulted in the heavy rain, there’s no denying that Chennai has failed in maintaining an effective storm water drainage system.” At Slate, Eric Holthaus reviewed how fast-growing industrialization made matters worse in Chennai: “For a city built on a floodplain, development has essentially gone unchecked: Critical infrastructure--like the airport, automobile manufacturing plants, and IT centers as well as countless houses--has been built over streams and marshes, and plastic bags clog drainage networks.”

Holthaus also noted the well-established relationship between warming global temperatures and the intensification of short-term rainfall events, which has been observed in many parts of the globe. This effect appears especially strong in the tropics, according to a study published earlier this year in the journal Current Climate Change Reports by Paul O’Gorman (Massachusetts Institute of Technology).


Figure 2. Chennai’s airport was closed for four days last week, with some 4000 people and dozens of aircraft stranded. At one point, all runways were under water. This photo is from Thursday, December 2, 2015. Image credit: Atul Yadav/ Press Trust of India via AP.

El Niño’s contrasting effects on the Indian monsoon
Cyclic, large-scale oceanic and atmospheric features--including El Niño--helped set the stage for the South India disaster. El Niño has a dual effect on monsoonal rains across India, hinging on the two phases of the monsoon itself. By far the biggest player in India’s climate is the summer, or southwest, monsoon, in which moist air sweeps across the nation from southwest to northeast during the late spring and summer. The phenomenon’s alter ego is the winter, or northeast, monsoon, in which northeast winds push back across the nation during autumn and winter. For most of the nation, the northeast monsoon has a drying effect, since the winds are bringing cool, dry air from interior Asia. But as the northeasterlies pass over the Bay of Bengal during autumn, they pick up moisture that is often deposited across far southeast India. Chennai typically receives more than half its moisture this way, with rainfall averaging around 11” in October, 16” in November, and 7” in December. (Chennai’s annual average is around 55”).

El Niño tends to reduce rainfall during the southwest monsoon, as was the case this year, but it also raises the odds of heavy rainfall during the northeast monsoon. The latter effect doesn’t get as much attention, in part because the southwest monsoon is the one that affects the bulk of India. On a global scale, the northeast-monsoon effect in India is small enough that it often gets omitted from maps showing how El Niño affects regional climate. However, it still affects a huge number of people: the population of Tamil Nadu state alone (where the northeast monsoon is the dominant one) is 72 million. Moreover, year-to-year variability is higher for India’s northeast monsoon than it is for the southwest monsoon.

Another player: the Indian Ocean Dipole
Another factor lined up this autumn for a strong northeast monsoon is the Indian Ocean Dipole. During the positive phase of the IOD, warmer-than-average waters extend across the central and western tropical Indian Ocean, with cooler-than-average waters toward the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. A 2004 study by R.H. Kripalani and Pankaj Kumar (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) was one of the first to relate the Indian Ocean Dipole to the strength of the northeast monsoon. It found that a positive IOD was associated with heavier northeast monsoonal rains in South India.


Figure 3. State of the Indian Ocean Dipole, 1982 - present. Crosshatches show monthly readings; the red and blue graph is a three-month running average. Image credit: NOAA Ocean Observations Panel for Climate

The IOD is currently in a strongly positive mode (see Figure 3). Based on NOAA data, the three-month running average this autumn has been in the +0.8°C to +1.0°C range, which ranks among the top five positive IOD events in the last 30 years. So between the IOD and El Niño, two major factors have been in place for unusually heavy rains in and near Chennai this autumn. India’s seasonal forecasters were on top of this risk. In its northeast monsoon outlook issued on October 16, the India Meteorological Department gave 88% odds for a wetter-than-normal monsoon over the South India peninsula, with 90% odds for Tamil Nadu, the state where Chennai is located.

In South Florida, a December deluge
South Florida--another place where El Niño tends to boost cool-season rainfall—has slogged through some of its heaviest December rains on record over the last several days. Miami Executive Airport picked up 8.92” in 24 hours, with 10.11” observed at The Hammocks. For the first six days of the month, Miami International Airport received 8.48”. With more than three weeks to go, this total already beats any December in 104 years of official Miami recordkeeping, with just two exceptions: 12.08” in 1905 and 9.03” in 1929. The first six days of December were wetter than any other week in Miami’s weather history during meteorological winter (December through February), as noted by NHC’s Eric Blake. Although the heaviest rains from Thursday through Saturday targeted the Miami area, South Florida as a whole averaged more than 2”, according to the South Florida Water Management District.


Figure 4. Demonstrators participate in a climate march on Sunday, December 6, 2015 in the coastal city of Oostende, Belgium. Image credit: Nicolas Maeterlinck/AFP/Getty Images.

Draft climate agreement hammered out in Paris
The first half of the two-week UN climate summit in Paris ended on a relatively high note, with a draft agreement delivered on time. The agreement is still peppered with hundreds of bracketed words and phrases, indicating fine and not-so-fine points that need to be worked out over the next week.


Figure 5. Mayors from cities around the world convene at the Paris city hall on Friday, December 04, 2015, for an event called Cities for Climate. Roughly a thousand mayors gathered to coordinate their own efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions. The mayors signed an agreement to work toward 100% renewable energy in their cities, or an 80% reduction in greenhouse gases, by 2050. Image credit: Thierry Chesnot/Getty Images.

This week the negotiation process shifts from diplomats to high-level government ministers from each UN member. These ministers will sign off on the final agreement, including not only the stipulated terms but which ones (if any) are considered legally binding. The latter point is heavily influenced by the United States, since the U.S. Congress has already made it clear it will not approve any legally binding agreement. More likely to emerge is some type of requirement for transparency and regular progress reports from each nation, which would employ international peer pressure rather than legal muscle. One climate policy expert interviewed by AP likened this to playing a soccer game without a referee: “Everything happens in the open in the stadium….So if someone fouls another player, even if he doesn't get a red card, he will be booed by the audience.” Another key aspect to be determined is whether the final draft will refer to a goal of keeping global temperature at no more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, a far more challenging goal than even the oft-cited 2.0°C goal. As the draft global agreement evolves, a group of 11 legal experts (including two representatives from each UN region, plus one representative from small-island developing states) will be scrutinizing it for legal and linguistic clarity and consistency.

We’ll have more details on the Paris meeting later this week as negotiations proceed. I will be appearing each night this week on the Weather Channel’s Weather Underground program (#WUTV) to discuss the happenings in Paris. These segments will air at 6:40 pm EST on most if not all nights. A UN website includes more background on how this week’s negotiations will unfold. Many of the proceedings can be viewed on TV only within the convention center (and in some cases, not even there). If you’re interested in the step-by-step evolution of the agreement, complete with sometimes snarky context, check out this annotated Google Doc, which was updated frequently last week by a pair of college students from New Zealand who will be on site for the duration.

We’ll have our next post by Wednesday at the latest. WU blogger Steve Gregory has a new post covering the "warm wave" spreading over much of eastern North America over the next week, plus what may follow later in the month.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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407. jvlb
2:10 PM GMT on December 10, 2015
I was expecting more coverage of the COP21 on WUTV either from Dr Masters or Mr Henson. I understand wunderground has a delegation at the conference. I saw the coverage of the Senate committee on Science, etc. with Mike Bettis last evening. Perhaps my timing is poor? I like the show but usually can't catch the entire show.
joe verreau, KMIDURAN3
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
406. Patrap
10:22 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
We have.

: P

Us renaissance Men do dat.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
405. NativeSun
10:13 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 396. blueyedbiker:

I have never tried to push my beliefs, whether they are proven beliefs are not on to anyone
I completely agree that humans do not take care of this planet like they should.

But,
When there are people that continuously push and diminish another person about a certain issue I personally do not see where it is right.
All I am saying if someone feels so strongly about something like AWG, then come on a blog and preach so strongly to get their point across.
I personally do not live my life 100% off grid. I wish I did
But I would never come on a blog and preach to someone else about how they live their life and how they are a AWG denier unless I did live 100% off grid
So, To the ones that don't pay an electric bill every month, Do not drive a vehicle with a combustable engine, those are the ones that can preach to me 24/7
Its like going to church every Sunday and listen to a preacher preach to his congregation about the Ten Commandments then go sleep around on his wife after church is out.
Nothing but a Hypocrite


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
404. NativeSun
9:56 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 365. AZweather13:



Climate change is not a liberal agenda. It is a real threat that will destroy our planet and everything with it if it goes unchecked. There is overwhelming evidence supporting climate change to deny it. The only thing that keeps deniers going is anecdotal evidence. Looking at all the trends however, you can clearly see how climate change is already impacting our world. Sandy, South Carolina floods, California drought, Chennai. And this is coming from a self-identifying conservative. Wake up and smell the roses.
Lets get this straight, you say climate change will destroy this plant, how do we stop climate change after all the climate was changing long before man walked on this planet. CO2 levels have been a lot higher in the past, and so has the temp., but the planet is still here as was the life on the planet when the CO2 and Temps were higher. Thank God the planet is warming slightly, I would sure hate it to be slightly cooling instead. Please no more Ice Ages in the near future as this would be the end of the world as we know it, but eventually it will happen.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
403. Grothar
9:45 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 402. ACSeattle:


And "Huckleberry Finn" is "incoherent nonsense" because it it written in dialect?


They should read James Joyce.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
400. CaneFreeCR
8:03 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 392. MahFL:



In that case the test would be a rigged test in favor of the electric car. When you do scientific comparisons you have to try to make the tests equal.

Wrong again. The test is to determine whether the person being challenged would choose one door or the other. The test also puts both cars on equal footing to verify their heat and pollution output. The fossil fuel vehicle could be either powered by gasoline or diesel, and the result would be the same. And as VAStorms pointed out, more and more EVs are charged by solar or wind, neither of which generates pollution in operation. Rigging a "scientific comparison" (which this was not) is mostly accomplished by deniers who ignore much of the hard data from the experiment. Note that the experiment referred to by "The Governator" is not a test of two cars, it is the uncontrolled tinkering with the living system of the Earth on which we all depend, which experiment will, unless stopped and reversed, lead to a seriously debased environment on which humans and all other life depend and which is deteriorating more rapidly every day.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
399. Neapolitan
7:49 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 396. blueyedbiker:

>So, To the ones that don't pay an electric bill every month, Do not drive a vehicle with a combustable engine, those are the ones that can preach to me 24/7
Its like going to church every Sunday and listen to a preacher preach to his congregation about the Ten Commandments then go sleep around on his wife after church is out.
Nothing but a Hypocrite


Oh, dear; it appears we have yet another victim of the to quoque fallacy. Sorry, my friend.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
398. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
7:36 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
397. Climate175
7:35 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 366. wunderkidcayman:

No worries the cold will come just give it time people

I say this early to mid December warm and/or mild late December will become cold Jan would be colder




I agree, the GFS is showing from the 18th onward into Christmas Week, the pattern turning colder with precipitation being around. We will have to watch this period closely.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
396. blueyedbiker
7:34 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
I have never tried to push my beliefs, whether they are proven beliefs are not on to anyone
I completely agree that humans do not take care of this planet like they should.

But,
When there are people that continuously push and diminish another person about a certain issue I personally do not see where it is right.
All I am saying if someone feels so strongly about something like AWG, then come on a blog and preach so strongly to get their point across.
I personally do not live my life 100% off grid. I wish I did
But I would never come on a blog and preach to someone else about how they live their life and how they are a AWG denier unless I did live 100% off grid
So, To the ones that don't pay an electric bill every month, Do not drive a vehicle with a combustable engine, those are the ones that can preach to me 24/7
Its like going to church every Sunday and listen to a preacher preach to his congregation about the Ten Commandments then go sleep around on his wife after church is out.
Nothing but a Hypocrite

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
395. nonblanche
7:34 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 387. MahFL:

Hold onto your hats !

Lake Tahoe area.

"Ridge gusts up to 125 mph."


That's pretty typical for this kind of storm, the geology does funnel a lot of the wind. Our high gusts are usually higher than Fallon NAS, a couple miles away. Means some of the perishables at our WalMart might leave some gaps, when the trucks have to wait to make it over.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
394. nonblanche
7:32 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
So hi!

An update on Mr. Pig - I can believe how much of a miracle drug penicillin was when it first came out. Three days ago his temperature was 105.9 (normal pig body temps are 100 through 102), the next day it was down to 103.6, and yesterday he was happily wallowing in mud, so I wasn't going to go fishing in the mud for his rectal thermometer orifice. :) Almost certainly feeling back to his old self, I haven't checked him yet today. But three days, going from almost pneumonia, coughing and whimpering to "OH HAI YOU BRING ME TRTS? KTHXGRUNTGRUNT" is pretty miraculous.

Now in the weather world - I'm trying to figure out what the storm has for us, precip-wise, here in ol' 89406. Forecasts are from .10" over the next two days to 3/4" OMG RAIN SNOW AIEEEE. We get dry-slotted a lot, and the models are not something I can make a solid guesstimate on. I need to get stuff moved around, and I have no idea what's in store. This frustrates me no end. Stupid weather.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
393. weathermanwannabe
7:30 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 373. Patrap:

Can we get a CONUS Jet Stream update here?

Thanx...


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
392. MahFL
7:29 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 389. CaneFreeCR:

The heat is generated by work, and is not enough to warm the interior of the car is cold weather even when moving the car. An electric motor running at full tilt but not moving the car isn't working much and isn't generating much heat.


In that case the test would be a rigged test in favor of the electric car. When you do scientific comparisons you have to try to make the tests equal.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
391. ACSeattle
7:16 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 386. MahFL:

Global warming anyone ? :

"... Record high temperature set at South Lake Tahoe CA...
a record high temperature of 61 degrees was set at South Lake Tahoe CA today.
This breaks the old record of 54 set in 1976.
Records for this location date from 1968"

For sure the records only go back to 68, but still it was a whole 7 degrees.

Temps like that probably aren't helping build the snowpack
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
390. beell
7:10 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 344. Patrap:



The free Market got us to 400ppm and I highly doubt it will get us down to 350ppm or less.

Yo,

He should learn How to spell, "Lose". First maybe?

LoL


That was my typo.
:(
:)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
389. CaneFreeCR
6:47 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 380. MahFL:



Door no.2 would likely be fatal too, electric cars give off a lot of heat, you might die of heat stroke, depends how big the room is of course.
The heat is generated by work, and is not enough to warm the interior of the car in cold weather even when moving the car. An electric motor running at full tilt but not moving the car isn't working much and isn't generating much heat. I doubt it would become oppressive in an hour -- maybe in a day or so. Whereas burning fuel produces heat, and pollution, whether work is done or not. Electric cars get a lot more heat than they give off, from people who don't have a clue about their technology.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
388. NttyGrtty
6:47 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Lots of posts lately about agendas on the blog. Of course there are agendas. EVERYONE has an agenda. Your agenda is part of what defines you as an individual. On this blog, you can either fill up your ignore list until you only see posts that conform to your agenda or you can attempt to learn something from other's agenda. My $02...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
387. MahFL
6:46 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Hold onto your hats !

Lake Tahoe area.

"Ridge gusts up to 125 mph."
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
386. MahFL
6:43 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Global warming anyone ? :

"... Record high temperature set at South Lake Tahoe CA...
a record high temperature of 61 degrees was set at South Lake Tahoe CA today.
This breaks the old record of 54 set in 1976.
Records for this location date from 1968"

For sure the records only go back to 68, but still it was a whole 7 degrees.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
385. Some1Has2BtheRookie
6:36 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 354. VAstorms:

Chinese glaciers disappearing rapidly with greater flooding alternating with drought.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/09/world/asia/chin ese-glaciers-retreat-signals-trouble-for-asian-wat er-supply.html?emc=edit_th_20151209&nl=todaysheadl ines&nlid=46427363



Chinese Glacier’s Retreat Signals Trouble for Asian Water Supply.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
384. Patrap
6:36 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 380. MahFL:



Door no.2 would likely be fatal too, electric cars give off a lot of heat, you might die of heat stroke, depends how big the room is of course.



There is a formula used for that, and your premise is 100% wrong...even if the room was only 10 by 10'.

Math, it matters greatly.

: )
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
383. Naga5000
6:36 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 378. canyonboy:



Asterisk: 97% of 32% of the climate papers that expressed a position on AGW.

Link




How many papers do you think express a position on plate tectonics, evolution, or the germ theory of disease? Once a position is solidified in the discourse it becomes redundant to take a position. Besides, Doran 2009 found 97.5% of actively publishing climate scientists accept that the current warming is mainly due to humans, Anderegg et al. 2010 finds 97% consensus among publishing climate scientists through survey, Oreskes 2004 found 75% of papers published accept the consensus position with 25% taking no position, the change from 2004, to Cook et al. 2013 highlights my first comment that as positions become solidified in discourse they are less likely to be explicitly stated in research. There are a few more out there, James Lawrence Powell's work found that in 2013-2014, 24,210 papers accepted the premise of human caused global warming with only 5 that reject it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
382. Patrap
6:34 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 376. aquak9:

I like pie...



The force is strong in Pie.

wooom,..woooomh'



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
381. CraigsIsland
6:34 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 222. ColoradoBob1:

There are two doors. Behind Door Number One is a completely sealed room, with a regular, gasoline-fueled car. Behind Door Number Two is an identical, completely sealed room, with an electric car. Both engines are running full blast.

I want you to pick a door to open, and enter the room and shut the door behind you. You have to stay in the room you choose for one hour. You cannot turn off the engine. You do not get a gas mask.

I’m guessing you chose the Door Number Two, with the electric car, right? Door number one is a fatal choice – who would ever want to breathe those fumes?


Did The Governator Just Come Up With A Republican-Proof Argument On Climate Change?


As a Californian - I'm proud that a Republican Governor has been vocal about global warming. We get it. We're very interconnected with the rest of the world and we definitely understand how precarious our situation is/can be in the future.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
380. MahFL
6:32 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 350. Patrap:

Door number one is a fatal choice - who would ever want to breathe those fumes?


Door no.2 would likely be fatal too, electric cars give off a lot of heat, you might die of heat stroke, depends how big the room is of course.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
379. weesej
6:31 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Howdy all. I've been a lurker for the last 2 years....huge weather fanatic my entire life. Learned to read on the Weather Channel. ..those old, slow scrolling text. ..planned my entire childhood to be a met, was accepted to school and that summer met and fell in love with my husband to be and fell in love...and that was the end of that dream; ) In any case in my early twenties I made a decision to follow Christ and became an extremely conservative Christian. ..I think it's safe to say I'm one of the most conservative people on here. (I look Amish and belong to a church with similar beliefs, plus some technology)

Here is my point, I do not understand how there are so many people using conservative religious beliefs to discount global warming. ..."God's in control, so it's ridiculous to think we could influence climate; thus we must come up with shreds of proof to show our viewpoint" Not so my friends, not so. God allows a little thing called freewill....He has allowed everyone plenty of opportunity to destroy their own lives or to thrive dependant on their choices. That same freewill has been extended to us as a human race, i feel we are being allowed to be players in destruction of the earth as described in the book of Revelation. Global warming is part of what we observe as that process and will lead to other things described there...the natural disasters, and the political and social unraveling. Yes, there is tremendous evidence that it is happening and yes we are causing it. I find it so frustrating to see so many people unwilling to be open minded and look at evidence because they have a rigid belief system and have been fed the idea that global warming is impossible. Just wanted to share another and likely more unique conservative perspective.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
378. canyonboy
6:25 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 367. weathermanwannabe:

I knew little about the details of global warming-climate change until I started to actively participate on this Blog which includes reading the main post and reading the links frequently posted by Dr. Masters and now Mr. Henson.

As I currently understand the issue in general terms (as a lay person), global warming in recent decades is a documented scientific fact. Second to that, the large majority of scientists worldwide who study theses issues have concluded that the very rapid pace of this particular warming period has been accelerated (and/or caused) by human co2/greenhouse gas emissions that can clearly be correlated to the industrial revolution and burning of fossil fuels based upon scientific data.

So yes, as Dr. Masters is on the side of the science and the Blog reflects that belief; expect to be bashed if you are on the side of the minority on this issue. The issue is not one of your personal beliefs (for all the non-scientists on here or any public blog who are not actually doing the research) but whether you believe, or ignore, the large body of science (97%) in favor of the noted issues.

Just noting my observation.



Asterisk: 97% of 32% of the climate papers that expressed a position on AGW.

Link

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
377. ChiThom
6:23 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
376. aquak9
6:23 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
I like pie...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
374. Patrap
6:13 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Also, we have no current blogs about the perceived "other side" listed in the directory here.


If you have a passion for the "other", why not lay it out in a blog there for the whole Globe to gander and awe over?


It is easy to write a blog..,easy as pie.


Be all u can be.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
373. Patrap
6:07 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Can we get a CONUS Jet Stream update here?

Thanx...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
371. Neapolitan
6:04 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 367. weathermanwannabe:

So yes, as Dr. Masters is on the side of the science and the Blog reflects that belief; expect to be bashed if you are on the side of the minority on this issue.
I've been a part of this community for a long time, and I've yet to see anyone "bashed" or banned for simply espousing a minority opinion. OTOH, I *have* seen numerous instances where a person with an ideologically-based agenda has come to this forum and started spouting thoroughly-debunked and discredited nonsense pulled from the cesspools of Fox or WUWT, calling scientists frauds and charlatans, whining how the country is sliding headlong into communism because a majority of people in it believe that corporations that pollute the most should pay the most to clean things up, and trying to battle a mountain of empirical scientific evidence armed with nothing more than an editorial in the WSJ or Forbes--only for that person to revert to endless mewling about how they're being "attacked" for speaking their mind when someone dares to question their sources, and talking about how the forum has gone to the dogs because of it.

Sigh...

So long as some insist on attacking science here, there'll be those of us to challenge them. That's just a to-be-expected-and-accepted fact...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
370. JohnLonergan
6:03 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
369. Patrap
5:58 PM GMT on December 09, 2015





Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
367. weathermanwannabe
5:50 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
I knew little about the details of global warming-climate change until I started to actively participate on this Blog which includes reading the main post and reading the links frequently posted by Dr. Masters and now Mr. Henson.

As I currently understand the issue in general terms (as a lay person), global warming in recent decades is a documented scientific fact. Second to that, the large majority of scientists worldwide who study theses issues have concluded that the very rapid pace of this particular warming period has been accelerated (and/or caused) by human co2/greenhouse gas emissions that can clearly be correlated to the industrial revolution and burning of fossil fuels based upon scientific data.

So yes, as Dr. Masters is on the side of the science and the Blog reflects that belief; expect to be bashed if you are on the side of the minority on this issue. The issue is not one of your personal beliefs (for all the non-scientists on here or any public blog who are not actually doing the research) but whether you believe, or ignore, the large body of science (97%) in favor of the noted issues.

Just noting my observation.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
366. wunderkidcayman
5:41 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
No worries the cold will come just give it time people

I say this early to mid December warm and/or mild late December will become cold Jan would be colder



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
361. Naga5000
5:26 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 353. JNFlori30A:

I just don't see how the changes that need to happen as quick as they need to happen can happen short of Jesus' return or a global military intervention. Industries are going to have to be nationalized in some fashion as (imo) the average share holder will never willingly allow for profit cuts.. even in light of overwhelming evidence that its the 'right thing to do'.


The profit cuts will be sure to come through doing nothing as well. When consumers cannot consume, capitalism becomes problematic. The focus for shareholders and corporations should be a realization of long term sustainability versus immediate profit. I know the economic sector doesn't like to be too concerned with long term goals, but they should be as the science lays out the different scenarios quite clearly. Is it possible to get that idea of long term sustainability as a reality instead of immediate profit, I don't know. Obviously as you point out, the alternative is much worse. Like I said, given the options someone is going to need to make concessions on their position. The average citizen has little to concede here, but probably the most to lose.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
360. Patrap
5:24 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
#358

Perfect prose and suggestion.

Thanx
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
359. Patrap
5:23 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
We are on Mars now and have been since 76'.

To think Man will not follow is like saying Columbus went on a solitary Mission and no one did follow...from Europe after.

It is silly.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
358. VelexiT
5:23 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 349. Naga5000:



Who said anything about global communism? How come the only solutions posited are the extremes? it's not just either the invisible hand of the free market or authoritarian government intervention. The solution lies between those two positions somewhere on the spectrum. If done properly, we can preserve economic growth and be environmentally sound, the reality is that it will take some concessions to get there.


Exactly. This zero-sum fear argument stuff has GOT to STOP. Every good and real patriotic American knows this country was built, and has continued to thrive (where it has - my apologies to indigenous peoples, which is another discussion) on COMPROMISE. This revisionist history garbage spouted by people who have named themselves for a bunch of thieving and Boston Harbor-polluting thugs needs to be called out for what it is - divisive and unproductive, regressive and dangerous tantrum-throwing. Let's grow up and start solving some problems by coming together - finding common ground (thanks, Gov. Arnold). Surely there are some things we can still agree upon.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
357. Midnight092289
5:22 PM GMT on December 09, 2015
Quoting 327. auburn:

Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic. Thank you.


There is a difference between a blog that allows political comments and a political blog. This has become a one-sided version of the latter. You won't miss my presence because I seldom contributed to the discussion. I sure will miss the depth of information and insightful weather-related comments that used to be available here.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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