Crazy Cryosphere: Record Low Sea Ice, An Overheated Arctic, and a Snowbound Eurasia

By: Bob Henson , 6:07 PM GMT on November 18, 2016

There are weather and climate records, and then there are truly exceptional events that leave all others in the dust. Such has been the case across Earth’s high latitudes during this last quarter of 2016, on track to be the planet’s warmest year on record. Sea ice extent and area have both plummeted to record lows for this time of year in both the Arctic and Antarctic. Such dramatic losses rarely occur at the same time, which means that the global total of sea ice coverage is phenomenally low for this time of year. The weirdness extends to midlatitudes: North America as well as the Arctic have been bathed in unusual mildness over the last several weeks, while Eurasia deals with a vast zone of above-average snowfall and below-average temperatures. Let’s look at each of these to see what’s up and where they may (or may not) be related.


Figure 1. Global sea ice area, including both Arctic and Antarctic. Sea ice extent is typically larger than sea ice area because it includes all data cells with at least 15 percent ice coverage (see NSIDC definitions). Global sea ice extent is experiencing a similar departure from average as global sea ice area. Experts usually analyze Arctic and Antarctic sea ice separately rather than together (see discussion below). Image credit: Wipneus, using data from National Snow and Ice Data Center. (NSIDC was not involved in producing this image.)


Figure 2. The normalized value of global sea ice area as of November 17, 2016, was so far from any other total in the 37-year record that it represented a departure of about 8 standard deviations below the average! Image credit: Wipneus, using data from National Snow and Ice Data Center. (NSIDC was not involved in producing this image.)


Figure 3. Departures from the 1981-2010 average for sea ice extent, in millions of square kilometers, across the Arctic (blue) and Antarctic (green) in the year 2016 through November 17. The departures from average were almost equally large by mid-November, leading to a total global sea ice extent of more than 4.2 million sq km below average. Image credit: Zachary Labe, based on data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. (NSIDC was not involved in producing this image.)

Strange times at both poles: coincidence or connection?
Round-the-clock darkness usually forces a rapid growth in sea ice across the Arctic by November, but that process has been much slower than normal over the past month or so. There is now far less mid-November sea ice in the Arctic than in any other year since satellite records began in 1979. For the five-day average ending November 17, the difference in Arctic sea ice extent between this year and the next-lowest year (2012) was 582,000 square kilometers, an area about a third larger than California. It’s an especially dramatic example of the long-term decline in sea ice across the Arctic that’s been evident for upwards of 20 years.

Experts agree that the laggard sea ice this month around Antarctica is a separate matter from the Arctic, because sea ice in the northern and southern polar regions is produced by two markedly different circulation regimes and geographies. “At NSIDC, we generally frown on the practice of looking at the global sea ice extent,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, “the reason being that ice in the two hemispheres tends to behave rather differently; while Arctic extent shows clear downward trends in all months, the pattern for the Antarctic has been much more complex.” Serreze and several other ice experts I contacted agreed that there was no obvious explanation for why sea ice extent would suddenly dip in unison in both the Arctic and Antarctic when the two processes are typically so uncorrelated. Previous record-warm years didn’t behave this way. Could some previously dormant or absent connection be popping up just now? If so, it’s not an obvious one. NSIDC’s Ted Scambos: “I’d say that to link the two poles with a single causality chain at the seasonal/annual level is probably about a decade of research in the future.”

Unlike the Arctic, sea ice extent around Antarctica has actually shown a slight increasing trend over the last couple of decades. This might seem odd in a global climate that’s warming, but there are several plausible explanations, as we discussed in an October 26 post. Just two years ago, in September 2014, Antarctic sea ice extent hit the highest values observed at any time of the year since monitoring began in 1979. We’re now seeing the lowest values on record for mid-November, and the margin between this year and all other years has been increasing. For the five-day average ending November 17, the difference in Antarctic sea ice extent between this year and the next-lowest year (1986) was an enormous 1.12 million square kilometers.

An Arctic that’s having trouble cooling down
Temperatures north of 80°N smashed records for warmth throughout the winter of 2015-16. Now they’re on an even more torrid pace. In mid-November, temperatures across the high Arctic spiked to readings more typical of September, about 40°F above average for this time of year (see Figure 3 in our November 17 post). “Continued persistence of this pattern may significantly affect sea ice thickness into 2017,” tweeted Zach Labe (@Zlabe, University of California, Irvine) on Monday.

It’s difficult to measure sea ice thickness and volume in a continuous way, but the University of Washington’s PIOMAS model, which estimates sea ice volume using the available data, dove into record-low territory this month, just weeks after a rapid refreeze took place early in the autumn. “Whatever the respective roles of natural variability and [anthropogenic global warming], these wild swings do not inspire confidence in a semi-stable system,” noted Neven Acropolis in an early-November update on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog.


Figure 4. The huge contrasts between a far-warmer-than-average Arctic and a much-colder-than-average North Asia are projected to continue for the period November 18 - 22, 2016, as forecast by the GFS model on Thursday, November 17. Shown are anomalies (departures from average) in degrees Fahrenheit (top of legend) and Celsius (bottom of legend). Image credit: ClimateReanalyzer.com, University of Maine.

The atmospheric circulation this autumn has favored southerly flow from the eastern Pacific into the Atlantic, which has pushed recurrent bouts of unusually warm air across North America and the North Atlantic into the Arctic. One focal point of the warmth has been the Kara and Barents Sea, north of Scandinavia and western Russia, where sea ice has seen little or no expansion for November thus far. Temperatures in Longyearben, Norway--Earth’s northernmost permanent settlement, at latitude 78°N--have varied between about 7°C and -4°C (45°F and 25°F) since October 22. The average high and low for November 15 are about 12°F and 0°F.


Figure 5. Temperatures in Svalbard, Norway (in degrees C) from October 2015 to October 2016, including daily highs and lows (spiky line) and a running average (smoothed line). Readings above freezing (0°C) are shown in red, with readings below freezing in blue. Only a couple of days in the entire past year have stayed below average (black curve), and only four days this autumn through November 17 have failed to get above freezing. Image credit: Norwegian Meteorological Service.


Figure 6. Daily air temperature (highs and lows averaged) at Vize Island, Russia, in the northern Kara Sea (latitude 79°N) have cooled very little since August. The temperature on November 15 was close to freezing (32°F), compared to an average for the date of around -1°F. The island is experiencing some of the most extreme coastal erosion on Earth, as permafrost melts and stronger winds and waves reach the area. Image credit: Richard James, World Climate Service, via Brian Brettschneider, @Climatologist49.


Unusual cold and snow in Eurasia
The only place in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere that’s been consistently cold and snowy this autumn is Eurasia (see Figure 4 above). It’s as if the hemisphere’s entire allotment of chilly, snowy weather has been rounded up and consigned to one area, albeit a big one. For this, we can credit or blame what’s called a “wave one” pattern, where the upper-level circulation around the North Pole is dominated by a single elongated loop, shunted in this case toward the Eurasian side. Although the cold in Eurasia hasn’t been enough to balance the warmth elsewhere, it’s been quite dramatic on its own terms. On November 9, Stockholm, Sweden, experienced its heaviest one-day November snowfall (39 cm or 15.4 inches) in records going back to 1904. Across Siberia, October produced what appears to be the greatest snow extent for the time of year since 1998, and some areas got record totals for so early in the season, according to a weather.com report. In central China’s Hubei province, hundreds of homes were damaged and thousands of power poles were brought down by heavy snow during the second week of November, according to Xinhua.

By comparison, the snows over North America have been paltry indeed. On November 15, only 0.2% of the entire contiguous U.S. was covered by snow, the lowest coverage for mid-November in at least 14 years.


Figure 7. A woman walks through a record-setting snowfall on November 9, 2016, in Sundbyberg, near Stockholm, Sweden. Image credit: Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP/Getty Images.

Autumn snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere: On the increase?
Overall, it appears there has been an increase in snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere during autumn in recent years. This tendency has been largely overshadowed by the much more distinct and dramatic loss of snow cover during the Northern Hemisphere spring, and there are some good reasons. For one, because there is so much more sunlight in spring versus autumn, the loss of spring snowcover would have a much bigger effect on Earth’s radiative balance than a corresponding gain in autumn snowcover. Still, the apparent autumn trend is worth noting, especially since it may be playing a role in winter weather across North America and Eurasia.


Figure 8. Monthly anomalies (departures from average) in snow cover extent across the Northern Hemisphere, in millions of square kilometers, for the months of (top to bottom) October, November, April, and May. Image credit: Rutgers Snow Lab.


The images at right paint the general picture. Based on NOAA satellite observations, snow cover has increased slightly across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in autumn and decreased sharply during spring. For the period 1967 - 2012, the spring trends were statistically significant (March through June) whereas the autumn trends weren’t, according to the most recent assessment report (2013) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Since that report came out, autumn snow extent has continued to run high across the Northern Hemisphere. The value for October 2016 was the third highest in the 51-year database, and the four prior Octobers were all well above the 1981-2010 average.

“The flakes have sure been flying in recent Octobers,” said David Robinson, state climatologist for New Jersey and leader of the Rutgers Snow Lab project. However, Robinson and other snow researchers I consulted still aren’t quite ready to classify the autumn increase as a significant trend. “My initial reaction is one of patience before being confident that there is a trend to identify,” said Robinson. “How many years that might take is the question.”

Complicating the task, ironically, is the improvement in satellite-based snow sensing technology over the years since 1967. In a 2013 paper titled “Is Eurasian October snow cover extent increasing?” (Environmental Research Letters), two scientists from Environment Canada, Ross Brown and Chris Derksen, presented evidence that the NOAA dataset was inconsistent with other sources of snow cover data for the period from 1982 to 2005, apparently due to improvements that allowed more early-season snow cover to be detected. After adjusting for this, the NOAA dataset showed a declining trend in Eurasian October snow cover through 2011, consistent with other datasets. Subsequent work along these lines has been carried out by Paul Kushner and Lawrence Mudryk (University of Toronto). “My conclusion from this is that the trends aren’t clear over the 1980s to early 2010s. I have not investigated the last few years,” Kushner told me.

A number of studies have pointed to the increasingly large expanse of open Arctic waters during autumn as a potential factor in producing heavier and/or more extensive snow cover. In particular, the open sections of the Karents and Bara seas provide a convenient source of moisture for early-season snowfall in adjacent Siberia. This is one of the key variables used to predict winter conditions across North America in the seasonal forecasting technique developed by Judah Cohen (Atmospheric and Environmental Research) and colleagues, as we discussed in an October 20 post. Importantly, Cohen’s technique doesn’t hinge on the presence of an increasingly snowy Eurasia, as Brown and Derksen point out: “The conclusion that October [snow cover extent] has not experienced significant increases over Eurasia in recent years does not undermine the arguments presented in Cohen et al (2012) linking Arctic moistening, Eurasian snow anomalies and extratropical winter cooling. This process depends on snow cover anomalies (not trends) and the physical processes involved in generating a strong surface cooling anomaly (albedo and surface temperature) depend on the areal extent and the depth of snow cover.”

In his weekly forecast update published on November 14, Cohen maintained that the above-average extent of snow this past October over Siberia should favor eventual disruption of the polar vortex and an enhanced chance of cold intrusions across Eurasia, possibly extending into eastern North America as we head into December and beyond.

We’ll be keeping an eye this weekend on slow-to-develop Invest 90L in the southwest Caribbean and will post updates as needed. See our post from earlier this morning for more details. Next week we’ll be covering the new GOES-R satellite, which at last check was scheduled to be launched at 5:42 pm EST Saturday. Sky and Telescope has details on how to watch the launch in person or online.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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182. ColoradoJoe
12:39 AM GMT on November 24, 2016
How great an impact will the sharp decrease in albedo for such a large swath of the Southern Ocean have -- especially since the Austral summer is coming?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
181. Caconz
10:09 AM GMT on November 21, 2016
Bob, thanks for the great post again

A couple of questions:
Could the decrease in sea ice in the Antarctic this year be a delayed reaction related to the ozone hole location? Last year I think I recollect the ozone hole was centred over Antarctica for a long time as opposed to drifting north over NZ like it normally does in the summer

Are there any good climate predictions for the southern hemisphere? I see a lot of info for the effect agw will have on the US, some for Europe/Middle East/Africa etc. Not much in the way of predictions for Australia or New Zealand

Quoting Post 58 ronnm "It is simply not affordable not politically expedient for places like Bangladesh, Burma, The Philippines and many other countries, (to numerous to mention) to build infrastructure or relocate populations internally to combat the inevitable flooding and salination of crop lands that will occur. Simply they don't have the money. The US most of Europe China yes."

Comments like this one seem to assume that the US can engineer itself away from sea level rise. As an engineer I say its possible but you cant afford it. Neither can most of Europe that will be affected by sea level rise.

Miami Beach is spending $400 million to protect parts of the city against a 4-5 ft sea level rise. Based on the IPCC reports that gives Miami Beach about 30-50 more years protection. According to Mr Henson and increasing numbers of scientists the IPCC reports are overly conservative. The sea ice is melting faster and so is the land ice, therefore sea level rise will be faster too

Can Miami Beach afford $400 million every 30-50 years if the IPCC is right? Next time it will cost extensively more to secure the same area. Then do the same for all of your coastal cities, all needed to be done at the same time, most costing much much more. The tax increases would be crippling for the US economy, whilst major portions of your country descend into multi-year drought, which will also need support

I just cant see where the US can get that money from
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
180. Dakster
11:43 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
LIFTOFF!!!!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
179. Dakster
11:36 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Still waiting for the launch to happen.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
178. RobertWC
11:16 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 114. westernmob:

Global Warming: Policy Hoax versus Dodgy Science:

Great article from Dr. Roy Spencer that signifies some of the half-truths and political motivations portrayed in climate "science"
Link


It's a great article if you got a PHD in phyisics from Trump University.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
177. Sfloridacat5
10:48 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Did the Men in Black show up and shut the blog down?

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
176. KoritheMan
10:48 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 132. islander101010:

todays upcoming launch wouldnt be happening if the eye of matthew moved over e cen florida. lucky or thats just climo?


It's obviously luck. It wasn't the synoptics that enabled Matthew to miss Florida, it was the EWRC inducing mesoscale wobbles.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
175. islander101010
10:40 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
blowup of convection=90l=bingo
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174. hotroddan
10:39 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 114. westernmob:

Global Warming: Policy Hoax versus Dodgy Science:

Great article from Dr. Roy Spencer that signifies some of the half-truths and political motivations portrayed in climate "science"
Link

Great article! Thanks for posting! :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
173. hotroddan
10:36 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 114. westernmob:

Global Warming: Policy Hoax versus Dodgy Science:

Great article from Dr. Roy Spencer that signifies some of the half-truths and political motivations portrayed in climate "science"
Link

Great article! Thanks for posting! :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
172. hotroddan
10:41 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
@114westernmob Great link. Thanks for posting that article. :)
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171. stormpetrol
10:23 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
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170. oldnewmex
10:19 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
NASA tv has good coverage of GOES-R launch aboard an Atlas rocket, and subsequent deployment about 3 hours later.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
169. KoritheMan
10:13 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Although convection has decreased with 90L this afternoon, this is probably a diurnal fluctuation. Most importantly, visible satellite imagery suggests that the circulation has become much better-defined since yesterday, and we should see a significant increase in shower activity overnight; given the potency of the low-level circulation, that convection should be able to organize. The system is still experiencing some residual shear, but it appears to be decreasing. The GFS and ECMWF rightly make this system a tropical cyclone in 2 to 3 days, with the ECMWF showing a significant hurricane moving into Nicaragua. I still believe we'll get a tropical storm at the very least, as I have for days. Heavy, flooding rains and loss of life are likely over portions of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
168. Xyrus2000
9:33 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 114. westernmob:

Global Warming: Policy Hoax versus Dodgy Science:

Great article from Dr. Roy Spencer that signifies some of the half-truths and political motivations portrayed in climate "science"
Link


Roy Spencer is quack. His so-called research has been debunked so often that the only thing he can publish on is his joke of a blog.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
167. Xyrus2000
9:26 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 136. washingaway:

From the National Snow and Ice Data Center

Sea ice has a much higher albedo compared to other earth surfaces, such as the surrounding ocean. A typical ocean albedo is approximately 0.06, while bare sea ice varies from approximately 0.5 to 0.7. This means that the ocean reflects only 6 percent of the incoming solar radiation and absorbs the rest, while sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent of the incoming energy. The sea ice absorbs less solar energy and keeps the surface cooler.

Snow has an even higher albedo than sea ice, and so thick sea ice covered with snow reflects as much as 90 percent of the incoming solar radiation. This serves to insulate the sea ice, maintaining cold temperatures and delaying ice melt in the summer. After the snow does begin to melt, and because shallow melt ponds have an albedo of approximately 0.2 to 0.4, the surface albedo drops to about 0.75. As melt ponds grow and deepen, the surface albedo can drop to 0.15. As a result, melt ponds are associated with higher energy absorption and a more rapid ice melt.


So, if more solar radiation (or solar entergy) is reaching Earth because of a weakening magnetic field, doesn't it stand to reason that could excelerate melting? In no way am I dismissing the effects of co2, just wondering if it's a compound effect?


The magnetic field does not prevent solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface. The magnetic field affects charged solar particles, also known as "solar wind". Protons, electrons, muons, and other charge carrying particles are affected by magnetic fields.

Electromagnetic radiation (IR, UV, Visible, etc.) are not impeded in any way by magnetic fields. The same applies to neutrons, nutrinos, and any other "chargeless" entities. Therefore, it doesn't matter how strong or how weak the Earth's magnetic field is, the insolation at the surface would remain the same.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
166. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:20 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
165. PedleyCA
8:43 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
164. GeoffreyWPB
8:34 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
90L...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
163. HurricaneHunterJoe
8:31 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
NWS San Diego

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
A trough of low pressure is over the eastern Pacific early this
morning with a closed upper center off the Pacific Northwest coast
and a trough axis extending southward along 135W. This trough of
low pressure will bring a return of onshore flow today with
cooling continuing to spread inland.

For late tonight and Sunday...the southern end of this trough will
amplify and a second closed upper center may form briefly as it
moves into Southern California Sunday night. Some models show the
possibility of some light showers late tonight...mainly across
portions of the Los Angeles metro area east of Los Angeles County
with very weak upper ridging ahead of the trough reducing
precipitation chances during the day on Sunday. The main period of
precipitation is expected for a 3 to 6 hour period associated with
the cold frontal passage. Current model timing would bring the
leading edge of the front into areas just east of Los Angeles
County early Sunday evening with the front reaching San Diego
County during the middle to late evening. Please see the hydrology
section below for more details on the precipiation. High
temperatures will cool to slightly below average on Sunday and 5 to
locally 10 degrees below average on Monday. Southwest to west winds
in portions of the mountains and deserts could be near advisory
strength at times for Sunday night into Monday...especially for San
Diego County.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
162. hydrus
8:26 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 133. isothunder67:



Luck, LUCK, luck, lucK, LUck, LucK, lUCK, luCk, LuCK. Every kind of luck variation. Had Matthew move parallel to the Cuba coast for a tad bit longer or wobbled west a bit more, this blog would have probably never exist, nor this comment.
Yes indeed..As bad a Mathew was, it could have been far worse.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
161. HurricaneHunterJoe
8:23 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
The "R" word being mentioned in Soo Cal.....let's see what happens.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
160. PedleyCA
8:23 PM GMT on November 19, 2016

BLOG HOLE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
159. barbamz
8:21 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Indeed, a stormy night for folks adjacent to the British Channel:

Storm Angus: South-east England braced for 80mph winds
BBC, 2 hours ago
Coastal areas in south-east England are set to be hit by 80mph winds in the first named storm of the season.
The Met Office has issued an amber "be prepared" warning before Storm Angus reaches the coast from Bournemouth to Dover overnight.
A yellow "be aware" warning for winds up to 55mph and heavy rain has been issued for a larger area of the south and east of England, including London.
Forecasters are warning of possible localising flooding. ...



Current IR loop, updating.

Surface map for tomorrow: Behind "Angus" (in Germany: "Nanette") next cyclone "Petrine" is expected to develop and follow suite.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
157. Misanthroptimist
8:01 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 122. wartsttocs:

Arctic sea ice extent as measured by JAXA/IJIS has just dropped almost 100,000 sq. km.! We are now in mid-late November and Arctic sea ice extent stands at 8,329,714 sq. km.
Link

It's stunning, isn't it?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
156. BayFog
7:53 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 124. washingaway:


From Live Science: "Earth's magnetic field, which protects the planet from huge blasts of deadly solar radiation"
The magnetic field only protects us from energetic charged particles from the sun. It does not protect us from any electromagnetic radiation such as ultraviolet, x-rays and gamma rays. Our atmosphere protects us, mostly, from EM radiation.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
155. Misanthroptimist
7:45 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 96. trunkmonkey:





If you can work out how all of that relates to Kevin Bacon then you'll have a pretty entertaining story. It'll still be largely useless wrt AGW/CC, but it'll at least be interesting and have Bacon.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
154. washingtonian115
7:42 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
90L is set to be investigated by the HH Sunday.Should be interesting.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
153. VirginIslandsVisitor
7:42 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Good afternoon

It's 82 and feeling like 92, very cloudy with periods of heavy rain, and currently under a flash flood warning on the island today.

Other than that, some of the grocery stores have arranged to have their fresh goods flown in to cover the time it has taken to get the broken down transport ship's goods into the island. They've guaranteed this arrangement won't cause prices to go up but that remains to be seen. In the meantime they tell us that there will be lots of food on the shelves for thanksgiving.

And on my biweekly Zika update, the following was published late last week:

"The total number of Zika cases in the territory, to include pregnant women which the Department of Health now counts separately, skyrocketed to 833 cases, D.O.H. announced late Tuesday.

But the increase, according to the department’s director of public relations, was caused by a backlog of cases that were pending, which D.O.H. finally received.

'The significant increase in positive cases is primarily due to pending results dating back three weeks; the case increase is not specific to last week,” said Nykole Tyson. “As last weeks surveillance report indicated, there were a large number of pending results (261 on last report) that we received results back for and have updated the status in the database accordingly. The currently pending results reflects the most recent samples sent to CDC.'

According to the latest report, St. Thomas continues to lead with total confirmed cases of 556, followed by St. Croix with a total of 139 confirmed cases, and St. John with 52 confirmed cases. The number of pregnant women confirmed to be infected rose by 13 to 86 cases."

Hoping all is good with you folks out there!

Lindy


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152. isothunder67
8:16 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quiet..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
151. westernmob
7:30 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 127. Neapolitan:

Your definition of "great" appears to differ substantially with that of the dictionary's.

Spencer is a has-been, a con, a scammer who long ago sold his credibility for a few lousy pieces of silver and the chance to rub shoulders with scientific giants such as Limbaugh, Hannity, and Savage.


Specifics? Or are you of the alarmist mantra?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
150. westernmob
7:28 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 116. ChiThom:



Feel free to refute any facts he's portrayed.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
149. washingtonian115
9:15 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 2m2 minutes ago
Wow... Temp dropped from 70 at 3p to 52 at 4p in DC. Winds gusting over 40 mph. Now that's a cold front!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
148. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:21 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 130. hydrus:

Yep...He seems to believe that God knew that we would pollute the Earth and therefore has made an allowance for it, and will fix itself....
our god kinda likes sitting back watching us make fools of ourselves maybe we should show him instead
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147. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:19 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 55. Neapolitan:

Another graph to illustrate what's going on at the top of the world:

Click for a larger, interactive, animated version:



2030 at the current rate and speed 2030
24 years
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
146. 62901IL
6:43 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 119. EmsiNasklug:

90l looks like it's getting somewhere, eventually. GFS wants a crossover, Euro sees a possible landfall in Nicaragua.



Repeat of Hurricane Beta of 2005?

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
145. Misanthroptimist
7:55 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 114. westernmob:

Global Warming: Policy Hoax versus Dodgy Science:

Great article from Dr. Roy Spencer that signifies some of the half-truths and political motivations portrayed in climate "science"
Link

Spencer would be better served by getting his latest version of the UAH published. Sophistry should be left to others. But, he does have an oath to fulfill.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
144. frank727
7:26 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 119. EmsiNasklug:

90l looks like it's getting somewhere, eventually. GFS wants a crossover, Euro sees a possible landfall in Nicaragua.



I can dream 90L would put out the fires in the southeast US. We have high winds today to only influence the fires and only moisture to dream about.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
143. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:39 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 121. EmsiNasklug:


It protects us from solar wind and space radiation, not from solar radiation.

correct if it did not the atmosphere and all the water below it would be stripped away and carry off into space
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142. UrcaDeLima
7:55 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Nice evening for the GOES-R launch. I wish this site had some more information on it. Yeah, I can go to NOAA and find out more, I'm sure. I will not watch The Weather Channel, however, for anything other than live weather reports. It's a shame that the only mention of the new GOES-R satellite is a shill for a TWC program that was on earlier today.

Hopefully these clouds will dissipate before 5:30 pm. The Atlas 5 launch just after sunset should be spectacular even from a few dozen miles away.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
141. EmsiNasklug
6:25 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 112. Carnivorous:

The next ASCAT will also be in a few hours so lets wait and see ;)

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
140. justmehouston
6:24 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Woo-hoo! Its a beautiful 58F here in Houston right now.
Glorious sunshine and a bit breezy. Going to 40 tonight!
Super excited for the first fire of the year!
Putting up the Christmas tree and lights right now.
Hope everyone is having a wonderful weekend
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
139. Ed22
5:50 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 115. Skyepony:

90L

Tropical Depression right now, thats it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
138. Ed22
5:44 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 107. Carnivorous:

That's interesting...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized
this morning in association with an area of low pressure located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. In addition, satellite data
and surface observations indicate that the circulation has become a
little better defined. Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for additional development, only a small
increase in the organization of the low could result in the
formation of a tropical depression. This system is expected to move
slowly and erratically during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent


Yeah off course.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
137. 999Ai2016
5:36 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Windstorm forecast confirmed by Meteo-France (they put the average recurrence interval of such a storm at 3-4 times a year, not uncommon), with max w. gusts predicted around 120-130kmh (or 74-80mph) in a few locations on the Channel and Brittany coasts, and Belgium, Netherlands also experiencing quite windy conditions tonight/tomorrow : (image link, arpege model run from Twitter). But there is more :
* Quoting Estofex.org: Synopsis and Discussion
(storm forecast issued: Sat 19 Nov 2016 17:00. Forecaster: Kahraman.)
(...) The current Arctic anomaly results in much warmer temperature than average in high latitudes, while much cooler than average temperature remains over Asia, which is covered with an extended area of snow. An impressive ~1065 mb high pressure centre over N Kazakhstan influences E Europe. On the other hand, NE Atlantic experiences rapid cyclogenesis, which hits western parts of Europe on and on. A deep low pressure centre of 976 mb is expected to be passing over S U.K. by the morning hours on Sunday, heading Norway during the forecast period. Behind that, another cyclone develops and deepens, reaching Bay of Biscay further in the night. The pressure gradient between the high in the east and the lows in the west create strong southerly flow over much of the continent, advecting warmer air northwards in central Europe. (...) Click Estofex, other links for more info.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
136. washingaway
5:16 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
From the National Snow and Ice Data Center

Sea ice has a much higher albedo compared to other earth surfaces, such as the surrounding ocean. A typical ocean albedo is approximately 0.06, while bare sea ice varies from approximately 0.5 to 0.7. This means that the ocean reflects only 6 percent of the incoming solar radiation and absorbs the rest, while sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent of the incoming energy. The sea ice absorbs less solar energy and keeps the surface cooler.

Snow has an even higher albedo than sea ice, and so thick sea ice covered with snow reflects as much as 90 percent of the incoming solar radiation. This serves to insulate the sea ice, maintaining cold temperatures and delaying ice melt in the summer. After the snow does begin to melt, and because shallow melt ponds have an albedo of approximately 0.2 to 0.4, the surface albedo drops to about 0.75. As melt ponds grow and deepen, the surface albedo can drop to 0.15. As a result, melt ponds are associated with higher energy absorption and a more rapid ice melt.


So, if more solar radiation (or solar entergy) is reaching Earth because of a weakening magnetic field, doesn't it stand to reason that could excelerate melting? In no way am I dismissing the effects of co2, just wondering if it's a compound effect?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
135. wartsttocs
5:13 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
So our science denier friends here consider simple 5th grade science and observations about the current conditions of our weather,climate, and cryosphere to be all "doom and gloom".
And then go on to post Youtube videos from this guy: Link

Now that is a reversal!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
134. CaribBoy
5:12 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 115. Skyepony:

90L



Too bad it may not move like wrong way Lenny
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
133. isothunder67
5:11 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
Quoting 132. islander101010:

todays upcoming launch wouldnt be happening if the eye of matthew moved over e cen florida. lucky or thats just climo?


Luck, LUCK, luck, lucK, LUck, LucK, lUCK, luCk, LuCK. Every kind of luck variation. Had Matthew move parallel to the Cuba coast for a tad bit longer or wobbled west a bit more, this blog would have probably never exist, nor this comment.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
132. islander101010
5:02 PM GMT on November 19, 2016
todays upcoming launch wouldnt be happening if the eye of matthew moved over e cen florida. lucky or thats just climo?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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