About Jeff Masters
Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
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Dolly's rains continue to inundate Texas and Mexico
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:41 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Tropical Storm Dolly continues plowing west over South Texas, dumping huge quantities of rain. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as 25 inches (Figure 1) have already been reported, and Dolly will probably rank as one of the the ten rainiest tropical cyclones to affect Texas. At its peak, Dolly delivered five inches of rain per hour to the coast at landfall. AIR Worldwide insurance company estimates that the total insured damage from Dolly will run $300 million - $1.2 billion, mostly due to flooding and wind damage (total damage is typically estimated as double the insured damage, and would thus be $600 million - $2.4 billion). One bright spot to Dolly's rampage--the storm's rains brought an end to the moderate to severe drought gripping extreme South Texas, and will help with drought conditions along coastal Texas northwards to Corpus Christi.
Dolly's total damage is difficult to estimate at this point, because much of it has yet to occur. Dolly is dumping prodigious rains, thanks to its very slow forward speed of about 7 mph. The rains from Dolly may rival those of Hurricane Beulah of 1967. Beulah, a huge and powerful Category 3 hurricane, dumped up to 27 inches of rain inland, triggering major flooding throughout South Texas and Northeast Mexico. Beulah did over $1 billion in damage to Texas, due in part to failure of levees on the Rio Grande River. Considerable damaging flooding will affect South Texas over the next few days, as Dolly's rains continue to pound the state. However, the levees on the Rio Grande River are expected to hold.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall from Dolly.
Figure 2. Rainfall measured during Hurricane Beulah of 1967. Beulah caused over $1 billion in damage to South Texas, mostly due to serious flooding from rains that totaled up to 27 inches. Image credit: NOAA.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (97L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, is now over cool water of 25°C. The wave still has a large circulation, but has lost all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. Until 97L can find some warmer water (which should happen by Saturday), there is little chance of it developing. Wind shear is expected to be around 15 knots on Saturday, which is marginal for development, and there is plenty of stable, dry air for it to contend with. None of the reliable computer models show development of this system.
The four reliable computer models are not predicting development anywhere else in the Atlantic for the next 7 days.
Last blog until August 6
With the tropics relatively quiet now, I'm going to take some time off and do some hiking in Colorado (I've spent the past 3 days blogging from the back seat of a heavily loaded rental car, driving cross-county!) The peak part of hurricane season is almost a month away, and if the behavior of the tropics in July is any indication, it will be a long and severe hurricane season. So, I'm going to get some R&R in, and let Bryan Woods blog for me while I'm gone. I will be keeping an eye on things, and can jump back in if anything nasty pops up.
Jeff Masters
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2056. CATfour
1:00 AM GMT on July 27, 20082055. CATfour
10:46 PM GMT on July 26, 20082054. fire831rescue
5:50 PM GMT on July 26, 20082053. clamshell
5:40 PM GMT on July 26, 2008Try to buy a home and the flood insurance is right there in the contract. I made sure to buy my home outside the flood zone and when I read the mortgage contract, it had that requirement for flood insurance in it. Fortunately for me, I had brought governmental proof that I was outside the zone and they deleted it from the contract.
Governmental buffoonery is still alive and well. Check out the arrest in Naples of a man for stealing 42 cents from a fountain in a mall. Yet the same paper did not think it of importance to report a 26 year old handicaped man left in a sweltering van for over an hour while the counselor went bowling. A government worker was responsible in both instances.
To paraphrase the song in Wizard of Oz...'if they only had a brain'.
2052. fire831rescue
5:33 PM GMT on July 26, 20082051. JRRP
5:29 PM GMT on July 26, 20082050. clamshell
5:28 PM GMT on July 26, 2008Maybe not; but, I do lurk extensively. ;-)
2049. Orcasystems
5:22 PM GMT on July 26, 2008ROFLMAO, you don't post often on here do you..
2048. Orcasystems
5:21 PM GMT on July 26, 2008I don't know how it works down there, but I know how it works up here. If you build in a Flood plane.. you cannot get flood insurance..and if you can, you pay for it thru the wazzo.
2047. clamshell
5:21 PM GMT on July 26, 2008The only one who could be offended is me, since you were answering my post, and I do not find what you said to be offensive.
Everyone else should mind their own business.
2046. clamshell
5:18 PM GMT on July 26, 2008Tell me. Did those people build their homes and businesses with or without permits?
Allowing people to build in 'below sea level' areas seems a bit on the 'buffoonery' side wouldn't you say? Weren't the levees built to protect those stupid enough to settle in those 'below sea level' areas. Didn't that make the government folks responsible to maintain the levees at peak design specifications?
From what I have personally read and seen on the media outlets, as well; the levees were woefully maintained and they failed as a result.
Buffoonery is a polite term for what they actually are responsible for doing or not doing.
2045. Orcasystems
5:17 PM GMT on July 26, 20082044. cajunkid
5:07 PM GMT on July 26, 20082043. Orcasystems
5:05 PM GMT on July 26, 2008The flooding was not due to "governmental buffoonery". It was due to peoples stupidity to believe they can make a river go where its not suppose to go, and their belief they can cheat mother nature.
If your foolish enough to believe you can live below sea level..and somehow the "governmental buffoonery" is going to change mother nature and keep you safe... your at best, a fool.
2042. clamshell
5:01 PM GMT on July 26, 2008Well mate...
Where was the majority of the $81 billion damage supposedly claimed to have been done? It was from flooding. Had it been simply a wind event, the damage would have been much less.
My point was and is that yellow journalism coupled with yellow science distorted the observations of what actually happened with Katrina. Katrina was not a rain event, she was a wind event.
The flooding was the result of governmental buffoonery. Katrina was only responsible in tipping it over the edge so to speak.
Meteorology is a science and we must always remind ourselves that by allowing yellow journalism to color the glasses through which we observe the weather, we jeopardize many lives.
2041. BahaHurican
4:59 PM GMT on July 26, 2008Yeah, 23, it's about the only place I know of that archives. I've never tried making my own loop. Maybe I should do it one of these days . . .
2040. Orcasystems
4:57 PM GMT on July 26, 2008Now if I could only get her to add my location to it :(
2039. BahaHurican
4:54 PM GMT on July 26, 20082038. tornadododger
4:54 PM GMT on July 26, 20082037. hurricane23
4:52 PM GMT on July 26, 20082036. BahaHurican
4:49 PM GMT on July 26, 20082035. Orcasystems
4:48 PM GMT on July 26, 2008Here is the link for anyone else to use
2034. BahaHurican
4:45 PM GMT on July 26, 2008Welcome, tornadododger. I think most of the satlinks I have do realtime loops but not archived ones. I guess if you want a loop you may be able to build one from archived sat stills . . .
I would suggest checking out NRL as your best bet on the archived loops.
Sorry I can't help more.
2033. BahaHurican
4:42 PM GMT on July 26, 2008I'd like to say a special thanks to Patrap, who got me thinking beyond the obvious and simplistic about Louisiana and New Orleans, not just with the link hookups, but also by talking about his own opinions and experiences in a very clear and vivid way.
2032. tornadododger
4:39 PM GMT on July 26, 20082031. BahaHurican
4:30 PM GMT on July 26, 2008The major part of the damage done to New Orleans and the surrounding area was due to the poor governmental management of the levees that were supposed to protect those areas. Had they been properly managed, Katrina would have been the wind event she was and not much else. Certainly not the $81 billion storm that she is falsely being blame for.
You made some good points about the hyperbolic tendencies in the reporting of storms (also basketball games)these days. And I have to agree with you that Katrina was strengthening from the very moment she popped the TS category until she came onshore (I tend to view EWRCs as strengthening indicators, though I may be wrong to do so). The comments about Katrina and NOLA are, though, a bit oversimplified.
The problem with the levee situation in NOLA is that it WAS precarious. There were some chronic problems, recognised problems that weren't - and still aren't - as easy to fix as it might appear to someone looking in from the outside. I agree that these problems did contribute in a major way to the impact Katrina had on the city.
OTOH, not just any storm would have created the damage Katrina did. In fact, the last time was back in 1965, when Billion Dollar Betsy went through. It was Katrina's combination of angle, strength, and in particular, that extravolume storm surge, that did NOLA in. A quote from Wikipedia: "It was the sixth-strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded and the third-strongest hurricane on record that made landfall in the United States." Don't forget Katrina also had most storms that have hit NOLA in the last 50 years beat in terms of size. Plus most of the notable strikes in the area prior to this point were by relatively fast-moving storms. Don't forget that Katrina wiped out parts of the MS coast that Camille, a much stronger storm at landfall, left standing. Katrina was no "ordinary" hurricane.
In a lot of ways Katrina was a worst-case scenario for NOLA in particular, and not just any storm would have caused the havoc Katrina did there. In fact, if people hadn't been expecting another "Betsy" or something similar, some of those who stayed at home in the lower areas might have gone to higher ground or even out of town. I think a lot of them had faith in the new, improved infrastructure that had indeed withstood blows from other storms like Andrew and Georges.
But they weren't ready for Katrina.
2029. fldude99
4:17 PM GMT on July 26, 2008I can remember the weather channel talking about how Katrina had spared the area of major damage and the report being interupted by a report of the first of many 'small leaks in the levees' which turned into major leaks later in the day.
And that takes me to another example, which was the silly claim that Dolly 'has slammed' into the Texas coast. Katrina, Donna or Andrew...now they slammed into the coast. Dolly 'came ashore' in Texas. According to the Weather Channel, the highest winds recorded were less than 90 mph.
How can we, as observers of the weather, ever hope to get an even better understanding of the weather and hurricanes, if we resort to yellow journalism and yellow science as well?
One last thought. Didn't Katrina brush South Florida as a TS and only in the GOM did it ramp up to a monster. And didn't it ramp down its winds from a CAT5 to a CAT3 or less, as it closed in on the coast as well.
Tell that to the folks in MS..don't recall any levees giving way there mate
2027. extreme236
4:01 PM GMT on July 26, 2008Still about 15-20kts of wind shear keeping that center from joining up with the convection. Tomorrow should present the disturbance with more favorable conditions. We will have to see if it takes advantage of those.
2026. extreme236
4:00 PM GMT on July 26, 2008I understand what you are saying about the poor-governmental management of the situation and of failed levees. All of that was a disaster waiting to happen but Katrina is what triggered the disaster. It was a disaster waiting anyhow. However, remember NOLA was not the only place destroyed by Katrina, there were many other places that were part of the 81 Billion in damages.
2025. Michfan
3:54 PM GMT on July 26, 20082024. Stormchaser2007
3:53 PM GMT on July 26, 20082023. clamshell
3:48 PM GMT on July 26, 2008I would never say never. Before 2004 we never had a time since the 1800's (if then) that Florida was hit by 4 major hurricanes. We never had a storm on record intensify from TD to Hurricane in 12 hours (Lorenzo). Before Bertha we had never had a storm form so far east this early in the season.
Also, NOLA never thought they would get hit by a storm as bad as Katrina...they did...and it was 81 billion dollars in damage. We had never had a storm cause so much damage in the Atlantic before Katrina either.
**********
Sadly, yellow science and yellow journalism team up to mis-represent the weather once again.
The major part of the damage done to New Orleans and the surrounding area was due to the poor governmental management of the levees that were supposed to protect those areas. Had they been properly managed, Katrina would have been the wind event she was and not much else. Certainly not the $81 billion storm that she is falsely being blame for.
I can remember the weather channel talking about how Katrina had spared the area of major damage and the report being interupted by a report of the first of many 'small leaks in the levees' which turned into major leaks later in the day.
And that takes me to another example, which was the silly claim that Dolly 'has slammed' into the Texas coast. Katrina, Donna or Andrew...now they slammed into the coast. Dolly 'came ashore' in Texas. According to the Weather Channel, the highest winds recorded were less than 90 mph.
How can we, as observers of the weather, ever hope to get an even better understanding of the weather and hurricanes, if we resort to yellow journalism and yellow science as well?
One last thought. Didn't Katrina brush South Florida as a TS and only in the GOM did it ramp up to a monster. And didn't it ramp down its winds from a CAT5 to a CAT3 or less, as it closed in on the coast as well.
2022. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:47 PM GMT on July 26, 20082021. BahaHurican
3:47 PM GMT on July 26, 2008I'm going to be checking in and out myself today. Got some computer related housecleaning to do, along with watching the weather. If we get any interesting sights weatherwise, I may get out with my camera later.
2020. extreme236
3:43 PM GMT on July 26, 2008Yep that sounds about right...it might as well develop and add some ACE to the season total so its not completely useless lol
2019. Orcasystems
3:42 PM GMT on July 26, 2008Thats why I watch this blog.. storms cost me money.
BRB have to go to work in my other business, be back in about 45
2018. uptxcoast
3:39 PM GMT on July 26, 20082017. IKE
3:39 PM GMT on July 26, 20082016. zoomiami
3:39 PM GMT on July 26, 2008I agree with Baha - if you don't want a regular email available to trolls etc - just send me a WU mail & I will pick it up there.
2015. extreme236
3:38 PM GMT on July 26, 20082014. BahaHurican
3:37 PM GMT on July 26, 20082013. IKE
3:36 PM GMT on July 26, 2008Okay...here's what's going on in the tropical Atlantic.....
...........
There ya go!
2012. Chicklit
3:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2008Drakoen must be out backpacking with Dr. Masters.
2011. BahaHurican
3:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2008Actually Orca, it was really too late for you anyhow, seeing u had already given out your info . . . LOL. I was really thinking about others who might want to pass on their info but not do it in such a public setting.
And now I have to go look at your website . . . ;o)
2010. stormdude77
3:33 PM GMT on July 26, 20082009. stormdude77
3:25 PM GMT on July 26, 20082008. zoomiami
3:22 PM GMT on July 26, 2008Check your mail.
Orca - check reg email - let me know if it works.
2007. Orcasystems
3:17 PM GMT on July 26, 2008True, but if you google my nick you end up at my website.. which also gives you my name and phone number.. then again, as a habit, trolls are not to bright. Mind you, they might figure it out after this post.
2006. BahaHurican
3:16 PM GMT on July 26, 2008