Dean, Felix and Noel get their names retired; 13th warmest April on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on May 16, 2008

For the first time since the the incredible Hurricane Season of 2005, a new set of Atlantic hurricane names has been permanently retired. Members of the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Association IV Hurricane Committee decided to retire the names of Hurricane Dean, Hurricane Felix, and Hurricane Noel during their annual meeting in Orlando this week. These names will not be used again because of the significant death and destruction these storms caused in 2007. The names Dorian, Fernand, and Nestor will serve as replacements of the 2013 hurricane season, when the names from 2007 are scheduled to repeat. The list of retired hurricane names now features 21 storms from the decade of the 2000s, and 70 storms since 1954.


Figure 1. Satellite images of the fearsome threesome of 2007: Dean, Felix, and Noel.

The names for the coming 2008 Atlantic hurricane season are Arthur, Bertha, Christobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. Looking at the latest long range GFS model forecast, there's no sign that we'll be seeing Tropical Storm Arthur during the last half of May. Wind shear remains seasonably high over the tropical Atlantic, and there is plenty of dry air evident.

In the Eastern Pacific, where hurricane season began yesterday, the names for 2008 are Alma, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida, Fausto, Genevieve, Hernan, Isell, Julio, Karina, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odile, Polo, Rachel, Simon, Trudy, Vance, Winnie, Xavier, Yolanda, and Zeke. There's nothing brewing in that ocean basin, either.

April 2008: 13th warmest April on record for the globe
April 2008 was the 13th warmest April for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The January-April year-to-date period ranked twelfth warmest. A weak La Niña event continues to cool ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The La Niña event weakened considerably in April, but has stabilized just above the threshold for being classified as neutral, during the first half of May.

A cool April in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., April was the coolest April in 11 years for the lower 48 United States, and fell into the lowest twenty-five percent of all Aprils based on records going back to 1895, making it the 29th coolest April on record. Precipitation was near average for the month.

April arctic sea ice extent
April 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the eighth lowest on record for the month of April, 7% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. April was the fifth straight month that a new monthly minimum arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set. The past four years had the least April sea ice extent since records began in 1979, with 2007 having the least April sea ice extent on record. However, while the ice extent is not at a record low this year, the volume of the arctic sea ice is probably at a record low for April. The ice is exceptionally thin across the Arctic this winter, and the edge of this thin first-year ice extends beyond the North Pole.

I'll have more on Cyclone Nargis next week. The Southwest Monsoon has continued to push northward, and is expected to move into the cyclone-devastated region on Saturday, bringing heavy rains.

Jeff Masters

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703. StormJunkie
7:06 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Congrats on the new pc SH, what'd you get?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17267
702. stormhank
7:04 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Ty Terri n SJ :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1401
701. Drakoen
7:04 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
I would have liked to seen the ECMWF jump on the bandwagon, nevertheless its still something to continue to monitor with the GFS and maybe the ECWMF coming around when the system comes into a closer time frame.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32705
700. StormJunkie
7:02 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
All good TN and afternoon to ya :~)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17267
699. TerraNova
7:01 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
LOL sorry Sj :)
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
698. StormJunkie
7:00 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Dang it TN, you could have given me a second longer ☺
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17267
697. StormJunkie
7:00 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Well sh, you could not have set me up any better if you had been trying to...lol

Quick Links-models (including ECMWF), imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more all on one easy to navigate page.

Just go ahead and use it as a home page :~)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17267
696. TerraNova
6:59 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Here stormhank:
ECMWF
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
695. stormhank
6:57 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
fine ty...do you or anyone have a link to the ecmwf model? i got new pc and Im tryin to reload all the model links. thanks for any help
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1401
694. TerraNova
6:57 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
ECMWF 12z out 240 hours shows an area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean (marked by the yellow blob) but not much else.

Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
693. StormJunkie
6:55 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Good and yourself?

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17267
692. stormhank
6:53 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Hey SJ how have u been?
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1401
691. StormJunkie
6:49 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
SH, we are all in wait and see mode and the general consensus is that right now it should be taken only as a sign that things are starting to get riper for development.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17267
690. stormhank
6:48 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
hi all. Im still seeing that the GFS out 300 hrs shows a system in GOM ? I know this is out long range but seems to be consistent? anyone have any input on this?
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1401
689. StormJunkie
6:48 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Sure thing press, y'all enjoy! Be hard not to on a day like this!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17267
688. StormJunkie
6:47 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Ok, as Costanza would say

I'm out on a high note ☺

jk
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17267
687. presslord
6:46 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
SJ...What a gorgeous day in the Lowcountry...gonna go play on da boat wid da bride...may not even leave the dock...let's chat tomorrow AM...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10561
686. nash28
6:45 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Yeah Adrian. This sucks!! I'd welcome with open arms a tropical storm right now.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
685. ajcamsmom2
6:45 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
654. hurricane23 12:31 PM CDT on May 18, 2008
Thanks for the links, my kids will love them:)
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2533
684. hurricane23
6:44 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
We need some....



95 degrees curently outside man thats crazy hot!Looks like a dry week ahead for southeast florida with an omega blocking pattern setting up around mid week which will most likely keep south florida under some pretty strong subsidence.MORE HERE



Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13871
683. Drakoen
6:44 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
679. StormJunkie 6:40 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
final decades of the century

And y'all thought the GFS went long range! :~)

LOL...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32705
682. stormdude77
6:43 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
LOL SJ
681. nash28
6:42 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
LOL SJ!!!!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
680. IKE
6:42 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
LOL
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 38148
679. StormJunkie
6:40 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
final decades of the century

And y'all thought the GFS went long range! :~)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17267
678. nash28
6:40 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Presslord- That is absolutely correct. Warming ocean temps do the opposite of what many fear. It creates higher wind shear, thus ripping apart anything trying to develop.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
677. presslord
6:38 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Reuters:Atlantic cyclones may decrease as globe warms-study
Sun May 18, 2008 1:15pm EDT
12 May 2008

MIAMI (Reuters) - Fewer but more intense hurricanes may form in the Atlantic Ocean as the globe warms toward the end of this century, according to a new study that counters predictions of more frequent cyclones due to climate change.

The study, published on Sunday in Nature Geoscience, adds fuel to a fierce scientific debate over whether human-produced greenhouse gases have contributed to a recent rise in hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin and whether tropical cyclones are becoming stronger.

A simulation of Atlantic hurricane activity for the final decades of the century projected an 18 percent decrease in hurricanes and a 27 percent decrease in tropical storms, researchers at the U.S. government's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in New Jersey found.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10561
676. ajcamsmom2
6:38 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
All of these tropical update blogs are really a big help to me. I am learning so much, sometimes I still get mixed up or forget a part of the mix that can totally change a storms path...So, thanks all. I am hoping I don't really need my new laptop (pinky) this season...
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2533
675. StormJunkie
6:38 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Afternoon press (wumail for you)

Pedestrian friendly


Well said, and absolutely correct. Great post on the high Adrian.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17267
674. nash28
6:37 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Did I mention it was hot today? Well, it is. Washing both cars. Just finished one. I am gassed.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
673. stormdude77
6:32 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Hello everyone!

I've just updated my blog, I'll be providing ''tropical updates'' throughout the entire season, see my blog here...
672. IKE
6:32 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Bastardi thinks several areas of the US will be affected...

""Our forecast is that two or three storms will bring at least tropical storm force winds to the coastline between Florida and New England, including one or two that bring hurricane force winds, and one major hurricane," said Bastardi. "And, the Gulf of Mexico will have a normal distribution of tropical cyclone activity, with energy interests experiencing at least 7 to 10 days with disruptions or threats of disruptions. Specifically, the forecast is for two or three storms that affect the energy infrastructure in and around the Gulf and bring at least tropical storm force winds to the Gulf coast, including one or two that bring hurricane force winds.""
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 38148
671. ajcamsmom2
6:30 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
IpswichWeatherCenter
Nice blog, I like the way you are showing all areas. Lisa
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2533
670. hurricane23
6:28 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Not a problem glad to be able to provide to this great community. Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13871
669. ajcamsmom2
6:26 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
588. BahaHurican 10:08 AM CDT on May 18, 2008
Thanks, I love pinky...but, I do want to make sure she works well. I would hate to find myself in some hotel after having evaucated, without computer access 24/7 to see what is going on with my home/Parish.
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2533
668. presslord
6:25 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Hurricane 23...thanks for that clarity....would love to see more pedestrian friendly stuff like that here...is very helpful...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10561
667. Drakoen
6:25 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
665. TerraNova 6:24 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Still waiting for the new ECMWF...


That should be out in an hour...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32705
666. Drakoen
6:25 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
664. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 6:23 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
too many and all the same thing


Yes. Thats why I was thinking of continuing my Southeast Weather blog even in hurricane season along with a brief tropical update. Takes alot of time to put everything together though.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32705
665. TerraNova
6:24 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Still waiting for the new ECMWF...
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
664. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:23 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
too many and all the same thing
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 196 Comments: 63984
663. Drakoen
6:19 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
So many blogs about tropical weather...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32705
662. IpswichWeatherCenter
6:18 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
I have done a new blog... would be nice if you had a look. Some stuff about current Tropical weather.
Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
661. surfmom
6:12 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
along with all the trouble Dean caused (mosquito coast), he created THE BEST CHANNEL SWELL for waves in the Gomex on record!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
660. surfmom
6:09 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Nice work H23, a great way for me to explain this to my friends, especially the variables.

Aweatherlover -with all this wind can't figure why NO waves, oh well --anything in your neck of the woods??? I
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
659. KrazyKaneLove
6:06 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
yes thanks all for your patience with some of us less knowledgable folk. After 2004, and then last year, it seems to be an important factor. So the overall strength stays the same for an extended period of time, but it can shift around quite a bit through the season? Is that correct?
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
658. Stormchaser2007
6:06 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Wow that was quick......
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 16269
657. Drakoen
5:41 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Very nice post Adrian!
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32705
656. AWeatherLover
5:35 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Thanks for all that AB high info, very helpful.
Member Since: November 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 433
655. TerraNova
5:33 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Thanks H23!
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
654. hurricane23
5:31 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
Imagine the Bermuda High as an enormous blocking wall. Tropical cyclones will move along the southern side of this high pressure system until it finds the western side. This turn to the northeast usually occurs somewhere in the Caribbean. The position of the Bermuda High last year was farther south and west which, along with the building ridges that extended down into the GOM last year, carried the storms over Central America before the turn to the north took place.

Here's a small graphic concerning the BH.



As you can see from the graphic of the BH i posted above just a slight movement of the BH to the south and your turn to the north will be delayed so to speak, and landfall would be displaced to the west of Florida. The same goes if the BH in that image was more to the north. Your turn to the north and eventually to the northeast would be sooner, and Florida would have more of a heightened chance of being impacted. Of course, other steering patterns play a role in a tropical systems track.Tropical systems follow the least path of resistance, so even if the BH were to signify a panhandle landfall, you could have a building ridge that blocks northern movement and the system ends up moving westward towards Texas or Mexico. Using the same scenario of a building ridge, you could have a cut off low build up over Florida behind the ridge, creating a weakness that would draw the system northward towards Florida.

Here are a couple of animations that may help you under stand futher.

First animation

Second animation


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13871
653. IKE
5:23 PM GMT on May 18, 2008
12Z CMC..Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 38148

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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