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Cyclopsychic research breakthrough proves hurricanes/global warming connection

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on April 01, 2008

A stunning new breakthrough in hurricane research has conclusively settled the matter: global warming is making Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms more frequent. The new research, accepted for publication later this millennium in The Journal of Irreproducible Results, offers incontrovertible proof that global warming has increased Atlantic named storms by 57-67% over the past century. Using the pioneering new techniques of cyclopsychic storm detection and psychomortorodentiatempestology, the researchers, Professors Peter Webcaster and Judith Flurryfury of the Georgia Institute of Technophobia, and Dr. Greg Hallmonitor of the Colorado Association for Research and Modeling of the Atmosphere (CARMA), showed unequivocally that the lack of satellite measurements and aircraft reconnaissance in the early part of the hurricane record led to only a modest undercount of Atlantic tropical storms. Thus, more than half of the observed increase in named storms in the past century can be attributed to global warming.

"It's well-known that the number of Atlantic named storms has risen from 7-9 per year 100 years ago to 14-15 per year during the present active hurricane period that began in 1995," commented Professor Webcaster in an interview today. "Some MEEAT-loving hurricane researchers (Measure Everything, Everywhere, All the Time) have claimed that this rise was not real, since satellites and reconnaissance aircraft were not around to detect storms early in the hurricane record. We've made efforts in the past to quantify the number of 'missed' historical Atlantic storms using estimates of historical shipping traffic density, and computer regression models that compare recent well-observed storm activity to past storm activity. However, these studies have been pooh-poohed by the MEEAT men, who refuse to believe any science that comes out of a model. So, I began thinking about how we could actually go about observing historical Atlantic storms that were 'missed'. I began thinking the problem in a new light after watching my favorite episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, "Timescape", where subspace entity mistakenly lays her eggs in the warp core singularity of a Romulan warship, creating a temporal anomaly that forces time to flow backwards. This inspired me to think outside the box, and it occurred to me that paranormal methods might offer a way to see back in time and make actual observations of past storms--and offer a technophobic solution to the problem, as encouraged by the charter of my university, the Georgia Institute of Technophobia."

Figure 1. Cyclopsychic observations of "missing" Atlantic tropical storms during the 20th century. All observations were performed by trained cyclopsychic Madame Cyclotropia. Note the significant drop in "missed" storms beginning in the 1940s, corresponding to the advent of aircraft reconnaissance, and in the 1970s, when satellite coverage of the Atlantic Ocean began.

Webcaster teamed with Hallmonitor and Flurryfury to experiment with a variety of paranormal techniques to make actual observations of past "missing" storms, using Ouija Boards, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. Initial experiments proved discouraging, though, when the researchers attempted to perform the study themselves. "We were feeling depressed about how the research was going, having just stayed up late one Friday night in Greg's lab in Boulder trying to get the dang Magic Eight Ball to say something other than just REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN LATER," related Dr. Webcaster. "So, we decided to give up for the night and down a few shots of grape jello spiked with grain alcohol and delve into Greg's extensive collection of Zippy the Pinhead comic books. After a few jello shots and Zippy comics, we got feeling pretty loose, and, Yow! Decided to trek down to Pearl Street to check out the weekend psychic fair. Well, we got to staggering around the tents of the psychic fair, belting out the sorrowful lyrics of our own version of "Somewhere over the rainbow" we made up:

Somewhere, over the ocean
Back in time
Cyclones formed and decayed
Unseen by humankind

Somehow, we'll find out how many
Before we die
But it doesn't look good
'Cause the Magic Eight Ball lies!

Suddenly, we saw a mysterious shadowy figure beckoning to us from the entrance of a nearby tent, which was emblazoned with the words, Madame Cyclotropia: Psychic Readings for Troubled Atmospheric Scientists. 'I can help you find your missing storms', the seer in the shadows croaked, 'for I know much that is hidden. Come into my lair, and I will reveal the key to unlocking the mysteries of storms long past'. Greg and I looked at each other, shrugged, walked in her tent, and the rest is history."

Once in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, the researchers quickly realized that their limited scientific training could not hope to allow them to conduct rigorous paranormal research. Only a true cyclopsychic with "The Gift" could see back into the dim mists of time to divine the existence of heretofore unknown tropical cyclones. Using her cyclopsychic gift, Madame Cyclotropia correctly divined the past tracks of numerous known storms the scientists challenged her with. However, when asked to divine the existence of "missing" Atlantic storms that had not made it into the official database, she prophesied that she would only be able to do so if the scientists would write her into their latest grant proposal. This grant proposal would surely get funded, she predicted. The scientists eagerly agreed, and headed back to the lab to work on the new proposal.

Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury's proposal, titled, "Using a Trained Cyclopsychic to Divine Past Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity", was submitted to the Foundation for Atmospheric Research for Science and Education (FARSE) in early 2007 and accepted later that year. After receiving their grant money, the scientists began spending long nights in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, documenting her revelations from the four primary cyclopsychic techniques: Ouija Board, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. According to Dr. Hallmonitor, "We were thrilled when the first three techniques we tried all yielded virtually identical results, showing the robustness of our experimental methodology. The three techniques all showed a noticeable drop in the number of "missed" storms in the 1940s, when aircraft reconnaissance became available, and in the 1970s, when satellites coverage began over the Atlantic Ocean. However, when we tried to channel restless dead spirits, we ran into a roadblock. We couldn't find any restless dead spirits with an interest or knowledge of historical Atlantic hurricanes. We happily attributed this to the propensity of dead meteorologists to wind up inside Heaven's Pearly Gates, but were sad that our research would lack this crucial final proof of its validity. We were about to give up when Peter then hit upon the idea of contacting the spirits of groundhogs, who are known for their weather prognosticating ability. Some of these prognosticating rodents might have unfinished business that would keep their restless souls adrift in the ether, available for consultation on weather-related matters. We coined word psychomortorodentiatempestology to describe this exciting new branch of hurricane science, and set off in search of gifted groundhogs spirits with this special skill."

Figure 2. Wee Willy One and Chucky before their departure into the hereafter. Which rodent's spirit would you trust to get accurate weather information from?

Indeed, Madame Cyclotropia was able to contact the spirit of "Wee Willy One", a famed albino groundhog that had once burrowed under the fair gardens of Wiarton, Ontario, and provided weather forecasts each Groundhog's Day up until his death in 2006. Wee Willy One proved to be testy and uncooperative, though, deliberately delivering incorrect storm information. The researchers sought out help from cyclotherapy experts from the Center for Disease Control's Weather Related Illness Division to determine if cyclotherapy might help Wee Willy One overcome his bad attitude. Cyclotherapist Dr. Sandy Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One as a cyclopath suffering from rare form of cyclopsychosis. Ordinarily, cyclopsychosis manifests itself only in hurricane scientists and weather enthusiasts during the long, dull months prior to hurricane season. The despondent victims of cyclopsychosis spend long hours in front of flickering computer monitors in dark, gloomy rooms, obsessively poring over maps and statistics of hurricanes long gone by. The victims tend to become highly antisocial but never violent, and can be successfully treated with cycloactive drugs. However, Dr. Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One with an extremely rare case of "shadow" cyclopsychosis, brought on by the cyclological trauma being rudely hauled out of his burrow each February 2 so that a bunch of cockamaimie humans could see whether he saw his shadow or not. "Shadow" cyclopsychosis is incurable, both in this world and the hereafter, so Madame Cyclotropia was forced to seek out other groundhog spirits. After months of effort, she finally found the spirit of "Chucky", a friendly groundhog that had once burrowed under the gardens of Nashville, Tennessee. Chucky eagerly provided accurate information on the "missing" Atlantic tropical storms that was precisely in agreement with the data collected from the other cyclopsychic techniques. "We were ecstatic," exclaimed Dr. Hallmonitor. "More jello shots!"

Hurricane experts world-wide are hailing the new findings. "These exciting results conclusively prove that even us blind squirrels can find some nuts," enthused renown hurricane expert, Dr. Kerry Readthemanual of the Massachusetts Institute of Technophobia. Dr. Readthemanual has been a leading proponent of the global warming/Atlantic hurricane link. Even former critics are praising the new findings. Dr. William Graymatter, Professor Über-Emeritus of Colorado State University's Center for Hurricane Observation, Measurement, and Prediction (CHOMP), said in an interview: "I've been in the hurricane business for 113 years, and I know good research when I see it. The findings of Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury are based on solid observational evidence and white magic. There's no black magic involved, such as the use of a computer model, so their results are impregnable."

Dr. Chris Blandsee, Chief Scientist of the Natural Hurricane Center's division of Global Warming Isn't Responsible for the Recent Upswing in Atlantic Hurricane Activity, and Even If It Was, We Wouldn't be Able to Tell, Since the Quality of the Atlantic Hurricane Database is Too Poor to Use for Such Purposes (NHC/GWIRRUAHAEIIWWWATSQAHDTPUSP), has also been critical of past research showing a link between hurricanes and global warming, maintaining that global warming isn't responsible for the recent upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity, and even if it was, we wouldn't be able to tell, since the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database is too poor to use for such purposes. It was his Congressional testimony, along with that of former NHC director Max Minefield, which inspired President Bushwhacker's administration to rename the National Hurricane Center the "Natural Hurricane Center" last year. (This action was also urged by the Government Anagram Accountability Office (GAAO), which found that the letters in "National Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to spell the ominous phrase, "Errant Herculean Inaction"--and also the disturbing, "Teenier Charlatan Unicorn", and the clearly unacceptable, "Inhale Cocaine, Errant Runt!", while the letters in "Natural Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to form phrases much more in harmony with the NHC mission, such as "Natural, Neater, Crunchier.")

Dr. Blandsee grudgingly gave ground in his comments today. "It looks like Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury (and don't try to say her name three times fast) have done some pretty rigorous scientific work," he conceded. "But they've written what is probably the longest and most excruciatingly dull hurricane science paper of all time. All those old storms and their analyzed tracks that they talk about, on and on and on, year by year by year. Ugh! A lot of good trees died to publish that paper. It was even duller than some of my clunkers!"

What's next for the pioneering researchers? "Well, CARMA and the Georgia Institute of Technophobia are collaborating on a grant proposal with Dr. Graymatter and Phil Flossblack of CHOMP to apply cyclopsychic methods in a new way--improvement of seasonal hurricane forecasts," said Dr. Flurryfury. "We've submitted a proposal to FARSE titled, 'Gray Magic: Using Cyclopsychic Methods to Improve Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts'. Lord knows, the forecast busts of the past two hurricane seasons have shown that Flossblack and Dr. Graymatter could use some supernatural help with their predictions."

April Fools!
Meff Jasters

Hallmonitor, G.J., and P.J. Webcaster, 2007, "Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?" Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A 365, Number 1860, 15 November 2007, Pages: 26952716 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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558. GeoffreyWPB
11:49 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
ENSO may determine the strength..but steering currents are...right now...pointing right towards the CONUS
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557. Ivansrvivr
3:50 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Goodnite all.
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556. Ivansrvivr
3:45 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Track of Jeanne was totally influenced by Ivan and Vice-Versa later. Track of Ivan was unbelievable. Ivan blocked then drew Jeanne north then as Ivan weakened Jeanne turned west. The Path of ivan from the lowest lattitudes of the tropical Atlantic then looping back into GOM for 2nd time was unheard of(when it was affected by Jeanne).
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554. GeoffreyWPB
11:48 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
Shear can change in a heartbeat...We all learned that!
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553. Michfan
3:45 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
None of us really know because alot of the patterns won't set up more clearly till around May albeit there are some small factors that we can peer into to make guesses on. I think a neutral ENSO is going to a major factor into how this year plays out in comparison to the last two.
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551. GeoffreyWPB
11:45 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
I agree with Ivan...be cautious
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550. Ivansrvivr
3:42 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
There is nothing unusual about shear being that high this time of year. Any lower and we'd be headed for another 05
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549. GeoffreyWPB
11:42 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
From all i studied and learned from here...Florida will be hit this year
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548. stormdude77
11:42 PM AST on April 03, 2008
Anyway, I'm heading out for the night... See you guys, later!
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547. GeoffreyWPB
11:40 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
That was a once in a lifetime thing Ivan....Just the track of Jeanne was something unbelievable...
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546. Ivansrvivr
3:41 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Remember that Fl was spared a major for almost 20 yrs in 70's thru 92. Still it is best to prep like this is the year.
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545. Tazmanian
8:35 PM PDT on April 03, 2008

ues the cimss wind shear maps not that one

all so the wind shear is runing from 30 to 90kt

seen like wind shear is lower then it was last year at this time


in the Caribbean the wind shear is 30kt

in the Central Atlantic wind shear is 30kt to 70kt

in the gulf of MX wind shear is 40kt

in the North Atlantic the wind shear is 90kt to 100kt
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544. Ivansrvivr
3:37 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Actually the odds of cat 3 conditions hitting any specific location in a given year are extremely low. I'd say less than 2% for Florida. Lower elsewhere. That's why Frances and Jeanne in same location was 1 in million scenario.
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543. GeoffreyWPB
11:38 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
absoutely right ivan...that is why not til august or september we concentrate that way
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542. Ivansrvivr
3:34 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
77, go back to post 474.

Remember that upper winds are usually raging across the tropical Atlantic this time of year. That is why we don't get cape verde storms till august usually.
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541. GeoffreyWPB
11:34 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
I agree it's the Bermuda High..and right now..it is setting up to send any organized system right to florida
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540. Ivansrvivr
3:29 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
STL, when I mentioned unexpected La Nina pattern, It was understood that it was a pattern strong enough to have an impact. I had explained in previous post that weaker enso cycles have little impact on bermuda high.
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539. GeoffreyWPB
11:30 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
Ivan is right JFV...we have to be really prepared the year as compared to the last two...odds are..sadly...our area will be hit by a major.
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538. stormdude77
11:27 PM AST on April 03, 2008
Guys is it true that wind shear values all throughout the basin are begining to drop noticeably already?

Well, By looking at this, I would say shear is still above normal in the Atlantic (Normal for this time, of the year)...
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537. Ivansrvivr
3:23 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
JFV, shear values over the Atl are lower than average and trending lower but that means very little now. If that trend continues another month it will be worrisome but much can change between now and then. (I personally don't think it will change but that is only an opinion among millions) There are far more conditions(moisture,SSTs,triggers) necessary for tropical development and then steering has to push development towards you. It is far to early to tell what will happen this season.
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536. GeoffreyWPB
11:26 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
JFV..you have to be ready! You were on last year and kept up...Have your shutter checked if you stay...have a battery tv...etc...If a Cat. 5....leave town!
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535. stormdude77
11:26 PM AST on April 03, 2008
Good night, Pottery!
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531. GeoffreyWPB
11:21 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
To early to tell JFV...wait another month and let's see what is happening
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530. pottery
11:20 PM AST on April 03, 2008
Well, its 11:22 here guys and dolls ( any dolls ? )
See how things look in the morning.
Nitey nite.
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529. stormdude77
11:21 PM AST on April 03, 2008
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528. GeoffreyWPB
11:20 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
Still to early to call folks...Evening JFV
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526. Ivansrvivr
3:13 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
(the strength of the high is important).

Last season the Bermuda high was very strong and positioned over Tennessee/Kentucky area. The circulation around the high which would usually be moist gulfstream air was dry air off the "great plains" and had cold core ULLs that got pulled east out of canada then south over the C Atl. That was not ideal situation for tropical development.
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524. stormdude77
11:15 PM AST on April 03, 2008
I'm afraid that if neutral conditions form, (shear will be below average), and given the right conditions, we're in for trouble.
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523. GeoffreyWPB
11:13 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
Well first, thanks for saying "Hi" neighbor...
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522. stormdude77
11:12 PM AST on April 03, 2008
Excellent post, Ivan (Number 520)... well said...
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521. Michfan
3:08 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
The stronger the high is in millibars the less likely it is to get eroded by a trough and to continue steering storms to the west. A weaker high results in the typical recurvature that we see with storms being "fish" storms that turn before coming close to the CONUS. The A/B high is the seasons X Factor.
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520. Ivansrvivr
3:01 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
I will address the predictions of last year. Go back to Drakoens average shear indicator for this year. Last year it was doing just the opposite. It was above normal.
There was also an unexpected La Nina pattern emerging which shifted the Bermuda high west and strengthened it dramatically. The farther west Bermuda high pulled dry air and coldcore ULL's around it's backside. That was the inhibiting factor in last year's tropical season and also the reason the storms that developed moved south and west towards Mexico and Central America. The dry air caused the storms that developed to be smaller sized than normal. That was the same high that caused the drought in the southeast U.S.
Last years La Nina is fading and indicators are pointing to an El Nino pattern in the long term. That would mean this season would be "ENSO" neutral. That factor alone would cause a radical shift in number and tracks of potential storms. Last year at this time there were no indicators pointing to the strong La Nina pattern that was about to emerge. that is why the preseason forecasts were wrong last year.
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519. Michfan
3:06 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
I find this article highly ironic considering the subject matter and its date:


Carvill Report Indicates "Bermuda High" is Crucial Hurricane Factor

March 29, 2005

The ReAdvisory group of Carvill, a leading specialty reinsurance intermediary, has released a white paper, which concludes that the location of the "Bermuda High" pressure system is crucial in determining whether a hurricane will make landfall along the east coast of the U.S.

The bulletin noted that Dr. Steve Smith, an atmospheric physicist and Vice President of ReAdvisory, has been researching weather phenomena for 11 years. He recently examined industry reports that explore the incidence rate of landfalling hurricanes, and found these reports have not been inclusive in predicting when a hurricane is more likely to make landfall. "A reliable warning system could play a major role in determining the timing of buying and selling exposure," Dr. Smith stated. "The Bermuda High is a weather system, and as such is predictable at least five days into the future. Even though it is implicitly included in forecasts of hurricane tracks, registering the position, presence or absence of the Bermuda High alone provides a strong indication of the potential for landfalls by identified hurricane activity."

Dr. Smith explained that according to his studies "the Bermuda High pressure system seems to act as a 'goalkeeper'; during the 2000-2002 period, it was doing a good job deflecting hurricanes away from the U.S. east coast. But during 2004 (and 2003) it was out of position, allowing hurricanes through. Understanding the role of the Bermuda High, and knowing whether that system is in place, is a critical factor in predicting what could happen next."

The report closely follows the release of ReAdvisory's "2004 Hurricane Season in Review" white paper, and is the second in a series of papers designed to provide better understanding of what the future could hold in terms of hurricane incidence, landfall and economic impact.

The "Hurricane Landfalls and the Bermuda High" white paper is available online at www.carvill.com.
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518. pottery
11:06 PM AST on April 03, 2008
Thanks, Dude.
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517. pottery
11:02 PM AST on April 03, 2008
Thanks, Ivan and Mitch. Appreciated.
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516. stormdude77
10:59 PM AST on April 03, 2008
I'm not sure, Pottery! But trofs erode the high (the strength of the high is important).
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515. GeoffreyWPB
10:57 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
We are neighbors Ivan! I live in Palm Springs also. I was not talking about you. Having a roof ripped off and watching the rain and wind come in while you cover your puppy in the bathroom is an experience to remember..and then relocatng for five months, living in a crappy motel that fema does not even cover...and have someone compare losing lights labeling themsselves as a survivor....That is a disgrace to the real people who suffered like you and I and the countless others who suffer Mother Nature's wrath.
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514. pottery
10:55 PM AST on April 03, 2008
Yeah, I remember those predictions WPB, but I never took them too seriously.
I find the current conditions are a little different to those that applied in '07 though.
Having said that, I am not an expert by and means, and I have no experience at all, in what makes the GOM do what it does. I am an Island man, and from where I sit the Atlantic is my concern.
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513. Michfan
2:56 AM GMT on April 04, 2008

Animations showing how the Bermuda High interacted in 2004 and 2005 causing so many US Landfalls.
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512. Ivansrvivr
2:57 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
The Bermuda high is the "X-factor" every year. It is different every year. Strong La nina draws it west(like last year it was too far west and drew dry continental air into the tropics) Strong El Nino tends to leave a weaker bermuda high father east like 06. Weaker El Nino, Neutral, or La Nina cycles have little impact on the Bermuda High and it is hard to predict year to year.
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511. Ivansrvivr
2:53 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
At the time of Ivan I lived in P'Cola. Now I live the north end of Palm Springs.
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510. Michfan
2:48 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Well the thing is are we seeing the same conditions now that we saw last year? If i remember correctly last year at this time there was more of a Saharan Air Layer and less of an SST anomaly on the African Coast than we are seeing now.
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509. pottery
10:52 PM AST on April 03, 2008
Stormdude, what are the mechanics controlling the location of the Bermuda high ? Is it predictable in any way, do you know ??
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508. GeoffreyWPB
10:53 PM EDT on April 03, 2008
Ivan...please read my original post just a few down...
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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