Cyclopsychic research breakthrough proves hurricanes/global warming connection

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on April 01, 2008

A stunning new breakthrough in hurricane research has conclusively settled the matter: global warming is making Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms more frequent. The new research, accepted for publication later this millennium in The Journal of Irreproducible Results, offers incontrovertible proof that global warming has increased Atlantic named storms by 57-67% over the past century. Using the pioneering new techniques of cyclopsychic storm detection and psychomortorodentiatempestology, the researchers, Professors Peter Webcaster and Judith Flurryfury of the Georgia Institute of Technophobia, and Dr. Greg Hallmonitor of the Colorado Association for Research and Modeling of the Atmosphere (CARMA), showed unequivocally that the lack of satellite measurements and aircraft reconnaissance in the early part of the hurricane record led to only a modest undercount of Atlantic tropical storms. Thus, more than half of the observed increase in named storms in the past century can be attributed to global warming.

"It's well-known that the number of Atlantic named storms has risen from 7-9 per year 100 years ago to 14-15 per year during the present active hurricane period that began in 1995," commented Professor Webcaster in an interview today. "Some MEEAT-loving hurricane researchers (Measure Everything, Everywhere, All the Time) have claimed that this rise was not real, since satellites and reconnaissance aircraft were not around to detect storms early in the hurricane record. We've made efforts in the past to quantify the number of 'missed' historical Atlantic storms using estimates of historical shipping traffic density, and computer regression models that compare recent well-observed storm activity to past storm activity. However, these studies have been pooh-poohed by the MEEAT men, who refuse to believe any science that comes out of a model. So, I began thinking about how we could actually go about observing historical Atlantic storms that were 'missed'. I began thinking the problem in a new light after watching my favorite episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, "Timescape", where subspace entity mistakenly lays her eggs in the warp core singularity of a Romulan warship, creating a temporal anomaly that forces time to flow backwards. This inspired me to think outside the box, and it occurred to me that paranormal methods might offer a way to see back in time and make actual observations of past storms--and offer a technophobic solution to the problem, as encouraged by the charter of my university, the Georgia Institute of Technophobia."

Figure 1. Cyclopsychic observations of "missing" Atlantic tropical storms during the 20th century. All observations were performed by trained cyclopsychic Madame Cyclotropia. Note the significant drop in "missed" storms beginning in the 1940s, corresponding to the advent of aircraft reconnaissance, and in the 1970s, when satellite coverage of the Atlantic Ocean began.

Webcaster teamed with Hallmonitor and Flurryfury to experiment with a variety of paranormal techniques to make actual observations of past "missing" storms, using Ouija Boards, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. Initial experiments proved discouraging, though, when the researchers attempted to perform the study themselves. "We were feeling depressed about how the research was going, having just stayed up late one Friday night in Greg's lab in Boulder trying to get the dang Magic Eight Ball to say something other than just REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN LATER," related Dr. Webcaster. "So, we decided to give up for the night and down a few shots of grape jello spiked with grain alcohol and delve into Greg's extensive collection of Zippy the Pinhead comic books. After a few jello shots and Zippy comics, we got feeling pretty loose, and, Yow! Decided to trek down to Pearl Street to check out the weekend psychic fair. Well, we got to staggering around the tents of the psychic fair, belting out the sorrowful lyrics of our own version of "Somewhere over the rainbow" we made up:

Somewhere, over the ocean
Back in time
Cyclones formed and decayed
Unseen by humankind

Somehow, we'll find out how many
Before we die
But it doesn't look good
'Cause the Magic Eight Ball lies!

Suddenly, we saw a mysterious shadowy figure beckoning to us from the entrance of a nearby tent, which was emblazoned with the words, Madame Cyclotropia: Psychic Readings for Troubled Atmospheric Scientists. 'I can help you find your missing storms', the seer in the shadows croaked, 'for I know much that is hidden. Come into my lair, and I will reveal the key to unlocking the mysteries of storms long past'. Greg and I looked at each other, shrugged, walked in her tent, and the rest is history."

Once in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, the researchers quickly realized that their limited scientific training could not hope to allow them to conduct rigorous paranormal research. Only a true cyclopsychic with "The Gift" could see back into the dim mists of time to divine the existence of heretofore unknown tropical cyclones. Using her cyclopsychic gift, Madame Cyclotropia correctly divined the past tracks of numerous known storms the scientists challenged her with. However, when asked to divine the existence of "missing" Atlantic storms that had not made it into the official database, she prophesied that she would only be able to do so if the scientists would write her into their latest grant proposal. This grant proposal would surely get funded, she predicted. The scientists eagerly agreed, and headed back to the lab to work on the new proposal.

Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury's proposal, titled, "Using a Trained Cyclopsychic to Divine Past Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity", was submitted to the Foundation for Atmospheric Research for Science and Education (FARSE) in early 2007 and accepted later that year. After receiving their grant money, the scientists began spending long nights in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, documenting her revelations from the four primary cyclopsychic techniques: Ouija Board, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. According to Dr. Hallmonitor, "We were thrilled when the first three techniques we tried all yielded virtually identical results, showing the robustness of our experimental methodology. The three techniques all showed a noticeable drop in the number of "missed" storms in the 1940s, when aircraft reconnaissance became available, and in the 1970s, when satellites coverage began over the Atlantic Ocean. However, when we tried to channel restless dead spirits, we ran into a roadblock. We couldn't find any restless dead spirits with an interest or knowledge of historical Atlantic hurricanes. We happily attributed this to the propensity of dead meteorologists to wind up inside Heaven's Pearly Gates, but were sad that our research would lack this crucial final proof of its validity. We were about to give up when Peter then hit upon the idea of contacting the spirits of groundhogs, who are known for their weather prognosticating ability. Some of these prognosticating rodents might have unfinished business that would keep their restless souls adrift in the ether, available for consultation on weather-related matters. We coined word psychomortorodentiatempestology to describe this exciting new branch of hurricane science, and set off in search of gifted groundhogs spirits with this special skill."

Figure 2. Wee Willy One and Chucky before their departure into the hereafter. Which rodent's spirit would you trust to get accurate weather information from?

Indeed, Madame Cyclotropia was able to contact the spirit of "Wee Willy One", a famed albino groundhog that had once burrowed under the fair gardens of Wiarton, Ontario, and provided weather forecasts each Groundhog's Day up until his death in 2006. Wee Willy One proved to be testy and uncooperative, though, deliberately delivering incorrect storm information. The researchers sought out help from cyclotherapy experts from the Center for Disease Control's Weather Related Illness Division to determine if cyclotherapy might help Wee Willy One overcome his bad attitude. Cyclotherapist Dr. Sandy Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One as a cyclopath suffering from rare form of cyclopsychosis. Ordinarily, cyclopsychosis manifests itself only in hurricane scientists and weather enthusiasts during the long, dull months prior to hurricane season. The despondent victims of cyclopsychosis spend long hours in front of flickering computer monitors in dark, gloomy rooms, obsessively poring over maps and statistics of hurricanes long gone by. The victims tend to become highly antisocial but never violent, and can be successfully treated with cycloactive drugs. However, Dr. Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One with an extremely rare case of "shadow" cyclopsychosis, brought on by the cyclological trauma being rudely hauled out of his burrow each February 2 so that a bunch of cockamaimie humans could see whether he saw his shadow or not. "Shadow" cyclopsychosis is incurable, both in this world and the hereafter, so Madame Cyclotropia was forced to seek out other groundhog spirits. After months of effort, she finally found the spirit of "Chucky", a friendly groundhog that had once burrowed under the gardens of Nashville, Tennessee. Chucky eagerly provided accurate information on the "missing" Atlantic tropical storms that was precisely in agreement with the data collected from the other cyclopsychic techniques. "We were ecstatic," exclaimed Dr. Hallmonitor. "More jello shots!"

Hurricane experts world-wide are hailing the new findings. "These exciting results conclusively prove that even us blind squirrels can find some nuts," enthused renown hurricane expert, Dr. Kerry Readthemanual of the Massachusetts Institute of Technophobia. Dr. Readthemanual has been a leading proponent of the global warming/Atlantic hurricane link. Even former critics are praising the new findings. Dr. William Graymatter, Professor Über-Emeritus of Colorado State University's Center for Hurricane Observation, Measurement, and Prediction (CHOMP), said in an interview: "I've been in the hurricane business for 113 years, and I know good research when I see it. The findings of Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury are based on solid observational evidence and white magic. There's no black magic involved, such as the use of a computer model, so their results are impregnable."

Dr. Chris Blandsee, Chief Scientist of the Natural Hurricane Center's division of Global Warming Isn't Responsible for the Recent Upswing in Atlantic Hurricane Activity, and Even If It Was, We Wouldn't be Able to Tell, Since the Quality of the Atlantic Hurricane Database is Too Poor to Use for Such Purposes (NHC/GWIRRUAHAEIIWWWATSQAHDTPUSP), has also been critical of past research showing a link between hurricanes and global warming, maintaining that global warming isn't responsible for the recent upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity, and even if it was, we wouldn't be able to tell, since the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database is too poor to use for such purposes. It was his Congressional testimony, along with that of former NHC director Max Minefield, which inspired President Bushwhacker's administration to rename the National Hurricane Center the "Natural Hurricane Center" last year. (This action was also urged by the Government Anagram Accountability Office (GAAO), which found that the letters in "National Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to spell the ominous phrase, "Errant Herculean Inaction"--and also the disturbing, "Teenier Charlatan Unicorn", and the clearly unacceptable, "Inhale Cocaine, Errant Runt!", while the letters in "Natural Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to form phrases much more in harmony with the NHC mission, such as "Natural, Neater, Crunchier.")

Dr. Blandsee grudgingly gave ground in his comments today. "It looks like Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury (and don't try to say her name three times fast) have done some pretty rigorous scientific work," he conceded. "But they've written what is probably the longest and most excruciatingly dull hurricane science paper of all time. All those old storms and their analyzed tracks that they talk about, on and on and on, year by year by year. Ugh! A lot of good trees died to publish that paper. It was even duller than some of my clunkers!"

What's next for the pioneering researchers? "Well, CARMA and the Georgia Institute of Technophobia are collaborating on a grant proposal with Dr. Graymatter and Phil Flossblack of CHOMP to apply cyclopsychic methods in a new way--improvement of seasonal hurricane forecasts," said Dr. Flurryfury. "We've submitted a proposal to FARSE titled, 'Gray Magic: Using Cyclopsychic Methods to Improve Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts'. Lord knows, the forecast busts of the past two hurricane seasons have shown that Flossblack and Dr. Graymatter could use some supernatural help with their predictions."

April Fools!
Meff Jasters

Hallmonitor, G.J., and P.J. Webcaster, 2007, "Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?" Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A 365, Number 1860, 15 November 2007, Pages: 26952716 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 658 - 608

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

658. Ivansrvivr
6:24 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
My guess on numbers of named storms(not as important as many claim) is posted on my blog. I expect avg to slightly above avg. (not 17-20 as many are predicting) I do expect a tendency for more majors and larger sized storms. Steering is the key, though.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
657. moonlightcowboy
1:23 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
....uuuuugggghhh, '04 - not good! Of course, as Adrian likes to recant - it only takes ONE storm! And, what's bad is that with '06 and '07 being somewhat weaker than expected, it makes me weary that folks let their guards down somewhat - and not preparing as they should.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
656. hahaguy
1:24 AM EST on April 04, 2008
im just thankful frances wasnt a 4 when it hit me
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
655. Ivansrvivr
6:21 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
04 was weak El Nino yr. I believe 08 will be same. I went against everyone predicting the La Nina would be neutral to Nina during season and now all the forecasters and models are with me. That hints at 04
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
654. moonlightcowboy
1:21 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
It will definitely be interesting again this year, fellas! I know last year, the pre-season estimates for number of named storms was a bit high.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
653. moonlightcowboy
1:20 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
Have a good sleep, Kori!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
652. hahaguy
1:19 AM EST on April 04, 2008
u r rite ivan yikes i dont want to think about 04
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
651. Ivansrvivr
6:17 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Haha, I picked a slightly later date due to cooler SST's in the Carribean. June20, landfall in big bend area,75 mph, 4 days. I think. Something like that.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
650. Ivansrvivr
6:13 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
MLC, note the warmer waters in the E-Pac. That indicates a weakening Nina. That will lessen the tradewinds and reduce upwelling. I wouldn't be surprised if the TCHP blows up quickly in the Carrib. still I don't think the season will have a super early start. More like 04. In fact I think 04 may be model yr for this yr(Yikes!!!)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
649. hahaguy
1:13 AM EST on April 04, 2008
ya ivan i chose may29 hit west coast of fl stick around for 4 days and hit at 65mph lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
6:10 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
iam outta here catch ya later mlc ivan and anyone else except mich
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
647. Ivansrvivr
6:09 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Hg has a neat game going in his site. it started with just the date of first storm. Then I suggested we spice it up a bit. We threw some different ideas together and now it is date formed, how many days, and landfall of first storm.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
646. moonlightcowboy
1:09 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
Gotcha, Ivan, I'll be looking and studying that! Thanks for the tip.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
645. Ivansrvivr
6:06 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
MLC, I believe the cool SSTs are attributed to the strong bermuda high/La nina strengthened tradewinds. That will change very quickly going into April. A look at the other side of S.America is sign of what's in the Carrib's future.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
644. moonlightcowboy
1:05 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
It's going to be interesting to see what happens. SST's can warm up fairly quickly and TCHP, too. What will really be interesting to watch is how strong the B/A high is this season and those troughs dipping down. I'll have to check out HG's site! Yeah, it doesn't look like we'll get a May storm this year; but, gosh, who really knows - gets weird sometimes! lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
643. moonlightcowboy
1:04 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
I think I'm going to save the pics of those, and update them each week to see how they progress towards the season.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
642. Ivansrvivr
6:02 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
MLC the cool SSTs are why I picked a later date for HG's guessing contest.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
641. moonlightcowboy
12:58 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
SST's still cool.

TCHP has a long way to go it looks like right now.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
640. Ivansrvivr
5:58 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
No problem MLC, I believe it should put to rest anymore voices who question my use of "survivor" term which is one I do not take lightly. There have been a few who have today. I hope that post puts things into perspective.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
639. Michfan
5:58 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Good story Ivan.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
638. Ivansrvivr
5:55 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Michfan that is same thing I said in 624 just simplified. Opal's NE motion also kept more damage along the coast while Ivan's almost due north track drove damaging winds well inland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5:56 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
take a shot get a shot
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
636. hahaguy
12:53 AM EST on April 04, 2008
wow that is horrifying
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
635. moonlightcowboy
12:54 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
Some story, Ivan. Thanks for sharing.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
634. Michfan
5:53 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Wow KOTG. I wasn't even that harsh about your grammar. I said i was joking around. Relax man.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
633. moonlightcowboy
12:53 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
LOL, Kori - Michfan, Kori and I both suggest not doing that again! Lucky you weren't seriously hurt!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
632. Ivansrvivr
5:48 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Here's Ivan from someone's perspective who covers almost every hurricane that hits the U.S:

The 2007 hurricane season is here, and although we never know what the season will bring, we always need to be prepared. Doing it now will save you a lot of time and energy later. I encourage everyone who lives in a hurricane-prone state to get ready now, because if we've learned anything over the past couple of years, it's that lives and property can be saved if we do the right things.

Thinking about this season got me thinking about past seasons. Covering hurricanes on location can be a tough job but also a rewarding one. The long hours you work and the horrible weather conditions are all worth it when somebody comes up to you and says "thanks for being here". Many people I talk to say that The Weather Channel is sometimes their only means of information when a storm hits. Usually electricity goes out, so there is no TV, but locals always have a charged up cell phone to call relatives in other states to tell them they're ok. They've often told me that they get a weather briefing from their relatives who are watching The Weather Channel. It makes me feel good to hear that.

The other day someone asked me what's the worst hurricane I've ever been in. I've been asked this question before, A LOT! My answer is always the same, Hurricane Ivan. I was in Pensacola to cover Ivan in September 2004. Ivan was physically an enormous hurricane. It made landfall as a category 3 with 115mph winds and a tremendous storm surge. I can honestly say that in all of my years covering extreme weather I've never really be scared. Ivan changed that. We were stuck in the eyewall of Ivan for 6 hours. It mad landfall at night, which made it even worse. It was pitch black outside and the roar of the hurricane was almost deafening. Around 1:00am the weather got too bad for us to broadcast, so we decided to head back to our hotel for the night. We were maybe 100 yards from or hotel but that was the most frightening 100 yard sprint I've ever done. Debris was flying all over the place! As I got to the hotel, I stopped and peeked around the corner of the building to make sure no debris was coming. My jaw dropped as a vending machine went tumbling right past me! I realized that I was in trouble. I needed to make it up to the 3rd floor where my room was. The rooms all had outside entrances. I ran as fast as I could up the stairs and down the outdoor walkway toward my room. As I was running, the windows in the rooms were breaking. It was like being in an action movie! I only made it about halfway before I had to stop and take cover from the flying glass. Glass fell on my head and back but luckily I wasn't cut. I hopped up and ran the rest of the way to my room. Once I go there, I sat down in a chair, in the dark. I closed my eyes and took a deep breath. I got a strange sensation in my body like I was spinning or something. Opened my eyes and sat up. I realized that the hotel was swaying back and forth. That made me unbelievably nervous. I thought the building was going to collapse. It was a three story building made of cinder blocks. I called my producer Jim and told him we needed to get out of there. I remember him saying that there was no way he was going back outside. He stayed in his room with a mattress on top of him. I went back outside to try to find the satellite truck we were broadcasting from. I was going to sleep in it. I never found it, but our cameraman Dave was behind the hotel sleeping in his Suburban. He flashed his lights at me and I ran over and jumped inside. That was probably the scariest 10 minutes of my life! We rode out the rest of the storm in his SUV. I'll never forget it.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
630. Michfan
5:45 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
One thing that helped with Opal as well is that it hit farther east than Ivan did. Ivan brought together some unique circumstances that allowed it to do what it did to the Escambia Bay I-10 bridge. Opal had the potential to do the same thing had it landed further west.

I remember that storm surge that Opal kicked up on the west coast of Florida. I went body surfing as it was a Cat 4 in the Gulf because the waves were awesome from Tampa southward. I have a scar on my knee from being thrown onto a rock from a 6 foot wave. Never again.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
629. Ivansrvivr
5:46 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
I still feel like a freight train ran over me. which is 1000X better than yesterday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
628. Ivansrvivr
5:43 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
I can post a blog post from Mike Bettis from TWC about his Ivan experience and how it was the most frightening experience of his life. Funny thing is he was in same area as I was off Scenic Hwy.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
627. Michfan
5:42 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
That is going to make for some interesting intensification mechanics later this year if any storms make it into the Gulf mlc.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
626. moonlightcowboy
12:44 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
...tropical systems has taught me that each one is unique. No 2 are alike.

Absolutely, Ivan! Mo been giving you your meds? Feeling better?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
625. moonlightcowboy
12:42 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
QuickSCAT is still plugging away! Amazing! It's considerably outlived its expected use.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
624. Ivansrvivr
5:34 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
the difference between Opal and Ivan was that Pensacola was on spared the RFQ of Opal which was actually a stronger storm cat 4, but smaller in diameter. Small diameter storms tend to undergo much more rapid changes in strength than their larger cousins. Opal moved so rapidly that strength gained over the northern edge of the loop current wasn't lost before landfall. Opal's small size and rapid movement lessened the damage. People from the Gulf Breeze area (east of Pensacola) said that Opal was worse for them and farther east to Panama City but not as bad as Ivan was on Pensacola. My multiple experiences with tropical systems has taught me that each one is unique. No 2 are alike.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
623. Michfan
5:37 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Yeah Ivan i wish i still had the email that we got at our research lab detailing the story of one of the commander's who was in charge of the underground shelter on Pensacola NAS. The story in of itself was very harrowing and the damage at the Navy Research Lab was pretty bad. My in-laws live in Molino, FL Ivan and they have some good stories to tell as well. You definitely have my respect for riding it out.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
622. moonlightcowboy
12:41 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
Too, looking at that current, it looks quite large! Could mean for a huge ring adrift in the GOM later into the season.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
621. moonlightcowboy
12:36 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
Yeah, this thing is likely to pinch off in June or July.

From a past blog of Doctor Master's on the Loop Current Outlook.

Figure 1. The Loop Current flow northwards into the Gulf of Mexico. Every 6 - 11 months, a bulge in the current cuts off into a clockwise-rotating eddy that then drifts slowly west-southwestward towards Texas. Image credit: NOAA.

The Loop Current commonly bulges out in the northern Gulf of Mexico and sometimes will shed a clockwise rotating ring of warm water that separates from the main current (Figure 1). This ring of warm water slowly drifts west-southwestward towards Texas or Mexico at about 3-5 km per day. This feature is called a "Loop Current Ring", "Loop Current Eddy", or "Warm Core Ring", and can provide a key source of energy to fuel rapid intensification of hurricanes that cross the Gulf, in addition to the Loop Current itself. The Loop Current pulsates in a quasi-regular fashion and sheds rings every 6 to 11 months. When a Loop Current Eddy breaks off in the Gulf of Mexico at the height of hurricane season, it can lead to a dangerous situation where a vast reservoir of energy is available to any hurricane that might cross over. This occurred in 2005, when a Loop Current Eddy separated in July, just before Hurricane Katrina passed over and "bombed" into a Category 5 hurricane. The eddy remained in the Gulf and slowly drifted westward during September. Hurricane Rita passed over the same Loop Current Eddy three weeks after Katrina, and also explosively deepened to a Category 5 storm.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
620. Michfan
5:34 AM GMT on April 04, 2008

Dusting off another old one. Looks Clear!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
619. moonlightcowboy
12:34 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
That's a good question, Michfan; but, my guess is yes!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
618. moonlightcowboy
12:32 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
Yeah, haha, that's a popular site for the models. Stormjunkie has a great spot on his site that nicely explains the models, their use and also a tutorial on Quickscat.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
617. Michfan
5:33 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Wow the loop current is really high up in the gulf right now. I wonder if it will pinch off.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
616. Ivansrvivr
5:14 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Ivan was undergoing an ERC as it made landfall west of Pensacola. With it having such a large windfield, it kept it's cat 5 surge as it made landfall. Recon measured pressure indicated that Ivan had just began a strengthening cycle as it hit the Gulf coast also. I have a screensaver of a local radar image of Ivan just as it was about to make landfall and it is interesting. There are 2 distinct eyewalls on the north and northeast side, almost none on the SW side. Being on the ground it seemed like just 1 huge eyewall that lasted forever. I was just east of the eye as it passed. That was the worst case scenario because there was no break in the action. Also a strengthening storm is much more violent than a weakening storm. The damage in the right front quad was much worse than on the much weaker west side that hit Mobile, AL. When a storm is so bad that one is sitting on the concrete floor in the garage and the concrete itself is shaking from the violence of the storm, then it is on that someone "survived". Remember that after Ivan, there were 14 suicides in the Pensacola area. Those people didn't kill themselves because Ivan was a party or a joke. They killed themselves because after the storm, it seemed like the end of the world. I have experienced many tropical storms and hurricanes. Irene, Dennis, some of Katrina, but Ivan was a physical and mental strain like nothing I had ever imagined. That is the definition of survival.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
614. Michfan
5:33 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Haha great link MLC. Keep that one on hand for the first person to ask what the loop current is.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
612. hahaguy
12:30 AM EST on April 04, 2008
i love this place
most of the models
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
611. moonlightcowboy
12:28 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
Yeah, Michfan, that's a great link, thanks.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
610. moonlightcowboy
12:27 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
...dusting off some of the links, lol!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 658 - 608

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

Category 6™


Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Labrador ice