Cyclopsychic research breakthrough proves hurricanes/global warming connection

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on April 01, 2008

A stunning new breakthrough in hurricane research has conclusively settled the matter: global warming is making Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms more frequent. The new research, accepted for publication later this millennium in The Journal of Irreproducible Results, offers incontrovertible proof that global warming has increased Atlantic named storms by 57-67% over the past century. Using the pioneering new techniques of cyclopsychic storm detection and psychomortorodentiatempestology, the researchers, Professors Peter Webcaster and Judith Flurryfury of the Georgia Institute of Technophobia, and Dr. Greg Hallmonitor of the Colorado Association for Research and Modeling of the Atmosphere (CARMA), showed unequivocally that the lack of satellite measurements and aircraft reconnaissance in the early part of the hurricane record led to only a modest undercount of Atlantic tropical storms. Thus, more than half of the observed increase in named storms in the past century can be attributed to global warming.

"It's well-known that the number of Atlantic named storms has risen from 7-9 per year 100 years ago to 14-15 per year during the present active hurricane period that began in 1995," commented Professor Webcaster in an interview today. "Some MEEAT-loving hurricane researchers (Measure Everything, Everywhere, All the Time) have claimed that this rise was not real, since satellites and reconnaissance aircraft were not around to detect storms early in the hurricane record. We've made efforts in the past to quantify the number of 'missed' historical Atlantic storms using estimates of historical shipping traffic density, and computer regression models that compare recent well-observed storm activity to past storm activity. However, these studies have been pooh-poohed by the MEEAT men, who refuse to believe any science that comes out of a model. So, I began thinking about how we could actually go about observing historical Atlantic storms that were 'missed'. I began thinking the problem in a new light after watching my favorite episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, "Timescape", where subspace entity mistakenly lays her eggs in the warp core singularity of a Romulan warship, creating a temporal anomaly that forces time to flow backwards. This inspired me to think outside the box, and it occurred to me that paranormal methods might offer a way to see back in time and make actual observations of past storms--and offer a technophobic solution to the problem, as encouraged by the charter of my university, the Georgia Institute of Technophobia."

Figure 1. Cyclopsychic observations of "missing" Atlantic tropical storms during the 20th century. All observations were performed by trained cyclopsychic Madame Cyclotropia. Note the significant drop in "missed" storms beginning in the 1940s, corresponding to the advent of aircraft reconnaissance, and in the 1970s, when satellite coverage of the Atlantic Ocean began.

Webcaster teamed with Hallmonitor and Flurryfury to experiment with a variety of paranormal techniques to make actual observations of past "missing" storms, using Ouija Boards, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. Initial experiments proved discouraging, though, when the researchers attempted to perform the study themselves. "We were feeling depressed about how the research was going, having just stayed up late one Friday night in Greg's lab in Boulder trying to get the dang Magic Eight Ball to say something other than just REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN LATER," related Dr. Webcaster. "So, we decided to give up for the night and down a few shots of grape jello spiked with grain alcohol and delve into Greg's extensive collection of Zippy the Pinhead comic books. After a few jello shots and Zippy comics, we got feeling pretty loose, and, Yow! Decided to trek down to Pearl Street to check out the weekend psychic fair. Well, we got to staggering around the tents of the psychic fair, belting out the sorrowful lyrics of our own version of "Somewhere over the rainbow" we made up:

Somewhere, over the ocean
Back in time
Cyclones formed and decayed
Unseen by humankind

Somehow, we'll find out how many
Before we die
But it doesn't look good
'Cause the Magic Eight Ball lies!

Suddenly, we saw a mysterious shadowy figure beckoning to us from the entrance of a nearby tent, which was emblazoned with the words, Madame Cyclotropia: Psychic Readings for Troubled Atmospheric Scientists. 'I can help you find your missing storms', the seer in the shadows croaked, 'for I know much that is hidden. Come into my lair, and I will reveal the key to unlocking the mysteries of storms long past'. Greg and I looked at each other, shrugged, walked in her tent, and the rest is history."

Once in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, the researchers quickly realized that their limited scientific training could not hope to allow them to conduct rigorous paranormal research. Only a true cyclopsychic with "The Gift" could see back into the dim mists of time to divine the existence of heretofore unknown tropical cyclones. Using her cyclopsychic gift, Madame Cyclotropia correctly divined the past tracks of numerous known storms the scientists challenged her with. However, when asked to divine the existence of "missing" Atlantic storms that had not made it into the official database, she prophesied that she would only be able to do so if the scientists would write her into their latest grant proposal. This grant proposal would surely get funded, she predicted. The scientists eagerly agreed, and headed back to the lab to work on the new proposal.

Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury's proposal, titled, "Using a Trained Cyclopsychic to Divine Past Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity", was submitted to the Foundation for Atmospheric Research for Science and Education (FARSE) in early 2007 and accepted later that year. After receiving their grant money, the scientists began spending long nights in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, documenting her revelations from the four primary cyclopsychic techniques: Ouija Board, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. According to Dr. Hallmonitor, "We were thrilled when the first three techniques we tried all yielded virtually identical results, showing the robustness of our experimental methodology. The three techniques all showed a noticeable drop in the number of "missed" storms in the 1940s, when aircraft reconnaissance became available, and in the 1970s, when satellites coverage began over the Atlantic Ocean. However, when we tried to channel restless dead spirits, we ran into a roadblock. We couldn't find any restless dead spirits with an interest or knowledge of historical Atlantic hurricanes. We happily attributed this to the propensity of dead meteorologists to wind up inside Heaven's Pearly Gates, but were sad that our research would lack this crucial final proof of its validity. We were about to give up when Peter then hit upon the idea of contacting the spirits of groundhogs, who are known for their weather prognosticating ability. Some of these prognosticating rodents might have unfinished business that would keep their restless souls adrift in the ether, available for consultation on weather-related matters. We coined word psychomortorodentiatempestology to describe this exciting new branch of hurricane science, and set off in search of gifted groundhogs spirits with this special skill."

Figure 2. Wee Willy One and Chucky before their departure into the hereafter. Which rodent's spirit would you trust to get accurate weather information from?

Indeed, Madame Cyclotropia was able to contact the spirit of "Wee Willy One", a famed albino groundhog that had once burrowed under the fair gardens of Wiarton, Ontario, and provided weather forecasts each Groundhog's Day up until his death in 2006. Wee Willy One proved to be testy and uncooperative, though, deliberately delivering incorrect storm information. The researchers sought out help from cyclotherapy experts from the Center for Disease Control's Weather Related Illness Division to determine if cyclotherapy might help Wee Willy One overcome his bad attitude. Cyclotherapist Dr. Sandy Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One as a cyclopath suffering from rare form of cyclopsychosis. Ordinarily, cyclopsychosis manifests itself only in hurricane scientists and weather enthusiasts during the long, dull months prior to hurricane season. The despondent victims of cyclopsychosis spend long hours in front of flickering computer monitors in dark, gloomy rooms, obsessively poring over maps and statistics of hurricanes long gone by. The victims tend to become highly antisocial but never violent, and can be successfully treated with cycloactive drugs. However, Dr. Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One with an extremely rare case of "shadow" cyclopsychosis, brought on by the cyclological trauma being rudely hauled out of his burrow each February 2 so that a bunch of cockamaimie humans could see whether he saw his shadow or not. "Shadow" cyclopsychosis is incurable, both in this world and the hereafter, so Madame Cyclotropia was forced to seek out other groundhog spirits. After months of effort, she finally found the spirit of "Chucky", a friendly groundhog that had once burrowed under the gardens of Nashville, Tennessee. Chucky eagerly provided accurate information on the "missing" Atlantic tropical storms that was precisely in agreement with the data collected from the other cyclopsychic techniques. "We were ecstatic," exclaimed Dr. Hallmonitor. "More jello shots!"

Hurricane experts world-wide are hailing the new findings. "These exciting results conclusively prove that even us blind squirrels can find some nuts," enthused renown hurricane expert, Dr. Kerry Readthemanual of the Massachusetts Institute of Technophobia. Dr. Readthemanual has been a leading proponent of the global warming/Atlantic hurricane link. Even former critics are praising the new findings. Dr. William Graymatter, Professor Über-Emeritus of Colorado State University's Center for Hurricane Observation, Measurement, and Prediction (CHOMP), said in an interview: "I've been in the hurricane business for 113 years, and I know good research when I see it. The findings of Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury are based on solid observational evidence and white magic. There's no black magic involved, such as the use of a computer model, so their results are impregnable."

Dr. Chris Blandsee, Chief Scientist of the Natural Hurricane Center's division of Global Warming Isn't Responsible for the Recent Upswing in Atlantic Hurricane Activity, and Even If It Was, We Wouldn't be Able to Tell, Since the Quality of the Atlantic Hurricane Database is Too Poor to Use for Such Purposes (NHC/GWIRRUAHAEIIWWWATSQAHDTPUSP), has also been critical of past research showing a link between hurricanes and global warming, maintaining that global warming isn't responsible for the recent upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity, and even if it was, we wouldn't be able to tell, since the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database is too poor to use for such purposes. It was his Congressional testimony, along with that of former NHC director Max Minefield, which inspired President Bushwhacker's administration to rename the National Hurricane Center the "Natural Hurricane Center" last year. (This action was also urged by the Government Anagram Accountability Office (GAAO), which found that the letters in "National Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to spell the ominous phrase, "Errant Herculean Inaction"--and also the disturbing, "Teenier Charlatan Unicorn", and the clearly unacceptable, "Inhale Cocaine, Errant Runt!", while the letters in "Natural Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to form phrases much more in harmony with the NHC mission, such as "Natural, Neater, Crunchier.")

Dr. Blandsee grudgingly gave ground in his comments today. "It looks like Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury (and don't try to say her name three times fast) have done some pretty rigorous scientific work," he conceded. "But they've written what is probably the longest and most excruciatingly dull hurricane science paper of all time. All those old storms and their analyzed tracks that they talk about, on and on and on, year by year by year. Ugh! A lot of good trees died to publish that paper. It was even duller than some of my clunkers!"

What's next for the pioneering researchers? "Well, CARMA and the Georgia Institute of Technophobia are collaborating on a grant proposal with Dr. Graymatter and Phil Flossblack of CHOMP to apply cyclopsychic methods in a new way--improvement of seasonal hurricane forecasts," said Dr. Flurryfury. "We've submitted a proposal to FARSE titled, 'Gray Magic: Using Cyclopsychic Methods to Improve Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts'. Lord knows, the forecast busts of the past two hurricane seasons have shown that Flossblack and Dr. Graymatter could use some supernatural help with their predictions."

April Fools!
Meff Jasters

Hallmonitor, G.J., and P.J. Webcaster, 2007, "Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?" Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A 365, Number 1860, 15 November 2007, Pages: 26952716 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 708 - 658

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

707. weatherbro
4:12 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
Looks like this summer-like pattern will come to a hult come Wednesday. Wouldn't be surprised if Sunday's front stalls out over central Georgia.

Never seen Florida like this in my 17 years living here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
706. StormHype
4:02 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
I have the 1979 Nat Geo mag which the Cover story is GLOBAL COOLING! Is another Ice age ahead?

Yup, I recall that hype in the 70s well. Similary GW will be forgotten once Al Gore is gone... hopefully sooner than later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
703. moonlightcowboy
10:46 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
LOL, Ivan, I doubt there'll be any "social security" in years to come! But, I agree, it's likely to be decades before any "true" measurements of GW can be verified.

Also, I'm with you on the number of names storms, too. I dread just the awful "one" storm, whether there is 17 or 10 storms forecast for the season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
702. Ivansrvivr
3:40 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
MLC, i'm actually going against the 17 named storms average most are predicting. I believe there will be fewer but larger/stronger long lived storms.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
701. Ivansrvivr
3:35 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
WWbe, I have the 1979 Nat Geo mag which the Cover story is GLOBAL COOLING! Is another Ice age ahead? The GW pendulum is simply taking you for a ride. By the time our great great grandkids are collecting social security there maybe enough scientific data collected to prove or disprove GW. 50 yrs of global temp data is not even a snapshot of history.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
700. weathermanwannabe
11:07 AM EDT on April 04, 2008
Well...Headed out for lunch & errands and will BBL....That is a nasty line of storms right now headed towards the Missisippi Delta....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
699. stoormfury
3:00 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
Dr william gray's april forecast will now come out next tuesday, at a met conference in the bahamas. it is expected that the numbers will be a bit up from the dec forecast. this is probably due to to the lingering effects of la nina through the end of summer
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
698. weathermanwannabe
10:46 AM EDT on April 04, 2008
I'm starting to get a little tired of the current "pendulum" on GW; I'm going to stick with observing Hurricane Season which is a certainty every year!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
696. LakeShadow
2:38 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
Bryon TX is getting doused with 1.25" hail right now.

cell info:
61 dBZ 42,000 ft. 58 kg/m² 60% 100% 1.25 in. 32 knots W (267)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
695. weathermanwannabe
10:33 AM EDT on April 04, 2008
The ITCZ has been firng very nicely for the last few weeks so we will have to the see what happens with that region in a few months....As I mentioned a few days ago, if the warm pool stays intact and the SAR does not impact formation too much, we should see some very healthy CV waves continue off the African coast into August and September....Still too early to tell what will actually happen however...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
694. Tazmanian
7:30 AM PDT on April 04, 2008
look at this nic wave

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
693. LakeShadow
2:22 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
This looks pretty omnimous, too:

Kileen, TX Radar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
692. moonlightcowboy
9:21 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
LOL, I'm not just yet - that was mostly satire! But, yours and others early opinion seems to be that the season may be indeed be active, and really, while I don't advocate a landfall obviously, the likelihood of us dodging the bullet again is probably not very likely.

Keep feeling better and have a good day - out for some Friday errands!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
691. Ivansrvivr
2:15 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
MLC, the loop current cuts off like that every year when the deep Carribean waters warm to a certain point. There is nothing unusual about that happening every year. I wouldn't be getting so uptight just yet. There is still quite a ways to go before hurricane season and there are many factors that have to come together to make a bad one for any one area.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
690. LakeShadow
1:55 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
looks like theres some trouble brewing here...a few meso's...

Shreveport radar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
689. moonlightcowboy
8:40 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
Ivan, I can feel my gut getting a tad bit tighter already! uuuuugggghhh!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
688. Patrap
8:32 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
Every year brings the same chance of impact...To a Given point. And the chance of impact to a given point is best determined by History.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
687. weathermanwannabe
9:30 AM EDT on April 04, 2008
I expect a late start, very active middle and early end like 04.

If that come to pass, then we could see a lot of Cape Verde systems this year, and, the ultimate position and strength of the Bermuda High will play a huge factor in terms of potential threats to the Carribean and CONUS...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
686. Ivansrvivr
1:31 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
MLC climatology agrees with you. The 2 most favored areas in seasons following La Nina yrs are central Gulf Coast and Carolinas.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
685. Patrap
8:31 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
Max Mayfield, the longtime National Hurricane Center director who retired in January 2007, has transitioned into the private sector.

Mayfield, now a staffer at WPLG-TV 10 in Miami, also is a board member of a corporation called America’s Emergency Network. Founded in Miami last May, America’s Emergency Network is one of numerous exhibitors at the National Hurricane Conference hawking computerized disaster-alert systems. Emtel, a Suntree company, is another
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
684. moonlightcowboy
8:25 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
Yeah, Pat, stranger things have happened, but the likelihood of the CONUS dodging the bullet again are not real high would be my guess. We had a few in here last night knocking the dust off some old links. The Loop Current was one of them - and, it looks like that current will likely spin off a huge ring somewhere just into season - to drift around just south of us. Not too reassuring for any GOM storm.

Got an ITCZ? Scratch it! - my first tropical blog of the season, as NOAA begins its official monitoring of the band of thunderstorms in April.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
683. Patrap
8:28 AM CDT on April 04, 2008

Vendors storm hurricane conference
Pitch contraptions for use in event of ‘The Big One’

BY RICK NEALE • Florida Today • April 4, 2008

ORLANDO –– Solar-paneled generators resembling props from a Buck Rogers movie, perfect for powering your refrigerator after a hurricane. Bathtub water bladders. Peel-and-stick roofing tarps.

What amounted to the country's highest-profile storm-product bazaar continued Thursday at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, drawing hundreds of window-shopping public officials from across the Southeast.

Organizers say 225 companies staffed colorful exhibit booths in a spacious Rosen Centre Hotel ballroom, hoping to lure attention - and lucrative government contracts.

Vendors at this mini-carnival hawked hurricane shutters, mobile restroom trailers, packaged food, debris-hauling equipment, and a litany of other goods and services.

And they handed out freebies as well: black golf tees, white mouse pads, tiny bottles of Tabasco sauce, orange flashlights and trays of chocolate balls.

"Oh, my gosh, it started out extremely small," said Max Mayfield, the retired longtime National Hurricane Center director, who has attended and organized these conferences since the mid-1970s. "Now, they're coming to us. In the beginning, I'm sure they went out specifically seeking sponsors. Now, the exhibit hall is overflowing out into the hallways."

Some of these curious hurricane innovations fall on the exotic side of the spectrum.

Mayfield said he was fascinated by:

•Portable solar generators, capable of powering household appliances for families that lose electricity after a severe storm.

Solar Stik, the St. Augustine manufacturer, believes these contraptions - which resemble science-fiction weather vanes in photos - can replace gasoline-powered generators.

• 65-gallon plastic bladders, each designed to convert a bathtub into an emergency drinking-water supply container.

WaterSafe of Fort Lauderdale sells these contamination-fighting bags online for $29.99. Added bonus: siphon pump included.

•Adhesive roofing tarps, perfect for slapping atop areas of minor damage - no nails required.

These UV-treated sheets purportedly stick to shingles, tile, concrete, metal and rubber, claims a Miami Lakes company.

At the booth of West Melbourne-based Relm Wireless Corp., regional sales manager Brian Rodrigues showed off a handheld radio to Columbia County fire Chief Tres Atkinson, a potential customer.

Atkinson's department responded to the F2 tornado that tore across Lake City in early March, killing one, causing millions of dollars in damage and knocking radio transmitters offline.

"We had a communications problem. We're looking at different options for the future," Atkinson said.

Another Brevard County-based company with an exhibit at the National Hurricane Conference was Suntree-based Emtel Corp.

Emtel Chief Executive Mitch Auerbach spent Thursday demonstrating his company's emergency communication systems to conference attendees.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
682. Ivansrvivr
1:25 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
677. A strong ENSO pattern either way tends to suppress tropical activity. This season the current La Nina is fading fast and will be basically ENSO neutral by the heart of hurricane season which means likely more active. May even be weak El Nino by season's end. Not enough to have impact on season. I expect a late start, very active middle and early end like 04.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
680. Ivansrvivr
1:23 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
I had dell before this mac. I changed the d to an h in it's name. Mac has been 100% problem free.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
679. Patrap
8:23 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
My prediction, 4 Majors and One Major Landfall...

According to the ritual ring toss conducted at Sunrise here while facing East and holding ones breath
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
678. Ivansrvivr
1:11 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
456, the factors controlling the Bermuda high are much more complicated than just ENSO and NAO. Atlantic SSTs, tropical systems push and shove on the Bermuda high as it steers those same tropical systems. Sometimes sinking air surrounding strong tropical systems can strengthen the Bermuda high. A strong tropical system can push the Bermuda high eastward leaving a trough in it's path. There are some years where NAO and ENSO would favor a strong Bermuda high and it is just not there. Some years it is in wrong position. It is very complicated pattern. Far more complicated than just ENSO and NAO.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
677. weathermanwannabe
9:12 AM EDT on April 04, 2008
Good Morning Folks.....I'm no pro at the ENSO issues but there is an apparent inverse relatonship between Pacific Basin activity (Typhoons) and Tropical Atlantic Issues during Hurricane Season....With "cooler" pools in the Pacific (which would affect formation of Typhoons), the Atlantic basin seeks to "pick-up" and vice versa.....As these systems are Nature's way of expelling excess heat, so long as there is a La Nina event in play, then I can see another basis for Gray's team upping the numbers a little for the Atlantic season...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
675. Ivansrvivr
1:10 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
Storm, get a Mac and your problems will go away.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
673. biff4ugo
1:05 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
See message 615 above for a link to some amazing tornado video in Little Rock.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
671. biff4ugo
12:43 PM GMT on April 04, 2008
Haven't heard from Little Rock.
It is down stream of a big mass o wet on the USGS streamgages I have up.
Most gages are already showing max levels.

Weather here looks like we have an Irish forecaster. Same highs lows and wet all week. I won't complain till our lakes are back up to normal.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
669. Weather456
8:10 AM AST on April 04, 2008
667. pottery 8:06 AM AST on April 04, 2008
Good Morning, 456.
So, ENSO and NAO control the location and strength of the low, but both of these factors are controlled by other things. Which are affected by still other things, and as we go back into the controlling factors, we run into less and less real knowledge and experience.
Not wanting to make too big a deal here, but this is what keeps us all interested in weather.
In terms of Tropical storms and Hurricanes, at the end of the day what is required is moisture laden air, low pressure and warm temps. The corriolis effect doesn't go away.
Everything else is fine-tuning, dont you think?

Yes I agree
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
668. Weather456
7:51 AM AST on April 04, 2008
Last night on BBC World Service Radio, they were reporting that chief mets at the UN said that Global Temps will be cooler this year than in 2007 becuz of a powerful La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. They also went on to say, that this has raise some questions about Global Warming, saying that the Planet maybe more resilient to Greenhouse gases that we throught and Global Warming may have preaked.

However, some still argue that instead of looking at by decades (1998-2008), look at in terms of centuries and it shows the overall trend is warming.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
667. pottery
7:45 AM AST on April 04, 2008
Good Morning, 456.
So, ENSO and NAO control the location and strength of the low, but both of these factors are controlled by other things. Which are affected by still other things, and as we go back into the controlling factors, we run into less and less real knowledge and experience.
Not wanting to make too big a deal here, but this is what keeps us all interested in weather.
In terms of Tropical storms and Hurricanes, at the end of the day what is required is moisture laden air, low pressure and warm temps. The corriolis effect doesn't go away.
Everything else is fine-tuning, dont you think?

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
666. stoormfury
11:27 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
today is the expected April forecast from Gray et al. my bet is an increase in the numbers based solely on the anomalies seen so far. like the unusually warm waters off the African coast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
665. Weather456
7:20 AM AST on April 04, 2008
509. pottery 10:55 PM AST on April 03, 2008
Stormdude, what are the mechanics controlling the location of the Bermuda high ? Is it predictable in any way, do you know ??

ENSO and the NAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
664. Ivansrvivr
10:51 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
if I recall correctly over 90% of homes in Escambia and Santa Rosa co had blue tarps after Ivan. (I am not sure about that but I believe that was number. I know 100% of power infrastructure was k.o.ed. and 100% of telephone system was out. 100% of all broadcast mediums were knocked out. There was no radio or tv stations operational in range of Pensacola. At night I could park my car pointed a strange way in the yard and get a.m.1510WLAC out of nashville. That is how I got my news. then there was the nightly EOC broadcast that told people where to get Ice and food. But that was maybe 5 or6 days later. Those days were so long and crazy that it all seems a bit jumbled up now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
663. all4hurricanes
10:35 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
My Aunt lives in Florida And got hit almost directly from both Frances and Jeanne a few screens blew out in her pool patio one of her friends had the pool patio structure collapse also a few roofs were blown off/ destroyed in the neighborhood
they nicknamed Florida the blue roof state for a while
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
661. Ivansrvivr
6:29 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Yep, i'm off to go use the litter box and chase a lizard. Mokee out!!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
660. Ivansrvivr
6:27 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
Be thankful Frances wasnt a strong 3 like Ivan. With it's slow motion, it would have laid waste to S.E. Florida if it were a major. I mean like nuclear bomb type destruction.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
659. moonlightcowboy
1:27 AM CDT on April 04, 2008
Ivan, I'll check it out! Hope you keep feeling better! I'm out to watch a lil Mulder and Scully and hitting the hay. Got bunches to do on Friday!

Enjoyed it, muchly, all! Have a good sleep!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
658. Ivansrvivr
6:24 AM GMT on April 04, 2008
My guess on numbers of named storms(not as important as many claim) is posted on my blog. I expect avg to slightly above avg. (not 17-20 as many are predicting) I do expect a tendency for more majors and larger sized storms. Steering is the key, though.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 708 - 658

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

Category 6™


Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Labrador ice