The future of flooding

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:06 PM GMT on February 19, 2008

Are storms getting more extreme due to climate change? That is a difficult question to answer, since reliable records are not available at all in many parts of the world, and extend back only a few decades elsewhere. However, we do have a fairly good set of precipitation records for many parts of the globe, and those records show that the heaviest types of rains--those likely to cause flooding--have increased in recent years. According to the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report, "The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas". Indeed, global warming theory has long predicted an increase in heavy precipitation events. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).

More water vapor equals more precipitation
This increase in water vapor has very likely led to an increase in global precipitation. For instance, over the U.S., where we have very good precipitation records, annual average precipitation has increased 7% over the past century (Groisman et al., 2004). The same study also found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events over the U.S. in the past century. Kunkel et al. (2003) also found an increase in heavy precipitation events over the U.S. in recent decades, but noted that heavy precipitation events were nearly as frequent at the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, though the data is not as reliable back then. Thus, there is a large natural variation in extreme precipitation events.

Pollution may contribute to higher precipitation
It is possible that increased pollution is partly responsible for the increase in precipitation and in heavy precipitation events in some parts of the world. According to Bell et al. (2008), summertime rainfall over the Southeast U.S. is more intense on weekdays than on weekends, with Tuesdays having 1.8 times as much rain as Saturdays during the 1998-2005 period analyzed. Air pollution particulate matter also peaks on weekdays and has a weekend minimum, making it likely that pollution is contributing to the observed mid-week rainfall increase. Pollution particles act as "nuclei" around which raindrops condense, increasing precipitation in some storms.

The future of flooding
It is difficult to say if the increase in heavy precipitation events in recent years has led to more flooding, since flooding is critically dependent on how much the landscape has been altered by development, upstream deforestation, and what kind of flood control devices are present. One of the few studies that did attempt to quantify flooding (Milly et al., 2002) found that the incidence of great floods has increased in recent decades. In the past century, the world's 29 largest river basins experienced a total of 21 "100-year floods"--the type of flood one would expect only once per 100 years in a given river basin. Of these 21 floods, 16 occurred in the last half of the century (after 1953). With the IPCC predicting that heavy precipitation events are very likely to continue to increase, it would be no surprise to see flooding worsen globally in the coming decades.

Jeff Masters

Bell, T. L., D. Rosenfeld, K.-M. Kim, J.-M. Yoo, M.-I. Lee, and M. Hahnenberger (2008), "Midweek increase in U.S. summer rain and storm heights suggests air pollution invigorates rainstorms," J. Geophys. Res., 113, D02209, doi:10.1029/2007JD008623.

Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trapp, R.J., N.S. Diffenbaugh, H.E. Brooks, M.E. Baldwin, E.D. Robinson, and J.S. Pal, 2007, Severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing, PNAS 104 no. 50, 19719-19723, Dec. 11, 2007.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Winter Flooding (Jmroh)
This is the result of extreme snowmelt and 4 inches of rain.
Winter Flooding
Yellow River Starke County Indiana (StarkeHistorian)
Kankakee Game Preserve, 10 Mile Road: The Yellow River crested this morning at 12.14' at the US35 bridge at 11:45AM. This was 2.14' over flood stage. The record is 15.3 Jan 1, 1991.
Yellow River Starke County Indiana

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201. Whit
8:35 PM GMT on February 22, 2008
One must not be quick to base increased heavy rain events on global warming. Consider the fact that Western weather patterns have been significantly altered in recent years by the El Nino and La Nina effects. Don't play the "global warming" card just because it sounds cool. The evidence is simply not there as sufficiently as many scientists claim.
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200. Patrap
1:58 PM CST on February 22, 2008

Hurricanes and global warming devastate Caribbean coral reefs

Storm damage from waves and death of vital algae likely to become more common, report warns

Alok Jha, science correspondent
The Guardian,
Thursday January 24 2008

Warmer seas and a record hurricane season in 2005 have devastated more than half of the coral reefs in the Caribbean, according to scientists. In a report published yesterday, the World Conservation Union (IUCN) warned that this severe damage to reefs would probably become a regular event given current predictions of rising global temperatures due to climate change.

According to the report, 2005 was the hottest year on average since records began and had the most hurricanes ever recorded in a season. Large hotspots in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico powered strong tropical hurricanes such as Katrina, which developed into the most devastating storm ever to hit the US.

In addition to the well-documented human cost, the storms damaged coral by increasing the physical strength of waves and covering the coast in muddy run-off water from the land. The higher sea temperature also caused bleaching, in which the coral lose the symbiotic algae they need to survive. The reefs then lose their colour and become more susceptible to death from starvation or disease.


Carl Gustaf Lundin, head of the IUCN's global marine programme, said: "Sadly for coral reefs, it's highly likely extreme warming will happen again. When it does, the impacts will be even more severe. If we don't do something about climate change, the reefs won't be with us for much longer." Some of the worst-hit regions of the Caribbean, which contains more than 10% of the world's coral reefs, included the area from Florida through to the French West Indies and the Cayman Islands. In August 2005 severe bleaching affected between 50% and 95% of coral colonies and killed more than half, mostly in the Lesser Antilles.

The IUCN report highlights pressures on coral reefs in addition to those of overfishing and pollution identified in recent years. A recent study found that reefs near large human populations suffered the most damage.

Coral reefs are an important part of the marine ecosystem, supporting an estimated 25% of all marine life including more than 4,000 species of fish. They provide spawning, nursery, refuge and feeding areas for a wide variety of other creatures such as lobsters, crabs, starfish and sea turtles. Reefs also play a crucial role as natural breakwaters, protecting coastlines from storms.

"It's quite clear that the structure and their function as they are right now in the Caribbean is quite severely impeded," said Lundin. "Over the next few decades we will see a large reduction in the number of reef areas."

Reefs also boost the local economy - in the Caribbean coral reefs provide more than $4bn (2bn) a year from fisheries, scuba-diving tourism and shoreline protection. According to an analysis by the World Resources Institute: Reefs at Risk, coral loss in the region could cost the local economy up to $420m every year.


"The only possible way to sustain some live coral on the reefs around the world," said the report, "will be to carefully manage the direct pressures like pollution, fishing and damaging coastal developments, and hope that some coral species are able to adapt to the warmer environment."

Lundin said managing these more direct pressures on reefs would lessen the impact of rising sea temperatures. "Over time we'll also see transitional species; if we give nature enough time it's possible some coral will actually cope with the warmer water and we'll get another composition of the reef," he said.

Despite this, the report concluded that a dramatic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the next 20 years would be "critical to control further warming and dangerously high CO2 levels that will probably reduce the robustness and competitive fitness of corals and limit the habitats for many other organisms living on Caribbean coral reefs".

The report was compiled from data and observations of coral bleaching from more than 70 coral reef workers and volunteer divers, and was launched to coincide with the first day of the International Year of the Reef 2008, a global campaign coordinating activities by 225 organisations in 50 countries to raise awareness about the value of coral reefs and the threats they face.

The 2005 hurricane year broke all records, with 26 named storms, including 13 hurricanes. In July, the unusually strong Hurricane Dennis struck Grenada, Cuba and Florida, while Hurricane Emily set a record as the strongest to hit the Caribbean before August. Hurricane Katrina in August was the most devastating storm to hit the US, causing massive damage around New Orleans. Hurricane Rita passed through the Gulf of Mexico to strike Texas and Louisiana in September. Hurricane Wilma in October was the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record and caused major damage in Mexico. The season ended in December when tropical storm Zeta formed, before petering out in January. Many of these hurricanes caused considerable damage to the reefs via wave action and run-off of muddy, polluted freshwater.

Story: Link
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199. ShenValleyFlyFish
2:48 PM EST on February 22, 2008
Long time no see
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198. hurricane23
2:49 PM EST on February 22, 2008
Good afternoon!

Just wanted to drop in to post a link to an article a friend of mine at noaa sent to me.Here is a piece of the article.

We found that although some decades were quieter and less damaging in the U.S. and others had more land-falling hurricanes and more damage, the economic costs of land-falling hurricanes have steadily increased over time,%u201D said Chris Landsea, one of the researchers as well as the science and operations officer at NOAA%u2019s National Hurricane Center in Miami. There is nothing in the U.S. hurricane damage record that indicates global warming has caused a significant increase in destruction along our coasts.

See Complete Article Here

Also the NWS has backed of somewhat on severe weather for the southeast next week but i will say this its going to bring very cool temps wednesday and thursday.Mid 80's this weekend so get out and enjoy the summer time weather across the area.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13873
195. ShenValleyFlyFish
2:14 PM EST on February 22, 2008
Topic of the day is chosen by Dr M. Respectful comments on that not considered off topic as far as I've seen.
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194. weatherboyfsu
4:57 PM GMT on February 22, 2008
Good morning everyone,

Nice line of storms pushing across the panhandle of Florida this morning. Seems like the southeast has inherited the bullseye for bad weather this winter/spring.....
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193. ljk
3:45 PM GMT on February 22, 2008
this is off topic but i have to point out that on the front page in the synopsis paragraph it says that the temperature in huntsville alabama was 104 degrees yesterday this has to be an error
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192. V26R
2:54 PM GMT on February 22, 2008
Biff just to correct you about the Solar Cycle
Currently we are at the extreme bottom of the past cycle waiting for confirmation when the next one has started. It has to do with the
magnetics of reversing poles in the Sunspots
measured by satellite somehow, Once the powers
that be see this occuring, they can decare that the last Solar Cycle has ended and the
new one had begun, Currently for about the
past month or so, Sunspots have been non-existant
If you want more info check out
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1935
191. biff4ugo
2:44 PM GMT on February 22, 2008
The 11 year solar cycle is in it's hotter phase, and the Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation is also in it's warm phase. Is that the reason the ice cap is melting and the glaciers are going away?
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190. ShenValleyFlyFish
9:06 AM EST on February 22, 2008
182. KoritheMan 6:57 AM EST on February 22, 2008 That's just silly - this whole "agree with me or feel my wrath" clique that roams around here.

You think it's bad now? Wait until hurricane season.

It is never out of season to police this blog. It has nothing to do with agreement or disagreement. Has to do with wasted bandwidth especially during a major weather event. WU is #10 on the hit frequency list for whole internet and this blog is regarded as one of the best real-time discussions of tropical weather around. During an event this blog may be frequented by people making life or death decisions so it behooves us all to lay aside our personal egos and pet theories and stay on topic. WU has most generously provided open blog space for anyone who chooses to use it. If anyone has a pet theory or personal gripe or grudge start your own blog. As long as you keep the language and content fit for general audiences you can pretty much say whatever you want. Heck I bet someone could start a "WU is a waste of bandwidth and Dr Masters is a nincompoop" site and as long is it was civil they would let you get away with it. I wouldn't frequent it but that's a free choice.
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186. surfmom
1:04 PM GMT on February 22, 2008
g'morning --wow you guys are rocking already!Earthquakes, tornados, ....lots to review today! Taz, enjoyed your post!!!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
185. guygee
12:58 PM GMT on February 22, 2008
57. sebastianjer 5:01 AM GMT on February 20, 2008 wrote:
The total increase in global temperatures for the entire 20th century was .6 degC globally. With the warmest year as everyone know being 1998 (EL Nino) Since 1998 temperature have not gone up, now have they?

That is going on a decade without an increase in global temperature. Now what is supposed to happen with increased CO2 ? Temperatures are supposed to rise, correct? They have not, I know you know this but i want to put this into perspective for anyone who just may be lurking.
The point is this, increased co2 should equal rising temperatures, for the past decade they have not.

2005 was warmer than 1998, and 2007 was tied with 1998. What is significant is that 1998 was one of the strongest El Nino years on record. El Nino events raise the global temperature for a year or so, and yet the five-year moving average global temperature has generally continued to rise since 1998. 2008 will most likely not be a top 10 warmest year because of La Nina, but the next strong El Nino looks to smash all previous records for the hottest year yet. Barring a major volcanic eruption, you can lay your money down on that sebastianjer.
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184. guygee
12:30 PM GMT on February 22, 2008
Speaking of flooding, it would probably benefit us all to learn about how FEMA classifies flood zones and which flood zone that you live in. My motivation as a Floridian is a potential ballot initiative that threatens to take away property tax benefits for people living in certain flood zones. You can find a map that designates your FEMA flood zone classification at the FEMA Map Service Center. An explanation of different FEMA flood hazard zone designations is here.
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182. KoritheMan
11:55 AM GMT on February 22, 2008
That's just silly - this whole "agree with me or feel my wrath" clique that roams around here.

You think it's bad now? Wait until hurricane season.
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179. KoritheMan
8:27 AM GMT on February 22, 2008
Korintheman, saw your post about bad names for hurricanes.My vote is for hurricane Fifi in 74.

Fifi was bad, but I was referring to naming another tropical cyclone in a different basin Hugo or Ivan.

If a storm was named Fifi, it'd probably be bad. I'm sure it's only coincidence that storms like Ivan and Hugo are bad when applied to other tropical cyclones in different basins, but still, it seems eerie.
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178. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:55 AM GMT on February 22, 2008

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10R [998 hPa] located near 18.6S 59.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported moving southwest at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/12 HRS

Near Gale-Force Winds within 20 NM radius from the center extending up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant.

Forecast and Intensity
24 HRS: 20.6S 57.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 23.0S 53.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 26.6S 49.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
METEOSAT7 imagery shows a warming deep convective activity near the center and a broken curved band.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Hondo has a small size and quickly reacts to the environment. The environment should remain neutral to favorable within the next 24-36 hours, and the system could gradually intensify but intensity forecast remains delicate. Beyond 36 hours, the system is expected to undergo an increasing easterly windshear and weak ocean heat content. The ridge effect along the western edge of the system is expected to weaken, Therefore Ex-Hondo is forecasted to accelerate southwestwards along the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures.

RSMC Reunion Watches/Warnings
At 6:00 AM UTC, A Yellow Alert remains in effect for the islands of Mauritius and Reunion.
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176. Patrap
11:08 PM CST on February 21, 2008
National Watches and Warnings Page Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 452 Comments: 144126
174. Patrap
10:38 PM CST on February 21, 2008
UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 452 Comments: 144126
172. ajcamsmom
10:12 PM CST on February 21, 2008
Good blog Dr. Masters, thank you.
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171. V26R
3:35 AM GMT on February 22, 2008
At it again Lindenii?
How many days you going to go on about this?
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1935
169. Tazmanian
7:07 PM PST on February 21, 2008
has all way if you dont like some one this put them on the Ignore and yet it go and this move on

thats my tip
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167. Patrap
9:00 PM CST on February 21, 2008
Once again..someone body slams the linkmaster out of context. "Coolie" is an endearing term for someone who disagree's with the GW crowd. I am neither. Im neutral on it all. But if you have a problem with a post of mine..use wu-mail instead of doing this BS here.

I have no shame. Im a Jarhead.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 452 Comments: 144126
166. Patrap
8:57 PM CST on February 21, 2008
Web Dictionary AKA Bloggers on GW Debates.

Coolie "Defined".."someone who is frigid in thinking"
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 452 Comments: 144126
165. Patrap
8:56 PM CST on February 21, 2008
O boy..well, Dad said once, "if ya being quoted,,they talking about you." LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 452 Comments: 144126
163. atmoaggie
2:31 AM GMT on February 22, 2008
Whohoo, look at me. I have a degree in marketing and a minor in broadcast communications...

Earlier this afternoon a twit on the weather channel let us know that there was a tornado warning in Avoyelles County in Louisiana, which she pronounced in such a way that it rhymed with Martinez (as in with a real Hispanic accent). How refreshing.

The weather channel really does find the best people for the job, far more about advertising than meteorology and, obviously, geography.
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162. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:16 AM GMT on February 22, 2008

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10R [998 hPa] located near 18.4S 59.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported moving southwest at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-Force Winds within 20 NM radius from the center extending up to 75 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 95 NM in the southeastern quadrant.

Forecast and Intensity
24 HRS: 19.7S 58.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 22.6S 54.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.9S 49.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Hondo is now shifting very slowly southwestwards. METEOSAT7 Imagery shows a warming deep convective activity near the center and a broken curved band. Environmental conditions are difficult in the border of a quick southeasterly windshear line existing west of 57E. The ridge effect in the western edge of the system is expected to weaken. Therefore Ex-Hondo is forecasted to accelerate on a southwestward track on the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Environment should remain neutral to favorable within the next 36 to 48 hours, so the system could gradually intensify but forecasting of intensity remains delicate. Beyond 48 hours the system is expected to undergo an inforcing easterly windshear and a less and less energetic potential.

RSMC Reunion Watches/Warnings
At 0:00 AM UTC, A Yellow Alert remains in effect for the islands of Mauritius and Reunion.
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161. Tazmanian
4:59 PM PST on February 21, 2008
All eyes then turn to the rapidly developing storm in the eastern Pacific currently 500-1000 miles north of the Hawaiian Islands. This storm, according to all forecast models, will exhibit classic cyclogenesis through baroclinic processes (with a well-defined warm front, warm southerly inflow on the east side of the low, very cold air aloft wrapping around the west side of the low, a developing jet stream of over 150 kts preceding the low and allowing for divergence aloft and rapid deepening of the surface low, etc). This system will be a real treat to watch develop over the next 48 hours–it will be something more reminiscent of a cyclonic winter storm that might develop over the Plains States (which would, in that location, produce heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions in the north and severe thunderstorms further south along the cold front). The impacts of such a system in CA will be quite different, but potentially very impressive nonetheless. For such a strong and unusually well-developed storm, the models have come into remarkable agreement over the past 48 hours, rapidly deepening the surface low to about 975 mb as the cyclone reaches a point 500 nm west of San Francisco. The low will be vertically stacked (low pressure at the surface will be directly under the low pressure aloft) and this will eventually lead to the demise of the low as it begins to move ashore (though the models have decreased the amount of weakening that is expected to take place before it makes landfall between Cape Mendocino and San Francisco). It is important to note that a low of this depth is extremely rare this close to the CA coast, and also that the models do tend to underestimate the degree to which cyclonic storms undergoing explosive deepening (bombogenesis) will actually do so. Therefore–I currently expect a powerful storm to impact NorCal later Saturday into Sunday. At the moment, it appears that this storm may be comparable to the January 4th storm of this year (which brought widespread wind damage and flooding to NorCal). There is the potential for this storm to be either significantly stronger or significantly weaker than this benchmark event, however, due to the undertainties regarding the depth of the low and the rate at which it weakens as it moves ashore. Intense rainfall and very strong winds are almost a guarantee at this point, however; it’s just a question of magnitude. Also interesting to note is the thermodynamic profile of this system as it nears the coast–there is a significant chance of dynamically-forced convective activity even well ahead of the cold front. There will be a secondary enhanced potential for thunderstorms as the low core moves ashore and colder air aloft moves in on Sunday. There may be some potential for severe storms at some point this weekend in NorCal. SoCal will see rain out of this event, but not too much–the Transverse Range will see locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area California
420 PM PST Thursday Feb 21 2008

A very potent storm system will move to the coast over the weekend.
The surface low deepens 19 mb in a 12 hour period per the 12z GFS...from
996 mb at 00z Sat to 977 mb by 12z Sat. The low deepens to 976 mb
near 38/130 by 00z sun. Warm frontal rains will develop Sat morning.
Rain will increase Sat afternoon and continue heavy at times Sat night...
before decreasing to showers Sunday. Rainfall could cause some Hydro
problems on the orographically favored areas...with the winds nearly
perpendicular to the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia mountains. The big
news with this system will be the very strong winds associated with
this system. The gradient tightens up to 28 mb late Sat afternoon along
the coast from Arcata-Santa Barbara per the GFS. 925 mb winds
increase to 60 to 65 knots Sat afternoon...and remain near 50 knots right into
Sunday morning
. As a result...a high wind watch will be issued for
the whole district from Sat noon through middle morning Sunday.

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160. hydrus
12:51 AM GMT on February 22, 2008
Korintheman, saw your post about bad names for hurricanes.My vote is for hurricane Fifi in 74.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 28251
159. KoritheMan
12:04 AM GMT on February 22, 2008
Whoa, look at this:

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Franklin County in Florida...
this includes the city of Carrabelle...
southern Liberty County in Florida...
Wakulla County in Florida...
this includes the city of Crawfordville...
eastern Gulf County in the Panhandle of Florida...

* until 745 PM EST/645 PM CST/

* at 546 PM CST/646 PM EST/... National Weather Service Doppler radar
indicated a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing
destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. These storms were located
along a line extending from 11 miles south of Blountstown to port
St. Joe... and moving east at 40 mph.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near...
Carrabelle by 730 PM EST...
Crawfordville by 745 PM EST...
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156. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:42 PM GMT on February 21, 2008

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10R [998 hPa] located near 18.0S 59.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The disturbance is reported as quasi-stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-Force Winds within 15 NM radius from the center extending up to 30 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
24 HRS: 19.2S 58.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 21.3S 56.2E - 50 knots? (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.0S 51.6E - 50 knots? (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
Former Tropical Storm Hondo is quasi-stationary for about the last 10 hours. It is expected to track again slowly southwestward on the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures within the night. It could intensify gradually but intensity forecasting remains delicate.

RSMC Reunion Watches/Warnings
At 15:00 PM UTC, RSMC Reunion has issued a Yellow Alert for the islands of Mauritius and Reunion.
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155. Sockets
6:35 PM GMT on February 21, 2008
Anyone have recent updates on the impending ice storm for the Washington DC area? It looks like some of the models are keeping the air cold enough for all freezing rain and sleet tomorrow.
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154. NEwxguy
3:47 PM GMT on February 21, 2008
153. StormW 3:45 PM GMT on February 21, 2008
151. NEwxguy 10:18 AM EST on February 21, 2008
GM Storm,thanks for the synopsis,we are ready for some winter weather here in Mass.

Guess you guy's are going to have winter forever!

nah the groundhog said only 6 more weeks,which should take us till the middle of march.
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152. Tazmanian
7:32 AM PST on February 21, 2008
6.3 quake rattles northeastern Nevada

24 minutes ago

ELKO, Nev. - A strong earthquake shook rural northeastern Nevada Thursday, and there were early reports of damage in some communities, authorities said.


The quake had a preliminary magnitude of 6.3 and was reported at 6:16 a.m., according to the U.S. Geological Survey. It was centered in a sparsely populated area 11 miles southeast of Wells near the Nevada-Utah line.

"It was pretty bad," said Jane Kelso, who answered the phone at the Motel 6. "Everything in our whole building shook. "We have cracks in our walls."

The temblor was felt across eastern Nevada, Utah and as far away as Southern California. Elko County Undersheriff Rocky Gonzalez said there were unconfirmed reports of some damage to buildings.
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151. NEwxguy
3:17 PM GMT on February 21, 2008
GM Storm,thanks for the synopsis,we are ready for some winter weather here in Mass.
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Fall Color in Pictured Rocks
Pictured Rocks Beach Day
Pictured Rocks dunes and clouds
Grizzlies in Lake Clark National Park