Quiet in the tropics; major severe weather outbreak in the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on October 17, 2007

A low pressure system (99L) over the Gulf of Mexico has moved ashore this morning near the Texas/Louisiana border. Lake Charles, LA long-range radar shows some heavy rain showers are moving ashore, but flooding problems are not expected.

A low pressure system has developed along the coast of Southeast Florida this morning. Long range radar out of Melbourne shows a little bit of organized banding of the associated rain showers. However, this system is headed northeastward out to sea. Wind shear is 20-30 knots over the low, and will increase, so development into a tropical depression is not expected.

Severe weather outbreak today and Thursday
A major severe weather outbreak is likely today over the Midwestern U.S., due to an intensifying low pressure system that is drawing in plenty of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico (thanks in part to tropical disturbance 99L). Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches have already been posted, and today's severe weather has the potential to generate strong, long-track tornadoes. The activity shifts to Chicago and the Great Lakes region tomorrow. Follow the action on our new interactive tornado map, which will post the tornado damage reports as they are received. The new feature also allows one to plot all the historical tornado activity back to 1950 for any region in the U.S.



Jeff Masters

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950. weatherg8r
11:20 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Morning Storm...morning all.
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949. Dakster
11:16 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
TO the person who asked about Lake Okeechobee. It is at 10.05 Feet, still around 4 feet below normal. However, even if we were to get enough rain to rbing it up, SFWMD and the Army Corp. of Engineers has advised they will drain it as there is a fear the levies will not hold. This was in the Miami Herald a week ago.

I hope it is a quiet day for Tornado's in the S. I have been in and around several Tornado's in Arkansas... I'd rather go thru a Hurricane.

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947. Eyewall911
11:00 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Tornados are cool! Yesterday was was incredible with all the tornados, It's neat watching houses flying through the air. One good thing about them, they help git rid of trailer parks.
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946. Weather456
6:37 AM AST on October 18, 2007
Good Morning All

Good Morning Halifax, Nova Scotia

Current Conditions:

Scattered Cloudiness
Temperature of 5C
Winds from the WNW at 2.6 m/s
Pressure down to 1014 HPA

Webcam Image
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945. BahaHurican
6:33 AM EDT on October 18, 2007
Morning, everybody.

Doesn't look like much is happening out there at the moment. The Twave in the Car is barely visible, and the one in the CATL has showers only over the ITCZ at this time. The Car ULL looks to be moving into the GoM.

Hopefully the US weather will quiet down.

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944. stoormfury
10:32 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
StormW Morning
catl looking good this morning. what you think?
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941. stoormfury
10:23 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
catl wave looks quite interesting this morning.
wind shear is now 10 knots needs watching




Link
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940. CaneAddict
9:47 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Baha....It seems to be doing so...We will just have to wait and see what it does over the weekend...Also i believe the NHC has just declared that area of low pressure east of Florida Invest 90L.
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939. UYA
6:39 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
There's no shortage of mid-level moisture....but switch on the infrared loop and there's not much to see.
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938. UYA
6:31 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Just looks like an ULL in the Carib trying to add some moisture.
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937. BahaHurican
2:05 AM EDT on October 18, 2007
Is it me, or is that ULL in the WCar trying to add some moisture near its COC????

Link
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936. hurricane24
6:23 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
this is kiko
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2007 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 14:53:09 N Lon : 104:32:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.8mb/ 47.0kt



6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.2 3.4 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -57.9C Cloud Region Temp : -49.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.92 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


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935. UYA
5:42 AM GMT on October 18, 2007

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/MUCH OF MS/MO BOOTHEEL/WESTERN
TN/WESTERN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 715...

VALID 180527Z - 180700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 715 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES
ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 715. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED PRIOR TO THE
SCHEDULED 07Z EXPIRATION...MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL
AND PERHAPS WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS/WESTERN KY.

UPSTREAM OF TORNADO WATCH 715...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCING CHANNEL OF
ASCENT...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
AR...AS FAR EAST AS THE LITTLE ROCK VICINITY AS OF 05Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MS
RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED -- GENERALLY AROUND 500-750 J/KG MLCAPE -- VERY STRONG FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE WILL EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN POTENTIAL
FOR ROTATING STORMS...WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO EASTERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL AND POTENTIALLY
WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY/NORTHERN MS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
400 M2/S2...FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.

FARTHER SOUTH...A RELATIVE LULL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF MS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME GIVEN
VEERING FLOW ALOFT/LIMITED MASS CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTH
EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTHERN MS.

..GUYER.. 10/18/2007
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934. UYA
5:14 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Tornado Watch 717

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (40%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)


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933. whitewabit
4:51 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Around Peoria, Il...Storms tonight not nearly as bad as they looked...rain in most areas of less then .4 inches... Had wind in the 30 mph range earlier..

We will get the heavy stuff tomorrow morning and afternoon...
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932. flaboyinga
12:17 AM EDT on October 18, 2007
There is a lot of moisture moving around on the WV loop.

Link
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931. UYA
4:30 AM GMT on October 18, 2007

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


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930. UYA
4:22 AM GMT on October 18, 2007

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MO/AR/SRN IL/WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 713...714...

VALID 180356Z - 180500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 713...714...CONTINUES.

NEW WW/S WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF MO AND AR EXTENDING INTO SRN
IL/ WRN KY AS ONGOING AND NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ACROSS MO/AR
AND SPREADS ENEWD OVERNIGHT. THESE NEW WW/S WILL LIKELY REPLACE ALL
OR PARTS OF WW/S 713 AND 714.

STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
REGIONS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS WITH LOW LCLS EXTENDING NWD
INTO MO/IL/ WRN KY. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD E TOWARD THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AS BASE OF NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 80-90 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAIN DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH ATTENDANT
TORNADO THREAT.

ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A SQUALL LINE ACROSS CENTRAL MO
INTO NWRN AR...WITH RECENT STRONG WIND GUST REPORTS IN SWRN
MO...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT WITH ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE. FARTHER
S...DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..PETERS.. 10/18/2007
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929. flaboyinga
4:11 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Michfan, you scared the heck outa me til I saw the date on the tornado map.lol
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928. flaboyinga
4:08 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Good morning folks. Can anyone tell me how Patrap is? Also, how close to normal is Lake Okeechobee?
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927. moonlightcowboy
3:51 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
The area around 73w just north of SA has a nice anti-cyclone, low shear, some clouds and a little low pressure (1007 mb) emerging off the SA coast. A little spot of higher zonal shear out in front of it, and may be too close to the ull in the nw Caribbean.


850 mb vorticity
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29641
926. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:47 PM CDT on October 17, 2007
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Distubance Summary (0300z 18Oct)
=========================================
An area of convection (90W) persisted near 17.9N 149.0E or 250 NM northeast of Saipan. This relocation is warrented as the initial disturbance dissipated and a secondary circulation has consolidated east of the northern Mariana Islands. 2131z SSMI Image depicts this organizing circulation, with gradient-enhanced flow to the north and east, and limited weak westerly flow south and west of the developing center. A partial Quikscat Pass confirms the gradient-enhanced flow (25 knots from the southeast) in the northeastern quadrant of the system. Upper level subtropical ridge is reorienting, and wind shear values are expected to decrease as the disturbance moves under the ridge axis within the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 mb. Given the improving upper level environment and consolidating low level circulation, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is now upgraded to FAIR.
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925. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:01 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
supeior hurr. west wind tomorrow nov gales come early
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924. Skyepony (Mod)
3:39 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...

A SMALL WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 40 MILES EAST
OF CAPE CANAVERAL. IT HAS WOBBLED TOWARD THE NW IN THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION IS SE OF THE CENTER...WELL
OFFSHORE. EXCEPT FOR BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWER(S) TO THE VOLUSIA AND
NORTH BREVARD COAST...EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MINIMAL OVER
LAND. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWARD MOTION AND BE JUST
NORTH OF THE WATERS BY DAYBREAK.

KELLY
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 397 Comments: 43364
923. UYA
3:39 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
OK....Thanks Skye. So, it's just an un-official floater committed type non-Invest!
I get it now.
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922. UYA
3:38 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
I know there's a surface low out my backdoor...but I don't see no Lantic Invest number on the old NRL yet.
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921. Skyepony (Mod)
3:37 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
UYA~ I left the link to the floater it's on. Here's the NOAA tropical page. It has no number since it has only been tagged by NOAA, like I said.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 397 Comments: 43364
920. moonlightcowboy
3:31 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Nice spot, Skyepony! TS, the se movement is probably the tops getting blown off, reckon? Sitting closer to still! If shear rests, more development possible, but that front is coming across the CONUS, too, so it'd likely go fishing! Fiesty lookin' lil booger, though!

Here ya go, UYA. Link
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29641
919. Skyepony (Mod)
3:34 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Arkansas has several mesocyclones that recently formed. Some headed toward Little Rock.

That invest has been kinda wandering the last 6 hrs or so.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 397 Comments: 43364
918. KoritheMan
3:34 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
I don't ever want to see a tornado in my life, but I definitely don't want to see one at nighttime. I would much prefer severe weather to hit during the day where you can actually see what's going on and take necessary precautions.

Hope everyone stays safe.
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917. UYA
3:33 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
I don't see no Lantic Invests on no NRL! Where is the elusive Invest please? I know you say it's off East coast Florida....but someone please show me some Sat proof and an invest #.
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916. TampaSpin
11:30 PM EDT on October 17, 2007
Possible tornado E. of Memphis.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20538
915. TampaSpin
11:27 PM EDT on October 17, 2007
914. Skyepony 11:23 PM EDT on October 17, 2007
The swirl of Cape Canaveral has been tagged invest by NOAA & put on Floater 1.


It appears to be moving SE.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20538
914. Skyepony (Mod)
3:19 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
The swirl of Cape Canaveral has been tagged invest by NOAA & put on Floater 1.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 397 Comments: 43364
913. TampaSpin
3:03 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
nite cowboy
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20538
912. moonlightcowboy
2:57 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Thanks, all for watching, posting the severe weather outbreak. Not over yet!

I'm tired! Have a good sleep, all!

MLC<---------------out for some shut-eye!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29641
911. LakeShadow
2:43 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
I'm outta here, too...my heart goes out to you who are watching this stuff from your town's radars...even the threat of tornadoes make for sleepless nights. night tornadoes must be terrifying!
anyways, good night and good luck!
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910. yankeerebel
2:40 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
cool, keep it up... I'm outta here, have a good night
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909. Michfan
2:37 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Yeah i just hit my 10 year mark. 10 more to go.
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908. LakeShadow
2:35 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Link

Here's Thursdays forecast for Atlanta, GA...looks like rain...
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907. yankeerebel
2:27 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
cool, thank you for your service. Having spent almost 10 years in the Air Force,(civillian now) I know it's not easy. Keep up the good work. My job has taken me to Fr Rucker a few times. It's always weird goin to a military installation and being on the outside lookin in knowing you used to wear that uniform..
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906. Michfan
2:25 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Im stationed at Fort Rucker Alabama.
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905. LakeShadow
2:18 AM GMT on October 18, 2007

vortex signature heading to Wisc.
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904. Michfan
2:20 AM GMT on October 18, 2007


1910 ENTERPRISE COFFEE AL 3131 8585 *** 9 FATAL *** 8 KILLED IN SCHOOL WHEN CONCRETE WALL COLLAPSED IN HALLWAY. TORNADO PATH APPROX. 200 YARDS WIDE AND 10 MILES LONG. INFO BASED ON STORM SURVEY BY WCM ON (TAE)

In case anyone needs a frame of reference for what im talking about.
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903. yankeerebel
2:13 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
Are you in Enterprise, Michfan. I'm there once a month on business, I live in Mobile, but I've seen some of the devastation. Not cool and our prayers are always with ya.
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902. IrishWake
2:19 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
What's the latest rain forcast for Atlanta?
Thank
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901. Michfan
2:15 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
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900. cattlebaroness
2:04 AM GMT on October 18, 2007
V26R I am in Comanche, TX right now.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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