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Karen defeated; new disturbance a threat to the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:33 PM GMT on September 30, 2007

Wind shear put an end to Tropical Storm Karen yesterday. Karen's remains continue to generate a large area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands (Figure 1). This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed some rotation still exists near the surface, with winds up to 30 mph. Wind shear has fallen to 20 knots over Karen's remains, and some of the models forecast the shear will fall below 15 knots by Tuesday, which may allow redevelopment of the storm. Both the UKMET and NOGAPS model revive Karen later this week, and show it moving very slowly to the west towards the U.S., but well offshore. The GFS model keeps the shear high, and does not redevelop Karen.


Figure 1. This morning's visible satellite image.

Bahamas tropical disturbance
A potential significant threat area has developed today off the U.S. East Coast along an old frontal boundary. Several areas of heavy thunderstorm activity have started firing up along this old front. Wind shear is about 20 knots over the region today, so only slow development will occur. By Tuesday, the shear is forecast to drop below 15 knots, and most of the computer models are forecasting that a tropical depression will form near Florida or Cuba. This storm is forecast to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico, pushed by a strong ridge of high pressure expected to build in. An upper-level anticyclone aloft is expected to develop as well, providing an environment favorable for intensification. The UKMET model is forecasting a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane by Friday for the Texas/Mexico border region. The other models are not so aggressive, but all see the possibility of a tropical storm impacting the western Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana, Texas, or Mexico sometime Thursday through Saturday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into this system Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Texas is at highest risk from this potential storm.

Melissa
Tropical Depression Melissa is not long for this world, thanks to wind shear of 15-20 knots that is expected to increase further as Melissa heads northwest. Melissa is not a threat to any land areas, and will not be around three days from now.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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1035. NOLA70130
12:05 AM GMT on October 02, 2007
Well either way, It looks like this country survived another season without any intense hurricanes! So good news there!
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1034. IKE
2:07 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
NEW BLOG!
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1033. sngalla
1:43 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Lived in Va during the NE of 93. What a storm. Had 44 inches of snow with the one in 96.
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1032. weathermanwannabe
1:42 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Will BBL later (too quiet for me in here this morning!),but, it looks to me like that low around South Florida is trying to "break off" from the front and will be something to watch in the next few days as it makes its way into the Gulf...........See Yall this Afternoon...
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1031. Bonedog
1:32 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
yup and at that image bouy 44004 and a few other stations in the area recorded 971mb pressures. There were also a few unofficial readings from local stations that went as low as 961mb. Even spotted one on WU that went lower but discounted it.
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1030. NEwxguy
1:26 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
bonedog,
I went back and found the graphic you posted,pretty amazing picture,acutally had an eye
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1029. Bonedog
1:22 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
I found a new chart that ranks the NE's. Measured by beach erosion but usfual nontheless
ne

also this chart of the top 4
top4
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1028. Bonedog
1:20 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
yup. I posted the perfect example a page back. From last years Feb blizzard
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1027. NEwxguy
1:18 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Well,as you know they can be our own winter hurricanes
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1026. Bonedog
1:17 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
heheh I know NEwx. This weekend was absolutley wonderful wasn't it. Should stay that way till next weekend.

I was just saying its October 1st, just like folks here go crazy on June 1st.

I am dusting off my Nor'Easter files as we speak. I find them fascinating. More so then a tropical system usually.
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1025. Bonedog
1:15 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
LOL
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1024. NEwxguy
1:14 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Bonedog,
Here in Massachusetts,we don't won't to think about no'easters yet,were still enjoying late summer weather
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1023. STSUCKS
1:12 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
I'm gonna have to get me a new one now because Humberto hit TX last month...lol
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1022. STSUCKS
1:10 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Cool ok Bonedog...its $18.00
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1021. Bonedog
1:09 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
thanks STS I will go check it out now.
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1020. weathermanwannabe
1:08 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Intersting from that NHC Hurricane Strike Map that the two relatively "safe" zones in Florida (historically) are in the Big Bend region between Tampa and Tallahassee on the Gulf side and between Ft. Pierce and Jacksonville on the Atlantic side............The rest of Florida and the Gulf Coast region have been target areas over the last 50 years......
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1019. STSUCKS
1:04 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Yeah Bone I have that poster...its framed and on my wall...go to the National Climatic Data Center website and you can purchase it from there!!!
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1018. Bonedog
1:03 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
yea STS I found that on the NHC site. I am looking to see if one is for sale somewhere
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1017. Bonedog
1:02 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
just an FYI October 1st is the start of the Nor'Easter season :)
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1016. STSUCKS
1:01 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Hey Bonedog I saw the poster that you posted earlier of the all the hurricane landfalls from 1950-2005
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1015. zoomiami
1:00 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Lots of thunderstorms, dark as night & raining cats & dogs down here right now!
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1014. Bonedog
12:59 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
wow slow still I see
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1013. sngalla
12:51 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Just issued:

... Flood Watch in effect for Miami-Dade and Broward counties...

... Flood Watch in effect through this evening...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida... including the
following areas... coastal Broward... coastal Miami Dade... far
South Miami Dade... inland Broward... inland Miami Dade... Metro
Broward and Metro Miami Dade.
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1012. NEwxguy
12:49 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
fronts are going further south,but don't have a lot of cold air,but definitely pushing drier air.still above normal temps here in the northeast
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1011. hurricanehanna
12:49 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Thanks - hopefully that will deter the system over FL/Bahamas from doing anything too serious
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1010. Tazmanian
12:47 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Posted By: hurricanehanna at 5:45 AM PDT on October 01, 2007.

Taz, is the shear expected to continue over the GOM?


it looks like it has cold fronts are now comeing more S
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1009. hurricanehanna
12:45 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Taz, is the shear expected to continue over the GOM?
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1008. Tazmanian
12:41 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
i see that wind shear is now 40kt in the gulf and this about evere where you seee with olny a few 5 to 10kt here and there
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1007. IKE
12:40 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
I would expect an invest to be declared on the area east of Florida sometime today.
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1006. NEwxguy
12:39 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
kind of strange coming in this morning and seeing nothing out there except for a couple of disturbances. looking at the wv loop in the atlantic,definitely likes like a fall environment with lots of troughs marching off the east coast
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1005. IKE
12:38 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
401 am EDT Monday Oct 1 2007


..locally heavy rainfall possible Palm Beach/Broward/Miami-Dade
counties today...


Discussion...water vapor imagery shows a middle/upper level low
just off the SW Florida coast which has pinched off from the broad
trough. This low is moving SW and placing the local area in a
divergent area aloft...and this divergence will continue across
the area throughout the day. Meanwhile...a weak low near the
central Bahamas is forecast to move west-southwest across the Florida Straits
through tonight...then eventually into the Gulf...according to the
GFS which is the favored model over the NAM as per HPC.
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1004. BOBA
12:38 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
I only pop in occaisionally, thank you all for the informative posts.
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1003. sngalla
12:36 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
South Florida
Dania Beach, FL
Station owned by: sngalla
Updated: 2 seconds ago (History)
Elevation: 8 ft / 2 m
Temperature: 75.9 °F / 24.4 °C
Dew Point: 75.3 °F / 24.1 °C
Humidity: 98%
Wind: 20 mph / 32 km/h / 8.7 m/s from the NE
Wind Gust: 26 mph / 43 km/h / 11.8 m/s
Pressure: 29.90 in / 1012 hPa (Steady)
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1002. NEwxguy
12:35 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Good morning all, looks like you people in south florida are getting some raing this morning.
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1001. weathermanwannabe
12:34 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Will be lurking today from here in Tally but my friends and parents are in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale......Looks like quite a "swirl" on the water vapor loop down there this morning....Please be careful down there today...(would hate to be on I-95 in South Florida right now.....Don't miss it)...
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1000. IKE
12:32 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Posted By: aubiesgirl at 7:15 AM CDT on October 01, 2007.
Ike..if you still here...when are we ever gonna get some rain..lol


By the middle of the week, if the GOM low acts as forecasts.
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999. withoutaclue
12:32 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
It's been pretty windy & rainy here in Stuart, FL. Had a pretty good downpour about 30 min. ago. We've had so much rain lately I haven't had my sprinklers on for 3 weeks.
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998. icmoore
12:32 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Dumb question in Melrose (near Gainesville) for the last 2 days we are getting peppered with little storms and today they say even up here inland our winds today would be 14-22 mph with 33 mph gust. Is this associated wit the weather down south? Thanks!
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997. Stoopid1
12:28 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Wind was about 25-30mph on the coast, now I'm inland some and it's 20mph. No rain now, but there were some showers earlier.
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996. southbeachdude
12:20 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
the weather is also getting worse around UM in Coral Gables....
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995. leelee75k
12:17 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
this situation over south florida reminds me of that no name storm we had in I think 1998 that flooded miami and broward. Hopefully it doesn't develop too much while we're all at school and work.
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994. hurricane23
12:16 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Iam getting rocked here at the airport!Heavy rains with very gusty winds in excess of 30-35mph...
Be careful if your driving around south florida. Adrian
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993. Bonedog
12:16 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
yea SJ haven't seen any model really ramping this up at all. Lowest I have seen is a 990mb storm. I think with it being a broad disturbance it will take a while to spin up (if at all). Reminds me of TD10 scenario where it needs to get warm cored first then develope.
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992. aubiesgirl
12:15 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Ike..if you still here...when are we ever gonna get some rain..lol
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991. StormJunkie
12:14 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Back to work, see y'all in a couple of hours.

Quick Links
-Forecast models, imagery, learning videos, and much more.
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990. sngalla
12:14 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Morning all!Dark and dreary here in Ft Lauderdale. Rain gauge says 0.91 since midnite.
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989. sporteguy03
12:13 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Good Night Lurkers, Trolls, and WUBAs.
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988. StormJunkie
12:10 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Morning all, good to see everyone :~)

06z GFS does not make much out of the Bahama disturbance, for whatever it is worth. Still something to keep an eye on though.

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987. Bonedog
12:09 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
yes but chances are low at the moment
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986. Nashda
12:09 PM GMT on October 01, 2007
Ok, Thanks Bonedog, so it still has to be watched.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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