Complicated Gulf of Mexico disturbance 93L primarily a rain threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on September 20, 2007

A very complicated weather situation over the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic waters off the Southeast U.S. coast associated with a non-tropical low pressure system (93L), has brought heavy rains to Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina over the past 12 hours. A cold-cored upper level low pressure system a few hundred miles southwest of Tampa, Florida is primarily responsible for the the action. Late yesterday afternoon, a separate area of surface low pressure formed near Daytona Beach, bringing high surf and heavy rains of up to five inches along the Florida coast from Daytona to Jacksonville. This low moved inland over Florida, but the associated surge of moisture rotated northwards all the way to South Carolina. High surf warnings and coastal flood watches have been posted for Charleston, South Carolina today. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed winds up to 50 mph well offshore of South Carolina. These winds have created a storm surge of up to two feet along the South Carolina coast. This second low pressure system was identified as "93L" by NHC beginning at 2 pm EDT yesterday. However, now that the low has weakened crossing the Florida Peninsula, the "93L" designation has been taken away from it, and attached to the upper level low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico.

Recent Satellite loops and the Tampa Bay long range radar show that this non-tropical low pressure system is beginning to get more organized and is acquiring tropical characteristics. Substantial pressure falls are occurring at the surface underneath the upper level low, and this system is on its way to becoming a subtropical depression. A surface low pressure system vertically aligned with a cold-cored upper level low will usually take two or more days to make the transition to a warm-cored tropical storm. Rapid intensification cannot occur until the system is fully warm-core. Since landfall is expected Saturday between the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Louisiana, 93L probably does not have time to become fully tropical. If 93L makes landfall Saturday, it should not have winds stronger than about 55 mph. The GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS intensity models all keep 93L's winds below 55 mph. If the storm spends an extra day over water and makes it to Texas, as the ECMWF model predicts, 93L could become fully tropical and make landfall as a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds. However, there is plenty of dry air in the environment, and I don't think the storm will be able to intensify to a strong tropical storm. The primary threat from 93L will be heavy rain, and the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas border can expect a soaking from this system.

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 93L this afternoon at 2pm EDT.


Figure 1. Current long range radar out of Tampa Bay, Florida.


Remains of Ingrid
The remains of Tropical Storm Ingrid are still active, triggering some heavy thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Puerto Rico long range radar and satellite loops show that this activity remains disorganized. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots today, and we will need to watch this area for development. However, the upper level winds are not in a particularly favorable configuration, and Ingrid's remains are so disorganized, that any development will be slow to occur. The remains of Ingrid are in a region of weak steering currents, and little movement is expected over the next 3-5 days.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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663. IKE
12:57 PM CDT on September 20, 2007
Surface winds are 30-35 mph...if they can close it off...it's at least a TD or STD.
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662. smmcdavid
12:56 PM CDT on September 20, 2007
Is there really still a chance that 93L could make it all the way to Texas? Just want to know how much I should keep up with this thing.
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661. wederwatcher555
5:57 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
yall think its a STD OR A TD?
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660. tampabayfish
5:56 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
Stormhype, they have estimated surface winds associated with flight level winds... ~30 knots
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659. wederwatcher555
5:56 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
when yall think this will be a depression? 93L
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658. TampaSpin
1:54 PM EDT on September 20, 2007
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 12:41 PM CDT on September 20, 2007.
Link


maybe a tropical depression already


Yup...I agree.
I agree also....Maybe even stronger...than a Depression i think...
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657. hurricanehanna
12:55 PM CDT on September 20, 2007
Thelmores, why aren't they logging any pressures?
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656. Bonedog
1:51 PM EDT on September 20, 2007
yea you all should see it build all day tomorrow. My feeling is you will have it till Saturday afternoon when it should start droping off. Wish I was there :( Haven't had any decent days this season which is coming to a quick end as we are already in the 60s for water temp
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655. surfmom
5:51 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
Thanks Storm Hype, yeaa I was puzzled by the drop in ocean temp...yesterday it was 87, two days ago steady 88. Means a long sleeve rashguard for me tomorrow. I think your forecast on water/wave conditions was correct and everything I wanted to hear. Especially the easy wind. I broke my nose during Frances when my board got picked up in the water and smashed me in the face....after that, if it's over 15 knots --it's for the boys only...I am too light and small (5'2") my board is 8'1"
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654. cchsweatherman
5:54 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
Does anyone have any comment on the SW Caribbean? Thanks.
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653. emagirl
5:54 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
i do not really understand the recon data could someone explain ....do you think HH will find a TD or maybe TS..../
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651. nrtiwlnvragn
5:54 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
Posted By: thelmores at 5:40 PM GMT on September 20, 2007.

"41,000 T0 450,000 FT"

man, they are flying to outer space! LOL


Gotta update that space forecast LOL

Link
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650. ioweitall2charley
1:47 PM EDT on September 20, 2007
I am not seeing any west movement - maybe its just my eyes but I see a nice convection forming with some banding and spin - winds here in Cape Coral at on shore with slight gust every once in a while....again I have to ask - if 93L or whatever the heck it's name is, is just sitting and spinning in nice warm waters - what does that mean for intensification and any chance this things becomes a TD or TS and comes into the SW FL Coast??
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649. thelmores
5:51 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
17:50:30Z 28.25N 87.57W 485.4 mb
(~ 14.33 inHg) 6,085 meters
(~ 19,964 feet) - 295 meters
(~ 968 feet) From 20 at 47 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 54.0 mph) -7.5C
(~ 18.5F) -30.2C
(~ -22.4F) 47 knots
(~ 54.0 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 30.0 knots (~ 34.5 mph)
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648. aspectre
5:49 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
cchsweatherman, they're airport codes:
TPA Tampa International Airport
EYW Key West International Airport
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645. surfmom
5:47 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
you know it! Can't wait to wake up tomorrow and hear the breakers in the distance. Would be nice if 93L churned in the Gulf for a while making groundswell, but.....for the better good of All I'll just be content with a one day window.
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644. LuvsStorms
5:48 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
That's beautiful Taz!!!! *sigh* I love snow!!!! I DO wishcast snow here in Louisiana--every day the winter!!
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643. StormHype
5:45 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
surfmom.... 82F wow, gulf really has cooled off during the last week. Tomorrow should be the best chance for any surf and winds from this since SRQ will get the square-on SW flow as this thing moves to the north.
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642. Bonedog
1:45 PM EDT on September 20, 2007
there ya go surfmom some nice glassy breakers for you all in the Northern Gulf :) Have fun
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641. mostormspotter
12:45 PM CDT on September 20, 2007
Let's lay off the Recon reports people, 93 may know that we are on to him

Loose lips sink ships...
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640. Patrap
12:45 PM CDT on September 20, 2007
We will lose the CoC later this afternoon to the Tampa Radar as it slides west. Will be outta range for good look at the Left side.


Link
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638. thelmores
5:45 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 17:33Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 29.4N 88.7W (View map)
Location: 73 miles (117 km) to the SSE (162) from Gulfport, MS, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 5,800 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 20 at 37 knots (From the NNE at ~ 42.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -8C
Flight Level Dew Point: -33C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
500 mb Surface Altitude: 5,880 geopotential meters
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637. thelmores
5:44 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
Pat, maybe you should pick a couple instead of posting them all! LOL
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636. Dakster
5:35 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
Stormhype - One can only hope you are indeed, completely correct. It would be nice to have another break from tropical storms/hurricanes.
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635. surfmom
5:34 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
Srq gomex beach is 82 degrees. Waiting for the swell to show up..nothing yet, surfers think to see some action starting late this afternoon, Friday - take the day off from work-- and Saturday. Chest to head high tomorrow @ S.facing beaches. The clouds and light are incredible today. Horses very frisky,naughty today. Think they are relieved and happy for the cloud cover...I know I am --surprisingly not much rain here --huge cumulus when I looked south, south west this morning....we really could use some rain here --this is like a teaser. Surfboard is ready to hit the water tomorrow at daybreak
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634. thelmores
5:41 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
RECON already found winds greater than TS force....

17:38:30Z 29.00N 88.45W 485.4 mb
(~ 14.33 inHg) 6,115 meters
(~ 20,062 feet) - 327 meters
(~ 1,073 feet) From 16 at 42 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 48.3 mph) -7.9C
(~ 17.8F) -27.2C
(~ -17.0F) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 35.0 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
Tropical Storm
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633. Patrap
12:43 PM CDT on September 20, 2007
There in the Tube,..5 X 5
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632. IKE
12:43 PM CDT on September 20, 2007
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 12:41 PM CDT on September 20, 2007.
Link


maybe a tropical depression already


Yup...I agree.
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631. StormHype
5:37 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
I beg to differ Storm Hype...check this out.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tampa_Bay_Hurricane_of_1921


So what makes you think this year is analogous to 1921?

I think we might have 4 weeks left for a US landfalling TS. Even during the very recent and unusually hyperactive year of 2005, the last US landfalling storm was Wilma which came by in Oct 24 and that was pushed through by a very strong cold front. I was in Marco Is FL for that and the rain was ice cold on the back side of this storm and temps dropped into the 50s that night.

US storm chasers better get some prozac on hand if something doesn't materialize for them soon.
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630. Bonedog
1:41 PM EDT on September 20, 2007
from their sfmr peak surface wind measurment

35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph)

location of measurement
29.00N 88.45W


might be something to this thing after all
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628. Patrap
12:41 PM CDT on September 20, 2007

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 17:41Z
Date: September 20, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 306)
Mission Purpose: Investigate eight suspect area (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2 (See all HDOB messages from this mission.)
Observation Number: 05
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic ( About )
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
17:31:00Z 29.60N 88.83W 505.8 mb
(~ 14.94 inHg) 5,786 meters
(~ 18,983 feet) - 300 meters
(~ 984 feet) From 8 at 35 knots
(From the N at ~ 40.2 mph) -4.7C*
(~ 23.5F*) -* 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 28.2 knots (~ 32.4 mph)
80.6%
17:31:30Z 29.55N 88.82W 498.8 mb
(~ 14.73 inHg) 5,896 meters
(~ 19,344 feet) - 307 meters
(~ 1,007 feet) From 12 at 36 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 41.4 mph) -5.5C*
(~ 22.1F*) -* 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 31.1 knots (~ 35.8 mph)
86.5%
17:32:00Z 29.52N 88.78W 492.9 mb
(~ 14.56 inHg) 5,990 meters
(~ 19,652 feet) - 312 meters
(~ 1,024 feet) From 14 at 38 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 43.7 mph) -6.3C*
(~ 20.7F*) -8.1C*
(~ 17.4F*) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 31.0 knots (~ 35.6 mph)
81.6%
17:32:30Z 29.48N 88.77W 486.6 mb
(~ 14.37 inHg) 6,091 meters
(~ 19,984 feet) - 319 meters
(~ 1,047 feet) From 16 at 37 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 42.5 mph) -7.1C
(~ 19.2F) -23.1C
(~ -9.6F) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 32.0 knots (~ 36.8 mph)
86.5%
17:33:00Z 29.45N 88.75W 485.0 mb
(~ 14.32 inHg) 6,118 meters
(~ 20,072 feet) - 322 meters
(~ 1,056 feet) From 17 at 36 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 41.4 mph) -7.5C
(~ 18.5F) -32.2C
(~ -26.0F) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 32.1 knots (~ 36.9 mph)
89.2%
17:33:30Z 29.42N 88.72W 485.0 mb
(~ 14.32 inHg) 6,118 meters
(~ 20,072 feet) - 323 meters
(~ 1,060 feet) From 17 at 36 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 41.4 mph) -7.5C
(~ 18.5F) -33.1C
(~ -27.6F) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 31.1 knots (~ 35.8 mph)
86.5%
17:34:00Z 29.37N 88.68W 485.3 mb
(~ 14.33 inHg) 6,117 meters
(~ 20,069 feet) - 324 meters
(~ 1,063 feet) From 16 at 38 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 43.7 mph) -7.5C
(~ 18.5F) -32.3C
(~ -26.1F) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 32.0 knots (~ 36.8 mph)
84.2%
17:34:30Z 29.33N 88.67W 485.6 mb
(~ 14.34 inHg) 6,111 meters
(~ 20,049 feet) - 324 meters
(~ 1,063 feet) From 13 at 40 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 46.0 mph) -7.5C
(~ 18.5F) -31.7C
(~ -25.1F) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 33.0 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
82.5%
17:35:00Z 29.28N 88.63W 485.0 mb
(~ 14.32 inHg) 6,119 meters
(~ 20,075 feet) - 322 meters
(~ 1,056 feet) From 12 at 40 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 46.0 mph) -7.8C
(~ 18.0F) -31.0C
(~ -23.8F) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 31.0 knots (~ 35.6 mph)
77.5%
17:35:30Z 29.25N 88.62W 484.5 mb
(~ 14.31 inHg) 6,128 meters
(~ 20,105 feet) - 323 meters
(~ 1,060 feet) From 13 at 40 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 46.0 mph) -8.0C
(~ 17.6F) -30.3C
(~ -22.5F) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 32.0 knots (~ 36.8 mph)
80.0%
17:36:00Z 29.22N 88.58W 485.3 mb
(~ 14.33 inHg) 6,117 meters
(~ 20,069 feet) - 324 meters
(~ 1,063 feet) From 13 at 41 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 47.1 mph) -8.0C
(~ 17.6F) -29.8C
(~ -21.6F) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 34.0 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 82.9%
17:36:30Z 29.17N 88.55W 485.3 mb
(~ 14.33 inHg) 6,116 meters
(~ 20,066 feet) - 325 meters
(~ 1,066 feet) From 14 at 41 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 47.1 mph) -8.0C
(~ 17.6F) -29.5C
(~ -21.1F) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 33.0 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
80.5%
17:37:00Z 29.13N 88.53W 485.4 mb
(~ 14.33 inHg) 6,116 meters
(~ 20,066 feet) - 326 meters
(~ 1,070 feet) From 15 at 41 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 47.1 mph) -8.0C
(~ 17.6F) -29.3C
(~ -20.7F) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 34.0 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 82.9%
17:37:30Z 29.08N 88.50W 485.6 mb
(~ 14.34 inHg) 6,114 meters
(~ 20,059 feet) - 326 meters
(~ 1,070 feet) From 16 at 41 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 47.1 mph) -8.0C
(~ 17.6F) -28.6C
(~ -19.5F) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 35.0 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
Tropical Storm 85.4%
17:38:00Z 29.05N 88.47W 485.4 mb
(~ 14.33 inHg) 6,115 meters
(~ 20,062 feet) - 326 meters
(~ 1,070 feet) From 14 at 41 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 47.1 mph) -8.0C
(~ 17.6F) -27.1C
(~ -16.8F) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 33.0 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
80.5%
17:38:30Z 29.00N 88.45W 485.4 mb
(~ 14.33 inHg) 6,115 meters
(~ 20,062 feet) - 327 meters
(~ 1,073 feet) From 16 at 42 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 48.3 mph) -7.9C
(~ 17.8F) -27.2C
(~ -17.0F) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 35.0 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
Tropical Storm 83.3%
17:39:00Z 28.97N 88.42W 485.7 mb
(~ 14.34 inHg) 6,112 meters
(~ 20,052 feet) - 325 meters
(~ 1,066 feet) From 16 at 42 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 48.3 mph) -7.8C
(~ 18.0F) -27.1C
(~ -16.8F) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 30.0 knots (~ 34.5 mph)
71.4%
17:39:30Z 28.92N 88.38W 485.4 mb
(~ 14.33 inHg) 6,114 meters
(~ 20,059 feet) - 324 meters
(~ 1,063 feet) From 16 at 43 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 49.4 mph) -8.0C
(~ 17.6F) -27.1C
(~ -16.8F) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 30.0 knots (~ 34.5 mph)
69.8%
17:40:00Z 28.87N 88.35W 485.6 mb
(~ 14.34 inHg) 6,111 meters
(~ 20,049 feet) - 322 meters
(~ 1,056 feet) From 17 at 43 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 49.4 mph) -7.9C
(~ 17.8F) -27.2C
(~ -17.0F) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 30.0 knots (~ 34.5 mph)
69.8%
17:40:30Z 28.83N 88.33W 485.4 mb
(~ 14.33 inHg) 6,111 meters
(~ 20,049 feet) - 320 meters
(~ 1,050 feet) From 19 at 43 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 49.4 mph) -8.0C
(~ 17.6F) -27.4C
(~ -17.3F) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 31.0 knots (~ 35.6 mph)
72.1%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Pe
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627. nash28
5:40 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
TPA- Tampa
EYW- Key West

Pressures in Apollo Beach have been steadily falling today, but once again, the rain just will not come!
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626. Chucktown
5:41 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
TPA - Tampa
EYW - Key West
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625. thelmores
5:40 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
yea Ike..... but which 93L does those model's initialize? LOL
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624. FloridaScuba
1:40 PM EDT on September 20, 2007
but what do TPA and EYW stand for?

TamPA and kEYWest
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622. Talon170
5:37 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
Here in Ft. Myers, FL rain has stopped and the sun is peeking out. However, the pressure is slowly falling and winds are picking up.
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621. thelmores
5:39 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
"41,000 T0 450,000 FT"

man, they are flying to outer space! LOL
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620. cchsweatherman
5:37 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
Chucktown, I have a question. I hope that I'm not stupid for asking this since I should know it, but what do TPA and EYW stand for? Thanks.
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619. IKE
12:35 PM CDT on September 20, 2007
12Z CMC aims 93L to SE Mississippi....

Link

12Z UKMET does the same....

Link
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617. tampabayfish
5:36 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
RECON leaving from key west?
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616. FLWeatherFreak91
5:37 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
I beg to differ Storm Hype...check this out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tampa_Bay_Hurricane_of_1921
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615. thelmores
5:34 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
681
NOUS42 KNHC 201530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 20 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-118

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 42
A. 21/1800Z
B. NOAA2 0510A CYCLONE
C. 21/1300Z
D. 27.4N 86.8W
E. 21/1400Z TO 2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 49
A. 22/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0610A CYCLONE
C. 21/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 T0 450,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE --NOAA 43
A. 22/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0710A CYCLONE
C. 21/2200Z
D. 28.0N 87.5W
E. 21/2300Z TO 22/0430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR --TEAL 70
A. 22/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0810A CYCLONE
C. 22/0430Z
D. 28.5N 88.2W
E. 22/0500Z TO 22/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 22/1500Z.
3. REMARKS: AN AEROSONDE WILL DEPART KEY WEST AT 21/1900Z,
OPERATE IN THE STORM AT 3,OOO FT OR BELOW AND DEPART
THE STORM BY 22/0500Z.
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614. Chucktown
5:30 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
You know, looking at the current visible, there are definitely two separate rotations. One just west of TPA, the other just west of EYW. None of the models are initializing this and until they do so, you should take each model with a grain of salt.
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613. StormJunkie
5:33 PM GMT on September 20, 2007
Already have a call in Skye, seriously. Will be sure to update when they call back.
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Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Labrador ice