Katrina batters Miami, and is back to hurricane status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:09 PM GMT on August 26, 2005

Katrina is a hurricane again, after spending just seven hours over land, and briefly (for a four hour stretch) weakening to a 70 mph tropical storm. The unexpected southwestward path taken by Katrina (but hinted at for a long time by the GFDL model) put Miami in the bullseye for Katrina's strongest winds and heaviest rains. The eye passed directly over the National Hurricane Center and the Miami radar site, and Doppler Radar estimates of rainfall amounts show over ten inches of rain in a narrow band extending over the Hurricane Center. Some modest wind and flooding damage was reported by the media, consistent with typical Category 1 hurricane conditions. Four deaths, three from falling trees have been reported so far. Overall, Miami is extremely lucky--had Katrina had an additional 12 - 24 hours over water, she may have some ashore as a Category 3 hurricane.

Katrina has those 12 - 24 hours now, and more. The Miami radar loop continues to a well-organized storm, with a plainly visible eye. Upper level outflow is improving and slowing expanding. Katrina is in an almost ideal environment for intensification--31 to 32C waters, light shear, and no dry air. Katrina will likely be a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday night, and possibly a Category 4.

Although Katrina is currently moving just south of due west, the computer track models unanimously agree that a trough moving across the central U.S. this weekend will "pick up" Katrina and force it on a northward path towards the Florida Panhandle. These model predictions are high-confidence predictions, as the upper air environment around the hurricane is well-characterized thanks to the NOAA jet dropsonde mission flown last night. The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly another mission tonight. While New Orleans centainly needs to keep a wary eye on Katrina, it seems that the Florida Panhandle has its usual hurricane magnet in place, and the same piece of coast punished by Ivan and Dennis is destined for another strike by a major hurricane.

What's behind Katrina?
A large area of disturbed weather north of Hispanolia has diminished since yesterday. This disturbance lies in an area of high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next few days. The tropical wave spinning 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands is still experiencing wind shear, but still has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend.

Katrina blogs
For observations of what's happening now in Southwest Florida, we have several bloggers writing today:

labsr4me (Naples, SW Florida)

Zeenster (Cape Coral, SW Florida)

evolution (Charlotte Harbor, SW Florida)

Dr. Jeff Masters

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64. oriondarkwood
9:52 AM EDT on August 26, 2005
All,

After taking a more detail look at the data. Looks like a cat3/4 hit on the panhandle, their is really nothing to stop Katrina from intenseifiying. And the front will push her quickly. I say her chances for slipping under the front are less than 10%. The only good news is this front will create strong sheer for anything out in the ocean right now (althought a couple of the models create a strong hurricane out of the tropical wave about 1000 miles out from the leeward islands and push it up in the middle of the Altanic at the end of the period, ie 144hours out)
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63. STORMTOP
2:01 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
get real i dont like her on that wsw course the eastrelies will really pick her speed up about 10-12mph...katrina is already passed the 82 degree long and the dumb trough is still stationary in the rockies..i dont like this at all...
62. MandyFSU
2:04 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Well put SEFL
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
61. whirlwind
10:02 AM EDT on August 26, 2005
Im on noones side but what if:

95% of people here say's StormTop's prediction wont happen. They call him names and harass him. Wouldnt it be something if he IS CORRECT. What should he do?? Tell everyone off?? I know I would....
60. whitewabit
1:59 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
whirlwind

if a cat 4 storm hits the panhandle of fl - there will be damage above the cat 4 level - my reasoning is - what is partialy destroyed and repairs not completed from last years storms will be totally destroyed - other buildings and must include standing trees my be weaked to a point where they will be destroyed also.
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59. TotalDestruction
02:00 PM GMT op 26 Augustus, 2005
/offtopic

GetReal = STORMTOP = STORMFLOP!


/ontopic

I am in love with Katrina... :P
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58. SEFL
9:56 AM EDT on August 26, 2005
For whoever it was who asked about wind speed at landfall. From the OFFICIAL NWS bulletin last night.

"...EYE OF KATRINA CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH
AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH WITH 80 MPH WINDS"

I also think Stormtop provides useful information. IMO if you would just present it conversationally and explain your scenarios and make room for possible exceptions, we would all find it more useful. But to barge in here with the NWS bs and then announce you will be back for your next update in 3 hours is just a bit arrogant.
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57. Valence
1:57 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Hey guys -

My attention is needed elsewhere for the time being. I'll be back on here in a few hours, especially to check out the lastest model runs.

I've also starting posting on my own blog, for the handfull of you that are interested. :- )

Until later... (assuming I keep power!)

JV
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56. MJTribe
9:51 AM EDT on August 26, 2005
Outstanding day in Clearwater/ Largo area. Wind gusts to 26mph, averaging about 13, 65 % humidity. Nice change hope it stays that way.
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55. whirlwind
9:48 AM EDT on August 26, 2005
StormTop/Lefty...she wasnt bad at all. I could compare her to Jeanne, few bands of gusty wind and rain, but the rain was around 3-4 inches here in Palm Beach.

Now that Lefty is saying a possible cat4, StormTop you may be right. If she plays her game right a cat 5 may be around the corner. She was smart last night to turn south....
54. 53rdWeatherRECON
1:41 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Storm Top. I will be the first to say that I didn't think it was going to hit the keys. You said it would. It is currently hammering the Keys. Right on man. You are a relativly smart kid. I appreciate all of your insights. They are good. I actually include some of your information in my calculations. I just want to make sure you don't include your own wishes into your forecast. When you say "We" need this to happen you are disregarding all of the other people that are not where you are. All I'm saying is to stay objective.
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
53. hookedontropics
1:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
It looks like the eye is clearing out, still moving west. It will be interesting to see the 11AM forecast.
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52. GetReal
1:45 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
...Katrina getting better organized over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
as it moves slowly away from South Florida...
...Flooding still a threat for extreme southern Florida...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida
Keys and Florida Bay from Dry Tortugas northward... along the East
Coast of Florida from Florida City northward to Deerfield Beach...
and along the Gulf Coast of Florida from south of Florida City
westward and northward to Longboat Key. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of the Florida
West Coast from north of Longboat Key to Anclote Key. A tropical
storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area... generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 9 am EDT...1300z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 25.2 north... longitude 82.0 west or about 45
miles north-northwest of Key West Florida and about 65 miles
south-southwest of Naples Florida.

Katrina is moving erratically toward the west near 6 mph and this
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours... with a
slight increase in forward speed.

Information from NOAA Doppler radars indicate maximum sustained
winds are near 75 mph... with higher gusts. Katrina is a category
one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours. An Air Force Reserve unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Katrina later
this morning.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the
center... and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 85 miles. During the past hour or so...a wind gust to 50 mph
was reported at Marathon and a gust to 46 mph was reported at
the Key West Naval Air Station.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb...29.15 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
can be expected along the West Coast of Florida in areas of onshore
flow south of Venice... and in Florida Bay. Storm surge should
continue to decrease this morning along the East Coast of Florida.

Katrina is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 8 inches
over extreme southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Isolated storm
total amounts of 15 to 20 inches are possible.

Isolated tornadoes are possible today over southern Florida and the
Florida Keys.

Repeating the 9 am EDT position...25.2 N... 82.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 987 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Stewart


$$

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51. USAmet
1:43 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
punkasshans, think you may have it correct with what you say... the water is very warm right now and that will only increase strength. However, I think you may see an Ivan situation here with a rapid weakening before landfull. Really thinking that shear will hopefully hold it down from becoming too large. As for the strength of this hurricane, I see nothing stopping it of becoming a cat4 while in the gulf but I just see it making landfall as a 3.
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50. hookedontropics
1:42 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
I think we should all pay attention, heck I am in VA and I am watching to see if we have tornadoes from this as well. This storm will effect 1/3 or the US when all is said and done with it. Alot has to happen for this storm to be a Cat 4 at landfall. I think it great everyone has an opinion, but do not disguise it in an all points bulletin.
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49. oriondarkwood
9:44 AM EDT on August 26, 2005
gnshpdude,

Murphy Laws of Combat
19. There is no such thing as an atheist in a foxhole.

http://www.military-quotes.com/murphy.htm (LOL)
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48. automeris
1:26 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
gnshpdude asked:

> What causes the differences in the damage from two CAT 3

Speed of passage is the big thing. Or, duration of passage, so a huge storm like Ivan will do more damage than the smaller Dennis. The longer an area is subjected to the wind, surge, and rain, the greater the damage.

Depending on the terrain, the amount of rainfall, which is almost independant of intensity, is a major factor in how much damage is done. TS Allison is a great example. And rainfall, again, is partly a function of duration. Since Allison was practically stationary for so long, she did a lot of damage. Most of the lives lost to Mitch were due to flooding, and bad roads.

If the rain hits before the winds, more trees will fall, and more buildings will collapse.

Also, some storms will spawn more locally intense winds than others, and tornados. The category only reflects the sustained maximum winds, not high end aberations which can do tremendous damage.
47. MandyFSU
1:41 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Thanks, JV.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
46. muffinanne
1:35 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Muffin Anne from Destin here. Would someone please flip the magnet switch to OFF! Thank you.
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45. GetReal
1:30 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Katrina appears to have resumed wsw motion, and getting much more organized according to the latest high resolution satellite photos. Katrina is winding up into tightly organized bomb. The movement appears to be in response to the ene flow, visible on water vapor images, over katrina. How will this continued wsw movement affect the TPC predicted landfall point?
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44. MandyFSU
1:34 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
hookedontropics- i agree. there's a fine line between putting everyone on notice and inducing an all out panic. I appreciate Stormtop's efforts to make everyone aware of the seriousness of the situation, and even though we are expressing opinions, I'd like to think they're "educated" guesses and not opinions to insight a riot. Although I'ms ure StormTop is just doing what he/she (sorry) feels is necessary, we do need to be careful.

Personally, I'm skiddish b/c I'm afraid that Tally's 9 lives are about out and I'd hate to think that they ran out on Katrina and not some dinky TS like Bonnie last year. As the storm gets closer, I sure hope one of y'all will say "MANDY! Get the HECK outta there!" If I need to. By the same token, please feel free to say "MANDY! Shut the heck up, you guys aren't going to get ANYTHING outta this!" :-)
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43. SherryB
1:37 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
After dealing with Charley and his erratic movements, I am not sure what to think anymore..From all that I have seen and heard..I think it is safe to say that anyone from LA to FL needs to pay attention to this...who knows the thing may take an erratic right turn and cut clear across FL( not that I want that to happend because I am in central FL) BUT...it seems to have a mind of its own (going further south than expected, etc...)
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42. punkasshans
1:33 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
This storm has a VERY good chance of reaching category 4 before it makes landfall. But I think much like Ivan and Dennis we will see a strong storm (low category 4/ high 3) and than a drastic weakening before landfall. I predict a category 2/3 (right on the borderline) at landfall near the same region that was hit by Ivan and Dennis. It sucks, but thats what is shaping out to occur.

Hopefully I am wrong and the storm falls apart when the front moves closer. Pray for shear. Its the only hope at this point with this storm. (water temps are hot, dry air is gone. . .)
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41. Valence
1:31 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Mandy-

The already ran the BAMM at 8 am this morning.

As Dr. Jeff said in his blog, they ran a NOAA jet dropsonde mission last night. I imagine that we should new runs of most, if not all of the models, by noon today.

But Mandy, dont rely on the models for planning on what to do during the hurricane. These things can get really dicey as they near the coast line and the outer core starts to interact with the different atmospheric conditions on land.

The models, who are in consensu, are showing a landfall somewthere between Panama City and Gulf Shores, AL. I suggest you starting preparing your house, and figuring out where you are going to be staying on Sunday and beyond. Good Luck.

JV
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40. gnshpdude
1:26 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
I am not a religious person but I prayed long and hard during Dennis. My wife and I loaded the dog and headed to Savannah. It was pretty surreal watching CCN report from your neigborhood. My thoughts go out to those killed by the falling trees in SW FL. All of the official reports indicate low shear etc. But, based on the Wunderground shear projection, it appears there will be some shear for katrina to deal with after 24 hours. Am I reading this right. Yellow and a touch of green in the northern Gulf?
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39. STORMTOP
1:26 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
LOOK 53rd i dont need the insults im trying to give you a logical scnario where everyone is involved..if you ask the nhc i bet they would tell you they were in a squeeze play here..they dont know what to do now with the trough in the rockies now stationary and katrina moving along west in the gulf and picking up steam...katrina right now if she increases in her speed that is not good for us in la miss...if she stays at 5 mph it will give the trough thats in the rockies time to get down here and turn katrina north..i hope this happens but ir and vapor loops show the trough clearly in the rockies has yet to start moving...the best thing is you will know by saturday afternoon where katrina will go...i still say katrina will be on shore somewhere on monday night...
38. hookedontropics
1:29 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Stormtop may be right, but why scare the hell out of the entire Gulf when that is not warranted. The storm will do what it wants to do, and this place gives us a forum to learn and express thoughts. Also, get insight from folks who are near landfall. Maybe I am going overboard, but I think it is unfair to people in harms way.
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37. butterflymcb
1:29 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Didn't the hurricane hit with 95 MPH winds yesterday? Didn't those winds register somewhere yesterday at landfall? South of Miami? I believe it was Stormtop who predicted that. I could lose the CAPS, but I hope my friends in FL and MS take this seriously and don't assume it will be like Dennis. I think we are looking at a storm more like Ivan...hopefully not Camille. I pray not a Camille.
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36. SWFLsurvivor
9:31 AM EDT on August 26, 2005
53rdWeatherRecon - see my post "Thinking of those affected by Katrina" .. your thoughts earlier are now included re: the families
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35. 53rdWeatherRECON
1:28 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Ok Storm Top than you should change your sig to STORMTOP NOWS. (New Orleans Weather Service)

It's funny how you can tell if someones predictions have any legitimacy to them simply by finding out where they are living.

byased much.
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
34. MandyFSU
1:27 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Valence: do you know when the new models are run and if/when we'll get a better handle of landfall? The difference between a Destin landfall & a Panama City landfall can mean a lot over this way...
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
33. actionmobile
1:29 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
someone tell me why ms,al,p-cola has highest strike prob and everyone says its going east of them
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32. newinfl
1:28 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
dennis was a fast mover with a very narrow eye. was not here long enough to cause the damage like ivan.
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31. HillsboroughBay
9:24 AM EDT on August 26, 2005
Link

Video from Marco Island while you digest the above coments.

Please stop YELLING!
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30. GetReal
1:24 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
It does appear, unfortunately, that all the ingredients are in place for category 4 or 5 hurricane in the gulf. Whether you like it , or not, StormTop may be right this time.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8974
29. punkasshans
1:23 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
RECON,

We refers to his group of people in New Orleans

Anyway, i said yesterday: Wouldnt it be funny if the GFDL was right?

well, i think i can start laughing now :)
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28. hookedontropics
1:24 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
STORMTOP, STOP WITH THE UNOFFICIAL OFFICIAL BS. YOU NEED TO TAKE THAT CRAP TO THE NATIONAL ENQUIRER. I HAVE BEEN ON HERE FOR TWO DAYS AND YOU ALREADY ARE ANNOYING ME WITH INACCURATE INFORMATION ONE OF THESE DAYS YOU WILL REALIZE THAT OPINION IS OPINION, NOT FACT. SHUT UP WITH THE BS NWS CRAP.
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27. MandyFSU
1:23 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Sorry Orion... didn't see your post before I posted. :-)
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
26. Valence
1:19 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
For those of you along the SW coast of FL:

The best forecast for us (im here too) is that we are not going to get hurricane force winds (and therefore a direct hit) from Katrina.

The storm should stay well off ot the shoreline. However, the strongest area of storm activity has been in the SE quadrant (draw and X through the center, look at the bottom right pie piece). As Katrina moves N along the edge of the H pressure zone, we are going to get some rain gust wind. The further she pushes west, the lower the sustained winds and wind gusts should be.

JV
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25. gnshpdude
1:19 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
Hey all I am new to this blog. I live in Mary Esther, Florida south of HWY 98. Katrina has the potential to be the third major Hurricane to effect us in less then one year. I received a few inches of flooding from the storm surge of Ivan (1300 feet inland from the sound). Amazingly Dennis moved through so quickly we had very minor damage and no flooding. Both of these storms were Cat 3 at landfall. I was actually within 15 miles of the eye of Dennis and over 55 from Ivan. What causes the differences in the damage from two CAT 3. Also, is Katrina more like a Dennis or Ivan? Your inputs would be great. I am planning to begin shuttering this evening.
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24. automeris
1:16 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
And I have to apolgize, because, despite the caps, those thoughs seem rational.

Although a trough is just a relative low pressure area, and its extent is not really shown on most maps, which focus on absolute pressure. Think of Katrina moving like a spinning top over terrain where pressure is elevation. But also remember that Katrina is changing her terrain.
23. MandyFSU
1:20 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
So what are you thinking about us, Orion? (Sorry to bug, I'm starting to get nervous now that this thing kinda zigged when it was 'posed to zag)
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
21. SEFL
9:18 AM EDT on August 26, 2005

Stormtop, I wish you would stop with the all caps and the fake NWS bulletin. That's one of the reasons no one takes you seriously.

I have to say you got the wsw turn of Katrina right but I disagree when you boast that you "got it right" You said 95 mph at landfall and you had the storm emerging in the middle keys. Big difference between middle keys and shark valley. You may have some good ideas but you overcook everything.
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20. oriondarkwood
9:18 AM EDT on August 26, 2005
MandyFSU,

I am still sticking to my guns, but as of right now the quick glance at the data is pointing to landfall a bit east of where I predicted, Penasacola area looks like its in the crosshairs right now. I will check in more detail later. Work beckons
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19. cajunkid
8:15 AM EST on August 26, 2005
there is a lot of dry air just north of her that she is about to suck in though
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1390
18. oriondarkwood
9:14 AM EDT on August 26, 2005
53rdWeatherRecon,

Your right.

Come on all ye bloggee's a moment's silence and a respectful nod to those that have passed from this plane on to beyond and those still in danger from the awesome force of nature.

May dictata of silenti etc , exsisto nunquam lost ut victus
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17. EmWyz68
1:12 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
What is going on with the "tail" of Katrina, when is it going to whip around? There seems to be so much storm in the lower left (southwest?) quadrant. When is this or will it, whip around? I'm in Tampa and while I don't think we're going to get a hit or even a brushing, I'm wondering if this portion of the storm will ever come around and maybe we'll get that?
Thanks!
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16. automeris
1:07 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
I have been following the discussion here, especially StormJunkie's and Leftyy420's talk about the GFDL, and made a post on storm models and their effectiveness as tools on my Blog. Valence's ideas about the conservatism of official forcasts lead me to think he might want to read my previous entry.

My ideas about Katrina were posted before the latest updated information, and contain some rational arguements for STORMTOP's position, because we won't get them from him.
15. STORMTOP
12:52 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
STORMTOP WEATHER BULLTEN NWS

THE STROM IS NOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT 5 MPY BUT WILL DEFINITELY PICK UP SPEED AS IT ENTERS FURTHER INTO THE GULF...KATRINA HAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER AND STRENGTHEN..KATRINA WILL ALSO BECOME A UCH LARGER STORM IN DIAMETER...KATRINA HAS 2 GREAT THING GOING FRO HER SIZZLING TEMPS 88-94 DEGREES...NO SHEAR AT ALL AND NO DRY AIR NEAR HER CENTER...HERE IS THE SITUATION THERE IS A HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST RIGHT NOW AND KATRINA IS BEING PUSHES ALONG BY THE STRONG EASTERLIES IN THE GULF.IF KATRINA CONTIUES TO MOVE WEST ALL DAY TODAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY AND THE TROUGH THATS SUPPOSED TO COME DOWN SLOWS DOWN AND MAKES IT DOWN HERE LATER THEN THR NHC IS FORECASTING THE TRACK WILL KEEP BEING SHIFTED WESTWARD....THE BULLSEYE WILL BE THE MISSISSIPPI COAST NEAR PASS CHRISTIAN...IF THE HIGH OVER US STARTS TO MOVE AWAY SLOWLY THEN THE TROUGH WILL HAVE TO WAIT EVEN LONGER AND THAT WOULD MEAN A POSSIBLE LANDFALL WEST OF GRAND ISLE...NOW IF THE TURN TO THE NORTH WOULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING AHD THE TROUGH GOT DOWN HERE EARLY THEN THE BULLSEYE WOULD SHIFT BACK TO THE PENSECOLA AREA...RIGHT NOW AT THIS MOMENT THE TROUGH IS STATIONARY BACK IN THE ROCKIES AND KATRINA HAS ALREADY STARTED MOVING WESTWARD...THIS IS A BIG PART OF THE PUZZLE IF KATRINA WOULD PICK UP SPEED TO 12MPH AND THEN THE TROUGH MAY MISS PICKING HER UP COMPLETELY CAUSING A GREATER THREAT TO LA AND EVEN THE UPPER TEXAS COASTS...I WOULS SUGGEST FOR PEOPLE FROM HOUSTON TO PENSECOLA TO PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THIS IS THE KEY DAY IN MY ESTIMATION WHERE KATRINA WILL END UP...MY THOUGHTS HAVE NOT CHANGED I THINK KATRINA WILL STILL BE A CAT 5 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL WITH 180MPH WINDS...THE WATER TEMPS ALONG THE LOUISIANA MISS AND ALABAMA COASTS ARE IN THE MID 90S ALONG THE COAST..IF KATRINA WOULD HEAD IN THAT DIRECTION THE STRENGTHING WOULD CONTINUE UNTIL SHE MAKES LANDFALL...IF KATRINA WENT EAST TO PENSECOLS WATER TEMPS THERE ARE COOLER LIKE MID 80S AND WOULD NOT STRENGTHEN AS RAPIDLY COMING ON SHORE...I LOOK FOR THE NHC TO SHIFT THE TRACK WESTWARD SOMETIME TODAY AND MORE TOMORROW IF THEY DONT SEE THAT TURN..LIKE I SAID THE TROUGH IS STATIONARY IN THE ROCKIES AND HAS A LONG WAY TO GO..KATRINA IS ALREAD APPROACHING THE 82 DEGREES LONG..IF SHE PICKS UP SPEED THIS MORNING WHICH IS LOOK LIKE WHATS HAPPENING NOW THEN KATRINA COULD POSSIBLY BE AT THE 85 DEGREE LONG BEFORE THE TROUGH EVEN STARTS TO MOVE AND THAT SPELLS TROUBLE..TO KEEP IT AWAY FROM LA AND MISS WE NEED THE TROUGH TO COME DOWN BY MID MORNING SATURDAY AND TURN THE STROM TO THE NORTH..IF THIS DOESNT HAPPEN FOR THE REASONS I EXPLAINED THEN WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A POWERFUL HURRICANE CAT 5 KATRINA...THIS IS REALLY FUNNY OUR FAITH DEPENDS ON A TROUGH THAT STILL STATIONARY..WEATHER IS FULL OF VARIABLES AND SCIENCES...MY NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AT AROUND NOON.....THIS HAS BEEN A BULLETIN FROM STORMTOPS NWS....NEW ORLEANS ,LA 0800AM
14. GetReal
1:02 PM GMT on August 26, 2005
THREE QUICK OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING: 1)THE TROF THE TPC IS COUNTING ON IN THIS FORECAST IS STILL SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DIGGING SOUTH TO PICK UP KATRINA. THE TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS IS MOVING EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SE U.S. THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN CANADA, THE TROF EXTENDS FROM IS NOW MOVING ENE.
2)THIS IS STILL AUGUST, NOT LATE SEPTEMBER, IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET ANY TROF INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TO PICK UP THIS HURRICANE.
3)KATRINA IS STILL VERY FAR SOUTH IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO, AND COULD VERY EASILY NOT BE AFFECTED BY THIS FIRST TROF PASSING BY. MORE LIKELY KATRINA WILL HAVE TO GAIN ADDITIONAL LATITUDE TO BE PICKED UP BY THE NEXT TROF.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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