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Tropical update; 4th warmest June on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on July 26, 2007

Thunderstorm activity has increased over the central Gulf of Mexico this morning, thanks to a tropical wave moving westward at 20-25 mph. Winds have increased to 20-25 mph at the Gulf of Mexico buoy 275 miles SSE of Sabine Pass, Texas, but pressures are not falling. Wind shear is 20 knots over the wave, and is expected to remain at least 20 knots over the next two days. This is probably too high to allow tropical development to occur.

Two computer models, the GFS and ECMWF, are indicating the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the mid-Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands by August 1. This is still a bit early for something to form in this region, given that the SSTs are average there. However, there is a strong tropical wave about to emerge from the coast of Africa that may be something to watch early next week as it moves over the central Atlantic.

Fourth Warmest June on record
June 2007 was the fourth warmest June for the globe on record, and the period January - June of 2007 was the second warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global temperature record goes back 128 years. The global average temperature for June was +0.55�C (+0.99�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, June global temperatures were the third warmest ever measured. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (eighth warmest on record). All land areas, with the exception of Argentina, were warmer than average during the period January-June 2007.

June temperatures were particularly warm across Southeast Europe, where temperatures soared to 40�C (104�F). At least 40 deaths were blamed on the heat, and electricity demand reached record levels. Winter in the Southern Hemisphere was colder than average in Argentina and Australia, and Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city, received its first significant snowfall since 1981 on June 27.

23rd warmest June on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., June 2007 ranked as the 23rd warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 18th warmest such period on record. It was the second driest January-June and driest April-June on record in the Southeast. Alabama was hardest hit, with 86 percent of the state's pasture and range lands in poor or very poor condition in early July.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for June 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for June was the fourth lowest on record, the second straight month that we haven't had a record low. Arctic sea ice coverage in June has declined by about 10% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for June, for the years 1979-2007. June 2007 had the fourth lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 10% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

I'll have a new blog Friday.
Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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409. Drakoen
7:17 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
JP the CATL is flaring up a bit lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
407. MissBennet
2:15 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
Ahhh thank you Drak. =)
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406. lowerbamagirl
7:12 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Is there anywhere to go to get a list of weather acronyms. Some obvious ones I know like GOM etc., but some I do not, such as CATL or SFC etc.

Thanks.
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405. Drakoen
7:12 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
that CATL hasn;t moved much today looks like it stalling a bit. or moving to the NNE. I think we have to watching this area along with the wave coming of Africa.
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404. Drakoen
7:09 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Posted By: MissBennet at 7:06 PM GMT on July 26, 2007.

Ok, I'm a wannabe so I have a question:

Posted By: Drakoen at 1:34 PM CDT on July 26, 2007.
{big colorful pretty graph}
Posted By: Drakoen at 1:35 PM CDT on July 26, 2007.
{big colorful pretty graph}

These graphs are always put up on here. what do they mean? What do we learn from them.


They show what the model is predicting. A is where the model have a SFC low developing and the line is the forecast track. Also those color cicles represent the intensity. If you look to the right of the graph you will see the intensity chart which coresponds with the circles.
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403. zinhead
3:09 PM EDT on July 26, 2007
Stevie Ray??
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402. CJ5
1:05 PM CST on July 26, 2007
The GOM disturbance will cause a lot of rain for most of the gulf coast. Better get your wading boots out.

The CATL waves are rebuilding convection today, interesting that 96L did the opposite and most expected thing by building during the night. I do not think either of these will amount to an invest anytime soon, if ever.

Good convection and plenty of moisture begining to develop of the African coast in from of the disturbance. I agree this one may be worth watching but we cannot make much of it until this weekend. We have seen the model(s) develop things over the past few weeks but nothing ever happened so its a watch and wait game.
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401. IKE
2:09 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
Stevie Ray Vaughan.
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399. MissBennet
2:06 PM CDT on July 26, 2007
Ok, I'm a wannabe so I have a question:

Posted By: Drakoen at 1:34 PM CDT on July 26, 2007.
{big colorful pretty graph}
Posted By: Drakoen at 1:35 PM CDT on July 26, 2007.
{big colorful pretty graph}

These graphs are always put up on here. what do they mean? What do we learn from them.
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398. notanothercane
6:58 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
a new poster finally having a small bit of data to add.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/2/story.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10392615&pnum=0
an article talking about the Woods Hole study on the demise of the Amazon rain forest due to drought and its impact on the Atlantic hurricane seasons.
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397. GaTechNukE
7:03 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
oh, sorry, I can put it back
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396. Randyman
7:02 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Posted By: Tropicnerd13 at 6:15 PM GMT on July 26, 2007.

know what? it is called allison's evil step sister chatanal. and it has an eye already. and i'm gonna go camping in it and watch other people's tents blow over. and then it will do exactly what allison did and turn back into the gulf and go up the east coast. anyone agree? it seems like the same thing is happening.




Here's the 1989 version of the evil step-sister's one-two punch that flooded the Houston area that year...

Allison...
>Link

Chantal...
Link
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395. PalmHarbor
7:02 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
heh the bold was easier to read:)
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394. GaTechNukE
7:01 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
I got it.

This shouldn't be bold.
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393. taco2me61
6:51 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Well i thought this storm in the GOM would make TD just before land fall and now I think it really can. Although it will be a Big Rain Maker for everybody on the Gulf Coast from TX to MS then move eastward through the Carolina's...

It is going to be close to land but it can happen....

Taco:0)
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392. Dodabear
2:49 PM EDT on July 26, 2007
.
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391. Blink
6:55 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
You can see here 0n this loop link the area of convection. I see little bit of spin and convection flaring up.

Link
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390. GaTechNukE
6:54 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
I'm just trying to kill the bold...
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389. Drakoen
6:53 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
that convection is under the influence of an upper level low over SW texas and a upper high over the yucatan peninsula (like i said yesterday). It should bring some heavy rains to Texas and Lousiana.
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386. Blink
6:51 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
I don't think the NHC will call anything from this until they see pressure falling and a low sfc area.
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385. Caffinehog
6:47 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
you can see the weak rotation here.
Link
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384. NorthxCakalaky
6:45 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Posted By: StormW at 6:45 PM GMT on July 26, 2007.

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 6:36 PM GMT on July 26, 2007.

hmmmm can storms go from west to east that far out in the Atlantic?

Yes...in fact, if you go to the Satellite Services Division site and run the RGB loop (13N;32W)...you'll have to zoom in...look real close...at the surface you acn see what appears to be a low moving toward a NE fashion. There seehs to be a weakness in the mid level there. My guess is what the GFS is showing is...this weakness passes over the north portion of this, then the ridge kicks it back toward the west again

Yes..Thank you everyone.. :)
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381. Caffinehog
6:42 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
GOM blob:
Cyclonic rotation,
lower level convergence,
upper level divergence,
Shear high, but low enough that something could happen.

Deep convection has died down a bit, though, and it doesn't have much time.

It WON'T be a hurricane, but I could see a depression or minimal tropical storm come from this.
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380. nawlinsdude
6:45 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
I think the storm in the gulf has a chance.
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379. Drakoen
6:45 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
we will see what happens. Tommorrow everything should be clear...
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376. moonlightcowboy
6:40 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
...looks like lil booger cv wave might do the "tropical two-step" anyways!
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375. franck
6:40 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
All five NDBC (Western Gulf) buoys have changed from rising barometers to steady. Didn't say they were falling, just changing.
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374. Drakoen
6:39 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Latest imagery.
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373. Drakoen
6:38 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
I don't lets ask StormW lol. StormW is that possible?
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372. NorthxCakalaky
6:38 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Any thing is possibal.
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370. NorthxCakalaky
6:36 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
hmmmm can storms go from west to east that far out in the Atlantic?


I think so
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369. Drakoen
6:36 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
is the sarcasm necessary...
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367. Drakoen
6:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
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365. Drakoen
6:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
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364. NorthxCakalaky
6:29 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
I was watching a show called Jepordy, or some game show, and it asked " How many states border the Gulf of Mexico"? lol the answers were 2",3"?
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363. ihave27windows
6:30 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Texas is going to flood

So what is new?
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362. moonlightcowboy
6:28 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
iahishome, yep, see that, too now...just one more lil area, but favorable. Other than that, most everything else is under some kind of Moriah!
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360. iahishome
6:30 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Woops, sorry... don't know how my text got bold. I'm not intending to yell. Here's to the 'preview content' button.

Hmm, I don't seem to be able to do anything about the bold... did someone forget to end an HTML tag?
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359. tropicfreak
2:27 PM EDT on July 26, 2007
Keep in mind guys just because it says no sinifigcant development doesn't mean it isn;t going to develop,it just means that there's no rapid development.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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