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Tropical update; 4th warmest June on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on July 26, 2007

Thunderstorm activity has increased over the central Gulf of Mexico this morning, thanks to a tropical wave moving westward at 20-25 mph. Winds have increased to 20-25 mph at the Gulf of Mexico buoy 275 miles SSE of Sabine Pass, Texas, but pressures are not falling. Wind shear is 20 knots over the wave, and is expected to remain at least 20 knots over the next two days. This is probably too high to allow tropical development to occur.

Two computer models, the GFS and ECMWF, are indicating the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the mid-Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands by August 1. This is still a bit early for something to form in this region, given that the SSTs are average there. However, there is a strong tropical wave about to emerge from the coast of Africa that may be something to watch early next week as it moves over the central Atlantic.

Fourth Warmest June on record
June 2007 was the fourth warmest June for the globe on record, and the period January - June of 2007 was the second warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global temperature record goes back 128 years. The global average temperature for June was +0.55�C (+0.99�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, June global temperatures were the third warmest ever measured. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (eighth warmest on record). All land areas, with the exception of Argentina, were warmer than average during the period January-June 2007.

June temperatures were particularly warm across Southeast Europe, where temperatures soared to 40�C (104�F). At least 40 deaths were blamed on the heat, and electricity demand reached record levels. Winter in the Southern Hemisphere was colder than average in Argentina and Australia, and Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city, received its first significant snowfall since 1981 on June 27.

23rd warmest June on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., June 2007 ranked as the 23rd warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 18th warmest such period on record. It was the second driest January-June and driest April-June on record in the Southeast. Alabama was hardest hit, with 86 percent of the state's pasture and range lands in poor or very poor condition in early July.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for June 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for June was the fourth lowest on record, the second straight month that we haven't had a record low. Arctic sea ice coverage in June has declined by about 10% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for June, for the years 1979-2007. June 2007 had the fourth lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 10% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

I'll have a new blog Friday.
Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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559. bayoubrotha
9:14 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
NHC not impressed.



000
ABNT20 KNHC 262113
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERS
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
558. Alec
5:11 PM EDT on July 26, 2007
No closed surface low guys....link

Also, the shear continues to be an issue.......as you can see from this shear tendancy map-link
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557. TropicalNonsense
9:08 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Recent Buoy Data From Western Gulf:

4219 = 27 mph winds
4220 = 29.93 **(Pressure Falling -3)
4202 = 21 mph winds
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
556. NeverPanic
9:06 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
And we have liftoff...liftoff of wave Afr. Trop Wave #13...on it's wave...sorry way. To beat the odd's and give us all something to talk about.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/avn.jpg

Warmer waters here I come......
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554. Ivansvrivr
9:03 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Texascaster is right. Shear is not just upper level wind speed. Shear is relative to the storm, its motion and outflow. If strong upper level winds help outflow escape from the center of a tropical system, strengthening can occur. If Upper level winds are (for example) S.W. at 20kt and storm is moving same way at 10kt. then there is only 10kt (relative)shear.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
552. TropicalNonsense
9:08 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
the last few frames on the infared show what
looks like a weak cyclonic circulation.

maybe a trick but the convection with this
system is off the charts. 55k cloud tops aint no joke.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
551. Chicklit
9:07 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
AG3MO: We're talking about the disturbance just south of Haiti.
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550. Chicklit
8:53 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THE WAVE PASSAGE WAS EVIDENT IN THE CURACAO
SOUNDING DATA BETWEEN 26/0000 UTC AND 26/1200 UTC. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 69W-73W.
i think if my working out is correct that there is A GOOD TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKE SHAPE IN THE AREA 0LEASE TELL ME IF IM WRONG

Mit...I have been asking about that area since this morning but so far no one on here has mentioned it.
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549. bayoubrotha
9:04 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
That shear map shows lower shear closer to the Mexico and Texas coastline.
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548. TropicalNonsense
9:04 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
The Blob is developing a "Pinhole eye". ...lol

blob
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545. Ivansvrivr
8:52 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
If theres no low at the surface, there must be a strong mid level circulation. I find it hard to believe that the hook shape forming in the Gulf is random thunderstorms caused by diffluence. Looks like might be moving N.E. If so wouldn't shear lessen with it moving along the upper level flow instead of N.W. against it?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
544. WPBHurricane05
4:57 PM EDT on July 26, 2007
I doubt the GOM blob will develop. Look at wind shear, I doubt we will get anything with those numbers.
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543. AG3MO
8:56 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
MIT

Sorry didn't understand your last post?
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541. PBG00
8:55 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
My bad then..I only saw the after post and could not figure out what the big deal was..Makes more sense now..Sorry bout that.
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540. lowerbamagirl
8:54 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Okay...the original controversy of the update in lower case was clearly a joke. However the blogger tried to imitate the real thing. Not funny.

Oops...WPB didn't know he edited it! Sorry
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539. WPBHurricane05
4:53 PM EDT on July 26, 2007
wpb..are you referring to this post?
000
AXNT20 KNHC 261756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
405 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007


DISCUSSION...

nothing is happening. go drink, smoke, wishcast


$$
AL-COHOLIC

you are smarter than that..I must have missed something cause you thought that was real?


NO. He edited it. Before it said something like an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico could become a depression over the next 24-48 hours. All residents along the Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor it, or something like that.
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538. mit5000
8:52 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
ag3mo

does that mean that we could work whether a hurricane has been in the atlantic and east pacfic
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536. weatherblog
8:52 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
I have my new blog up and for those of you who didn't get to see it, here's the link. The blog refers to the GOM blob and the CATL wave...also the one off of Africa.

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535. MisterPerfect
8:49 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for June was the fourth lowest on record, the second straight month that we haven't had a record low. Arctic sea ice coverage in June has declined by about 10% since measurements began in 1979


Is this science or some Price Is Right game? What happened in 1978, did someone bid a dollar higher to my left? Did a Navy Sailor get his sleeve caught in the Showcase Showdown Wheel? Come on down! and post your wild Global Warming Fantasy now!
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534. lowerbamagirl
8:50 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Hey JP thanks for the answer re: weather acronyms. Sorry so long to answer -- had to get a proposal done for work and forgot to check back. Now when I read the blog only every 10th word instead of 9th word is in chinese! lol!
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532. AG3MO
8:44 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Actually we have very accurate records of weather (especially temperature, and gase concentrations) going back a lot longer than a hundred years (like 460,000 years). There is a record stored in the ice cores that have been drilled and removed from arctic ice. It can be dated, much like trees, and dissolved gases are easily tracked.
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531. Ivansvrivr
8:50 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
The moisture out in the gulf is impressive... That upper level low is a very important feature... If it can stay strong and keep blowing the tops off of all the thunderstorms in the gulf, I think that's the best case. If it weakens, or starts to retreat to the west or north, I don't like what I see in the gulf.

The rising air in the gulf might push that upper low one way or another. Tropical systems also have effects on environment that steers them. The air thats rising in the GOM to form those thunderstorms has to come down somewhere.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
530. medicroc
8:45 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Maybe your right.In the more than a years time I've checked this blog daily and you guys have always been great. Learned alot from you guys and enjoyed your bantering back and forth.Guess just got a little excited. Sorry.
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529. mit5000
8:50 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 17N
MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THE WAVE PASSAGE WAS EVIDENT IN THE CURACAO
SOUNDING DATA BETWEEN 26/0000 UTC AND 26/1200 UTC. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 69W-73W.



i think if my working out is correct that there is A GOOD TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKE SHAPE IN THE AREA
PLEASE TELL ME IF IM WRONG

check on the punto rico image in the tropical setion and tell me if it is right!


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528. beeman
8:49 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
How can global temperatures go back 128 years when the US just started keeping records in 1895 (112 yrs ago)
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525. iahishome
8:45 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
mit, I don't think so because the steering currents far enough north to have water would push a storm north... The only place where the steering currents would push a storm into the pacific requires a long trek over South America...

So I'm fairly sure a cape verde style storm has never made it to the pacific as a TS.

Now I'm not sure about something forming right near panama... perhaps that could drift across, though I know of no place you can go to look it up. Try wikipedia?
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524. weatherblog
8:47 PM GMT on July 26, 2007


Looking like a TS, but supposedly pressure is not low enough and there's no low at the surface. That's the problem.
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523. MisterPerfect
8:44 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
measuring the flow of sea ice began in 1979....the Global WArming catch phrase didn't start until 1998. I was born in 1977. Willie McCovey retired in 1980. Do Gregorian Calendar dates have anything to with sea ice? NO!!
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521. PBG00
8:44 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
wpb..are you referring to this post?
000
AXNT20 KNHC 261756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
405 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007


DISCUSSION...

nothing is happening. go drink, smoke, wishcast


$$
AL-COHOLIC

you are smarter than that..I must have missed something cause you thought that was real?
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520. lilmax
8:43 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
It could be, mit.
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519. mit5000
8:42 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
this is a question that ive been researching through the noaa web page and archive web page on wunderground

Has a tropical cyclone formed in the atlantic and gone through to the east pacfic
and survived as a t.s strengh storm
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518. PBG00
8:42 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
help lightening up..ya know in a few weeks time, there will be no room for that stuff as the tone will turn more serious..but for now, well it was really not a big deal.
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516. WPBHurricane05
4:43 PM EDT on July 26, 2007
Also. anyone who may have even, for a second, thought that was real, needs some help. He claerly made it a joke..not like some that just skew a few words and still make it look real.

Excuse me? I've been on vacation for most of this week and just got home to see whirlwinds fake NHC post.
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515. AG3MO
8:39 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
In my opinion anyone who is coming to this bulletin board for a weather update on the GOM would probably be confused by all the technical talk on here. Not that i think it was funny, not dangerous or harmful, but not funny either.
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514. Levi32
12:41 PM AKDT on July 26, 2007
I could debate billions of years....but still even if the earth is only 10000 years old the point is still the same. We have very little weather records compared to the history of this earth as a whole. It's impossible to determine if this is a long-term (whatever people think "long-term" is) global warming.
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513. medicroc
8:39 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Tell me what kind of help do you suggest?
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512. mit5000
8:40 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
my view is that g.w
does not exsist
it is just the natural warming and cooling of the earth!!!!!!!!!
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511. MisterPerfect
8:37 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
I agree 0741 lets discuss the "4th Warmest June on record" since record keeping began only a hundred years ago...even though the Earth is 4.6 billion years old. Lets talk about melting sea ice. Sea Ice that once completely melted the refroze then melted again then refroze again..on and on and on for the last 3.3 billion years or so. Global Warming is the cover you put over a decorative pillow.
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510. mit5000
8:35 PM GMT on July 26, 2007

if you look on the infared west african coast it looks as if a very well formed low or cyclone has formed
no idea about the winds and noaa never go out that far
is this a african t.d???????????
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509. PBG00
8:38 PM GMT on July 26, 2007
Taz..did you change your handle again?
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