We're changing our WunderBlogs. Learn more about this important update on our FAQ page.

Quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007

There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. Note that the Canadian CMC model has been regularly forecasting formation of tropical storms this season that have not occurred, so I am not including this model as one of our "reliable" models.

The long-range GFS model continues to forecast that the persistent trough of low pressure that has been present over the Eastern U.S. the past two months will finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure by late July. This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal to above normal risk.


Figure 1. The eye of Typhoon Man-Yi showed pentagonal symmetry on July 12, 2007, when it was a Category 4 typhoon. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Man-Yi
In the Pacific, Typhoon Man-Yi battered Japan's Kyushu island yesterday, striking as a Category 1 storm. The typhoon killed one and injured 56 in Japan, according to preliminary media reports. The typhoon should weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday as the combined effects of winds shear, cooler waters, and interaction with land take their toll. Some weather links for those following the typhoon:

Japanese radar. Click on an area of interest to zoom in.

Latest satellite images of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Guam sector satellite images.

Awesome image of Man-Yi from NASA's Aqua satellite.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 386 - 336

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

386. Drakoen
8:58 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 8:58 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Drakoen so dos this wave have a low at the sfc??


From the Quicksat and the buoy wind shift it appears to have a SFC low. But we need officials to comfirm that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
385. Tazmanian
1:58 PM PDT on July 14, 2007
oh said vary strong hurricane in the GOM and where could it make land fall
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
384. Drakoen
8:57 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
i think that picture just shows low pressure areas not cyclones.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
383. Tazmanian
1:55 PM PDT on July 14, 2007
Drakoen so dos this wave have a low at the sfc??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
380. nawlinsdude
8:53 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
the new one looks more impressive
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
379. nash28
8:55 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Like I said, the GFS wiggs out again!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
378. Tazmanian
1:54 PM PDT on July 14, 2007
seen like that photo i post dos not update right any more
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
377. benirica
8:55 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
forgiven, but dont do it again.. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
376. Drakoen
8:54 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
yea we need to see what it does overnight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
375. nash28
8:54 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Hey Taz, it's cool buddy:-) No harm no foul.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
374. Drakoen
8:53 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
373. Tazmanian
1:53 PM PDT on July 14, 2007
for give me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
372. nash28
8:52 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
No one in hurricane prone areas should need a wake up call. If 2004 and 2005 weren't enough, then you're screwed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
370. benirica
8:51 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
taz its an older pic, because now its almost all into the ever 1/2 hour update of the CATL images and the wave looks a bit better "" if you will
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
369. Stormchaser2007
4:51 PM EDT on July 14, 2007
NO 28 ITS NOT A OLD PHOTO LOOK AT THE DATE AND YOU SEE ITS SAYS JULY 14TH ON IT AND TIME OF 01300 ON ITS TODAY PHOTO YOU THIS DONT LOOK AT THE DAT

Actually it is like 6-8 hours old.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
368. Tazmanian
1:52 PM PDT on July 14, 2007
sorry eye
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
367. nash28
8:52 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Eye- Don't be nasty with Taz.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
366. RL3AO
3:51 PM CDT on July 14, 2007
Which means its 8 hours old.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
364. Drakoen
8:50 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
yes it is todays photo but the time newest picture is at 19:45 UTC and you have 13:00 UTC.
Heres the new one lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
363. eye
8:50 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
oh no, here we go again...another taz spaz?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
362. marker
8:51 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Consider the CMC is correct in it's projection. The number 1 thing !! -- BE PREPARED !!

Maybe this is the wake up call everyone needs for this season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
361. Tazmanian
1:48 PM PDT on July 14, 2007
NO Drakoen ITS NOT A OLD PHOTO LOOK AT THE DATE AND YOU SEE ITS SAYS JULY 14TH ON IT AND TIME OF 01300 ON ITS TODAY PHOTO YOU THIS DONT LOOK AT THE DATE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
360. eye
8:48 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
i think the wave will morph into the ITCZ and this time Sunday just be pockets of thunderstorms along the ITCZ...with no real "blob"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
359. Drakoen
8:48 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
nightanddaygraphic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
358. nawlinsdude
8:46 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
hey drak, can you give a link to the nightfall graphic?
thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
357. Drakoen
8:46 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Taz thats an old pic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
356. Tazmanian
1:42 PM PDT on July 14, 2007
by the way to you re call from last night about the wave that came off? well her it is today this is the 1st wave of the year that has not fall a part yet and its holding

moveing right a long her and most likey see 97L and 98L her soon

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
355. nash28
8:42 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
As I said earlier, none of the models, INCLUDING the golden boy GFS has batted a worthy average so far.

Garbage in = Garbage out.

I also am not thrilled with the convective feedback issue the GFS is STILL having! EVERYTHING looks like a developing cyclone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
354. HurricaneRoman
8:37 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
hmmm there appears to be some weak spin to it.... at least from what i see....

Intresting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
352. nash28
8:41 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Agreed. However, down the road aint far from now....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
351. MississippiWx
8:37 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Actually, the system the CMC is forecasting looks to take more of a Rita type path. Of course, no one should pay too much attention to this model right now, but it's worth keeping an eye on down the road.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
350. Drakoen
8:39 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
eye the Quicksat shows a wind shift at the surface. If you read JP post on the last page a buoy had a wind shift in the space of an hour.
Anyways night should be upon the wave within 1-2hours.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
349. nash28
8:36 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Well, let's hope the CMC doesn't have another "shiny happy people" moment with this, because I can tell you there will be alot of people sweating bullets should the 144hr position come to fruition.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
348. eye
8:34 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
i dont see a for sure LLC...Sunday this time should be able to tell if there is one....maybe some sort of circulation, but doubt it is to the surface and it is very weak.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
347. MississippiWx
8:35 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Possibly, weder, but most likely not.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
346. Drakoen
8:34 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: wederwatcher555 at 8:34 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Is this the wave the CMC is developing into a cane that hits S.Florida and then takes a Katrina-like path?


Sorta. Its a little more west. The CMC is the only model doing this and not considered a reliable model, although it has moment when it shines. None of the reliable model develop any around the area the CMC is developing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
344. Patrap
3:35 PM CDT on July 14, 2007
From the Dr's Entry above,

There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. Note that the Canadian CMC model has been regularly forecasting formation of tropical storms this season that have not occurred, so I am not including this model as one of our "reliable" models.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
343. wederwatcher555
8:33 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Is this the wave the CMC is developing into a cane that hits S.Florida and then takes a Katrina-like path?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
342. MississippiWx
8:33 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Here, check out the visible, EYE...this out to sell you on at least some sort of circulation.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
341. KYhomeboy
8:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
It might be a big wave...but keep in mind as tropical storms/ hurricanes develop their sizes in terms of overall cloud coverage and wind field changes continuously. So just because this has a rather large expanse of convection, that doesn't mean that what might develop from this will be as proportionately large.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
340. Drakoen
8:31 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Look around 10N 24W. This is from this morning of course.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
339. eye
8:30 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
i am not sold on the LLC, wait until the next pass
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
338. Stormchaser2007
4:29 PM EDT on July 14, 2007
Ok just got kinda confused for a sec....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
337. Drakoen
8:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: Stormchaser2007 at 8:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

So theres a LLC?


I think so Look at the Quicksat lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
336. Drakoen
8:28 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: MississippiWx at 8:28 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Ryan...upper level ANTI-cyclonic flow is over the area, which means an upper level high is in the area. Result=good for helping the wave form.


Right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 386 - 336

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

Ad Blocker Enabled