Quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007

There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. Note that the Canadian CMC model has been regularly forecasting formation of tropical storms this season that have not occurred, so I am not including this model as one of our "reliable" models.

The long-range GFS model continues to forecast that the persistent trough of low pressure that has been present over the Eastern U.S. the past two months will finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure by late July. This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal to above normal risk.


Figure 1. The eye of Typhoon Man-Yi showed pentagonal symmetry on July 12, 2007, when it was a Category 4 typhoon. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Man-Yi
In the Pacific, Typhoon Man-Yi battered Japan's Kyushu island yesterday, striking as a Category 1 storm. The typhoon killed one and injured 56 in Japan, according to preliminary media reports. The typhoon should weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday as the combined effects of winds shear, cooler waters, and interaction with land take their toll. Some weather links for those following the typhoon:

Japanese radar. Click on an area of interest to zoom in.

Latest satellite images of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Guam sector satellite images.

Awesome image of Man-Yi from NASA's Aqua satellite.

Jeff Masters

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536. Drakoen
10:38 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
If you want to see it better you can go here
Link
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535. Drakoen
10:36 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Look at this 850mb Vorticity. there is something there.
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534. groundman
10:35 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 10:34 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.
groundman there is no radar out there lol


anyway the visible shot is usually the best at picking out rotation



Duhhhhhhhh, sorry, I meant Infrared, which in my pea brain is the same, pretty colors. LOL
533. eye
10:36 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
IMHO, there is no rotation to pick out
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
532. groundman
10:34 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Should have been an LLC, not and LLC, I was giggling over the Righteous brothers.
530. eye
10:30 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
I am a vet


sprays Troll Spray

there, much better
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
529. groundman
10:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
OK, I'll ask the dumb question since I'm such an expert @ asking dumb questions, how do you "see" and LLC. Radar, visible, water vapor, all three combined with the little wind barbs that are on some maps??

I see roatation or actually I see clouds coming down from the NE N and NW toward the actual "blob" on radar and the blob looks to be blowing up like a baloon?? The "blob" that's between 30W and 35W right now.
528. Drakoen
10:31 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Drak,

In my opinion there's an ill-defined area of low pressure near 11.5░N, 30░W.

The whole region has broad cyclonic turning, but there seems to be a center that was visible in the early afternoon images. It became visible during the 15z-18z timeframe. If one looks very closely at that area they would notice the low level cumulus-type signature clouds circulating.

Again, a quikSCAT pass will have the final say, for now. But this wave carrys with it the best chance for an East Atlantic development.



Yes i saw it when it came out but it seems to have gotten some clouds over it now.
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526. sullivanweather
10:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Ivan,

Yes, there is dry air in the vicinity, but it's not so much a system can't overcome.

There's definately enough moisture around to maintain convection.
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524. Drakoen
10:30 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 10:30 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Ivansurvivor, the dry air isnt the issue at all with this system


right; plenty of moisture.
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523. hurricane23
6:26 PM EDT on July 14, 2007
The MJO is now on the positive side in the atlantic but i think those waves are still a tad south and still attached to the ITCZ and most of the other paramaters still are not in place for a tropical cyclone to flurish.
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521. eye
10:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
With Drak imaginative LLC, it kinda resembles the lest invest, doesnt have a top
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
519. sullivanweather
10:25 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Drak,

In my opinion there's an ill-defined area of low pressure near 11.5░N, 30░W.

The whole region has broad cyclonic turning, but there seems to be a center that was visible in the early afternoon images. It became visible during the 15z-18z timeframe. If one looks very closely at that area they would notice the low level cumulus-type signature clouds circulating.

Again, a quikSCAT pass will have the final say, for now. But this wave carrys with it the best chance for an East Atlantic development.
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517. Ivansvrivr
10:19 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
the new t.w is fighting too much dry air at this point. It will develop very slowly if at all. North of the Carrib. islands, the environment will be better. Whether it develops or not, it is defnitely leaving a more
moist environment behind it. These waves that
seem like they aren't doing anything are setting the environment up for whatever rolls
off africa in August-Sepetmber
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515. eye
10:25 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
you mean NHC had NOTHING to say about the blob at 5pm EST? I wonder why..............
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
514. IKE
5:26 PM CDT on July 14, 2007
You can wishcast it or not wishcast it...it's gonna do what it's gonna do.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 38266
513. Drakoen
10:25 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
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512. eye
10:24 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
or wishcasting LLCs
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
511. hurricane23
6:14 PM EDT on July 14, 2007
The 2 TD'S in the eastern pacific in my opinion are the result of the favorable MJO in the vicinity.I suspect the probability is there for something similar in the coming weeks across the atlantic.
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510. groundman
10:21 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 10:13 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.
all i am asking everyone do is to stop arguing. Just wait for the NHC to say something about the wave thats all.


But that is what we do best besides gripe, complain, b*&^%, and moan?? LOL Oh yes and wishcast westerly. LOL or westcast wishfully??
509. Drakoen
10:22 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:21 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Low/mid-level clouds within the ITCZ have reversed their normal east-west movement and are now moving west-east, wrapping towards the backside of the wave.

It should raise an eyebrow when a wave starts drawing moisture in from the ITCZ


Thats what i am saying lol. oh well.
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508. sullivanweather
10:15 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Low/mid-level clouds within the ITCZ have reversed their normal east-west movement and are now moving west-east, wrapping towards the backside of the wave.

It should raise an eyebrow when a wave starts drawing moisture in from the ITCZ...
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507. eye
10:20 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
yeah, hurricanehunter just wants to start something, I hate it when the lurkers come out like that....we were simply discussing the wave...go back to lurking unless you have something to add besides that...


reframing from using the word nash uses
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506. Drakoen
10:19 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
i'm not getting offended it just seems that the discussion is going nowhere. That being said i refer to officials to information at this point.
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505. kmanislander
10:18 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Eye

LMAO

I didn't know you were one of the Righteous Brothers !!
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503. bobw999
6:15 PM EDT on July 14, 2007
eye just stop this is a TROPICAL WEATHER BLOG to have FUN not for people like you to critacize everyone just because we think something will develop and you dont and are you a met NO neither are we this is just for fun

You think this will develop and eye thinks it won't. Seems like we are just having a discussion about a tropical wave.
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502. eye
10:14 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
the blob has lost its LLC feeling, ohhhhh that LLC feeling....its lost that LLC feeling...that is gone gone gone....ohhhhhh
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501. IKE
5:15 PM CDT on July 14, 2007
The believers vs. the non-believers.....LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 38266
500. Drakoen
10:15 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:14 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Drak,

Are you suggesting that we must not speak unless spoken too?! *GASP*


I guess i am saying indirectly that this conversation is going nowhere lol.
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498. MississippiWx
10:13 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Yeah, I'm done with the argument. All I know is what the satellite imagery shows and the Quikscat shows. Circulation is obvious in both, whether it's low level or mid-level.
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497. kmanislander
10:13 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Well lets see what the next few frames show and by then we will have the descending pass.
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496. sullivanweather
10:14 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Drak,

Are you suggesting that we must not speak unless spoken too?! *GASP*
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495. Drakoen
10:13 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
just because it look worse than this morning doesn't mean that its lost its LLC, if there were to be one.
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494. eye
10:12 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
there isnt any counter-clockwise spin, thus it is outflow and the ITCZ playing tricks on you
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493. Drakoen
10:11 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
all i am asking everyone do is to stop arguing. Just wait for the NHC to say something about the wave thats all.
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492. eye
10:11 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
wind shift, yeah, but it looks alot worse now then this morning, and it looks to be spreading out into the ITCZ...i suspect this time Sunday there will be a bunch of mini blobs we will be trying to figure out which one is the main mini and which one has the circulation!
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491. MississippiWx
10:10 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Lol, eye...

Outflow doesn't spin counter-clockwise into the system.
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490. kmanislander
10:09 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Eye

Are you saying that there was not at least a significant wind shift ?
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489. eye
10:07 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
i gave it a 10% chance and there is no clear circulation, low, mid or upper....that is just outflow....and the ITCZ....come on guys, I know it has been awhile since we had Barry but lets not see things that arent there.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
488. kmanislander
10:05 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Eye

I agree that the QS pass missed half of what was either a surface low or simply a wind shift on the NE side of the wave. If it was only a wind shift it is still noteworthy as the wind was swinging through 180 degrees at a minimum that we could see
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487. sullivanweather
10:03 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: sullivanweather at 5:08 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Dr. Masters may have just jixed things.

There is definately a low pressure associated with the tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verde.

The last 5 frames on the visible a swirl in the low cloud features is noted around 11.5░N, 30.0░W.
Clouds and showers also seem to be consolidating around this area
_____________________________________________


It appears as if this trend has continued while I was away.

The LLC was being obscured by high clouds from convection to the south in the last few frames before sunset. I give a better chance than not that we'll see the next 2007 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone.
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486. Drakoen
10:05 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Why can't i use the QuickSat from this morning? i can use that and the buoy readings. Not every Quicksat is gonna show you a defined low. If you are looking at the loop it doesn't have to be obvious. All i am saying is wait for the NHC and the New quicksat.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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