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Bill Proenza gone; tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:35 PM GMT on July 09, 2007

With hurricane season fast approaching and internal strife threatening "the effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center", as stated in a letter signed by 23 of NHC's 49 employees, NOAA did the best thing by reassigning director Bill Proenza this afternoon. Conrad Lautenbacher, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, announced Proenza has been placed on leave "until further notice."

The reassignment puts NHC deputy director Ed Rappaport, 49, into the director's hot seat. I greatly respect Dr. Rappaport, who has done a great job as deputy director and is a highly skilled hurricane forecaster. Dr. Rappaport has a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Texas Tech. He began work in 1988 at NHC, and served as one NHC's Hurricane Specialists before becoming chief of the Technical Support Branch. He is the best choice for director of NHC. He had wide support to become director last year when Max Mayfield retired, but turned down the job due to family reasons.

Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. A cold front is expected to push off the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, and we will have to watch the waters off the North Carolina coast then for development when the front stalls out. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 1 typhoon, Man-Yi, is expected to become a major typhoon, and will threaten Japan late this week.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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479. Tropicnerd13
3:22 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
i guess that you guys can see how i got my name. koritheman, someone told me most of those earlier, but you do get origionality points for emily and diana and bonnie, along with points for trying.
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478. Bamatracker
3:22 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
tn...dont be name calling around here. we keep the peace now!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
477. Tropicnerd13
3:20 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
ok you guys are kind of pathetic. i just looked at 10 years and i saw about 30. heres ten for you. gamma delta ophelia epsilon 2005 lisa otto 2004 fern laura 1971 eduard 1990 alison 2001
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476. KoritheMan
10:17 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Tropicnerd13: Um... Let's see...

1981: Emily made a loop in the open Atlantic Ocean.
1982: Alberto looped in the Gulf of Mexico.
1984: Diana looped off North Carolina's coast.
1992: Bonnie made a very small loop around the Azores, I think.
2004: Jeanne looped before hitting Florida.
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475. Bamatracker
3:19 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
gotta love the south jp....bad thing this isnt even bad...august kills
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473. MrNiceville
3:17 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
Alberto comes to mind...
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472. Bamatracker
3:17 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
sorry tropicnerd....i dont know my hurricane history too well:(
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471. Tropicnerd13
3:13 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
alright im about to go to bed. anyone able to answer this question before i do? name 5 tropical cyclones that made loopdy loops in the atlantic basin. they can be on land or over water.
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469. Tropicnerd13
3:10 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
not appropriate, baha.
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468. Bamatracker
3:10 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
Dont have to wait till aug or sept...im a wishcaster and im out of the woodwork already!!!

OF course that is if you define wishcasting as wishing I knew what was going on.
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467. moonlightcowboy
3:10 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
Cut Nash some slack now...he's been cutting grass for a week and half now--It's hot!!! lol
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466. Tropicnerd13
3:08 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
tropical cyclones that made loopdy loops
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465. TropicalNonsense
3:07 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
Keeperofthegate ...... You are so right!
I cant wait till August and September.
The Wishcasters Start coming out of the
Woodwork. It's only July and Nash is already
Praying to God For a TS to hit Tampa.

Wait Til Late Summer ... lol
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464. BahaHurican
10:53 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: FLfishyweather at 9:15 PM EDT on July 09, 2007.

Bed already at 9:14?


FLfishy,

I would say that would be highly dependent on what one planned to do when one got there . . .

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463. ustropics
2:51 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
If anyone wants to know what Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is I'll try to explain it best I can:

The MJO basically pulses, moving eastward in "waves". It brings changes in both lower-level and upper-level wind speed and direction (shear), abundant amounts of moisture (rainfall and cloudiness), and sea surface temperatures. Typical length of the MJO cycle is around 30-60 days.

Although the relationship between MJO and ENSO is undetermined and they both are considered naturally occuring events they do show existence together. There tends to be absent or very weak MJO activity during El Nino, while increased MJO activity is seen during the neutral ENSO or La Nina. The strongest tropical cyclones tend to develop when the MJO favors enhanced precipitation.

Anyone that wants to add to this or sees an error since i'm reciting this from memory please feel free to.
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462. moonlightcowboy
3:06 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
Jp, but comparing apples to apples -- "TS force winds"...was it Gilbert, or Wilma, or some other storm. Can't find the records for that too easily.

(...having a time finding things today...lol)
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460. Bamatracker
3:03 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
night kman!
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459. kmanislander
3:02 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
well time to read a good book
see you all tomorrow

night everyone
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458. moonlightcowboy
3:00 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
Have a good one, Kman!

Did we decide today that Wilma was the "largest" AB cane?

Tip in the PB had TS force winds that extended 1350 miles wide.

I forgot about the strenghth, but someone posted today that Wilma had TS force winds that was 860 miles wide.
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457. Bamatracker
3:01 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
other what trn?
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456. RL3AO
10:01 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
JTWC has 04W up to 60kts.
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455. phillyfan909
10:56 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: Bamatracker at 10:46 PM EDT on July 09, 2007

ugh....must we always bring up katrina and stormtop

LOL I totally agree
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454. Tropicnerd13
3:00 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
can you name any others?
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453. Bamatracker
3:00 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
no too fond of running moomlight. too tiring!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
452. moonlightcowboy
2:59 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
...BAMA, like me, you prolly should run for the state line! lol
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451. Bamatracker
2:59 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
we need a blob...LOL
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450. Tropicnerd13
2:57 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
i can name 5 in 2005. gamma delta ophelia epsilon harvey
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449. Bamatracker
2:56 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
cant believe they wouldnt let me run the mail
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448. Bamatracker
2:55 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
i applied for the nhc position...they laughed....
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447. BahaHurican
10:43 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
AHah! Found what I was looking for:

From DocM's Dec. Blog:

Most of the senior hurricane specialists at NHC in line to take over from Max declined to apply for the job, and it appears that first the first time ever, someone from outside the NHC or NOAA's Hurricane Research Division will get the job. Speculation currently centers on Bill Proenza, 62, director of the National Weather Service's Southern Region, which includes Florida, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

So I wonder who was not included in the "most"? I was pretty sure Rappaport had declined the post, which is the only reason why he didn't take over from Max to begin with, and I found several articles which stated clearly that he declined for family reasons.
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446. hurricane91
2:51 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
i live on island, 200 yards is the gulf, and my elavition is 6 ft, i dont think i would stay for a cat 4 or 5, i stayed for wilma, i got lucky that hit south of us, not north
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445. TropicalNonsense
2:51 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
yeah. Stormtop/Stormkat whatever. lol

He is a Legend on here because he Predicted
The Unthinkable and No One Believed Him.

and Katrina just grew and grew and Smashed LA
Just like he had said.

Truthfully that was The Most amazing Prediction
i have ever heard.
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444. horizondb
2:51 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
Hey Nash,

Earlier you were talking about Aug. and the @$#& hitting the fan?

Lets hope not. go to the FEMA.gov website and go to recent disaster declarations. So far there have been 38. Only 1996 with the Blizzard of 96 beats it out. There have been 4 in the last 10 days. Keep an eye on the declared counties in Texas. Over 100 counties have been effected, not sure how many will make it in the declaration. I can tell you it is a large mobilization though.
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443. Bamatracker
2:50 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
im in a strike zone but a good 145 feet about sea level with now rivers that can flood around me. I'll stay atleast through one cat 5. AFter that one I may not though LOL!
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442. carguy1969
2:48 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
If I lived in a possible strike zone, I would have an exit strategy prepared for that time frame. Be prepared and hope for the best.
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441. Bamatracker
2:48 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
carguy must be using climate data or somehting....thats no fun
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440. Tropicnerd13
2:46 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
carguy, great guess. where did you come up with it???
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439. thelmores
2:39 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
Posted By: RL3AO
Did you guys know Barry was upgraded to 60mph in post-storm analysis?"

Who..... Barry Manilow?? ahhhh, I bet he Never exceeds the speed limit! :D

Bill who????
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438. Tropicnerd13
2:44 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
i didnt think of any of those. i thought allison, 2002? ivan, and ophelia. i didnt know any others.
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437. carguy1969
2:45 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
I say there is a tropical depression sometime between July 9, 2007 and December 31, 2007. It could happen tomorrow however. . .
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436. Bamatracker
2:45 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
ugh....must we always bring up katrina and stormtop
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435. kmanislander
2:45 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
If stormkat's prediction pans out we will never live it down lol
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433. sporteguy03
2:44 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
you mean StormKat right? Hes predicting July 20th to get active.
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432. moonlightcowboy
2:43 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
Have a good sleep, StormW. Thanks.
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431. Tropicnerd13
2:42 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
around sunday the 22nd. wild guess.
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429. sporteguy03
2:42 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
Next TD could be tomorrow two weeks, two months who knows, you could say unlikely for the next few days but it can happen.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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