One tropical wave to watch in the mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on July 02, 2007

A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa late last week is now near 8N 35W, way out in the middle of the Atlantic. This wave has heavy thunderstorm activity and some counterclockwise spin to it, as seen on both visible satellite loops and QuikSCAT. Wind shear is 10-20 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 10 and 30 knots in the region over the next two days. Sea surface temperatures are 27-28 C, which is warm enough to support some tropical development. Dry air does not seem to be a hindrance, as the Saharan Air Layer is about 150 miles to the north of the wave. The GFS model does indicate a tropical depression might form here, although our other three reliable models, the NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF, do not. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare. Due to this fact, plus the somewhat marginal wind shear and the position of the wave so close to the Equator, I'm not expecting it to develop. However, we should keep an eye on it this week as it moves very slowly to the west at less than 5 mph.



I'll be back this afternoon with my bi-monthly hurricane outlook, for the first half of July.

Jeff Masters

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381. moonlightcowboy
5:11 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
I've got $1.32 cents, Pottery!
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379. Tazmanian
5:10 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
pottery2 lol
378. WPBHurricane05
1:10 PM EDT on July 02, 2007
LOL pottery!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
377. pottery2
1:06 PM AST on July 02, 2007
Hey Taz, we been taking up a collection, so we can get you to Barbados ( the Front Line ). But so far we only got $ 6.48. So hang in there man, we are working on it. LOL
376. Tazmanian
5:08 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
ok jp
375. WPBHurricane05
1:08 PM EDT on July 02, 2007
Do I need to go to Home Depot??

Link

just kidding
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
374. Drakoen
5:07 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
ah i guess i shoudl have taken in some resources. Just made a wild guess lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32857
373. ClearH2OFla
1:07 PM EDT on July 02, 2007
Ah ok ty
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371. EdMahmoud
5:05 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
12Z Canadian vort loop shows wave staying healthy, but pressure loop shows just a decent wave into the Caribbean.
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370. WPBHurricane05
1:04 PM EDT on July 02, 2007
Drakoen maybe you can answer my question is there a year like this where there were waves off of Africa becuase last year I dont remember this or 2004 and 2005 but I dont know

Most of 2005 hurricanes didn't develop until the Caribbean. 2004 was mainly a Cape Verde year.

1995 Parade of storms:

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
369. Drakoen
5:06 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
I say invest at 2:00 pm lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32857
366. Tazmanian
5:05 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
JP what do you think about this wave looking good now we have 2 wave to watch

365. homegirl
5:05 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
The floater means the NHC has an eye on it.
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 7427
363. Drakoen
5:04 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
weatherman99 i think you are talking about the year 2005. When jeane And francs hit Florida. they came of as waves of Africa i think.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32857
362. Canesfan68
5:04 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
If the floater is over the system, doesn't that mean its just about an invest?
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361. Drakoen
5:02 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Posted By: ClearH2OFla at 5:02 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

Drak the CMC looks like it makes it to the Carib, but much weaker


in terms of strength you can't look that far out.i would trust the run up to about 60 hours or so.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32857
360. Tazmanian
5:03 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
whats hop it dos not go in to the gluf the sea temps are red hot
358. MisterPerfect
5:02 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 5:02 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

i hate to say this but we could be looking at are 1st hurricane


LOL, you've said that every week since Barry headed North, Taz.
:)
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 72 Comments: 20250
356. pottery2
1:00 PM AST on July 02, 2007
That next one looks good too. OH MY !!!!!!!!!!!!
355. Tazmanian
5:02 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
but this time we have vary low wind shear this about evere where you look
354. Drakoen
5:02 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
the CMC 12z run is out and it does show development of the system. look at the 850MB loop.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32857
353. ClearH2OFla
1:01 PM EDT on July 02, 2007
Drak the CMC looks like it makes it to the Carib, but much weaker
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352. Tazmanian
5:01 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
i hate to say this but we could be looking at are 1st hurricane
349. Tazmanian
5:01 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
weatherman99 hard to tell at this time but most likey by to night
348. MisterPerfect
5:01 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Thanks for answering my question earlier JP.
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 72 Comments: 20250
347. Drakoen
5:00 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
weatherman99 96L could be made at 2:00 i think they do it according to their outlok/dicussion.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32857
346. groundswell
5:00 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Wave looks like it has good structure to me...I'll wishcast it right over 30N 65W going north-no harm to anyone except ridable surf-heck, the disturbance off of Florida pulsed some fun 4' waves on Saturday-I'm still sore from the session.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 381
344. Tazmanian
5:00 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
looks like we have a new wave to talk about dont you all think this is a little soon for this

343. Drakoen
5:00 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
convection increased a bit on the pic Taz.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32857
341. Crisis57
4:58 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
so what is everones percentage that this will form?
340. pottery2
4:58 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Yeah Drakoen. My previous comment took all of that into account. And some nice images subsequent to that, kind of confirmed my thinking. Well, we watch and wait........
339. Tazmanian
4:58 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
i think we may have 96L


338. DocBen
4:56 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Looks like another one might be forming about 15W
Member Since: May 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 103
337. WPBHurricane05
4:56 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Probably to far south to start the real Cape Verde machine. Once the ITCZ get to 10N than it will really get cooking.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
336. StoryOfTheCane
4:54 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
SAL & Shear dont give any indication of affecting it. This has a shot.
335. WPBHurricane05
4:54 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Is that another one off Africa??

Isn't it a little early to start the wave train........
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
334. Drakoen
4:53 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
nice links WPB very nice Satellite picture.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32857
333. Drakoen
4:53 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
lol pottery read Jeff post at the top, read the NHC, look at the SFC analysis. there is cyclonic turning which is very evident on the animated Satellite loop. I feel this system only need more organization in the way of convection to become a TD. I don't want to jump the gun but thats what i seems to me.
here the LOW cloud Sat
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32857
332. WPBHurricane05
4:52 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Floater 1 loop Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
331. StoryOfTheCane
4:51 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
ill be back in bout 10 hrs, thats when this wave will show us what its really made of, right now its just trying to get together

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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