Will TD 10 rise again?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on August 23, 2005

The remains of TD 10 continue to fester over the Bahama Islands, and the clouds have taken on that decidedly messy pattern associated with a tropical depression in the formative stages. An exposed low level circulation center is apparent in both visible satellite imagery and winds from the Quikscat satellite. The circulation was north of eastern Cuba and south of the central Bahama Islands, near 22.5N, 76W at 11am EDT. Deep convection is all east of the low level circulation center, and Quickscat winds as high as 30 knots were measured in this area. Observation stations in the vicinity are sparse, and I have not yet seen any pressure falls in those stations close to the system.

The environment surrounding the system is good but not ideal. Water temperatures are quite warm--about 29C, and closer to 31C near the western Bahamas. However, wind shear levels have been increasing somewhat over the past 12 hours and are about 10 - 15 knots (5 -10 knots would be much better.) A small upper-level low just north of the system may act bring some dry air into the system and hamper any upper-level outflow that tries to develop. Another possible problem is the presence of the large landmass of Cuba to the south, which may disrupt the system's circulation if it tracks more westerly. I expect the storm to continue to torment us by very slowly continuing to organize as it moves towards Florida.


The system appears to be tracking west-northwest at a very slow 5 to 10 mph, and the latest "early guidance" shows the storm moving more northwesterly towards Florida over the next few days. However, steering currents are weak and more westerly motion towards Cuba or the Straights of Florida would not be a surprise. Some of the computer models such as the Canadian model strengthen the system into a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico later in the week. Some very warm water (32C, or almost 90F) lies off the west coast of Florida that model believes will fuel the storm into a hurricane. The GFS model makes the system a weak tropical storm that moves over Florida by Friday, then keeps the system a weak tropical storm as it recurves past the Carolinas. If the system does become a tropical storm, it is unlikely the upper level winds will allow intensification into a hurricane for at least the next three days. By that time, it's anybody's guess what might happen. One thing is for sure--the remains of TD 10 will be a around for a lot longer, they're going nowhere very fast. I expect I'll still be talking about this system next week!

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit the remains of TD 10 at 5pm this afternoon to see if a new tropical depression has formed. If so, it will be interesting to see if they call it TD 10 again, since the NHC discussions have been refering to this system as "possibly the remnants of TD 10".

African Tropical Waves
The large tropical wave 700 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has gained some deep convection on its east side since yesterday, but has struggled to maintain its convection in the face of some increasing wind shear this morning. The system is also battling some dry air to its norhtwest that is getting entrained into the center. This system could still become a depression in a day or two as it moves west to west-northwest. Global models forecast that this storm will recurve before it threatens any land.
Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 145 - 95

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

145. STORMTOP
7:20 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
we have td 12 and it will be katrina in a few hours.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
144. MIAWX
7:22 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
sorry for the last post, didn't realize this had been copied in here before. I think this is going to come to south FL and just sit for a day or 2, dumping loads of rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
143. mybahamas
3:15 PM EDT on August 23, 2005
wow :(

Long Island is the island north of Inagua, the island where all that convection had been camped over the last few days.
and it looks like it's heading our way :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
142. MIAWX
7:21 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
This, just in:

...TWELFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND 35 MPH.
ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AT 5 PM EDT.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
141. lefty420
7:20 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
yeah but thanks for telling me. i got somany windows open right now lol its kinda funny and than bam the floater is up so thats one more window i gotta have up lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
140. whirlwind
3:19 PM EDT on August 23, 2005
well not many frames, they just put it there like 3 hrs agao
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
139. SEFL
7:19 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
weatherguy, you looking for map of Bermuda or Bahamas? Long Island is in se Bahamas ne of cuba
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
138. STORMTOP
6:09 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
lefty i see some real explosive development near the center..ther eis no doubt they will find katrina down there...this strengthing all ready and has been moving on a wnwn to nw course which keeps it off of cuba...s fla will be hit and the keys sometime tomorrow night and then the gulf ovf mexico..the data i read shows katrina turning more towards the nw towards the louisiana coast and coming on shore just west of grand isle a s a cat 3 sometime late firday night and early sat....also the storm has picked up speed....this data i went over has not changed and the atmosphere has louisiana written all over it...lefty it sure looks like im goin gto beat you with the name...katrina will be the gulf storm and lee will be yours...one thing i dont agree with is they have it a cat 3 but after seeing what happen to jose after he intensified so rapidly being that close to land im still sticking to my cat 5 winds of 170 mph slamming into louisiana west of grand isle ......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
137. whitewabit
7:17 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
lefty

did you know that floater 2 is over your wave
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
136. lefty420
7:15 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
models will be out when they are out, lot of times its the ftp server not working right, just be patient.


well whilemy wave looks fine she is strugling but its been a long road for her and we will see. now i like stormts wave but as i mentioned many times since there was no low at the surface or circulation it would take time and the loss of convection is normal for a storm comming off the coast. that wave will probly develop as it will be in a better enviroment shear wise and dust wise. looks like td12 will be katrina afterall and if things play out right she could be a good one. the gulf is really hot.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
135. IKE
7:15 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Coordinates 22.9 N, 75.2 W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
134. whitewabit
7:14 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
lefty

when will the models be up dated
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
133. whirlwind
3:13 PM EDT on August 23, 2005
hey lefty...your storm is still alive but StormT's cat 5 storm is diminishing. But have another wave behind that one....one after another just like they said it would happen...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
132. lefty420
7:11 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
looks like she will just skurt the coast of cuba and enter the gulf after that no clue where she will go, to many variables and models are no help as they are all over the place
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
131. whirlwind
3:11 PM EDT on August 23, 2005
I think the BAMM model is gonna be correct like always with these undeveloped systems. It will hit the keys and just skim S.FL and go into the Gulf and grow into an Andrew like midget storm...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
130. weatherguy03
7:09 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Anyone have map of Bermuda..I am bad with geography..lol..Where is Long Island?..Not NY..lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
129. lefty420
7:10 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
no its been almostt 10 hrs since i had those eggs lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
128. caneforecaster
7:09 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
lool, lefty you're always eating. =)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
127. lefty420
7:07 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
yes i have i would have done that but i ma finishing my sandwich. gotta eat ya know
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
126. caneforecaster
7:06 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
ah, well there it is lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
125. caneforecaster
7:05 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
and I'm assuming you have read the Special Disturbance Statement issued by the NHC, yes?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
124. tampawx
7:05 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
000
WONT41 KNHC 231837
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...TWELFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND 35 MPH.
ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AT 5 PM EDT.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
123. lefty420
7:04 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
lol td 12 has formed, advisories will be issued at 5pm. winds 35mph


not sure where the llc is we had a nice discussion about that earlier but my best guess is just north of cuba in the big blob of convection. still aint got no good microwave images
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
122. mybahamas
3:04 PM EDT on August 23, 2005
Someone on Alec's blog said that Weather Channel is saying that it formed south of Long Island in The Bahamas. That's further north than any of us were really looking at :( We in the Northern Bahamas will probably be on Tropical Storm watch/warning soon :( :( :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
121. caneforecaster
7:03 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
I wouldn't worry too much about Cuba. None of the models show it passing over Cuba, and the terrain over Cuba is not very mountainous. If it were Hispaniola it were interacting with that would bother me a bit more. ; )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
120. lefty420
7:00 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
sorry guys i am back. was eating my sandwich
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
119. evolution
3:00 PM EDT on August 23, 2005
i don't think it's td 12 yet. it looks to be having some troubles with cuba at the moment. what about this run to the NW most of the models predict? It's definately going w or wnw right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
118. caneforecaster
6:59 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
hey I didn't read any of these....can you identify where the LLC is forming? I have two areas I'm looking at but I'm not sure which one it is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
117. 147257
06:58 PM GMT op 23 Augustus, 2005
TD 12 first see and then believe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
116. newinfl
6:56 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
lefty, weatherguy,stormtop/junkie where are yal. waiting on yal's input.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
115. IKE
6:55 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
TD 12 has form according to The Weather Channel.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
114. KShurricane
6:28 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
It looks like 10 is really picking up steam. I'd say it will go through the straits, graze Key West as a tropical storm, and hit somewhere between New Orleans and Houston as a cat 3 maybe 4. As a side note, does anyone else find it odd that SHIPS on this website is intensifying Jose up towards hurricane strength in the middle of Mexico? Someone at NHC must have opened an e-mail with a virus.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
113. softballguy
6:45 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
not sure about blow uo south east of hispanola. Think it is troopical moisture trying to feed into td 12.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
112. StormJunkie
6:42 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
The Ukmet has the thing moving SW in the Gulf? HUH?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
111. Undertaker
6:42 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
110. LADobeLady
6:40 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
I posted on another blog about the Ants...

Yesterday, at my son's football practice the field was literally infested with ants. I had to move 3 times to find an ant free zone. In 30 years of living here I have never seen ants like this before.

Maybe there was some truth in the old mans saying about the ants and hurricanes...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
109. Undertaker
6:40 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Could someone please answer my quetsion below.


Hey weather people, the cluster of clouds South East of Hispaniola, is that any thing to worry about in the next few days, because that wasn't there this morning so I am wondering where it came from. Could anything come of it. Here is the link to what I am talking about.Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
108. Zeenster
6:39 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Here's a link from the WU tropical/hurricane page

Link

This will give you the Vortex message from the Hurricane Hunter plane. There's a section on how to decode these messages on the WU tropical/hurricane page if you've never done it before.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
107. Dragoon
6:40 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Yep, special disturbance statement is out..

Looks like they're going to call it TD 12.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
106. sfwatcher
6:38 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
They're going to call it TD12, I guess it helps their predictions for the number of storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
105. softballguy
6:36 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
zeenster, where might I find some info on the recon?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
104. tornadoty
6:29 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
That is interesting. It DOES look like it MIGHT have a circulation, but that's just me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
103. Zeenster
6:30 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Recon is in guys - looks like a depression to me. Now all they have to do is have their argument over whether to call it TD 10 again or TD 12....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
102. weatherguy03
6:30 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Yeah I would love a few days of rainy cloudy breezy weather. Anything but Heat Indexes around 105 and no breeze. But finally today we have real sea breeze, SE at 15mph. Finally alittle relief. But I would love a few days of clouds and rain..lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
101. sfwatcher
6:28 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Thanks weatherguy-

We need rain but not 2004 again; I have enough practice with my shutters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
100. Undertaker
6:23 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Hey weather people, the cluster of clouds South East of Hispaniola, is that any thing to worry about in the next few days, because that wasn't there this morning so I am wondering where it came from. Could anything come of it. Here is the link to what I am talking about.Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
99. lefty420
6:27 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
lol dunno bout the new circulation waiting for new microwave imagery myself but i thought i saw that possibly happening in latest ir loops but we will see. she will be like ireene and probly not really develop till after she starts to recurve
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
98. weatherguy03
6:23 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
I think Florida will see breezy, rainy condtions this weekend. At least here in North Florida on the coast, almost like a Noreaster type situation. If this storm goes as planned.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
97. tornadoty
6:21 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Hey Lefty-
Is the wave in the central Atlantic forming a new circulation under the convection now that the original one is displaced far W of the convection, or is that just me? The T-number on it is 1.5, and I think that the NHC starts issuing advisories at 2.0. It's close to being classified, and the best part is, it is forecast to turn far from land :-).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96. newinfl
6:22 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
when will we here from the recon flight?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95. lefty420
6:20 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
dunno,to early to tell,might just be some gusty winds and rain cause i think the real intensification won't happen till she hits the gulf and i am not all that confident she will recurve. tx or la is my best bet but who knows
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 145 - 95

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

Recent Posts

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Labrador ice