A new name for the National Hurricane Center?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:23 PM GMT on May 18, 2007

Administrators at the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) are making moves to promote their "Corporate Identity" by renaming the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service, according to an article published yesterday in the Miami Herald. The new organizations would be called the "NOAA Hurricane Center" and the "NOAA Weather Service". The proposed changes are being vigorously opposed by new NHC director Bill Proenza, who said, "what's happening is scary."

The issue at hand is money. Everyone has heard of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the National Weather Service (NWS), but the public is not that familiar with their parent organization, NOAA--part of the U.S. Department of Commerce. By taking over the name of two of the government's most visible, well performing, and trusted organizations, NOAA wants to position themselves to take credit for the fantastic job these organizations do. The result, they hope, will be increased funding for NOAA in the future, thanks to increased name brand recognition. "If NOAA achieves a strong presence in the eyes of the people who use its varied services, the agency will be more successful in budget matters," said Anson Franklin, NOAA's director of communications.

The problem with this is that there are no guarantees that increased funding for NOAA will result in a bump in funding for NHC or NWS. For example, NOAA has an annual budget of over $4 billion, and NHC's budget is just $6.3 million. With NHC losing its identity, its funding may become diluted by NOAA, and will have to fight harder for dollars. Another problem is that the public, who like and trust the NWS and NWS brands, may see the change as an attempt by NOAA bureaucrats to take unwarranted credit for what these organizations do. In addition, it will cost plenty to change the names of these organizations, which may be viewed as a waste of taxpayers' money.

Proenza also complained that NOAA is spending between $1.5 million and $4 million on a "bogus" 200-year NOAA anniversary celebration (NOAA was founded in 1970, although some of its component organizations are 200 years old). I do believe that NOAA has a name recognition problem, and that it needs to spend some public relations money to get their name more recognized by the public. Public relations campaigns are essential for any organization to succeed in today's world. However, I think NOAA is going about their public relations campaign the wrong way. The amount being spent on the 200-year anniversary celebration is excessive, given NOAA's stinginess in funding important hurricane research. Furthermore, NOAA should leave the names of the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service alone. Departments of NOAA should be named, recognized, and funded based on their individual missions and function, not based on those of their parent organization. NHC and NWS have worked hard to earn their name recognition, and it would be wrong for NOAA to change their names.

NOAA has made a web page available for the public to see the proposed changes to its web pages that would result from its reorganization. You can comment on the proposed changes until June 13.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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291. hurricane23
11:01 EDT le 19 mai 2007
Posted By: catastropheadjuster at 11:01 EDT le 19 mai 2007. (hide)
H23: The map u put up with the circle on it, I'm just wondering what do you mean a big plus? I'm just sitting back lurking and just trying to understand what you guys are saying.
Sheri.

Sheri that is the MJO which in easy terms creates a more favorable invironment for tropical cyclone formation.The green lines are the ones to look for if your looking for development and brown usually mean low chances for development.

Also did you get my email from a few days ago??
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290. Ermuleto
3:00 PM GMT on Mayo 19, 2007
Typhoon YUTU - Cat. 2 -


90 kts - 954 mb


Link

Link 2


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289. catastropheadjuster
2:58 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
H23: The map u put up with the circle on it, I'm just wondering what do you mean a big plus? I'm just sitting back lurking and just trying to understand what you guys are saying.
Sheri
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288. Jedkins
2:54 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
Posted By: StormW at 11:20 AM GMT on May 19, 2007.

Posted By: Jedkins at 4:25 AM GMT on May 19, 2007.

who forecasted the low to STAY off the New England coast when nobody else forecasted it?


Ya that was me, maybe y'all should listen to others ideas a little more, instead of just your own over hyped oppinions.

Its easy just to think our own forecasts are the best, but that when you fail as a forecaster, become blinded, and become less accurate while thinking otherwise.

I admit to being wrong sometimes which I have been, but over all, my accuaracy is high due to the fact I pay attention that my way of looking at the forecast may not be quite that accurate, which in the long run, helps your forecasting ability.

You haven't been to my blog...have you? They did take some good damage in Westhcester NY. Go ahead...tell me my synopsis on my blog is totally wrong.




Actually that damage had nothing to due with the coastal low, the thing stayed off the coast and fell part, thats like saying a hurricane hit Florida because "damage was done" in the miami area, but in reality, that damage was from a completey different cause being from seabreeze thunderstorms, while the hurricane curves away offshore.

Sorry stormW, but your talking to somone who knows their stuff, unfortunately though you don't, either that or your just so stuck in the head about your forecast that youmanage to say yours was right even though only doing so makes you look very bad.
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287. kmanislander
2:56 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
anyway so long for now
time for Saturday errands
will check back in later
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285. hurricane23
10:54 EDT le 19 mai 2007
A big plus here...

mjo
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284. kmanislander
2:50 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
Here is Lenny from 1999

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283. kmanislander
2:38 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
Posted By: leftovers at 2:38 PM GMT on May 19, 2007.

Talkin about a active early season. A possible B forming? The reason I am posting is since we are entering a new age of weather with GW should we rely on climatology less? Will we see some unusual tracks? Super CVers.


Unusual tracks can happen in any year, like the hurricane that went from W to E through the Caribbean some years ago. Climatology is only one factor to look at when trying to determine what a weather system may or may not do but over many decades certain trends tend not to change much at all and general storm track patterns are one.
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281. kmanislander
2:32 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
SJ

Climatology says a more N than W movement in the early and late season.May/June tend to be like Oct/Nov for system tracks. Start to the S and move NW to NNW then ENE
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280. StormJunkie
2:28 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
Thanks kman...I will be suprised if it drops off, but I do agree that it could. Some models even seem to hint at that a little. Not sure though. On visable you can see the shear kicking to the N. Also question if it would go N or W. Seems models are kinda split on this.
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279. catastropheadjuster
2:27 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
Good Morning: SJ & H23 and everyone else
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278. kmanislander
2:28 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
stormpetrol

I posted a comment to you but it has not shown. Sorry for not replying last night. I got up from the computer thinking I was coming back on but had to run out.
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277. kmanislander
2:25 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
SJ

The further N you go this time of year the stronger the shear is likely to be. Having said that it is not out of the realms of possibility that it could slack off enough to permit a minimal strength system. We have had hurricanes develop on the 1st June which is not far away.
The one thing about shear is that conditions can and do transition very quickly at times ( within 12 hrs sometimes )
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276. stormpetrol
2:15 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
DO I see an impressive spin in the SW Caribbean for the first time, lots of convection and also a hint of some slight organization in my opinion.We'll see what happens.
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275. StormJunkie
2:20 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
Shear could relax right there, but could it really relax to the N of it? Everything I have seen shows a pretty robust area of shear everywhere to the N of the area?
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274. kmanislander
2:20 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
H23

Exactly what I was saying. thanks
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273. hurricane23
10:19 AM EDT on May 19, 2007
Worth watching for persistence with thunderstorm activity as this area is prime for early development.
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272. kmanislander
2:18 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:17 PM GMT on May 19, 2007.

That drift would put it that much closer to the shear though kman.

True, but also closer to the heaviest convection that is firing. With a high trying to build the shear could relax reasonably quickly
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271. IKE
9:18 AM CDT on May 19, 2007
Key West discussion thinks the GFS is out to lunch...

"Forecast...
the GFS model is currently not reliable through parts of the
forecast period due to the model's erratic...and run-to-run
inconsistent...development of surface low pressure areas anywhere
from the northwest Caribbean to Cuba and the Florida Keys to the Bahamas.
The latest GFS run now has a sudden low formation over the Bahamas
Sunday...develops it east of the Bahamas Monday...and eventually
drives it back west over the Bahamas to Florida in a weakened state
late this week. This pattern now disrupts the pressure gradient that
it earlier had forecast to bring breezy conditions to the Keys."
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270. hurricane23
10:18 AM EDT on May 19, 2007
GFS-with model over lay.

fff
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269. StormJunkie
2:16 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
That drift would put it that much closer to the shear though kman.
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268. kmanislander
2:16 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
Caribbean Sea...
broad upper level ridge covers the Caribbean advecting tropical
moisture across the W Caribbean. Embedded within this flow is a
surface trough extending from 21n82w S to 1009 mb low off the
coast of Panama near 11n79w.

( from the 8:05 discussion )
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267. kmanislander
2:12 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
hurricane2007

There has been a surface low there for the past two days. What the QS pass shows is that it is nearer to 13N 81W than the 11n 79W position given in the 8:05 discussion. If I am correct it would mean a NW motion for the low since yesterday morning but at a mere drift
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266. IKE
9:06 AM CDT on May 19, 2007
Posted By: StormW at 8:26 AM CDT on May 19, 2007.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 1:18 PM GMT on May 19, 2007.

Guys according to the GFS in the next week or two shear is forcasted to dramatically drop to very low levels.

Check this out!Still shocked looking at this but then again the GFS could be wrong.

Watch what begins to happen as of the 27th of may...


I noticed that too. Looks like an easterly wave moves across south Florida...then into the eastern GOM next week. Then the end of next week another low(tropical?) moves up into the eastern GOM from the Caribbean. Ugh!
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265. Patrap
9:08 AM CDT on May 19, 2007
Publicity campaign for NOAA debated
Critics contend hurricane center deserves more money


By Brian Skoloff,
Associated Press

West Palm Beach, Fla. | The federal government is spending millions of dollars on a publicity campaign while its hurricane forecasters are struggling with budget cuts, the National Hurricane Center's director said Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is spending up to $4 million to publicize a 200th anniversary celebration, said Bill Proenza, who heads the hurricane center, part of the National Weather Service, which is a NOAA agency. At the same time, it has cut $700,000 from hurricane research, he said.

"No question about it, it is not justified. It is using appropriated funds for self-promotion," Proenza said.

NOAA spokesman Anson Franklin said the agency is only spending about $1.5 million on the campaign over two years.

He said it is justified to publicize the agency's mission to a public that is often unaware of its involvement in weather prediction and forecasting.

"It's part of our responsibility to tell the American people what we do," Franklin said. "It's inaccurate and unfair to just characterize this as some sort of self-celebration."

Proenza has been critical of NOAA since taking over the post in January.

He says millions of dollars in new funding is needed for expanded research and storm forecasting. One immediate concern is the "QuikScat" weather satellite, which lets forecasters measure such basics as wind speed and direction. Proenza said the satellite could fail anytime, degrading storm prediction capabilities, and there are no plans to replace it.

Franklin said NOAA is considering several options if the satellite fails, including outfitting other satellites with similar technology. Overall, he said, NOAA spends $300 million of its $4 billion annual budget on hurricane forecasting and research.

NOAA is also considering name changes for the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service, adding its own logo to both entities. NOAA officials say it is about broadening the agency's name recognition as a whole and establishing an identity.

However, Proenza fears the move could dilute funding to individual agencies within NOAA and will confuse the American public.
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264. hurricane2007
2:07 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
there is a circulation forming.

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263. hurricane23
10:00 AM EDT on May 19, 2007
Convection continues to pop down there it will interesting to see if it persists.
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262. Thunderstorm2
10:02 AM EDT on May 19, 2007
G'Morning SJ
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261. Tazmanian
2:01 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
TexasRiverRat nop they do not


be back around 8pm tonight in tell then have a vary good day
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260. TexasRiverRat
1:57 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
good mornin SJ
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259. TexasRiverRat
1:52 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
I dont know Taz but all that rain and dry soil doesnt mix very well in those hills out there.
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258. Tazmanian
1:48 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
: StormJunkie Morning

TexasRiverRat yes we do need a TS it dry out her in ca
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257. StormJunkie
1:42 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
Morning TS2, Taz, STL and TRR.

There is some good MJO information here.

Also find that link and more here.
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256. TexasRiverRat
1:44 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
All you need Taz is a TS to come and stall and do a loopty loo.
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255. Thunderstorm2
9:38 AM EDT on May 19, 2007
Hey guys
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254. Tazmanian
1:39 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
i wish FL had a TS allison so they can get 40" of rain
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253. TexasRiverRat
1:38 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
We seem to get a lot of deluges here around the houston area. A good flood every couple of years. Either a tropical one or a stalled front, or a parked Low that just trains over and over.
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252. Patrap
8:36 AM CDT on May 19, 2007
Tropical Storm Allison was the most costly tropical storm in U.S. history. While the ... provided by the Service Hydrologist at WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge. ...Link
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250. TexasRiverRat
1:36 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
Look at them SST's for katrina it was boiling.
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249. hurricane23
9:34 AM EDT on May 19, 2007
Over 40 inches of rain fell in texas...
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248. Patrap
8:34 AM CDT on May 19, 2007
SSTs and late & mid season storms have the best potential for taking advantage of the potential. Like these two comparisons. Ivan..Link..and SSts with Katrina..and track Link
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247. TexasRiverRat
1:35 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
Every time it rains in Houston you hear about Allison!
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246. hurricane23
9:32 AM EDT on May 19, 2007
Impacts.....

Any tropical system can cause serious damage to a communite look at what TS allison did with those incredible rains.
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245. TexasRiverRat
1:31 PM GMT on May 19, 2007
ALLISON AHHH!!!!!!
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244. Patrap
8:30 AM CDT on May 19, 2007
Compare Bills Formation area..to this one in 05.Cindy Link Then look at the track and ..well. Climatology has the biggest role in the tropics,...in long range forecasting. I stay away from it and focus on impacts.
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243. Patrap
8:28 AM CDT on May 19, 2007
Heres a good example of the way I look at things..Heres TS Bill in 03.Link
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242. hurricane23
9:29 AM EDT on May 19, 2007
Covection is scattered in nature but if it hangs around something may try to pop up.

ggg
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241. Patrap
8:26 AM CDT on May 19, 2007
The pulse is important.But the synoptic pattern for Genesis needs to be in place as well. Only time and observation is willing to show what happens. All else is smoke and mirrors. Climatology is the best observer.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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